Saturday, February 13th, 2021
International elections to watch in 2021
With the 2020 midterms in the rearview mirror and candidates already throwing their hats into the ring for the 2022 election, it's easy to forget that there are important elections going on this year. Although, not in the United States, with the exception of gubernatorial and legislative elections in Virginia and New Jersey.
Here are 11 non-American national elections that you should pay attention to in 2021:
Prime Minister Bijan Advani is planning on tying Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi's record by leading his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party to victory in a third election sometime in May. Nearly one billion Indians are eligible to vote in the upcoming elections for their country's lower house (the Lok Sabha), and like all previous elections in the world's largest democracy, the election will take place in stages. Seven groups of states will vote between the beginning of April and end of May, with the results planning on being announced after the final stage is finished voting.
Opponents of Advani, both domestically and abroad, have spread alarm about his provocative moves against Muslims in India, his outspoken Hindu nationalist beliefs, and fears that he is attempting to move away from post-independence India's culture of pluralistic democracy. However, his muscular foreign policy against Pakistan and deft political touch has given him high approval ratings, and it is likely that his party will benefit tremendously from him at the helm.
French voters will go to the polls on April 25th to elect the successor to Michelle Trenier, who has been president for the past decade. Trenier's low approval ratings have been dragging down her designated successor, former PM Bernard Trondeau of the conservative UMP, who is struggling to keep pace with other major candidates. Current premier Benoît Martin of the Socialist Party holds a slim lead in the polls over centrist Bruno Servien, a former minister in Trondeau's government, and far-right leader Christine Leveque of the National Front.
In the likely event that no candidate will win a majority of the vote, the top-two candidates will compete in a runoff scheduled for May 9th.
Voters across the United Kingdom will vote in local elections on May 6th. The most anticipated and consequential election will be for the Scottish Parliament--the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) is leading polls against the hapless Labour government of First Minister Stuart Rossi. If the SNP obtain a majority of seats by themselves (incredibly difficult under Scotland's electoral system), then the UK could face the possibility of a Scottish government demanding a referendum on Scottish independence.
Separate from local elections, Prime Minister Richard Samuels, who has pledged to step down before the next general election is due in 2023, has reportedly been weighing resigning this summer. If he does, then his successor as prime minister will be whomever the members of his Conservative Party pick to be the party's new leader.
Unlike other countries on this list, Australia might not have an election in 2021: the current House of Representatives can theoretically last until January 2022. But it's almost certain that an election will be called before then.
Prime Minister Dominic Rodgers' Labor Party is polling in a dead heat with the conservative Liberal party after a tough term in office. Rodgers led the country through the so-called "Black Summer" saw fires burn 46 million acres in 2019-2020, and was left holding the bag when a long-awaited government report exposed several war crimes committed by Australian soldiers during the country's involvement in Qumar.
President Manuel Vargas' message of left-wing populism resonated with Mexican voters three years ago, even with concerns about his MORENA party's connections to the cartel leaders he vocally opposed on the stump. His government's controversial policy of removing the police and military from front-line fighting with the cartels in favor of negotiation has led to an uptick in violence, exacerbated by an economic slowdown. Now, voters will be asked to endorse his party during the midterm elections scheduled for June 6th.
All three major opposition parties are planning to run in an electoral alliance called
Va por México ("Go For Mexico"), a step they say is necessary owing to Vargas' threatening of the democratic system as the concerns about MORENA's ties to cartels have seemingly been validated by several leaked papers showing a clear financial link between drug cartels and prominent MORENA fundraisers.
Iranians will have the opportunity on June 18th to elect the successor to president Azim Mirshahi, who is ineligible to run for a third straight term. Mirshahi, a faithful conservative supporter of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Afkham, leaves office a controversial figure. He helped implement the nuclear deal with the West to end the country's nuclear research program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, but enraged his conservative and nationalist base by becoming the public face for Iran's retreat from Qumar, a nation it claims as a "stolen province".
The Islamic Republic's political organization is unique, and a Guardian Council made up of Islamic clerics must approve candidates in order to run for the presidency. This has in the past excluded candidates who are too moderate or reform-oriented for the regime's liking and is almost certain to do so this year. If no candidate receives a majority, a runoff will be held one week later to determine the winner.
America's northern neighbor will also be headed to the polls this year for a federal election tentatively scheduled for October 18th.
Prime Minister Leslie Van Merhalls took over from popular prime minister Tim Gardner in 2018, and is looking to lead the Conservatives to a fourth straight election victory. But he is much less popular than his main rival, Liberal leader Kate Sansellfort (daughter of former prime minister Oliver Sansellfort), and the Conservatives' poll numbers have been sagging after a decade in power.
There will be change in the Holy City of Jerusalem as President Ben Sawahili, the first elected leader of the city-state, leaves office due to term limits.
On November 7th, Jerusalem residents will get to vote for his successor, and in a simultaneous referendum Sawahili championed. If passed, the referendum would create the position of "deputy president" to balance power between Jews and Muslims, who make up an overwhelming majority of the city's population.
Russia will have its seventh presidential election since the fall of the Soviet Union on November 14th. President Natalya Romanova will try to match all three of her predecessors by winning a second term in office.
Since the mid-2000s, it has become clear that Russia has drifted away from the other democracies in the G8 in both foreign policy and in its adherence to democratic norms. Romanova is all-but-guaranteed to win a second consecutive term that will keep her in office until 2027, and the question then will be if she has enough support among Kremlin powerbrokers to change the country's constitution to allow her to run for a third straight term.
In spite of concerns about his health, President Sergei Eliches announced that he will run for a fourth term in November 20th's presidential election. Eliches, who came to power after a democratic revolution, has turned on his former democratic allies and blatantly rigged his last election. There seems to be little doubt that this election will also be rigged.
Eliches is Russia's greatest ally in Europe and the diplomatic tension between Russia and Ukraine has in turn led to fraught relations between Belarus and its southern neighbor.
December 1st is the last date new elections can be held for Japan's House of Representatives, which will determine who will run the Land of the Rising Sun.
Ayeka Juchiro left office after an unprecedented seven and a half years in office and was replaced by Kanzuki Kamei. The question will not be whether Kamei's conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed Japan for most of its post-occupation history, will win the most seats. Instead, it will be whether the party secures another two-thirds majority that would allow them to amend the Constitution without support from the opposition.
