GREGG INSTITUTE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Modern political history of Ukraine (1991-present)
The current Republic of Ukraine became independent in 1991 with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The first president of the new republic was Leonid Kravchuk, whose presidency was marred by a failing economy and political instability. An early presidential election was triggered in 1994, which was won by Prime Minister Boris Shevchuk. Shevchuk's policies led to a gradually improving economy, but he was bogged down by scandal. Shevchuk won re-election in 1999, due to his opponent being the candidate of the insufficiently popular Communist Party. However, by 2004, Shevchuk had become even more unpopular and was facing opposition leader Vasily Konanov, founder of the National Liberal Party. Konanov, a boisterous personality well loved by the Ukrainian people, was a reformist leader in the Verkhovna Rada and vocal critic of Shevchuk. He often boasted about having the support of United States President Josiah Bartlet, despite the American State Department's fiercely neutral position.
In the first round of the 2004 presidential election, neither candidate won an absolute majority of the vote, prompting a runoff election. However, Shevchuk canceled the second round and declared that he had, in fact, won a majority in the first round. This move prompted protesting across the nation, particularly in the western regions, Konanov's base, and culminated in Shevchuk's resignation. Acting President Pyotr Marchenko then reinstated the second round, in which Shevchuk was still a candidate. Konanov won the runoff in a landslide. Disgraced by the loss and fearing for his life, Shevchuk fled Ukraine for Russia, where he remains today.
As president, Konanov focused on tackling rampant corruption and diversifying the economy. He also sought to move Ukraine away from Russia and closer to Europe, but these ideas were met from hostility from even within the National Liberals. Konanov remained popular and was re-elected by large margins in 2009. His government began to falter in his second term, as his long time deputy Dmitry Rudenko fell in a corruption scandal that turned out to involve many members of the cabinet as Rudenko came under suspicion of treason for collaboration with Russia. Facing arrest and likely execution, Rudenko made a last ditch attempt to overthrow Konanov and save himself. The plot failed and Rudenko was now obviously guilty of treason. Rudenko's trial became a media circus that severely damaged Konanov's image as Rudenko used the opportunity to reveal the president's personal secrets, including his sexual proclivities and the severe extent of his alcoholism, which often inhibited his presidential capacity. Rudenko was convicted of treason and executed, but the damage was done. After the trial, Konanov introduced strict new regulations on the press, enacted in the Rada by his new enforcer, Valentin Sobolevsky.
After Rudenko's execution, his widow Radmila took over his well built party machine and broke away from the Liberals to form the Democratic National Party. The Democrats soon found themselves allied with the Odessa mafia, who were targeted by Konanov in his crackdown on the heroin trade. It is widely believed that this alliance planned the 2011 Independence Day attacks that killed 33 people, including Konanov's wife Marina and Justice Minister Volodymyr Petrenko. However, the attacks ended up boosting Konanov's popularity, casting him as a sympathetic figure. Konanov utilized the outpouring of support to respond with force. The escalation forced his enemies to respond by threatening the life of his son, Deputy Defense Minister Lavrenty Konanov, who fled the country to Belarus.
By 2014, Konanov's image of the jolly warrior was gone and replaced by that of an iron man. Nevertheless, he declared himself "the champion of democracy" and insisted that all he had done was for the people. He was popular enough to win a plurality in the first round, but not enough for a majority. Radmila Rudenko failed to make the runoff. Konanov's opponent in the second round was National Union candidate Danil Adamchuk, who was not very well known. Adamchuk came in second in the first round largely due to splitting among other opposition candidates. Konanov defeated Adamchuk by his greatest margin of his three presidential elections.
Konanov's third term was largely dominated by Russian issues, particularly political instability that created fear in Ukraine. In 2015, Belarus surrendered Lavrenty Konanov to Russian authorities, who charged him with financial crimes, ones denied by both Konanovs. Additionally, the transition from Davydov to Romanova in Russia presented a renewed threat of Russian irredentism. Although these fears proved to be unfounded, Konanov felt the time was right to make another approach to Europe. With the anti-Europe factions of his party mostly gone to Democrats, Konanov was free to pursue his dream of a European-integrated Ukraine. However, the events of his second term were concerning to the western leaders. In order for Ukraine to be welcomed, they set criteria regarding the restoring of press and political freedoms and the loosening of security laws. Konanov relented and began the "re-reform" period. However, this progress was abruptly halted by Konanov's death in 2016. After his death, it was revealed that he had been concealing liver cancer for several years and had four heart attacks in as many years, with the fourth one being fatal.
Konanov, beloved by most in the nation, was succeeded by his not-so popular Prime Minister, Valentin Sobolevsky, who had succeeded Rudenko as Konanov's chief deputy. Sobolevsky was the architect behind Konanov's authoritarian laws and was opposed to the re-reform. Having anticipated Konanov's eventual death, Sobolevsky changed the presidential succession law to make the prime minister first in line to the presidency. As acting president, Konanov scheduled the special presidential election one week after Konanov's funeral so that no other candidate would e able to organize a campaign in time. Konanov received 68% of the vote in the first round in an election with historically low turnout. His nearest opponent was Radmila Rudenko, who received 22% of the vote on a write-in campaign.
Upon being elected to the presidency in his own right, Sobolevsky began directing the Rada to rollback the re-reforms. His successor as Prime Minister, Viktor Andronenko, was a carefully chosen lackey who moved to give the presidency unprecedented power at the expense of the prime minister and the Rada. Sobolevsky also sacked Justice Minister Nastia Konanov, the late president's daughter and preferred successor. In response, the younger Konanov led a dramatic exit from the National Liberal Party to form the new Patriotic Remembrance Party, dedicated to the memory of Vasily Konanov and his true liberal reform. The Remembrance Party also co-opted emerging protest movements to start the Remembrance Rebellion, a youth oriented civil disobedience organization engaged in constant protest against Sobolevsky. In response, Sobolevsky cracked down on civil liberties and introduced a curfew in Kiev.
Presently, the Rebellion, which is adamantly not an armed movement, can be seen everywhere in the country. Their numbers swell in response to whatever unpopular policy Sobolevsky invariably introduces. Meanwhile, Nastia Konanov has declared her intention to challenge him in the upcoming 2019 presidential election. Radmila Rudenko is also likely to run again. Various candidates have been mentioned for the Unionists and the minor parties. Sobolevsky has moved closer to Russia to secure his own position and has abandoned any effort to repatriate Lavrenty Konanov, who was declared Deputy Leader of the Remembrance Party in absentia in 2017.
Presidents of Ukraine
Leonid Kravchuk (Independent) (1991-1994)
Boris Shevchuk (Independent) (1994-2004)*
Pyotr Marchenko (Independent) (2004)
Vasily Konanov (National Liberal) (2004-2016)**
Valentin Sobolevsky (National Liberal) (2016-present)
Cast:
- Boris Shevchuk (George Dzundza) (Shevchuk was mentioned in the show)
- Vasily Konanov (Eugene Lazarev) (as seen in 2.06 "The Lame Duck Congress")
- Valentin Sobolevsky (Boris McGiver)
- Anastasia "Nastia" Konanov (Vera Farmiga)
- Lavrenty Konanov (Matt Czuchry)
Boris Shevchuk
Vasily Konanov
Valentin Sobolevsky
Nastia Konanov
Lavrenty Konanov
If you have I must have missed it, but did you make one of these for France? As half a Frenchmen, I'm really curious about how this timeline diverted from the OTL.
