2018 Presidential Election
- Thread starter Marky Bunny
- Start date
RIP Walter Mondale. A great Vice President and a great man. Shame he never got the chance to be President. May he rest in peace 
Yes. He was the last OTL vice president (Reagan's VP ITTL was George P. Bush), but he's been dead for nearly three decades ITTL.
Tuesday, April 20th, 2021
Republicans win Louisiana special election
Republicans have won the first special election of the 117th Congress, as the contest for Louisiana's third congressional district has been declared a victory for GOP candidate Julie Bernard.
The race was called to replace the late Thomas Evers (R), who passed away in February after 38 years in Congress. The district, which covers the southwestern portion of Louisiana, is very conservative, and Bernard, a state representative from the city of Lafayette, defeated five other challengers in the March primary to win the Republican nomination.
In the primary, Bernard stressed her opposition to President Seaborn and promised to be a more effective roadblock to his agenda than her opponents, such as retired St. Landry Parish sheriff Cole Bullard, who gained media notoriety for running ads of himself shooting copies of gun control legislation the president proposed (both during his presidency and previously as a United States senator). Bullard, who finished in third, served only one term as sheriff, declining to run for re-election after local media ran an exposé detailing systematic corruption during his term.
In the general election, Bernard defeated former state senator Gary Guillory (D) and activist Brandon Ledoux (Libertarian) by a wide margin, garnering 70 percent of the vote. She will be the first woman to represent the third district.
Result of the US House Special Election for Louisiana's Third District
Julie Bernard (R): 70.63%
Gary Guillory (D): 27.92%
Brandon Ledoux (L): 1.45%
Julie Bernard (R): 70.63%
Gary Guillory (D): 27.92%
Brandon Ledoux (L): 1.45%
NYC Mayoral Race Preview
April 20, 2021
The race to elect New York City's next mayor is heating up. With incumbent Richard Corey declining to run for a third term, the Democratic nomination is wide open. Although two Republicans have been elected mayor this century, the local Republican Party has fallen into dire straits over the last decade. Mayor Corey won with 65% of the vote in 2017, and is likely that the Democratic nominee will once again be a shoe-in for the mayoralty. As such, the Democratic primary is the main focus of election watchers.
Comptroller Gerald Kim has been the favorite for the nomination for some time now. Although Corey was once expected to run for a third term after his resounding victory in 2017 and high approval ratings, his numbers began to fall due to a spat with Albany over transit funding and control of the MTA, a worsening transit system, and his refusal to take on marijuana reform despite its increasing popularity in the city. Gerald Kim emerged on the popular side of these issues, increasing his prospects and breaking the once cordial relationship he had with the mayor. Corey was also subject to some ridicule after shaving his trademark facial hair. Last June, Corey announced his decision not to seek a third term, and Kim announced his campaign three weeks later.
The field became crowded not long after, with Bronx Borough President Manny Garcia, City Councilman Marvin Jolly being two of the main candidates to join at that time. In recent months, they have been joined by Emilia Castillo, president of the New York Development Foundation, and community activist Inara Nussbaum. But by far the biggest contender to join was the latest, former Congressman Eli Rosen, who suddenly had a great deal of time on his hands after losing re-election to New York's 11th district lost November.
Rosen, a Staten Island native and the first Qumar veteran elected to Congress, had been elected to the seat to fill the vacancy caused by the appointment of long time holder Mark Richardson to be Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. With Richardson's departure, it was expected that Democrats would have a tough time finding a candidate who would be able to replicate his winning formula in this tough, gerrymandered district. Although Rosen won the special election, he lost the general election in 2020, in large part due to increased turnout from a standard year election negating the coalition he had built in the special.
Despite this, he believes he is the right candidate for mayor, proclaiming his ability to appeal to all New Yorkers, not just those who always vote for Democrats. By tapping into otherwise unmotivated or disinterested voters in this off year election, Rosen may have enough support to topple Gerald Kim. He saw a massive boom in the polls upon entering the race, no doubt thanks to his high name recognition as a former member of Congress, something the other non-Kim candidates sorely lack. Recent polls show Kim hovering in the mid-to-high 30s, with Rosen in the 25% range and all other candidates at 10% or lower.
Rosen has firmly occupied the moderate lane in the primary, receiving endorsements from major personages such as former Mayors Hoffman and Paccoli, Congressman Nathan Petrelli. Meanwhile, Kim is leading the way with a progressive agenda, running on his long term issues of affordable housing, rezoning, and increased funding for public transportation. He has been endorsed by Congresswoman Naomi Herrera Rodriguez, Queens Borough President Mandy Thompson, and prosecutor Jean-Pierre Roquefort, who is currently running for New York District Attorney. Kim has also been endorsed by many key unions. Additionally, Kim is rumored to have the support of Governor Hakeem El-Amin, although there is no confirmation of this as the governor wishes remain neutral until the primary is over. Regardless, Kim has been citing his friendship with the governor as a reason to vote for him, emphasizing the need to reduce friction between state and local government.
There is also a diverse collection of candidates for the Republican nomination. The most likely candidate is television personality and legal advisor for the NYPD Andrea Silverstein. Her opponents are retired NYPD Captain John D. Kelly, businessman Arnoldo Mancini, dentist Charles Copeland, and comedian and self declared "hipster communist provocateur" Conner Sparks. Sparks, a highly controversial internet personality, entered the race as a Republican in order to harangue other Republicans at the debates and gain attention for his new podcast Leftnuts.
The Democratic and Republican primaries will be held on June 22, 2021.
April 20, 2021
The race to elect New York City's next mayor is heating up. With incumbent Richard Corey declining to run for a third term, the Democratic nomination is wide open. Although two Republicans have been elected mayor this century, the local Republican Party has fallen into dire straits over the last decade. Mayor Corey won with 65% of the vote in 2017, and is likely that the Democratic nominee will once again be a shoe-in for the mayoralty. As such, the Democratic primary is the main focus of election watchers.
Comptroller Gerald Kim has been the favorite for the nomination for some time now. Although Corey was once expected to run for a third term after his resounding victory in 2017 and high approval ratings, his numbers began to fall due to a spat with Albany over transit funding and control of the MTA, a worsening transit system, and his refusal to take on marijuana reform despite its increasing popularity in the city. Gerald Kim emerged on the popular side of these issues, increasing his prospects and breaking the once cordial relationship he had with the mayor. Corey was also subject to some ridicule after shaving his trademark facial hair. Last June, Corey announced his decision not to seek a third term, and Kim announced his campaign three weeks later.
The field became crowded not long after, with Bronx Borough President Manny Garcia, City Councilman Marvin Jolly being two of the main candidates to join at that time. In recent months, they have been joined by Emilia Castillo, president of the New York Development Foundation, and community activist Inara Nussbaum. But by far the biggest contender to join was the latest, former Congressman Eli Rosen, who suddenly had a great deal of time on his hands after losing re-election to New York's 11th district lost November.
Rosen, a Staten Island native and the first Qumar veteran elected to Congress, had been elected to the seat to fill the vacancy caused by the appointment of long time holder Mark Richardson to be Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. With Richardson's departure, it was expected that Democrats would have a tough time finding a candidate who would be able to replicate his winning formula in this tough, gerrymandered district. Although Rosen won the special election, he lost the general election in 2020, in large part due to increased turnout from a standard year election negating the coalition he had built in the special.
Despite this, he believes he is the right candidate for mayor, proclaiming his ability to appeal to all New Yorkers, not just those who always vote for Democrats. By tapping into otherwise unmotivated or disinterested voters in this off year election, Rosen may have enough support to topple Gerald Kim. He saw a massive boom in the polls upon entering the race, no doubt thanks to his high name recognition as a former member of Congress, something the other non-Kim candidates sorely lack. Recent polls show Kim hovering in the mid-to-high 30s, with Rosen in the 25% range and all other candidates at 10% or lower.
Rosen has firmly occupied the moderate lane in the primary, receiving endorsements from major personages such as former Mayors Hoffman and Paccoli, Congressman Nathan Petrelli. Meanwhile, Kim is leading the way with a progressive agenda, running on his long term issues of affordable housing, rezoning, and increased funding for public transportation. He has been endorsed by Congresswoman Naomi Herrera Rodriguez, Queens Borough President Mandy Thompson, and prosecutor Jean-Pierre Roquefort, who is currently running for New York District Attorney. Kim has also been endorsed by many key unions. Additionally, Kim is rumored to have the support of Governor Hakeem El-Amin, although there is no confirmation of this as the governor wishes remain neutral until the primary is over. Regardless, Kim has been citing his friendship with the governor as a reason to vote for him, emphasizing the need to reduce friction between state and local government.
There is also a diverse collection of candidates for the Republican nomination. The most likely candidate is television personality and legal advisor for the NYPD Andrea Silverstein. Her opponents are retired NYPD Captain John D. Kelly, businessman Arnoldo Mancini, dentist Charles Copeland, and comedian and self declared "hipster communist provocateur" Conner Sparks. Sparks, a highly controversial internet personality, entered the race as a Republican in order to harangue other Republicans at the debates and gain attention for his new podcast Leftnuts.
The Democratic and Republican primaries will be held on June 22, 2021.
Sunday April 25th 2021
A special Series: The 2022 Presidential Contenders
Number Five: Ben Laurion
Benjamin Eugene Laurion
Born June 26th, 1970
A member of the Republican party, he is the former Attorney General of Michigan before being elected Governor of Michigan in 2014 and was re-elected in 2018. He is also a military veteran having served as a JAG lawyer between 1996 and 2015.
In virtually all policy areas, he is regarded as a a “model conservative” but he has managed to present those policies in a moderate and appealing way. He is opposed to all abortion, without exception for rape or incest. Regarding his stance on abortion, he has stated: "I don't apologize for it, but I am not obsessed with it." During his election campaign for Attorney General in 2010 he campaigned on a "tough-on-crime" platform. He has also advocated for the privatization of prisons. He signed a "No Climate Tax" pledge promising not to support any legislation that would raise taxes to combat climate change. He proposed funding cuts for clean energy and other environmental programs, and he has also proposed giving many powers of the Environmental Protection Agency to the states. In his first weeks as Governor he signed right-to-work legislation he said would contribute to economic growth.
He was born in Howell, Michigan, to Robert (1940) and Julie (Marshall) (1938-2017), he is the youngest of four children, with two sisters and one brother. His father’s parents are of French-Canadian descent. He attended Howell High School graduating in 1988 before enrolling at Lansing Community College graduating in 1992. Between 1992 and 1993 he took a gap year working in a bar before he enrolled at the University of Michigan Law School, the law school of the University of Michigan, in Ann Arbor in 1993. In 1996 he became a JAG lawyer in the United States Army and was assigned to the 7th Infantry Division with the initial rank of second lieutenant. He served initially between 1996 and 2002 reaching the rank of lieutenant colonel and returned to civilian life although remained as a reservist he practised law privately between 2002 and 2004.
In 2004 he was elected Livingston County prosecutor and was re-elected in 2008. In 2010 with the incumbent Democratic Attorney General of the state term-limited he ran for the post and defeated the Democratic candidate Phil Grayson a Genesee County Prosecutor polling 55.59% to 44.41% in which was regarded as an upset victory. As Attorney General in 2011 he made a national name for himself when he prosecuted two students from his own former High School, Howell High, who had ran a “hate campaign” against a fellow pupil who was mixed race, including threats, smashing the windows of his house, sending abusive phone calls and text messages. The same students had also previously shown support for the KKK, Howell had the reputation of being associated with them due to White Supremacist leader Robert E. Miles, who held KKK gatherings on his farm just north of the city. Although Miles had died in 1992, he still much support in the area.
In 2013 with his profile now raised, he announced that he would be running for Michigan Governor. Incumbent Democratic Governor Paula Sancho who had replaced Governor John Brennnan following a re-call election because of an alleged misuse of state funds to pay off Unions to stop them from striking. Sancho had done a deal with the Unions in 2012 after taking over but was attacked for her handling of the affair, calling it a “dodgy deal”. He defeated Sancho by 61% to 39%, a fact all the more remarkable that on the same day, the state voted Democratic at the Presidential level with Jimmy Fitzsimmons winning with a 7.71% margin over President Walken, he outperformed Walken in the state by almost 15%. Once he became Governor in January 2015 he resigned his Army commission. In 2018 he faced a tougher campaign but won re-election by defeating State Senator Tyler Adams 53.46% to 46.54% a comfortable 6.92% margin, and once again he outperformed the Republican Presidential ticket in the state, this time by 8.18% as the state went to the Democratic candidate for a second straight election.
Being term-limited in 2022, he decided to seek the Republican Presidential nomination announcing he decision first by a tweet, then at a rally nine hours later in Lansing, Michigan on Saturday March 20th, 2021.
He is married to Caroline Hathaway, who he met whilst working at a bar during his gap year in 1992. They married in 1995 and have five children, three boys and two girls. Ben jnr (born in 1996), Noah (born in 1999), Rachel (born in 2003), Sophie (born in 2005) and Charlie (born in 2008). He speaks fluent French, German, Spanish and Arabic. He Is a black belt in three martial arts: American Kenpo, Shotokan Karate, and Tang Soo Do. He is an experienced mountain climber having learnt it during his Army service. He is also an avid comic book fan and owns several first edition “Batman” and “Superman” comic books.
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Sunday, April 25th 2021
French election results: Leveque advances to run-off with Martin
Paris — Prime Minister Benoît Martin of the center-left Socialist Party will face off against far-right nationalist Christine Leveque of the National Front in a runoff election to be the country's president, according to exit polls.
French media has reported that Martin got the most votes in a crowded contest to replace president Giselle Trenier, pulling in an estimated 24 percent of the vote. Leveque came in a close second with an estimated 22 percent of the vote. Three other candidates are expected to clear ten percent of the vote: center-right former prime minister Bernard Trondeau (18 percent), centrist Bruno Servien (16 percent) and communist Jacques Dumont (11 percent).
Immigration and the economy were the most important issues to French voters, according to opinion polling. The handling of both by Trenier, who has served as president since 2011, likely played a role in the results of the first round: a substantial number of French voters oppose the austerity measures her party instituted between 2011 and 2018, when the Socialists won a majority in the National Assembly, and right-wing voters have expressed dissatisfaction with her support for immigration and the European Union. Similarly up for criticism was Trenier's dispatch of French combat forces to Chad after the toppling of that country's government earlier this month. French presidents have repeatedly intervened militarily in France's former African colonies, but none has ordered such a large intervention so close to the end of their term. Trenier's approval rating, which was reported as 24 percent, is the lowest for an outgoing president in French history.
Opinion polling taken before the first round of voting suggests that Martin will handily defeat Leveque. Servien has already called on his supporters to vote for Martin in the second round, saying a Leveque victory would destabilize both France and the European Union. On social media, activists from the center-right to the far left have begun calls for a "republican front" against the National Front, similar to the one that defeated Leveque's father Christophe when he reached the second round of the 2001 presidential election.
<British Raj (1858 - 1947) - Republic of India (1947 - ) >
Capital: New Delhi
Official Languages: English, Hindi
Ethnic groups: Ethnic Groups of India
Government: Federal parliamentary constitutional republic
Population: 1,352,642,280 (2018 estimate)
Currency: Indian rupee (₹)
President: Haiya Prabhakar
Prime Minister: Bijan Advani
Legislature: Lok Sabha
History:
... although his reputation as a relentless litigator for government corruption faced a severe reckoning in 1989. The Mjollnir Scandal would shred Rajiv Ghandi's cabinet and force a new election one in which INC dominance over the Lok Sabha was far from certain.
The election results of the 9th Lok Sabha saw the rise of a coalition of the Janata Dal Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party under the able leadership of Hansraj Gangaram Dharashiokar, a party leader from Chennai, and a more unlikely coalition leader couldn't be imagined. Dharashiokar was the MP of Lucknow but due to his wife's family (board members at Kotak-Singh Bank) he was the party chairman for all of Uttar Pradesh as well. From all who knew him he was remarkably laid back seen frequently about town playing a sitar, but also a cunning politician who had a knack for uniting people for a common interest, and most importantly funding elections all over the subcontinent. He began the congressional pledge, which would be enumerated into the law code during his administration ensuring that the votes and party trading would not occur in the new Parliament. As soon as the elections concluded he was elected Prime Minister.
After the rest of the world breathed a sigh of relief at an orderly transition of power in the world's largest democracy, Prime Minister Dharashiokar used his electoral mandate to begin wide-scale privatization of large national industries and encouraged several banking and financial reforms to expand the economy. Taking a page from FDR's New Deal, large infrastructure projects were begun and soon India was considered a rising economic power, one in which multiple Western companies were seeking out to do business with. He was also not afraid to seek redress for past injuries, and a state visit from Owen Lassiter had to be delayed when word was received that Dharashiokar would bring up Cultico for the Haryana disaster and Indian business regulations being reformed to prevent such a disaster from ever occuring, to the point that the matter was an ongoing diplomatic crisis for Lassiter. The visit did happen two months delayed but Dharashiokar used the visit and discussion to push business regulation legislation, a popular move with the electorate in the upcoming 10th Lok Sabha.
The results of the 10th Lok Sabha saw the shattering of the Janata Dal, as Dharashiokar was able to gain enough minor party support (although Janata Dal loyalists would posit that marginal races for them went to well funded third party seats) to be able to make the Bharatiya Janata Party. For the next year and a half Dharashiokar's government would be popular and effective, it was all the more tragic when Hansraj Gangaram Dharashiokar succumbed to an aneurysm on May 5, 1994.
Dharashiokar's successor was Vijay Prajapati, and was kept in check by Dharashiokar during his administration. Prajapati was paranoid, prone to gaffes, and viewed politics as simple transactions. His faction of the BJP tried to undo many of Dharashiokar's successes but ultimately wasted much of his political capital, although he was successful in undoing the congressional pledge. After legislation ground to a halt he ordered snap elections in the hope of gaining a renewed majority.... Suffice to say he did not. A divided administration and the onset of the Asian Economic Crisis and the 11th Lok Sabha elections brought the INC back to government.
Lal Nohamid was selected to be prime minister, and his first government he was, and admits as much in interviews post-retirement that he was in over his head during his first government , and was too beholden to larger influences in the party. Inheriting a government and economy in shambles he made peace with the Ghandi-Nehru faction within the INC, but by 1999 supported the hardliners efforts to take Kashmir. The Srinagar Conflict was in many ways more successful than anyone dreamed and an ongoing diplomatic disaster for the remainder of Nohamid’s first government. Surprising the rest of the world (and attracting the worry of China particularly) Nohamid’s mobilization in response to alleged Pakistani aggression in the city of Srinagar was unnoticed until some 300,000 troops entered Kashmir and began pressing west taking previously Pakistani claimed territories in the region. The conflict taking place from December 1999 to January 2000 is the most recent example of mountainous infantry movements and posed significant challenges for India’s Ministry of Defense, but no amount of preparation could offset morale losses of moving in the Kashmiri Winter. Soon after the conclusion of the conflict, Nohamid‘s support among the military fractured, and by 2001 a resurgent BJP under Reva Achari Dharashiokar returned the INC to opposition, and Nohamid, a humbler man began to slowly work on retaking the leadership, with book tours, charity events, philanthropy, and striking up friendships with India's power brokers. In a way it could be argued he campaigned from the moment he left office to be Prime Minister again for INC, working with the Gandhi-Nehru cohort of the party for support.
Reva Achari Dharashiokar was not her father, but she at the age of 37 did represent the rising political influence of her generation. The daughter of the former Prime Minister quickly managed to secure her power base in Utter Pradesh, and throughout Nohamid’s first government carefully picked her battles, driving a fine line between defending her father’s legacy and attacking Nohamid’s government. At the 12th Lok Sabha elections she succeeded in bringing BJP back into the majority. Daughter Dharashiokar as she was called by newspapers within India was a cagey political operator, and had the support of her mother's family however her bold economic plans, in particular a nuclear power development plan ran afoul after outliers of her own party left to join the opposition. Her eccentricities did her few favors as her chess hobby and a much criticized visit to the UK in 2002 saw her government fall, not in an election but simply bleeding off too many MPs. In 2004, due to a combination the Prajapati's revocation of the congressional pledge, delayed nuclear development plan and very coordinated opposition saw her face a vote of no confidence and Lal Nohamid to go from leader of the Opposition to Prime Minister outside of a general election. Although she retained leadership of the BJP until 2007 her time had passed, despite having a lock on women's votes her support fractured along ethnic lines which is how Nohamid returned to power, and Advani (then the Minister of Railways, Commerce and Industry, and Consumer Affairs) become the BJP's rising star.
Lal Nohamid was exultant as he had throughout Daughter Dharashiokar's government retained leadership of the INC. He had spent three and a half years pushing out rivals and centralizing the party's apparatus under himself. His ascendency to be Prime Minister came at a very faught time, as the hotly debated WTO summit of 2004, and the subsequent Brussels WTO Conference of 2004 had ramifications for global trade. While Dharashiokar had hoped to capitalize on the treaty's passing, the spoils would fall to Nohamid as securing thousands of JCN programming jobs managed to swing MPs to vote for the INC in a vote of no confidence. Dharashiokar was out, and Nohamid was back and seen as the only man who could unify the INC and satisfy the business interests of India. Ultimately Nohamid was unable to remove American sanctions on India from nuclear tests in the late 90s, and as such his support from the business community always demanded the one thing he could never provide, the end of the sanctions. The INC's failure to deliver on this key point would prove their undoing as after Nohamid's loss in the 2011 general election, he would retire from politics, leaving the INC adrift, and the sanctions remained. In would not be until 2008 that the sanctions would expire as Congress failed to renew them during the Santos Administration.
Bijan Advani was not like the previous BJP leaders, as he capitalized on ethnic divisions as a means of drumming up support for BJP. Since 2011 he has drawn the BJP in new directions, away from liberal economic policies of Dharashiokar's governments to a more nationalist swing, with a strong military support (although thankfully he stayed out of Qumar). Furthermore he was able to capitalize on the ten year nuclear development plan started over 6 years ago. After his landslide victory in 2016 he has pushed Pakistan more than ever since the Srinagar Conflict over Kashmir, and fiery speeches against what he calls "Muslim extremism" in Pakistan. The situation is not helped by Pakistan still having a coup government. Despite Advani's sour reputation abroad he is popular in India as the economy has done well, and Advani being the first Indian politician to truly master social media, something that his opponents within his own party and Indian National Congress have failed to capitalize on. His own environmental message is mixed as he has strictly kept the business regulations from the first Dharashiokar's government and carbon emissions of India has been reducing steadily.
>>>>>
Wikibox of India's Prime Ministers as graciously provided by @lord caedus
Cast
Dev Anand as Hansraj Gangaram Dharashiokar (new character)
Saeed Jaffrey as Vijay Prajapati (new character)
Shashi Kapoor as Lal Nohamid (new casting)
Padmini Kolhapure as Reva Achari Dharashiokar (new character)
Rajinikanth as Bijan Advani
Wednesday April 28th, 2021
Duke formally launches campaign with attack on "godless President Seaborn", asks his Daughter to "come back to me" and claims Governor Laurion is not an American
Former Oklahoma Senator Alan Duke formally launched his Presidential campaign today with a rally in Des Moines, Iowa. Duke declared he was running back in December, but he held off from a formal campaign launch until today. Early polls have given Duke an early in the state which will kick off the 2022 Presidential race with the Iowa Caucuses on January 11th next year.
The theme of Duke's campaign is "God, Family, Country" and he didn't hold back on his attacks against President Seaborn and the other Republicans in the race "President Seaborn has abandoned this country to the godless" was one of his opening lines "The American Family is under attack like never before, my own Daughter Beth was taken from me, brainwashed by those who believe in perverted notions such as same sex relationships, it is against the will of god, but I say now to Beth, if you can hear me, daddy and god still loves you, come back to me" but his speech ended in an outspoken attack on one of his fellow Republican candidates "Many say to me, you have to be nice to those who are also campaigning for the nomination, well I don't, I have to beat them" adding "I love my country, these United States of America, I think it is a shame, that one of the other leading candidates for the nomination is not even a proper American, he is a Canadian, and a French-Canadian at that, his first language is not even American, it's French" referring to Michigan Governor Ben Laurion whose Father is of French-Canadian descent.
The Crowd of around 3,000 lapped up the speech, but the hopes that Duke may have toned his style and approach following his 2014 Senate defeat seem to have be very misplaced. No-one yet from the Laurion campaign has yet responded to the speech.
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Wow. I am not sure that Bruce Willis, even at his Hudson Hawk wildness, is crazy enough to play this guy.
I always pictured Bruce Willis playing a general or maybe the CIA Director in The West Wing.
Did Reagan ever come out of his coma? Also, what is the status on first ladies pre 1987?
He did at some point, but he had suffered brain damage (he never realized he was no longer president) and remained out of public view until his death in 1992.
Well, like OTL, every First Lady before Rosalynn Carter is dead, as is Nancy Reagan.
We in the writing staff never really discussed whether Rosalynn is still alive like IOTL, but ITTL Jimmy died the day of D. Wire Newman's inauguration (it would be kind of awkward for the analogue to exist alongside the original).
Here are the Electoral College Votes by State for 2022 and the changes from 2018. They are as per the 2020 Census totals released this week.
I can't find if it has ever been discussed in thread, but my belief in PMs at the time was that he had passed away from a sudden illness, and that he was too ill to attend the Newman inauguration (and passed sometime that evening).
I also felt that his death may have caused some of the inaugural balls to be cancelled and cast a dark cloud over the Newman administration.
I believe the not-set-in-stone-but-headcanon reason was cancer with the rationale being that Carter's siblings and parents suffered and died from it IRL. Also for Mrs Ford and Mrs Reagan, perhaps just bump their passings up 10 years and when Mrs Carter passes, bump her's up ex post facto
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For those interested if you apply the new electoral college totals to 2018, it gives the Republicans 3 extra votes and the reduces the Dems by 3 votes. It would have left the electoral college result: 271 to 267 rather than the 274 to 264 result we did get.