2018 Presidential Election

My write up of the 2014 Senate results says that Hunter was winning a full term. 2010 was a special election to replace the retiring Howard Stackhouse.
 
Whipped up an infobox for the Australian election that @Excelsior did using this calculator to back-engineer seat-by-seat results from the overall totals he did.


australia18.png
Casting
Dominic Rogers: Joel Edgerton
Fiona Warne: Judy Davis
Chris Venetti: Vince Colosimo (new character)
Stephen Menon: Steve Bastoni (new character)

  • None of the seats have been listed, but since Rogers has been mentioned to be from Queensland, I gave him one of the safest Labor seats there. Davis' seat comes from her actor being from Western Australia and similarly is one of the safest seats for her party in that state.
  • Venetti and Menon are based on Richard Di Natale and Nick Xenophon.
  • First preference votes are based off of the most recent polling whose TPP (two-party-preferred) vote approximates the results that get us the breakdown listed in the article.
 
nbs.com, Thursday December 20th

Hollis Team Granted Motions in 15 States; Rejected in Pennsylvania, Illinois and New Jersey

As the battle for the Vice-Presidency rolls on the team of Democratic nominee Franklin Hollis secured a number of legal victories yesterday but lost key motions in three of the States where electors ignored statewide results and instead cast “faithless” ballots.

In 15 states, all of whom have laws in place requiring electors to vote in line with the election results Hollis was able to secure a ruling stating that the State’s must replace the electors and vote as pledged. A number of states welcomed the rulings.

Despite the number of victories, the Hollis team suffered significant set-backs in three major states with Pennsylvania, Illinois and New Jersey all ruling due to the state having no law in place they had no power to overturn the vote cast. The Hollis team confirmed that they would appeal the rulings with immediate effect.
 
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NBS.COM
Thursday December 20th 2018

When Inauguration Day Falls on a Sunday, the Constitution Won't Wait

When Inauguration Day falls on a Sunday, the Constitution won't wait.

The iron beams are in place jutting out over Pennsylvania Avenue outside the White House. They will become the roof of the presidential reviewing stand for the Sam Seaborn inaugural next month.

But the traditional parade with its bands and floats will not march on January 20th, the day the Constitution requires the President to be sworn in. That falls on a Sunday this time so by tradition there will only be a small Sunday ceremony for the oath-taking at noon.

This calendar clash happens every few decades. For Owen Lassister's first swearing in 1991, a brief ceremony was held in the Grand Foyer on the state floor of the White House at noon on January 20th, with a group of invited guests. It was televised live but the parties and parades had to wait twenty four hours.

Sam Seaborn will also have to take the oath twice: At noon on January 20th as the Constitution requires, and again on Monday at the US Capitol with the whole world watching.
 
I was thinking about that too, Inauguration Day being on Sunday, and in real life, since January 20th has been Inauguration Day, on the days it fell on Sunday, it was all Presidents being sworn in for their second term (Eisenhower in 1957, Reagan in 1985, and Obama in 2013.) I think that since it is a new President being sworn in, it would be better to just have the regular ceremony on Sunday, the 20th
 
Normally on January 20, while the outgoing & incoming presidents are at the capitol for the swearing in ceremonies! During this period the movers attend to the logistics of moving out the outgoing first family’s belongings & moving in the incoming first family’s belongings! As there is no public ceremony! What will the logistics be for The Walken’s departure? Will the Helicopter ferry them from the South Lawn rather than the East Front? Will the Seaborn’s return to Blair House to facilitate the movers in there task, and return to White House in the late afternoon instead? In the case of the OTL Eisenhower in 1957, Reagan in 1985 & Obama in 2013, all were incumbent presidents and they weren’t moving out, so that was a different situation! I presume the Seaborn’s would escort the Walken’s to either the helicopter or to a limousine at the North Portico! Maybe Sam Seaborn will be gracious to be guests at his public inauguration the following day!
 
January 20th makes better sense, the private & public ceremonies is very hackneyed & old school! As Inauguration Day is a federal holiday & as a church service does take place on the day specified.
 
Let me research inaugurations pre 1937, when Inauguration Day was changed from March 4th to January 20th. I'll see if there was ever a new president that took office on a Sunday with a March 4th inauguration.
 
It looks like there is precedent. Rutherford B. Hayes took office on March 4, 1877, which was a Sunday. Hayes took the Oath of Office in private in the Red Room of the White House on March 4th and took it again publicly on March 5th.
 
In Hayes case their were concerns due to the way he was elected that fighting could breakout. Someone apparently shot at his home before hand.
 
1991 also had January 20th on a Sunday, so unlike OTL, there actually is a modern-day precedent for what to do in this situation. No word on what the "Lassiter Protocol" actually is, but it's not something that hasn't been tackled before in their recent memory.

It could be that Walken might stay an extra night (as a guest) in order to leave ceremonially on the 21st. Seaborn's "private" inauguration will of course be filmed, and he almost certainly will begin all of his Day 1 stuff on Sunday, signing whatever and doing such-and-such in the Oval Office. Likewise, Walken will need to get his last-minute pardons and actions done before noon, and the Executive Office switchover will have to be scheduled in a way around the fact that there's no massive inauguration going on outside.

Maybe have a church service at the National Cathedral attended by President Walken and President-elect Seaborn at around 10 AM, after Walken finishes up his early work, then the cleaners can come in and change the place in time for Seaborn's private swearing-in at noon (Don't forget the Jed Bartlet portrait on the wall!), at which point he'll want to get on asking "What's next?" behind his desk in front of a dozen cameras.

Walken staying an extra night is something I can imagine on the show (there's ice cream in the kitchen, guys). Meanwhile, of course, the Vice President may or may not be sworn in at the Capitol Building. We'll have to hold off on those plans.

The next morning, January 21st, former President Walken and President Seaborn get to leave the White House together to attend the public inauguration. Saves on security costs slightly. Then they can have all the balls Monday night (although a "pre-inauguration" ball on Saturday or Sunday is not out of the question).
 
Yep that would be logical & so traditional changeover is intact, Seaborn & Walken would likely discuss the how’s & why’s to approaching various concerns, could imagine “where’s the ice cream” pow wow, Seaborn I can imagine would be approachable in that kind of a way, Walken likely enjoys cake & ice cream. Remember during the show how Sam & Ainsley Hayes had endless policy oriented discussions, so he’s comfortable in that kind of setting.
 
GREGG INSTITUTE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Modern political history of Ukraine (1991-present)

The current Republic of Ukraine became independent in 1991 with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The first president of the new republic was Leonid Kravchuk, whose presidency was marred by a failing economy and political instability. An early presidential election was triggered in 1994, which was won by Prime Minister Boris Shevchuk. Shevchuk's policies led to a gradually improving economy, but he was bogged down by scandal. Shevchuk won re-election in 1999, due to his opponent being the candidate of the insufficiently popular Communist Party. However, by 2004, Shevchuk had become even more unpopular and was facing opposition leader Vasily Konanov, founder of the National Liberal Party. Konanov, a boisterous personality well loved by the Ukrainian people, was a reformist leader in the Verkhovna Rada and vocal critic of Shevchuk. He often boasted about having the support of United States President Josiah Bartlet, despite the American State Department's fiercely neutral position.

In the first round of the 2004 presidential election, neither candidate won an absolute majority of the vote, prompting a runoff election. However, Shevchuk canceled the second round and declared that he had, in fact, won a majority in the first round. This move prompted protesting across the nation, particularly in the western regions, Konanov's base, and culminated in Shevchuk's resignation. Acting President Pyotr Marchenko then reinstated the second round, in which Shevchuk was still a candidate. Konanov won the runoff in a landslide. Disgraced by the loss and fearing for his life, Shevchuk fled Ukraine for Russia, where he remains today.

As president, Konanov focused on tackling rampant corruption and diversifying the economy. He also sought to move Ukraine away from Russia and closer to Europe, but these ideas were met from hostility from even within the National Liberals. Konanov remained popular and was re-elected by large margins in 2009. His government began to falter in his second term, as his long time deputy Dmitry Rudenko fell in a corruption scandal that turned out to involve many members of the cabinet as Rudenko came under suspicion of treason for collaboration with Russia. Facing arrest and likely execution, Rudenko made a last ditch attempt to overthrow Konanov and save himself. The plot failed and Rudenko was now obviously guilty of treason. Rudenko's trial became a media circus that severely damaged Konanov's image as Rudenko used the opportunity to reveal the president's personal secrets, including his sexual proclivities and the severe extent of his alcoholism, which often inhibited his presidential capacity. Rudenko was convicted of treason and executed, but the damage was done. After the trial, Konanov introduced strict new regulations on the press, enacted in the Rada by his new enforcer, Valentin Sobolevsky.

After Rudenko's execution, his widow Radmila took over his well built party machine and broke away from the Liberals to form the Democratic National Party. The Democrats soon found themselves allied with the Odessa mafia, who were targeted by Konanov in his crackdown on the heroin trade. It is widely believed that this alliance planned the 2011 Independence Day attacks that killed 33 people, including Konanov's wife Marina and Justice Minister Volodymyr Petrenko. However, the attacks ended up boosting Konanov's popularity, casting him as a sympathetic figure. Konanov utilized the outpouring of support to respond with force. The escalation forced his enemies to respond by threatening the life of his son, Deputy Defense Minister Lavrenty Konanov, who fled the country to Belarus.

By 2014, Konanov's image of the jolly warrior was gone and replaced by that of an iron man. Nevertheless, he declared himself "the champion of democracy" and insisted that all he had done was for the people. He was popular enough to win a plurality in the first round, but not enough for a majority. Radmila Rudenko failed to make the runoff. Konanov's opponent in the second round was National Union candidate Danil Adamchuk, who was not very well known. Adamchuk came in second in the first round largely due to splitting among other opposition candidates. Konanov defeated Adamchuk by his greatest margin of his three presidential elections.

Konanov's third term was largely dominated by Russian issues, particularly political instability that created fear in Ukraine. In 2015, Belarus surrendered Lavrenty Konanov to Russian authorities, who charged him with financial crimes, ones denied by both Konanovs. Additionally, the transition from Davydov to Romanova in Russia presented a renewed threat of Russian irredentism. Although these fears proved to be unfounded, Konanov felt the time was right to make another approach to Europe. With the anti-Europe factions of his party mostly gone to Democrats, Konanov was free to pursue his dream of a European-integrated Ukraine. However, the events of his second term were concerning to the western leaders. In order for Ukraine to be welcomed, they set criteria regarding the restoring of press and political freedoms and the loosening of security laws. Konanov relented and began the "re-reform" period. However, this progress was abruptly halted by Konanov's death in 2016. After his death, it was revealed that he had been concealing liver cancer for several years and had four heart attacks in as many years, with the fourth one being fatal.

Konanov, beloved by most in the nation, was succeeded by his not-so popular Prime Minister, Valentin Sobolevsky, who had succeeded Rudenko as Konanov's chief deputy. Sobolevsky was the architect behind Konanov's authoritarian laws and was opposed to the re-reform. Having anticipated Konanov's eventual death, Sobolevsky changed the presidential succession law to make the prime minister first in line to the presidency. As acting president, Konanov scheduled the special presidential election one week after Konanov's funeral so that no other candidate would e able to organize a campaign in time. Konanov received 68% of the vote in the first round in an election with historically low turnout. His nearest opponent was Radmila Rudenko, who received 22% of the vote on a write-in campaign.

Upon being elected to the presidency in his own right, Sobolevsky began directing the Rada to rollback the re-reforms. His successor as Prime Minister, Viktor Andronenko, was a carefully chosen lackey who moved to give the presidency unprecedented power at the expense of the prime minister and the Rada. Sobolevsky also sacked Justice Minister Nastia Konanov, the late president's daughter and preferred successor. In response, the younger Konanov led a dramatic exit from the National Liberal Party to form the new Patriotic Remembrance Party, dedicated to the memory of Vasily Konanov and his true liberal reform. The Remembrance Party also co-opted emerging protest movements to start the Remembrance Rebellion, a youth oriented civil disobedience organization engaged in constant protest against Sobolevsky. In response, Sobolevsky cracked down on civil liberties and introduced a curfew in Kiev.

Presently, the Rebellion, which is adamantly not an armed movement, can be seen everywhere in the country. Their numbers swell in response to whatever unpopular policy Sobolevsky invariably introduces. Meanwhile, Nastia Konanov has declared her intention to challenge him in the upcoming 2019 presidential election. Radmila Rudenko is also likely to run again. Various candidates have been mentioned for the Unionists and the minor parties. Sobolevsky has moved closer to Russia to secure his own position and has abandoned any effort to repatriate Lavrenty Konanov, who was declared Deputy Leader of the Remembrance Party in absentia in 2017.

Presidents of Ukraine
Leonid Kravchuk (Independent) (1991-1994)
Boris Shevchuk (Independent) (1994-2004)*
Pyotr Marchenko (Independent) (2004)
Vasily Konanov (National Liberal) (2004-2016)**
Valentin Sobolevsky (National Liberal) (2016-present)

Cast:
  • Boris Shevchuk (George Dzundza) (Shevchuk was mentioned in the show)
  • Vasily Konanov (Eugene Lazarev) (as seen in 2.06 "The Lame Duck Congress")
  • Valentin Sobolevsky (Boris McGiver)
  • Anastasia "Nastia" Konanov (Vera Farmiga)
  • Lavrenty Konanov (Matt Czuchry)
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Boris Shevchuk
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Vasily Konanov
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Valentin Sobolevsky
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Nastia Konanov
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Lavrenty Konanov
 
Just to change the subject from what will be happening on what the Walkens and Seaborns will be doing while they awkwardly wait for Sam to be able to have public celebrations following his inauguration: a couple of infoboxes about Japan.

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KrEm80R.png
Casting (previously established)
Ayeka Juchiro: Kimiko Yo
Arata Kanzaki: Ken Watanabe

  • Ayeka's name was originally established as "Juchiro", but somehow it got turned into "Junichiro" in several posts. I've gone with the original here, because "Junichiro" is a given name, not a surname.
  • Juchiro's maiden name and her husband's name are my creations, alongside several others in the infoboxes.
  • The party system I've gone with is essentially that the Democratic Party did not split apart after its brief term in government, largely because of the leadership of Kanzaki. This is mostly as an excuse to keep Watanabe around.
 
Just to change the subject from what will be happening on what the Walkens and Seaborns will be doing while they awkwardly wait for Sam to be able to have public celebrations following his inauguration: a couple of infoboxes about Japan.

---------------------​
KrEm80R.png
Casting (previously established)
Ayeka Juchiro: Kimiko Yo
Arata Kanzaki: Ken Watanabe

  • Ayeka's name was originally established as "Juchiro", but somehow it got turned into "Junichiro" in several posts. I've gone with the original here, because "Junichiro" is a given name, not a surname.
  • Juchiro's maiden name and her husband's name are my creations, alongside several others in the infoboxes.
  • The party system I've gone with is essentially that the Democratic Party did not split apart after its brief term in government, largely because of the leadership of Kanzaki. This is mostly as an excuse to keep Watanabe around.
You want help I will try my best.
 
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