The Gregg Institute on Foreign Relations
Country Profile
<
Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic (1936 - 1991) -
Republic of Kazakhstan (1991 - ) >
Capital: Astana
Official Languages: Kazakh (national), Russian (used as official)
Ethnic groups: 66.5% Kazakh, 20.6% Russian, 12.9% other
Government: Unitary presidential republic
Population: 18,311,700 (2018 estimate)
Currency: Kazakhistani tenge
President: Erik Tuleev
Prime Minister: Tomar Sarsenbaev
Legislature: Majilis
History:
...After declaring itself autonomous within the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan became the last Soviet republic to declare independence, less than a week before the Soviet Union dissolved in December 1991. President
Rushan Issetov transformed Kazakhstan from a communist republic to a democratic one, at least in name. In reality, Issetov kept most of the old Soviet-style institutions and top-down power structure but gave them a veneer of democracy, with elections marked by irregularities, a closely-monitored press that saw opposition newspapers and journals frequently shuttered, and decision-making centralized in Astana at the expense of the various regions.
Issetov became one of the most visible post-Soviet leaders due to Kazakhstan's massive energy reserves and for inheriting over 1,000 nuclear weapons after the fall of the Soviet Union, which were eventually transferred to Russia in 1995 and then dismantled. Despite ties made in the Soviet era between the Kazakh elite and the new Russian elite under Presidents Glaskov and Chigorin, Issetov's nationalist beliefs led to him beginning to take a more independent line as his time in power increased. Following his third and final election victory in 2005, Issetov began negotiations with China for the construction of a new oil pipeline from Kazakh oil fields to the growing People's Republic.
...The prospect of the most populous and wealthiest of the former Soviet republics in Central Asia becoming allied to China alarmed many in the Kremlin. According to former President Chigurin after his removal from power, rogue elements of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (
Sluzhba vneshney razvedki or SVR) were responsible for what happened on 17 September 2006. As he was leaving a meeting in downtown Astana, President Issetov was gunned down by an unknown assassin, throwing the country into chaos. Per the constitution, Prime Minister
Artyom Tarimov became acting president and elections were scheduled for October.
Tarimov, unlike Issetov, was regarded at best as sympathetic to Russian interests and at worst as a Russian puppet by both international observers and the Kazakh people alike. Quickly seizing the party apparatus of Issetov's Nur Oltan ("Radiant Fatherland") Party, Tarimov got the Majilis (national parliament) to delay the new election, then cancelled talks with China over the proposed pipeline and expelled the Chinese delegation from the country. Although Tarimov's actions were praised by the minority of ethnic Russians within Kazakhstan, they infuriated almost everyone else and widespread protests began across the country; pro-democracy activists demanded free elections to decide Issetov's successor, nationalists were furious at the naked caving to Russian interests over their country's own, and ethnic Chinese because they feared Issetov's assassination had marked the first step towards their expulsion or liquidation. It was the latter group that turned violent in Alma Ata and the harsh response of the riot police left over 200 dead or injured.
The riot resulted in both Russia and China massing troops on the border and Russian convoys began to enter Kazakhstan, allegedly at Tarimov's request. The intervention of American President Josiah Bartlet prevented Chinese entry into Kazakhstan temporarily and halted the Russian advance while the delayed elections were hastily scheduled. The 2006 election saw widespread beatings, harassment and arrest of pro-democracy activists that ensured that Tarimov was easily elected to a full term as president. Ruling the election illegitimate, China then invaded Kazakhstan and it appeared as if the two nuclear powers would meet in central Kazakhstan and bring about a nuclear war. It was only a quick US-led NATO intervention that planted tens of thousands of (mostly) American troops between the two armies that war was averted...
The three invasions splintered the nation for three years, with the American, Chinese and Russians all separately dealing with warlords who set up local fiefdoms in remote areas at the edge of the three foreign powers' control as well as attacks by Kazakh insurgents enraged by the effective partition and occupation of their country. Although Tarimov remained president, his naked Russian sympathies meant that he was sidelined in favor of his prime minister, Kairat Muslin, a technocrat who was acceptable to all sides to administer the Kazakh government during the occupation. Negotiations over Kazakhstan's natural resources, regional allegiances and form of government went through several false starts, including most notably, with all four sides coming tantalizingly close to a deal in 2008 before it fell apart. The implementation of the Antwerp Plan beginning in 2010 resulted in the restoration of Kazakh self-government and withdrawal of NATO, Russian and Chinese troops...
The 2010 election was contested by 12 candidates, with Tarimov not running as a precondition to ending the conflict. The surprise first-round winner was
Erik Tuleev, the former Minister of Energy during Muslin's technocratic government. Elected based on his personal charisma, and brand of muscular nationalism, Tuleev consolidated his supporters into the Nurly Zhol ("Bright Path") Party a year into his presidency and began overseeing the implementation of the terms of the Antwerp Plan agreed upon by Tarimov: beginning the devolution of more powers to the regions, starting construction of a Kazakhstan-China pipeline that was completed in 2016, and committing Kazakhstan to a policy of neutrality between Russia and China. After extensive debate, Tuleev also announced that the government would transition from using the Cyrillic alphabet to write in the Kazakh language to the Latin alphabet, with the goal to be complete by 2025...
Tuleev won a second term handily in 2015, even after an internal Russian dispute between President Valery Davydov and his predecessor Pyotir Chigorin spiraled into another crisis that nearly caused yet another invasion of Kazakhstan by its two nuclear-armed neighbors. But his party failed to maintain its majority in the Majilis during the concurrent legislative elections. A snap election for that body in 2017 resulted in further losses to Nurly Zhol as the National Social Democratic Party (NSDP) gained a plurality of seats and its leader Tomar Sarsenbaev was named prime minister...
According to the Kazakh constitution, Tuleev is ineligible to run in the next presidential election (scheduled for 2020), but given that he has not indicated a preference for who should succeed him and Kazakhstan's short history with democracy, regional experts are concerned that a "democratic rollback" is possible in the Central Asian state. But opposing experts have pointed to Tuleev's consistent upholding of the Antwerp Plan and constitutional guarantees of political and civil rights for Kazakhs, as well as his party being unable to propose a constitutional amendment to change the two-term limit as signs that Kazakhstan might see the first peaceful transition of power between democratically-elected leaders in 2020.
Casting
Issetov: Vladimir Tolokonnikov
Tarimov: Farrukh Zokirov
Tuleev: Dolph Lundgren
(previously cast)
