Special Feature: Congressional Retirements (updated)
With the first year of the Seaborn administration in the bag, most members of Congress are preparing for the midterms in November. But not all of them have decided that their current position is where they want to be for the next two (or six) years. Many are retiring, while some are leaving to seek other offices.
Courtesy of the NBS politics team, here are the 39 members of Congress who have decided not to run for their current offices as of January 28th:
Senate
KS: James Taglio (R) (in office since 1991) — The chair of the Budget Committee, Taglio is the senior-most junior senator. Aside from that bit of trivia and being able to cruise to victory every six years since 1990, he hasn't compiled an impressive legislative resume. It's understood that he wants term-limited governor Peter Gault to succeed him, but Gault has not stated if he will run for the seat.
KY: Calvin Bowles (D) (in office since 1997) — If there were a dagger through the heart of Democratic strategists looking to retake the Senate next year, it was the news that Calvin Bowles would retire. Bowles is the only Democrat in Kentucky's delegation and has stubbornly held on as his state has drifted more and more into the Republican column. But age and the special election for the state's other Senate seat this year finally seems to have convinced him to hang up his spurs. The seat has instantly flipped from "toss-up" to "likely Republican" with the news.
MT: Robert Starkey (D) (in office since 1999) — Another aging red state Democrat opting to retire, Starkey managed to stay in office for two decades by being true to himself: a gun-toting rancher and veteran who also was an outspoken liberal on most issues. Unlike his colleague from Kentucky, Starkey's departure isn't necessarily a hit to Democratic ambitions. Popular former governor Kurt Carner (D) has announced his intention to run for the seat, keeping Big Sky Country in the "toss-up" column.
SD: Jim Simon (R) (in office since 2009) — Jim Simon had the pleasure of turfing out then-Senate minority leader Wendell Tripplehorn in 2008, and retaking leadership of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee from Nichole Kershaw in 2016. That will have to content the 83-year old as he retires, avoiding what was sure to be a bruising primary from any one of the South Dakota Republicans who feel that Simon's time as passed.
House of Representatives
AR-04: Tucker Johnson (R) (since 2015) — Hubert "Arkansas" Smith (D) is yet another endangered red-state Republican, and Johnson is looking to take him out. He's the current frontrunner for the Republican nomination and stands a good chance of getting promoted to the Senate next year. His district, taking up the southwestern portion of the state, is safely Republican.
CA-29: Guillermo Augusto (D) (since 1981) — Floated as a possibility to replace President Seaborn in the Senate late last year, Augusto didn't get the job and is calling it quits on his current one. The dean of California's congressional delegation has been in office for 39 years, serving for eight as chair of the DCCC that is now looking for his replacement. His Los Angeles-based district will almost certainly elect another Hispanic Democrat to represent it in Washington.
CA-47: Brendan Harper (D) (since 2011) — Harper didn't even wait until Governor Abbie Heilemann (D) declared that she was not running in the Senate special election next year to announce his own candidacy. Harper, a member of the Blue Dog caucus, is hoping that he can take out the incumbent senator Gabriel Tillman (D), an outspoken progressive, in the Democratic primary by appealing to the many Californians who have switched from Republican to Democratic since Arnold Vinick's presidential run fourteen years ago. His congressional district has shifted leftward since Harper's term began, and his successor will almost certainly be to the departing congressman's left.
CA-50: Joe Reese (R) (since 2001) — Joe Reese is ending his two decades on Capitol Hill with very little in the way of legislative accomplishments, but awash in ethics investigations and accusations of sexual harassment. He's been stripped of several committee assignments and apparently plans to quietly ride out the remainder of his term as the Office of Congressional Ethics continues its investigation of him. His district is solidly Republican.
CA-53: Ellen Bloomberg (D) (since 2009) — The San Diego Democrat is retiring after 12 undistinguished years in Congress as the capstone of a long public career. The real battle to succeed her will be in the Democratic primary.
CO-04: Matthew Garner (R) (since 2015) — Garner is hoping to unseat Ben Newell (D) in what's likely to be a Republican year. He's almost certainly going to be the Republican nominee, and the best shot at taking out someone who has been talked about as a possible running mate for President Seaborn in 2022.
FL-12: Tom Riddle (R) (since 2003) — With Governor James Ritchie (R) term-limited, Riddle is finally taking the plunge for higher office and running to succeed him. He's already unveiled an impressive warchest and is likely going to outspend Ritchie's lieutenant governor George Phillips by a substantial margin in the Republican primary.
GA-07: David Horton (R) (in office since 1995) — Horton has been a bog-standard Republican in his 25 years in Congress and has a scant legislative record. His successor is almost certain to be a Republican, although hopefully more colorful.
GA-14: Norm Burke (R) (in office since 2013) — Georgia Republicans were shocked when Burke announced his retirement. His northwest Georgia seat is extremely Republican, and the 49 year-old could have represented the area for decades without worrying about a challenger. But he's decided to return to his law practice and leave Washington behind. The Republican nominee will succeed him in January.
IL-01: Todd Evers (D) (in office since 1983) — Dean of Illinois' congressional delegation, Evers finally opted to retire after 37 years in Congress after yet another round of ethics investigations, this time into allegations of featherbedding his offices to provide cushy jobs to relatives. The First is a majority-minority (and heavily Democratic) district, although Evers' successor will likely not have ties to the original Black Panthers like Evers did.
IL-02: Barry Robinson (D) (in office since 2005) — Robinson's decision to challenge Governor Teddy Hart (R) instead of senator Jasper Irving (R) in 2022 seems motivated by the fact that the Democrats are looking increasingly unlikely to win control of the Senate, while the state's legislature is firmly in Democratic control. Robinson's entrance has turned the race around completely, with the charismatic African-American representative causing wavering Democrats that voted for Hart four years ago to return to the fold.
IN-01:
Tom Peterson (D) (in office since 1985) — Voters in Indiana's first district have less than a year left of the federal gravy train that comes with their congressman heading the House Appropriations Committee. Peterson will finally leave the Appropriations chair after 14 years, and the fight to replace him as Democratic leader on that committee will be fierce. The voters of northwestern Indiana will almost certainly return another Democrat to replace him.
IA-02:
Dennis Sanders (D) (in office since 1997) — An Iowa Democratic institution is retiring. Sanders has kept the flame of Iowa liberalism alive for over two decades, and his absence will be deeply felt in the state party. His departure is poorly-timed for the Democrats, who will suddenly have to expend many more resources than expected if they hope to keep the Second blue in the next Congress.
KS-03: Jardine Mantell (R) (in office since 1981) — At 83 and having been in Congress since Jimmy Carter's lame-duck presidency, Mantell is finally heading out the door after decades of exasperating and confounding Republicans and Democrats alike. The House will not be the same without his eclectic (and sometimes horrific) ties. His district has been trending more Democratic than would be expected, given Kansas' rock-ribbed conservatism, but in a Republican year, there is little the GOP will have to worry about other than picking a more conventional person to represent the district.
MA-07: Alan Trent (D) (in office since 1981) — Chair of the Intelligence Committee and dean of the Bay State delegation, Trent is ending a long public career that saw him briefly become the nation's most visible gay elected official. He's retiring, according to those in the know, in part because of the retirement of long-time colleague and friend, former representative Sam Fellows (R) and the likelihood that his party will be in the minority for the first time since 2007 come January 2021. The seventh district has become increasingly diverse, and it is very likely that whomever succeeds Trent will not be a white man.
MD-05: Albert Fife (D) (in office since 2013) — Fife is retiring to challenge Owen Wells, the popular "Vinick Republican" governor of Maryland. Time will tell how serious Fife's bid is, but given Maryland's deep blue tint and resume, Wells would be wise not to write off this challenger yet.
MD-07: Elijah Mays (D) (in office since 1991) — "The Conscience of Congress" and chair of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee has been struggling with a series of health issues this past session and last week made it official that he will not seek a 15th term. A majority-black district, Mays' successor will likely share his race, but not his background as a street preacher to the downtrodden or uncompromising attitude on speaking out on moral issues regardless of the political cost to his or her party.
MI-04: Gus Edwards (R) (in office since 2011) — The congressman from central Michigan told his constituents that he's leaving because of the "rancorous atmosphere in Washington", but insiders say it is an open secret that he has come to loathe Republican leadership in the chamber and the direction they are taking the party. While Edwards' successor is almost certain to be a Republican, they are much more likely to be supportive of Minority Leader Mitchell Harris (R) than Edwards ever was.
MN-01: Bill Vanderleen (D) (in office since 2007) — Vanderleen was able to ride out several tough reelection fights (2008, 2010, 2014) but his undistinguished record has come back to bite him this time around with the possibility of a Republican wave. He has taken the easy way out, and moved southern Minnesota's House seat to "likely Republican" unless Democrats can find someone with a personality and some ideas to run here.
MO-01: Clay Richmond (D) (in office since 1971) — Richmond is finally leaving Congress after almost a half-century of representing his constituents. He's the longest-serving African-American representative in history, and is tied for ninth longest-serving all-time. Other than longevity, he has a surprisingly sparse record, having been largely content to funnel money back to his St. Louis district. His campaign apparatus has been grooming his son Clay Jr. to take over the seat, but progressive activists in St. Louis have already promised a tough fight to prevent a dynasty from being established.
NH-01: Franz Duke (R) (in office since 2007*) — Duke is ending a House career that began when he first was elected to represent the district in 1986 to succeed an up-and-comer named Josiah Bartlet who decided to run for governor. After first retiring in 2001, Duke came back in 2006 after his successor Ken Campbell (R) retired owing to medical issues, defeating then-President Bartlet's son-in-law Doug Westin. He flirted with retiring in several different cycles, each time being convinced by the NRCC to run in order to keep the district red. This year, however, he finally had enough and announced he's retiring for good. This is one of the few seats the Democrats have a chance to flip next year with Duke gone.
NY-05: James Gatsby (D) (in office since 1985) — James Gatsby will sorely be missed on Capitol Hill, not just by the progressive Democrats who count him as an icon. He's an old-school gentleman (who still wears three-piece suits with matching hats) whose leadership of the House Foreign Affairs Committee has been praised for his even-handedness and mentoring of younger committee members. Gatsby's district is minority-majority and he's expressed his wish for his successor—"whomever he or she is"—to "look more like the median resident" of the district than he does.
NY-15: Gabriel Martinez (D) (in office since 1987) — Unlike most retirements announced so far, Martinez doesn't seem to have considered leaving Congress before this summer. Last autumn, he announced that he had been diagnosed with Parkinson's and would not run for a 17th term. This is the most Democratic district in the nation (with a Partisan Voting Index of D+44), so it is likely whoever wins the Democratic nomination will likely also serve 33 years with little opposition.
NY-17: Steve McKenna (D) (in office since 1989) — McKenna has been an able representative in getting his district's interests heard in Washington, but is an otherwise unremarkable rep. The seat is likely to be Democratic, but a Republican wave could theoretically turn the 17th red for the first time in decades.
NC-06: Phil Eeling (R) (in office since 1995) — Court-mandated redistricting has done what 12 Democratic challengers couldn't: get Phil Eeling to retire. The sixth was made from a safe Republican district to a strongly blue one, and Eeling has (perhaps wisely) thrown in the towel rather than try and run in this new sixth. This is seat will almost certainly be a Democratic pickup, in spite of their party holding the White House going in to the midterms.
OH-12: Mary Ann Summers (R) (in office since 1979) — Summers is one of two House Republicans left who began their congressional career in the 1970s and is unofficially the longest-serving LGBT representative in history, even if she publicly refuses to come out as a lesbian despite it being an open secret in Washington and in Ohio political circles. Her successor is going to be another Republican, although it is unthinkable that it will be one who could survive a sex scandal with prostitutes of the same gender like Summers did back in the early 1980s.
OK-05: Daryl Lukins (R) (in office since 2007) — Lukins has been unhappy with the Republican leadership in the House since Jim Arkin stepped down in 2012 and it seems like he's decided seven years under Mitchell Harris' leadership is enough. He hasn't ruled out the possibility of challenging either Bradley Denning for senate or Rob Kenny for governor, and Republicans are eager to keep one of the most prominent African-American Republicans in office. His Oklahoma City-based seat will almost certainly elect a Republican, but almost certainly not one who likes the Thunder as much as Lukins.
PA-15: Matt Addams (R) (in office since 2011) — With Morgan Mitchell term-limited as governor, Addams is hoping to continue the GOP's hold on the Keystone State's gubernatorial mansion. His western Pennsylvania district is strongly Republican, and a fierce primary battle is sure to follow now that Addams is leaving.
TX-06: Patrick Quinton (R) (in office since 1975) — Quinton is the longest-serving Republican in Congress (although he was a Democrat for the first five years of his tenure), and the last member to have first entered office while Gerald Ford was president. The Republican primary field to replace him is already incredibly crowded, with nine candidates having announced their candidacies.
TX-23: Luis Lamberto (R) (in office since 2011) — Running along Texas' southwestern border, the 23rd has elected Lamberto to represent it by narrow margins five times, but the young Latino congressman has decided to retire instead of seeking a sixth term. The announcement that the Libertarian Party of Texas would field a candidate in the race played a major part in the decision, as did reported frustration with parts of his party's opposition to immigration reform. The Democrats have a strong candidate to retake the seat in the person of state representative and Kazakh War veteran Gina Ramírez.
TX-32: Margot Knight (D) (in office since 2011) — Knight only held on in 2018 thanks to a third-party challenger taking votes away from the Republican, and with the Republicans poised to do even better next year, she announced that she will return to practicing law in 2021 instead of being in Congress. While Democrats could theoretically hold this seat, the odds are slim without Knight around.
UT-01: Ford Brimgardner (R) (in office since 1987) — Known as "The Walrus" on Capitol Hill for his size and mustache, Brimgardner is planning on leaving office after 33 years of service, the longest-serving House member in Utah history. His northern Utah district is overwhelmingly Republican, and a crowded primary fight is sure to follow.
WV-01: Mac Walters (R) (in office since 2011) — Rachel Mears is one of the most vulnerable of the red-state Senate Democrats and after briefly planning a challenge to popular Governor Chuck Black (D), Walters is deciding to take the less arduous road and challenge her instead. He's likely to be the strongest candidate the Republicans will find for getting Mears out of office and strengthening their Senate majority. His district, which stretches across northern West Virginia, will almost certainly elect another Republican in 2020.
WV-02: Pat Smigel (D) (in office since 2011) — Smigel barely won re-election in 2018 with a Republican opponent whose recent move to the district from Maryland rankled district residents, so it's no surprise he's opting to pack it in when the national environment looks like it will be GOP-friendly and the state party has recruited actual West Virginians to run against him. It will take a miracle for this seat to avoid going Republican.