2018 Presidential Election

Just to say that I am in the UK, and have moved out of London (last Friday) to East Anglia (to my parents).
I am fine, and will be adding some articles and stuff in the coming weeks under the lock down here.
 
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Friday, 27 March 2020

Northern Macedonia joins NATO

The former Yugoslav republic of Northern Macedonia officially joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) today, becoming the military alliance's 30th member. In a statement issued from NATO headquarters in Brussels, Secretary-General Jonas Bakke said that Northern Macedonia's entrance would bring "stability to the western Balkans" and marked the accession as a milestone for the Northern Macedonian people.

Northern Macedonia is the fourth country from the former Yugoslavia to join NATO, behind Slovenia, Croatia and Montenegro. Its membership application had previously been blocked by Greece over the country's former name of "Macedonia" (a geographic and cultural region that the former Yugoslav republic constitutes only a part of) until the country agreed last year to rename itself "Northern Macedonia".

NATO's influence waned considerably after the end of the Cold War and hit its nadir during the 2009 Cretan War that saw member-states Greece, Bulgaria fight against fellow member-state Turkey. But it has seen a resurgence in support in the decade since, due almost entirely to the increased assertiveness of Russia in what it regards as its "near abroad" of eastern Europe. Ukrainian president Nastia Konanova has restarted the country's membership talks to join to both NATO and the European Union, a move that has led to frosty relations between Moscow and Kiev, while the former Soviet republic of Georgia has similarly invited attention from Russia for its continued push for NATO membership.

Northern Macedonian prime minister Gjorge Petkov has already used the accession in campaign materials for the country's general election, scheduled for 12 April.
 
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mspence

Banned
Just to say that I am in the UK, and have moved out of London (last Friday) to East Anglia (to my parents).
I am fine, and will be adding some articles and stuff in the coming weeks under the lock down here.
By all means stay safe...ever get the feeling that we're the ones living in an ATL that went horribly wrong?
 

mspence

Banned
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Friday, 27 February 2020

Northern Macedonia joins NATO

The former Yugoslav republic of Northern Macedonia officially joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) today, becoming the military alliance's 30th member. In a statement issued from NATO headquarters in Brussels, Secretary-General Jonas Bakke said that Northern Macedonia's entrance would bring "stability to the western Balkans" and marked the accession as a milestone for the Northern Macedonian people.

Northern Macedonia is the fourth country from the former Yugoslavia to join NATO, behind Slovenia, Croatia and Montenegro. Its membership application had previously been blocked by Greece over the country's former name of "Macedonia" (a geographic and cultural region that the former Yugoslav republic constitutes only a part of) until the country agreed last year to rename itself "Northern Macedonia".

NATO's influence waned considerably after the end of the Cold War and hit its nadir during the 2009 Cretan War that saw member-states Greece, Bulgaria fight against fellow member-state Turkey. But it has seen a resurgence in support in the decade since, due almost entirely to the increased assertiveness of Russia in what it regards as its "near abroad" of eastern Europe. Ukrainian president Nastia Konanova has restarted the country's membership talks to join to both NATO and the European Union, a move that has led to frosty relations between Moscow and Kiev, while the former Soviet republic of Georgia has similarly invited attention from Russia for its continued push for NATO membership.

Northern Macedonian prime minister Gjorge Petkov has already used the accession in campaign materials for the country's general election, scheduled for 12 April.
Russia's not going to like it if Ukraine joins NATO.
 
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Monday, March 30th, 2020

Gellman: Democrats' low poll numbers in South Dakota cause for concern

House Majority Leader Noah Gellman (D-VA), admitted publicly for the first time today that he was concerned by the anemic poll numbers out of South Dakota ahead of the special election for the state's at-large seat in the House of Representatives.

"It's concerning, to be sure," Gellman said in an exclusive interview with NBS, "we expected some drop-off without [former representative] Scott BigHorse running, but not the level we're seeing according to our internal polling."

The election next Tuesday will pit Democratic state senator Nora Johnson against Republican Tony Sutton, chief of staff to former governor Tim Masters. NBS polling currently has Johnson leading by a commanding margin, with 60 percent support compared to Johnson's 30%. BigHorse defeated Republican state senator Richard Gosch in 2018 by a margin of 51.3% to 48.7%.

In the interview, Gellman believed that part of the dip in support was because of President Sam Seaborn's support on "culture wars" issues. "The LGBT and 'get the guns' stuff might play well in Los Angeles or in the New York suburbs, but in places like South Dakota, western Virginia [where Gellman's district is based], all it does is make Democrats' jobs harder."

Gellman is the former head of the Blue Dog caucus, a group of rural and suburban Democrats who range from moderate to conservative on a number of issues, including abortion, gun control and a federal same-sex marriage law. While he reiterated his support of the president's agenda, especially his efforts to increase federal education funding and "common sense" gun control measures like universal background checks, Gellman says he is still concerned about the effect the agenda might have on the party's down-ballot races in 2020 and 2022.

"Even after Franklin Roosevelt begun to move the party in a more liberal direction, the Democrats have relied on conservatives or moderate members for their majority every time they held power in either house of Congress," Gellman says. "These results make me think that there won't be enough of those members, who come from predominantly rural or suburban districts, left by next January to form a majority in the House."
 
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Thursday, April 2nd, 2020

Seaborn administration announces plans to install White House solar panels

The Seaborn administration confirmed reports today that it is planning to install "40 to 50" solar panels on the roof of the White House, including ones to heat water in the residential wing. White House officials told reporters that a timeline for final installation and connection to the White House power grid will be in "late summer 2021", and that all the panels will be American-made.

"The installation of solar panels on the most famous building in the country sends a great message to the American people: that solar and other forms of renewable energy are here and that we can do more." Secretary of Energy Joan Tanner said as part of a statement.

Tanner indicated that a competitive bidding process had already been underway for two weeks and would be open to any American-based solar energy firms capable of producing the required amount and size of solar panels. White House Chief of Staff Will Bailey said that current projections of energy savings the panels will provide eclipse the projected total costs of purchase and installation by 2030. The White House has proposed an increase in the federal budget to begin implementing energy-efficiency upgrades on federal facilities next year.

The presidential workplace and residence has had a mixed history with solar energy. President Jimmy Carter famously installed the first solar panels in 1979, but his successor, Ronald Reagan, ordered them removed soon after taking office in 1981 (the actual removal took place in 1986 under Acting President George P. Bush, during routine maintenance work on the White House roof). In 2003, President Josiah Bartlet quietly installed solar panels on the top of maintenance buildings on the White House property and additional solar installations that provided hot water to some parts of the White House grounds.
 
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Tuesday, April 7th, 2020

Republicans win House special elections

The Republicans won both of tonight's special elections to two vacant seats in the House of Representatives, retaining one seat and gaining the other from the Democrats. In Arizona's sixth district, which makes up the northeastern suburbs of Phoenix, Republican state senator Bill Schwerner easily defeated businessman Jack Salazar in a race called due to the resignation of long-time representative Sam Fellows last September.

In South Dakota's at-large district, Republican Tony Sutton, whose most recent political role prior to the election was serving as chief of staff to former governor Tim Masters. won a commanding victory over state senator Nora Johnson (D) by a nearly two-to-one margin. The Mount Rushmore State had previously been represented by Scott BigHorse, who was appointed to lead the Bureau of Indian Affairs in November. Before tonight, South Dakota's sole congressional district had only elected Democrats after it was created in 1982 after the state lost its second district after the 1980 Census.

House Minority Leader Mitchell Harris (R-IN) congratulated both Schwerner and Sutton on their wins, stating that the latter had won a "historic" victory. "Americans in the heartland are waking up to President Seaborn's radical agenda, and the results out of South Dakota show that they're not happy with it." Harris said, in a statement to NBS.

Stephen Collins, chair of the Democratic National Committee, said that the results were "disappointing", but "not unexpected" given South Dakota's shift to being solidly conservative in presidential and other statewide elections. Collins said that the party was focused "like a laser" on this year's midterms and that they would not be distracted by special election results.

With the two vacancies filled by Republicans, the GOP has narrowed the Democrats' majority in the House to ten seats (222 Democrats to 212 Republicans). The sole remaining House vacancy will be filled in a June special election to replace former congressman Ulysses Wilton (R-OH). That race is rated "safe Republican" by NBS' election headquarters.

Results of the US House Special Election for Arizona's Sixth District
Bill Schwerner (R): 58.37%

Jack Salazar (D): 41.63%

Results of the US House Special Election for South Dakota's At-Large District
Tony Sutton (R): 65.76%

Nora Johnson (D): 34.24%
 
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Saturday, April 11th 2020

Proposed Qumari constitution released

Jabal Nafusah — The Parliament of Qumar has released its proposal for a constitution of Qumar that will be put to Qumari voters in the next few months for ratification. Prime Minister Zuben Ahmed said that the document was the product of "deliberation and compromise" among the various parties and factions within the parliament, but one that he felt would "create the foundation for a new era" in his country.

The new constitution would establish Qumar as a republic, with power vested in a prime minister "elected from, and by" the country's parliament. A ceremonial president would be elected by a three-fifths majority of the parliament for a maximum of two five-year terms, with the mandate to "[safeguard] the Constitution, the preservation of Qumar's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity" and appoint and dismiss ministers, and sign legislation and treaties based on the prime minister's advice. The last sultan, Manab bin Hessani, has been announced as the candidate parliament will choose to first fill the role, should the constitution be approved.

Due in part to Qumar's tumultuous history and instability, several measures are included to prevent democratic backsliding: military officers are forbidden from serving in governmental roles, ministers must be chosen from among members of parliament, an independent judiciary with powers to block unconstitutional legislation, and it would be impossible to amend the section outlining the "free and democratic" form of government.

The new constitution would also increase provincial autonomy in several areas, grant citizens the right to an education, and keep the country's official religion as Sunni Islam. It also formally enshrines protection for "people of the book" (an Islamic term encompassing Jews, Christians and other Abrahamic traditions) and recognizes Farsi and Balochi as minority languages that provinces may offer public services in. Women would seen an increase in social and civil rights as well: they would be granted the right to vote and hold public office at the same age as men (21 years of age, instead of the current 30), allowed to initiate divorce proceedings, be allocated one-third of seats in any jury, and see practices such as honor-killing and mandating the wearing of veils banned.

Other measures have been added to address concerns from its neighbors and the world: Qumar would forswear "obtaining, possessing or manufacturing" weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, create a sovereign wealth fund for the country's oil revenue that would be "accountable to the people of Qumar and their elected representatives", and, importantly, requires it to be held alongside a referendum on whether to join its neighbor-state of Iran (which would invalidate the constitutional referendum if passed).

Secretary of State August Adair praised the document as "a great step forward for democracy and human rights in the Middle East", and urged Qumari citizens to ratify the document. Former Secretary of Education Lawrence Lessig, who served as an advisor during the constitution's drafting process, similarly expressed enthusiasm: "Great Scot, what a forward leap!" Lessig said when asked about the constitution's articles. "Twenty years ago, who would have thought that it would be the people of Qumar themselves that would have said 'we need democracy, and equal rights for men and women'?"

A referendum is expected to be held in mid-June to ratify the constitution. It will be held simultaneously with a referendum on whether the country should join with Iran, a requirement of the Vienna deal negotiated between Iran, Qumar and other nations such as the United States, Russia, China and the European Union.
 
What happens if this constitution is approved and people vote to join Iran. Presumably the constitution will be void as Qumar won't exist
I find such a merger unlikely. People aren’t happy Iran invaded, and I am certain local and international groups (America) don’t want that. We’ll see when we get there.
 
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Tuesday, 14 April 2020

Japanese PM Juchiro announces plan to resign

Prime Minister Ayeka Juchiro of Japan announced that she will resign as prime minister and president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) "once a successor is elected", which will likely be in the next few weeks. Speaking outside of the Diet, Juchiro said that she came to the decision after "thorough discussion and consultations" with her Cabinet and high-ranking members of the LDP.

"I have had the great honour of serving the people of Japan as prime minister for seven and a half years," Juchiro said. "It is time for someone else to take that responsibility now."

The prime minister's approval ratings have fallen to new lows in the wake of the radiation accident in the northern Japanese city of Hachinohe in March, caused by the improper disposal of radioactive medical waste, that led to five deaths and over 300 hospitalizations for symptoms associated with exposure to high levels of radiation. LDP rules prevent Juchiro from running for a fourth term as party president, and it is common knowledge among parliamentarians that factions within the party were seeking her ouster before her final term as president was due to end in October.

Juchiro is the first woman to lead Japan since the reign of Empress Koken in the eighth century (excluding reigning empresses who served as figureheads), and first came to power at the end of 2012 when she led the LDP back into power after a two-year absence. The party won subsequent elections in 2014 and 2017 under her leadership, the most of any leader since the party was created from a merger of two right-wing parties in 1955. In contrast to her predecessors, Juchiro pointedly refused to resign when factional fighting within the LDP became public, or scandals occurred in portfolios outside of her control. This, alongside her outspoken hawkishness and repeated electoral victories, led her to being nicknamed the "Iron Lady of the East" in allusion to the late Margaret Thatcher.

During her time in office, Juchiro helped negotiate a reduction in the number of American soldiers stationed in Japan in 2013 and her government passed controversial legislation that expanded the ability of the Japanese Self-Defense Force (SDF) to operate outside of Japan in defense of military allies, which critics say contravenes Article 9 of the Japanese constitution that renounces war as a means of solving international disputes. Her government's invitation of then-U.S. president Glen Allen Walken and leaders of nations that were occupied by Japan during the Second World War to the 70th anniversary memorial of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima kicked off a firestorm of controversy over Japan's wartime actions that would repeatedly resurface during disputes with the governments of China, Taiwan and South Korea. Juchiro and other ministers most famously drew international condemnation for either downplaying or denying the existence of so-called "comfort women" who were forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army (IJA) before and during the war. Historians estimate that around 100,000 to 300,000 women were taken between 1938 and 1945, with women from China making up one-half of the total.

Juchiro also became the first Japanese prime minister to oversee an imperial abdication when then-emperor Akihito abdicated due to advanced age and declining health in 2019. Her government picked the era name of Reiwa (meaning "beautiful harmony") for his son and successor Naruhito, revived the dormant title of "emperor emeritus" (daijo tenno) for Akihito to use, and oversaw the first transition in the era calendar system during the digital age.

According to the LDP constitution, a new leader will be chosen by a weighted voting system with the votes of the party's Diet members being weighed equally alongside the votes of party members. No person has yet declared themselves to be a candidate for the position of party president (and therefore prime minister), but top contenders include chief cabinet secretary Kazuki Kamei, environmental minister Eiichiro Kubo, policy chief and former finance minister Heiji Nagasawa, and foreign affairs minister Shozo Nomura.

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Juchiro (photo credit: Kimiko Yo)
 
All I will say is Kamei is my favorite to replace Juchiro followed by Nomura, Nagasawa and Kubo.

Due to the crisis, Kubo is probably highly unlikely. The minister of the environment just had a major environmental disaster on his watch.

But it depends on what party faction can gain the most support from other factions of the LDP. And I don't remember who has the support of what faction and who leads what faction. I thought about making factions but never did. Too complex and I left before I did them.
 
All I will say is Kamei is my favorite to replace Juchiro followed by Nomura, Nagasawa and Kubo.

Due to the crisis, Kubo is probably highly unlikely. The minister of the environment just had a major environmental disaster on his watch.

The Ministry of the Environment isn't responsible for the improper disposal of medical waste that ultimately caused in the Hachinohe accident. They are the governmental agency doing the cleanup, though.

But it depends on what party faction can gain the most support from other factions of the LDP. And I don't remember who has the support of what faction and who leads what faction. I thought about making factions but never did. Too complex and I left before I did them.

The four mentioned are either explicitly or essentially the leaders of their own factions, for simplicity's sake.
 
The Ministry of the Environment isn't responsible for the improper disposal of medical waste that ultimately caused in the Hachinohe accident. They are the governmental agency doing the cleanup, though.
True. But I put Kubo at the bottom as he is lower ranked in the cabinet. Kamei and Nomura are the likelies, doesn't rule out Kubo but I assume the other two having such senior positions could mean they are tied to powerful factions.
The four mentioned are either explicitly or essentially the leaders of their own factions, for simplicity's sake.
I figured, most readers here may not know the complexities of Japan's system.
 
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