2018 Presidential Election

[MHurtado89]

He also tried to pull a Scott Brown and ran in Connecticut four years after losing his re-election bid in New York. Unlike Brown, though, he underperformed (running five points behind Reagan even with John Anderson taking 12% of the vote in CT) and got soundly beaten by charisma magnet Chris Dodd.

Again, it does not invalidate the rest of his career. Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump, that doesn't negate the rest of her public service.

 

[lord caedus]

Still won an election and the rest of his service as a diplomat and judge isn't invalidated by his loss in 1976.

Again, it does not invalidate the rest of his career. Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump, that doesn't negate the rest of her public service.

The point isn't that he lost an election. It's that "he won a Senate election once thanks to a divided opposition, failed to carpetbag his way back into the Senate after losing his re-election bid, served in a sub-cabinet role within the State Department before becoming a federal judge and lived for a long time after retiring" isn't the resume of a "political titan" unless you stretch the term so much it becomes meaningless.

Either way, Buckley never became a senator ITTL (or probably even a federal judge, since TTL Reagan was comatose at the time IOTL when he nominated Buckley to the bench), so discussions on his legacy or scale of accomplishments should probably go to another thread.

 

[MHurtado89]

A questioned was asked and I answered. What's next?

 

[lord caedus]

Thought about this, but with over 60 years of ATL Supreme Court justices (more accurately, over 60 years since the first ATL justice--Crouch--appeared. Here's some lists about judicial longevity on the bench & bonus lists of the number of court seats filled by president and TTL's failed Supreme Court nominations of the past 75+ years.

Underline indicates a chief justice, italics indicates a sitting justice. For Ashland and Rutledge, (AJ) denotes the years served as an associate justice & (CJ) the years served as chief justice.

Longest-serving Supreme Court justices

1. Joseph Crouch (Kennedy): 38 years, 76 days [served: 1961-1999]
2. William O. Douglas (F. Roosevelt) : 36 years, 206 days [served: 1939-1975]
3. William J. Brennan (Eisenhower): 34 years, 277 days [served: 1956-1991]
4. John Marshall (J. Adams): 34 years, 152 days [served: 1801-1835]
5. John M. Harlan (Hayes): 33 years, 308 days [served: 1877-1911]
6. Joseph Story (Madison): 33 years, 219 days [served: 1812-1845]
7. Byron White (Kennedy): 33 years, 74 days [served: 1962-1995]
8. James M. Wayne (Jackson): 32 years, 172 days [served: 1835-1867]
9. Roy Ashland (Nixon/Lassiter): 32 years, 69 days [served: 1972-1992 (AJ), 1992-2004 (CJ)]
10. John Maclean (Jackson): 32 years, 23 days [served: 1829-1861]

Shortest-serving Supreme Court justices

1. Ronald Lin [Seaborn]: 299 days [served: 2023-present]
2. James F. Byrnes (F. Roosevelt): 1 year, 87 days [served: 1941-1942]
3. Thomas Johnson (Washington): 1 year, 119 days [served: 1791-1793]
4. John Rutledge (Washington): 1 year, 156 days [served: 1790-1791 (AJ), 1795 (CJ)]
5. Robert Trimble (J.Q. Adams): 2 years, 70 days [served: 1826-1828]
6. Howell E. Jackson (B. Harrison): 2 years, 157 days [served: 1893-1895]
7. Arthur Goldberg (Kennedy): 2 years, 297 days [served: 1962-1965]
8. Abe Fortas (L. Johnson): 3 years, 222 days [served: 1965-1969]
9. Alfred Moore (J. Adams): 3 years, 280 days [served: 1800-1804]
10. Olivia Emmett Franklin (Seaborn): 3 years, 295 days [served: 2020-present]

Number of Supreme Court justices appointed by president since 1945
5: Eisenhower, Lassiter
4: Truman
3: Kennedy, Nixon, Newman, Bartlet, Walken
2: L. Johnson, Seaborn*
1: Ford, Reagan**, Santos
0: Carter

*- One nomination currently before the Senate
**- Acting President George P. Bush nominated & the Senate confirmed Chief Justice Henry Staub while Reagan was incapacitated

Failed Supreme Court nominations since 1945

• 1954: John M. Harlan II (nominated by Dwight Eisenhower) to replace Robert H. Jackson: Nomination lapsed
  • Re-nominated and confirmed to the position by Eisenhower [served: 1955-1971]
• 1968: Abe Fortas (nominated by Lyndon B. Johnson) to replace Chief Justice Earl Warren: Nomination withdrawn
  • Position filled by Warren E. Burger (Nixon) [served: 1969-1986]
• 1968: Homer Thornberry (nominated by Lyndon B. Johnson) to replace Abe Fortas: Nomination withdrawn
  • Fortas remained on the court as an associate justice
• 1969: Clement Haynsworth (nominated by Richard Nixon) to replace Abe Fortas: Rejected by Senate (45-55)
• 1969: G. Harrold Carswell (nominated by Richard Nixon) to replace Abe Fortas: Rejected by Senate (45-51)
  • Position filled by Harry Blackmun (Nixon) [served: 1970-1987]
• 1991: Owen Brady (nominated by Owen Lassiter) to replace Chief Justice Henry Staub: Rejected by Senate (37-73)
  • Position filled by Roy Ashland (Lassiter) [served as chief: 1992-2004]
• 2012: Cassie Rushton (nominated by Glen Allen Walken) to replace Patrick Lafayette: Nomination withdrawn
  • Position filled by Judi Rand (Walken) [served: 2012-present]

----------------------
​

Crouch is, as I said way back when I did his infobox, the record holder both ITTL and IOTL for the longest tenure on the Supreme Court. His selection and Byron White sticking around a few years longer than OTL mean that Kennedy, one of the ten presidents ITTL who didn't serve a full term in office (IOTL it is 11 including Biden, who still has four months left in his term), appointed two of the longest-serving justices in court history.

Lin is currently the record-holder ITTL for the shortest-serving justice, but that will change if Randy is confirmed and/or if he remains on the bench for at least a few more months (a pretty safe bet since he's currently the only justice both under 55 and who doesn't have a pancreas full of cancer).

Carter is both IOTL & ITTL the only president to serve at least one full term without appointing a Supreme Court justice and one of only four (alongside William Henry Harrison, Zachary Taylor & Andrew Johnson) to not do so during their presidency. Reagan ITTL was technically still the president when Henry Staub was nominated and confirmed as chief justice, so he avoids joining the "no Supreme Court appointments" club.

I also calculated that, as of the end of July 2024, ITTL Republican and Democratic presidents have each appointed 19 justices to the Supreme Court since the end of WWII. IOTL, it's much more lopsided- Republican presidents have appointed 21 justices since 1945 while Democratic presidents have appointed just 13 despite both being in office for roughly the same amount of time.

The first five failed nominations are all OTL:

• Eisenhower nominated Harlan late in 1954 to replace Jackson, but the Senate didn't act on his nomination before the term ended, owing to southern senators (correctly) believing he was hostile to the system of racial segregation in the south. Eisenhower re-nominated Harlan soon after the beginning of the next (84th) Congress in January 1955 anyways, Harlan was eventually confirmed. A point of interest is that Harlan went before the Senate Judiciary Committee to answer questions from senators, which didn't happen very often for Supreme Court nominees beforehand. Every OTL and ATL nominee since has appeared in person before the Judiciary Committee after being nominated.​
• LBJ tried to elevate his crony Fortas to the chief justice position after Earl Warren announced his retirement and simultaneously nominated Thornberry to replace Fortas as an associate justice. The Senate balked and Johnson withdrew Fortas' nomination, which made Thornberry's nomination moot.​
• Fortas himself would resign a few months into Nixon's term because of a shady business dealing Fortas had with an indicted financier (which almost seems quaint from an OTL 2024 perspective given how Clarence Thomas has accepted at least $2 million in gifts since becoming a Supreme Court justice and doesn't seem to feel the need to step down to protect the integrity of the court) and Nixon fell on his face by nominating two white southern conservatives born during the nadir of American race relations who *shockingly* didn't have great records on civil rights (Carswell gets a bonus for the press uncovering a speech he made 20 years earlier where he openly declared he was a white supremacist in favor of racial segregation). His third choice, Harry Blackmun, turned into one of the Warren Court's strongest liberals.​

Brady's failed nomination as chief justice was established by Tim Thomason way back in the old thread, and Rushton's failed nomination was a plot point in Walken's first term. Brady, who was appointed as an associate justice a year later, is TTL's most recent example of a failed Supreme Court nominee who later served on the court (Harlan is the most recent justice IOTL).

In terms of the current nine justices:

• Longest-serving justices: Roberto Mendoza is the most senior sitting justice. He will pass Maclean for 10th place all-time if he remains on the court through April 30, 2032.​
• Shortest-serving justice: Franklin will pass William H. Moody to become the 11th-shortest justice in court history if she serves to September 13, 2024. Byrnes will return to being the shortest-serving justice in court history if Lin serves to January 2, 2025.​
• Failed nominations: Judi Rand is the only sitting justice who was nominated to their current position after the original nomination was withdrawn or rejected.​

 

[lord caedus]

Wilson Randy confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court

Friday, August 2nd, 2024

Attorney General Wilson Randy has been confirmed by the Senate to be the 119th justice of the United States Supreme Court, with the Senate voting earlier today to approve President Sam Seaborn's third nominee to the nation's highest court.

Randy, who has served as Attorney General for just under 18 months, was easily confirmed by a 71-29 margin, with 20 Republicans joining Democrats to approve Randy's confirmation. Vice President Bobby Tyler took a break from campaigning for Democrats up in this year's November midterms to preside over the roll call vote, in his role as President of the Senate.

President Seaborn welcomed the news, stating that Justice-designate Randy will be a "strong addition to the Supreme Court", saying that Randy had shown "a tremendous intellect, devotion to the cause of justice, dedication to upholding the rule of law, and a clear understanding of the effects Supreme Court decisions have on the daily lives of every American."

A long-time district court judge before he was chosen to lead the Department of Justice, Randy is set to replace retiring justice Joe Quincy, who announced in May that he had been diagnosed with stage IV (terminal) pancreatic cancer. Quincy, who is one of the youngest current justices on the court, will be replaced with the oldest new justice in Supreme Court history—only chief justices Charles E. Hughes (a former associate justice) and Harlan F. Stone (a sitting associate justice) were confirmed at an older age than Randy, who will turn 66 years old next month.

A member of the court's conservative bloc, Quincy's untimely retirement shifts the court further to the left, with Randy, based on his prior rulings as a federal judge predicted to be liberal-leaning moderate on the court, set to become the new swing justice. Unlike Seaborn's most recent prior nomination of Ronald Lin to succeed the late conservative justice Jackson Hoyt, Randy's nomination proceeded much more smoothly, perhaps aided by Randy's age, moderation, and prior overwhelming confirmation as attorney general by the same Senate in February 2023.

With Quincy retiring upon Randy's swearing-in ceremony, only two justices (Judi Rand and Howard Weston, both appointed by Glen Allen Walken) will have been appointed by Republican presidents, the most lopsided balance in nearly seven decades (thanks to Democrats Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry Truman controlling the White House for two decades, Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower assumed office with all nine justices having been appointed by a Democratic president).

Randy will be sworn in as the newest justice on the court in a ceremony held tomorrow, with his deputy Lisa Terrell becoming acting attorney general until a permanent successor is confirmed.

 

[lord caedus]

And the confirmation roll call vote, for those interested:

 

[lord caedus]

Wrapping up the Randy confirmation storyline, here's the newest justice:

And the current court:

Cast (all previously established)
Glenn Close as Evelyn Baker Lang
Edward James Olmos as Roberto Mendoza
William Fichtner as Christopher Mulready
Kevin Costner as Edward Appleton
Dianne Wiest as Judi Rand
Thomas Gibson as Howard Weston
Viola Davis as Olivia Emmett Franklin
Ke Huy Quan as Ronald Lin
Bryan Cranston as Wilson Randy

Spoiler: Randy

• I got the picture from this infobox from here, where someone photoshopped Cranston's head onto a judge's body for an article announcing his portrayal of a judge in the show Your Honor.
• In a twist that should shock absolutely none of our loyal readers, I littered references to Cranston's roles in Breaking Bad, Malcolm in the Middle, Seinfeld and The X-Files (which inspired Vince Gilligan years later to cast Cranston as Walter White).
  • Randy began his service on the federal bench the same day Malcolm in the Middle premiered IRL.
  • His birthday is the same as that of his break-out character.
  • His wife's name is a references to Jane Kaczmarek (who played his wife on Malcolm in the Middle) and the character of Skyler White (note the different spelling), Walter's wife on Breaking Bad.
• Reminder that the numbering for both Cabinet secretaries and state governors in some of my older infoboxes are out-of-date after I compiled the list of TTL's Cabinet secretaries from 1981 to 2019 and the list of state governors. The numbering on (governors) or derived from (Cabinet secretaries) the lists supersede anything you see on any of my other infoboxes unless it's mentioned otherwise.
• The chief judge position on the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Michigan rotates among the justices who meet the criteria (be under 65, on the court at least a year & have not served as the chief before) for a seven-year term, or until they turn 70, with age restrictions being waved if there's no eligible judges otherwise.
• My biography of Randy can come across here: he is not a native Michigander, he grew up in the NJ/NY area (born in NJ & attended Columbia for undergrad), moved to Michigan for law school and stayed there rather than move home. He probably would have lived out a quiet life away from the spotlight if not for getting diagnosed with lung cancer, getting a federal judgeship from Jed Bartlet.
  • His background also plays into my explanation for his unusual name:
    • Randy's family (at least his father's side) immigrated from Ireland at some point in the 19th century and settled in New York City, becoming fiercely loyal Tammany Hall Democrats. Randy's grandfather named all of his sons after Democratic political figures (there was a Jackson Randy decades before there was Randy Jackson), and Randy's father got his first and middle names from President Woodrow Wilson and Tammany boss Charles Murphy, respectively. Wilson I would grow up, get married, and be lucky to avoid an Irish Catholic stereotype by having his several children during the post-war baby boom, amount of children than his father, but give his firstborn son his name to spite people trying to explain a goofy name a dozen years after a character's debut honor his family's unique connection to New York City history.
    • While their names are not listed, Randy and his wife have three sons: Wilson III, Malcolm and Brody.
  • Randy's birthplace is a bit of a reference to his actor. Cranston IRL was born in Hollywood, and Fort Lee, NJ was the epicenter of the American filmmaking industry for the first few decades of the 20th century before the industry moved to the West Coast & eventually centralized in Hollywood.

Spoiler: Supreme Court

• This is an updated graphic of the one I posted after Franklin's confirmation almost 4 years ago now. Lin and Randy have replaced Jackson Hoyt & Joe Quincy, respectively.
• As I've mentioned in the notes for doing Lin's infobox after his confirmation storyline & now the Randy storyline, the last two Supreme Court appointments were not planned to take place prior to the actors for both Jackson Hoyt (William Hurt) and Joe Quincy (Matthew Perry) passing away. The decision to write them off came largely as a result of the actors' death, with some time passed to both be respectful and in Hoyt's case, not interfere with pre-planned storylines.
  
  Of course since both characters were written as part of the court's conservative bloc, this has ended up shifting TTL's Supreme Court to the left in a way that is pretty at odds with the current OTL court. Which is probably better for the inhabitants of TWWverse, given some of the decisions the court has handed down recently (Sorry Sam, you can be charged for a crime even if it's an "official act") and also goes to show how random the court's make-up and subsequent rulings can be within certain parameters (i.e.- there's only so much that luck and political hardball around appointments can help one party if the other party has a period of sustained dominance at the presidential level).
  
  In another bit of "somehow the writers predict the future", I pushed for a newly-elected Democratic president to replace an aging liberal justice with a black woman ahead of the midterms two years before OTL's writers got around to it. Rachel Carmine (Dawn Wells)'s actress passed away less than three months after we had written her character off the court, so in retrospect, it looks like an even better move, even if we obviously had no way of knowing it would happen.
• Randy is now the first justice to replace someone who wasn't mentioned or shown to be on the court during the show (even if Joe Quincy himself is a show character). All of the other eight justices' predecessors were either shown (Crouch & Ashland in the case of Mendoza & Lang) or mentioned (from Brady for Mulready to Hoyt for Lin).
• This Supreme Court is still the most diverse in either OTL or TTL history: a third of the court are female (Baker, Rand, Franklin) or a member of a minority group (Mendoza, Franklin, Lin), with white men (who included every justice appointed prior to 1967) now make up only a plurality of members (Mulready, Appleton, Weston, Randy).
• Yes, it's going to be a bit confusing with Justices Rand & Randy, but I'm sure that there's never going to be typos or the like that will get instantly noticed and commented on in future Supreme Court articles.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Tuesday August 6th, 2024

Donors criticizing former VP Hunter over lack of "campaigning" in the mid-terms
Several Republican donors have started to show "concern" over former Vice-President Jack Hunter's lack of campaigning for Republican candidates across the country as the mid-term elections enter the last three months.

One donor, who spoke to NBS on the agreement of keeping his name secret said "a few of us (donors) are becoming very concerned that he (Hunter) isn't campaigning fiercely enough for some of our excellent candidates especially in the key states such as in Florida which has both a Senate and Gubernatorial election, Ohio, New Mexico and Virginia". Indeed the former Vice-President who is regarded as the presumptive presidential front runner for 2026 has only been out on the stump in his own state for Kurt Scheiffer in the gubernatorial race and in neighbouring Wisconsin for the likely Republican Senate nominee Terry Hodges since mid-June.

When contacted by NBS, a spokesman for the former Vice-President said that he was "supporting Republican candidates across the nation, and would be showing his support in the closing three months of the campaign".

 

[lord caedus]

As I mentioned to Mark, it's weird how the final three candidates we had for Sam's VP nominee in 2022 now accidentally mirror the OTL Democratic Party's three most recent VP nominees:

• Moderate white senator who was formerly governor of a swing state that has drifted towards the Democrats in recent cycles (Ben Newell/Tim Kaine)
• Charismatic, history-making black politician who becomes the obvious successor to the most recent Democratic president (Bobby Tyler/Kamala Harris)
• Moderate governor of the great state of Minnesota who previously represented a rural congressional district and whose lieutenant governor would be a historic first for the state (Jarrod Daniels/Tim Walz)

Although I can say I'm glad we didn't accidentally predict J.D. Vance by making Carlin Cassidy (senator from a Midwest swing state whose brand of politics deviates slightly from the traditional GOP formulation and who got into politics as a result of his entertainment career) the 2022 GOP VP nominee after he lost all of his likeability and his ability to seem normal after suffering some kind of couch-related head trauma.

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

Slightly off topic - but still to do with the show.

Did we ever see Charlie's sister? I mean, he was putting his sister through school, but did she ever make an appearance?

And has she been cast in this TL?

 

[lord caedus]

Deana didn't make an appearance on the show, no.

And no, she hasn't been cast. She's a private citizen, and I imagine given her mother and brother's career paths, she became involved in some sort of public service after she graduated college in 2006 (maybe a teacher in the DC school system?).

 

[lord caedus]

Top Stories This Week

Democratic Senate nominee admits to past DUI convictions
Wednesday, August 14th, 2024

Texas state senator Roland Hinojosa (D), the Democratic Party's nominee for this year's U.S. Senate election, admitted today that he'd twice been convicted of driving under the influence (DUI) before embarking on his political career.

Speaking at his campaign headquarters in Corpus Christi, Hinojosa admitted that he'd been convicted of driving under the influence of alcohol, once in 2004 and again in 2007, with the latter resulting in a suspended drivers license and over $5,000 in court fines. "I have been up front about my past addiction to alcohol," Hinojosa said at a press conference. "I have never tried to conceal my past, or deny that I took actions under the influence that were reckless, irresponsible and harmful to myself and the people who cared about me."

Hinojosa, who was elected first to the state house in 2014 and then the state senate in 2020, stopped drinking after his second arrest, his campaign says. He is challenging incumbent senator Davis Roberts (R), who admitted in 2021 to having had an affair with a staff member in his Washington office.

Opposition wins legislature as Turkey heads towards presidential runoff
Sunday, August 11th, 2024

Two opposition alliances opposed to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP, Turkish: Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi) won a slim combined majority in the country's legislature on Sunday, in the first elections held since the country's recent war in Cyprus. The broad tent Nation Alliance and the left wing Labour and Freedom alliance has been projected to win 306 of the 600 seats in the Grand National Assembly, Turkey's unicameral legislature, and leaders from both alliances have already pledged to work together to pass legislation aimed at restoring the rule of law and freedom of speech, which its members claim have been under attack since the AKP gained power in 2002. The two groups fell far short of the two-thirds threshold needed for both groups' goal of reversing the 2017 change to Turkey's form of government to a presidential system from a parliamentary one.

The new legislature was elected alongside the first round of the country's presidential election. President Ahmed Faria, who has led the country since 2009, has become d deeply popular following Turkey's retreat from Cyprus and the devastating impact of sanctions on Turkey for its invasion and occupation of the Republic of Cyprus from 2021 to 2023. While many of the sanctions have been repealed, the country is still experiencing the highest unemployment in decades. With Faria being barred from running for re-election, AKP nominee Süleyman Demir, the country's former interior minister, came in second behind popular Istanbul mayor Mansur Sarıgül, the candidate backed by both opposition alliances in the first round of the country's presidential election.

The runoff election between Demir and Sarıgül will be held on August 25, with the results hinging largely on how voters who selected right-wing candidate Mehmet Oğuz in the first round choose in the runoff.

Brisbane to host the 2032 Olympics
Tuesday, August 13th, 2024

Coming just days after the completion of the 2024 Summer Olympic games in Seoul, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) reported on Tuesday that Brisbane, Australia would host the 2032 Olympic Games. IOC Chair Michael Chopin announced that Brisbane, as the only city's bid to meet the IOC's requirements, would host the 35th iteration of the modern Summer Olympics. It will be the third Olympic Games hosted by Australia, and the second hosted by the city of Brisbane, who hosted the 1992 games.

Australian Prime Minister Adrian Aldridge praised the selection, noting that infrastructure from the city's previous Olympics had remained "in good working order" and would be "ready to welcome Olympians" ahead of the 2032 games. Several other cities criticized changes in IOC bidding procedures ahead of Tuesday's announcement that resulted in other bids being disqualified. The next Olympic games will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa in 2028, marking the first time an Olympic Games will be held in Africa.

EPA announces completion of St. Clair oil spill cleanup
Monday, August 12th, 2024

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced on Monday that the cleanup of the 2021 oil spill near St. Clair, Michigan has been completed. EPA Administrator Mary-Beth Shotten said that clean-up operations had remediated the environmental impact of the spill, and that all but the most contaminated areas, measuring approximately one square mile, would be reopened to the public at the end of the month.

The October 2021 spill of 1.2 million gallons of crude oil was one of the worst inland oil spills in US history and nearly caused the contamination of drinking water for thousands of people in Michigan and Ontario. Subsequent investigations discovered a widespread pattern of political interference by Michigan state political leaders and ended the presidential campaign of then-governor Ben Laurion (R). Clean up operations are estimated to have cost $1.5 billion, with the likelihood that Enbridge Energy, the owner of the pipeline that ruptured, will be required to pay several million more dollars in fines and costs for continued environmental monitoring of the spill zone.

 

[lord caedus]

Sunday, August 18th 2024

SPD narrowly remain largest party in German Bundestag elections

Berlin— The governing Social Democratic Party (SPD; Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands) has narrowly retained its status as the largest party in the German Bundestag (lower house of parliament) in today's elections after beginning the election campaign well behind the center-right CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union) coalition. Results project that the SPD will hold 178 seats in the Bundestag, only nine more than the CDU, making it likely that SPD leader and incumbent chancellor Alex Baumann will be the one to form a third government since he took office in 2016.

The turnaround came after the election campaign began with the SPD's poll numbers dragging thanks to both several high-profile disputes involving resettled refugees, as well as decisions by the Federal Constitutional Court that forced the government to massively scale back a touted decarbonization program as well as investments in the renewable energy sector. The former led to the populist right-wing DB (German Movement; Deutsche Bewegung) overtaking the SPD in some polls that already had the party falling behind the CDU/CSU. However, the DB rise proved to be temporary, and disputes within the CDU/CSU coalition over the country's new electoral system law that both the CSU (which only runs candidates in the state of Bavaria) and the Left (the successor to the former ruling party of East Germany that attracts most of its support from that region of the now-unified Germany) undermined coalition candidate Rolf Goltz's credibility on being able to form a government after the race.

The coming weeks will see negotiations to form a new government that can command a majority in the Bundestag. Since returning to power in 2016, the SPD has governed in a grand coalition with the CDU/CSU, something both parties publicly expressed opposition to before the results of today's election. But parliamentary arithmetic has made that existence unlikely to last.

The stated potential partners for either a SPD or CDU/CSU-led government, the Greens and liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), both saw slides from their electoral performances four years ago, and combined would not be able to provide either Baumann or Goltz with a majority. As for the DB and the Left, both of whom would enable either the SPD or CDU/CSU to form a government with a third party, the mainstream parties have enacted a cordon sanitaire around both, flatly ruling out including either in government.

-----------------------------
​

OOC: Die infobox:

​

Cast
Daniel Brühl as Alex Baumann
Uwe Preuss as Rolf Goltz (new character)
Jördis Triebel as Franziska Weide
Nina Hoss as Ana Bock
Marleen Lohse as Katja Machel
Matthias Brandt as Norbert Pfeiffer

Spoiler: Notes

• For the notations next to the names of some party leaders and some of the seats they ran in, see the notes from the previous German election article.
  • Unlike in TTL's 2020, the Greens made Bock their chancellor-candidate, which is why she's in the box without the Greens' male co-leader.
• The convention of shading the list seat map apparently changed between when I made the 2020 box and this years', so now the list seat map is shaded by the largest party's percentage of the list vote in each state.
• IRL the Germans have changed their electoral system since their most recent election (don't worry, it's still a massive headache to calculate and allocate seats for fictional elections) because previously, the system of having levelling and compensatory seats had caused the Bundestag to add 137 seats to make it the largest freely-elected legislative chamber in the world (still something like a quarter of the size of China's rubber stamp legislature).
  • To make a long story short, the Bundestag is capped at 630 seats and they eliminated the levelling and compensatory seats that were causing the legislature to balloon, and changed it so that the number of seats a party gets is totally dependent on the number of party votes it gets, all parties that receive more than 5% of the vote or win three constituency seats qualifying for seats.
  • The weird thing about this reform is the solution to what happens in a overhang situation. In the case where a party gets more constituency seats in a state than its party votes entitle it to, the share of the vote of that party's constituency-winning candidates is ranked and only the X (number of seats the party vote entitles the party to in that state) most candidates are seated.
  • Since the first election IOTL to use this system won't happen until 2025, I had to be creative in showing what "party won this constituency, but the representative wasn't seated" would look like on a Wikipedia map where the winning party's vote share is shaded, so I just went with the unseated party's color and white striping (gray would have been my first choice, but the CDU's color palette precluded that).
• A graphic of TTL's German (West German before 1990) chancellors is here.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Friday August 23rd, 2024

Where do our politicians go on holiday?
By most people's standards, Michael Duggan deserves a holiday ahead on this bank holiday weekend here in the UK. Only last month he spent his three year anniversary of being in office with a "working party" at Chequers. He has been working without a majority since last June's general election without an overall majority, only being kept in office by a unholy alliance of the NPP, DUP and UUP. He has come under increasing attacks from both sides of his own party after poor local and EU results, and then a bungled reshuffle in June.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman said that the Prime Minister was "intending to have a short break over this weekend with his family and close friends at an undisclosed location" but one believed to be in the UK. One lobby hack was heard to comment after this statement "close friends so he hasn't invited any member of the cabinet then". Political summer holiday's can be fraught affairs. Prime ministers have to be careful to pitch their trips right: not so lavish as to appear out of touch with the ordinary voters, but not so consciously down to earth that the destination seems affected.

There are many ways to holiday when PM. On his first break as PM in the summer of 1996, Ricky Meyer upset the Spanish government by spending three days in Gibraltar before travelling to Tangier, Morocco for a further week. Other prime ministers trying to seem more down to earth have taken breaks here in the UK. In 2005, Maureen Graty was mocked by many as she was photographed walking along Great Yarmouth seafront in the rain with her husband Freddie, with her special branch protection covering them with an umbrella. Andrew Carter was known for his love of caravanning, and in his first summer in office in 2011, he spent the best part of two weeks driving himself across the country from Scarborough to Blackpool, insisting that he stayed in public caravan parks, which drove his special branch officers mad. In August 2016, Richard Samuels was at his farm in Scotland when Bahji forces overtook UK embassy in Jabal Nafusah in Qumar. He was flown by helicopter back to Horse Gardens Parade at the back of Downing Street in dramatic fashion.

These days, politicians aren't afraid to go aboard but do so with caution, the Whips office has apparently issued instructions to all it's MP's both in the government and on the back benchers about being careful and not be spotted falling out of bars or night clubs in Magaluf at 3am.

 

[lord caedus]

Family of former Cabinet secretary sues Rep. King for defamation over Libyan claims
Monday, August 19th, 2024

Congresswoman Patty King (R-GA) was the subject of a defamation lawsuit filed in federal court on Monday by several family members of former Secretary of Education Lawrence Lessig, with Lessig's attorneys claiming the far-right congresswoman "knowingly and repeatedly slandering" Lessig and his family by falsely alleging that the former Cabinet secretary engaged his family in an attempt to coordinate the sale of uranium to Libya under its former dictator Muammar Gaddafi. According to the court filings, King repeated the allegations on multiple platforms over a three-week span from the middle of July until early April of this year, despite attempts by Lessig and his attorneys to retract the statements about Lessig's family.

Attorneys for the Lessig family stated that the allegations caused Lessig's wife Tina and his three adult children to be subjected to repeated harassment and threats alongside the former secretary, several of which have been referred to law enforcement. King has claimed in multiple interviews on far-right and conspiracist platforms that Lessig tried to violate US law to smuggle uranium to Gaddafi during his time as a Cabinet secretary under Matt Santos, claiming that Lessig was used as a "middleman" for a "nefarious deep state cabal" that would try to use a nuclear-armed Libya to destroy Israel and America's standing in the world.

Since Lessig, a legal scholar renown for his work on helping various nations write or re-write their constitutions, is a public figure, he is not named as a party in the lawsuit. The suit alleges that King "falsely and knowingly" claimed that the Lessigs "utilized reported connections within the federal government...breaking multiple federal laws in ways that have...previously resulted in convictions and executions for espionage and treason." King's attorneys denied the charges and said they will fight the lawsuit.

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New government formed in Qumar

Thursday, August 23rd, 2024

One month after Qumar's most recent election, the people of Qumar awoke to the news on Thursday that a new government had been formed. Prime Minister Zuben Ahmed, leader of the broad tent Reform Party, had agreed to a three-party deal that is expected to keep him in power for another four years. Ahmed, who has dominated Qumari politics since the 2007 overthrow of Sultan Ali Usef ibn Shareef, announced that he would form a minority coalition with the pro-business Tahaluf ("Alliance") while the secular conservative Qumari National Front (QNF) has agreed to support the government on confidence and supply motions in exchange for the inclusion of several QNF proposals in future government budgets.

Ahmed faced calls from his previous coalition partner, the Democratic Reform Party (DRP), to include a promise to not seek re-election in a coalition agreement, prompting him to end negotiations with the DRP. DRP leader Hassan Farhat, a former protégé of Ahmed, said the promise was to allow a new generation of leadership to arise in post-occupation Qumar, since Ahmed will be 74 years old at the next scheduled general election in 2029.

Once confirmed by the Parliament of Qumar, Ahmed's government is expected to oversee the withdrawal of almost all US troops from Qumar by the year's end, with exceptions made for US naval forces stationed at Jasken to aid in anti-piracy efforts and at the leased Kalifa Air Base just outside the city, which the Qumari government has leased to the United States until 2041.

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Congressman and former Badgers football legend Booby Cornbaugh dies

Wednesday, August 22nd, 2024

The family of Congressman Robert "Booby" Cornbaugh (R-WI) announced on Wednesday that the congressman and Wisconsin Badgers football legend died in his Waukesha home earlier that morning. No cause of death was released.

Nicknamed "Mr. Nebraska" as a high school rushing phenom in the state of the same name, Cornbaugh became a legend in his adopted home state for setting rushing records (since broken) for the Badgers during his college career (1976 to 1979). With knee injuries derailing hopes for a professional career, Cornbaugh became a businessman in the Milwaukee area before running for Congress in 2004. In nearly two decades in Congress, Cornbaugh was a strong advocate for military veterans as well as investment in various cutting-edge military technologies. He had won his party's nomination for an 11th term representing the state's fifth congressional district covering most of Milwaukee's northern and western suburbs less than two weeks before his death.

Governor Chris Bock (D-WI) ordered flags statewide to be lowered until Thursday evening following the news of Cornbaugh's death. Per Wisconsin state law, a special election will be held concurrently with the general election in November to fill the remainder of Cornbaugh's final term. Republican party leaders are expected to meet early next week to decide on a replacement candidate, with their selection likely to be the nominee for both the special and general elections.

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Tuesday, August 20th 2024

Multinational stabilization forces begin to arrive in Haiti

Port-au-Prince— The United Nations-sponsored Multinational Security and Stabilization Force (MSSF) forces began arriving on Tuesday, with the first thousand personnel from Kenya, the lead organizer of the effort, arriving in Port-au-Prince. The effort, negotiated by various UN member-states, comes months after the Haitian government requested international assistance to help restore order to the country following a breakdown at all levels of government, and the subsequent filling of the vacuum by criminal gangs.

While not an official UN mission, the worldwide organization has encouraged its member-states to contribute resources and manpower to MSSF. The United States, while not sending any peacekeeping or police forces, has pledged to act as the main logistical and support force for the operation, coordinating the arrival of forces and supplies with both the Haitian government and neighboring Dominican Republic until the planned reopening of Toussaint Louverture International Airport in Port-au-Prince, which has been shuttered since March owing to fighting and gang warfare.

President Sam Seaborn hosted Kenyan president Patrick Nyaruai at the White House on Wednesday to celebrate the arrival of the first MSSF personnel in Haiti and announce an increase in American military and non-military aid to Kenya for their leadership on the endeavor.

Alongside Kenya, a dozen other nations, mostly from the Caribbean and Africa, have pledged to provide troops and other personnel to restore order in Haiti. Roughly 500 combat troops from the African nation of Benin are expected to arrive by the next week.

 

[lord caedus]

Tuesday, August 27th 2024

Faria relents on recognizing opposition victory after protests roil Turkey

Istanbul— Less than 48 hours after publicly calling into question the results of Sunday's presidential election, Turkish president Ahmed Faria said that he has recognized opposition candidate Mansur Sarıgül as the country's new president-elect after protests erupted across Turkey following his statements.

"In spite of my own feeling about the veracity of reported results from several locations across our nation," Faria said in an address to the Turkish people, "I do not believe that the questionable results in those areas would constitute a reason to deny the overall result as determined by the Supreme Election Council [Turkey's national elections authority]."

After Faria's first public statements calling the result of the presidential election in doubt, thousands of protestors poured into the streets across Turkey to protest what many feared would be an attempt to annul the election's results. In Istanbul, where Sarıgül serves as mayor, officials estimated close to half a million protestors had gathered to voice their opposition to any attempt to prevent the president-elect from taking office. Across the rest of Turkey's urban centers, including Ankara, Antalya, Gaziantep and Izmir, tens of thousands were estimated to have gathered to call on Faria to respect the election results.

The victory of Sarıgül, a member of the Republican People's Party (CHP; Turkish: Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi) over the nominee of Faria's Justice and Development Party (AKP; Turkish: Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi) marks the end two decades of political dominance by Faria and his party, which has caused substantial change to Turkish politics since coming to power in 2003. Under Faria, the country transitioned from a parliamentary system to an American-style presidential one, moved away from previous governments' attempts to become a candidate member of the European Union, and have simultaneously worked to prevent the type of military coups that plagued Turkish governments in the 20th century while also accelerating the pace of the country's democratic backsliding and growth of corruption. On the geopolitical stage, Turkey attempted to assert its status as a regional power more forcefully than at any point since the foundation of modern Turkey following World War I, with Turkey hosting the peace talks that brought about the end of the Israel-Palestinian conflict, served as a vital ally for the United Nations during the Syrian War, and fought two wars against its closest European neighbors.

The second conflict, which saw Turkey invade and occupy the Republic of Cyprus from 2021 to 2023, resulted in Turkey being subjected to numerous economic sanctions that devastated its economy, and strained relations with both other NATO members as well as Russia. While the country's last quarterly economic report showed economic growth increasing, the nation's economy has not yet recovered from where it was prior to the invasion, and the country's suspension from most NATO activities (which NATO Secretary-General Petr Tomčíkov said would be reviewed at NATO's next summit in July 2025) resulted in Faria's popularity dipping and leading to the AKP-led coalition losing control of the country's parliament in the legislative elections held earlier this month.

Secretary of State Paris Stray said that Faria's statement was "welcome news" and said that the United States looked forward to "continuing the long partnership between America and Turkey" after President-elect Sarıgül's inauguration on Saturday.

 

[lord caedus]

Special Feature: Congressional Retirements

Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024

Labor Day traditionally marks the end of summer, and in all but the four states yet to have their primaries, the start of the fall campaign where the two major party nominees begin to make their case to undecided voters.

With little likelihood of a primary upset appearing on the horizon in the four states (for those wondering: Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island) who are waiting until the last minute to choose their nominees, it appears that we finally have a clue as to which faces will, regardless of this November's results, not be back on Capitol Hill. At least, not in their current roles, since five of the representatives on our list have won their party's nomination for the Senate race in their respective states.

Courtesy of the NBS politics team, here are the 51 members of Congress who have decided not to run for re-election to their current job, or failed to be re-nominated by their party. Note that this list only includes current members, meaning former congresswoman Lydia Hemmer (D-PA), who resigned her seat in April after losing her party's primary, is not listed.

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Senate​

DE: Joseph McKenna (D) (in office since 1996) — Joseph McKenna has spent just about as much time in the mend as he has in the Senate chamber for most of this past term, and after a reportedly fraught behind-the-scenes battle among Delaware Democratic bigwigs, he's decided to let someone younger (and healthier) take over. Attorney General Jack Poole (D) has all but sewn up the nomination to succeed him, and looks set to start his own long Senate career.

HI: Arthur Breech (D) (in office since 1995) — The former Senate Majority Leader seemed content to spend his final term out of the spot light, but now he's decided it's time for some fresh blood in the Aloha State. He'll get his wish, with the party's new nominee Michelle Takei (D) (see below) being over three decades his junior.

MT: George Wirth (R) (in office since 2019) — Wirth was persuaded to come out of retirement in 2018 to topple his successor, Stephanie Leary (D), but now seems to be relishing the thought of spending the rest of his golden years in Montana instead of Washington. Unlike most of his colleagues who are choosing to leave the Senate, though, there's no clear favorite as to which party will hold his seat after he leaves.

PA: Carlin Cassidy (R) (in office since 2013) — Cassidy's decision to run for governor instead of re-election upended both this race, and the Keystone State's gubernatorial contest. He's the only retiring senator still looking to have a job in politics after his term ends in November, and he's in a dead heat with incumbent governor Malcolm Power (D) in the polls right now. The race to succeed him is similarly deadlocked between Power's lieutenant Rob Cramer (D) and GOP nominee Martha Shaw (R), with that likely to be the case on Election Day.

TN: Dan Hammond (R) (in office since 1989) — The only sitting senator to switch parties while in office (he won his first race as a Democrat back in 1988 and joined the GOP two years later), Hammond already seems like a relic of a bygone time thanks to conservative radio host Jenna Jacobs (R) winning the primary to succeed him. While Democrats have been trying to hammer Jacobs on controversial statements she's made in the past, it doesn't appear to be working in a state as ruby-red as Tennessee.

WA: William Wiley (D) (in office since 1983) — Wiley is justifiably a legend on Capitol Hill, and not just because of his record of legislative achievements and behind-the-scenes mentoring of scores of prominent Democratic senators now in top roles in the party. He's the last bridge Congress has to the Watergate era, and the 1970s in general, and is one of only a handful of congressmen left who can speak from experience about the tumultuous days of Ronald Reagan's incapacitation and debates over steering the nation through that unprecedented political crisis. His expected successor, state attorney general Karl Marquardt (D), is in an unenviable position when it comes to trying to follow Wiley up.

WY: Herman Morton (R) (in office since 1989) — The nation's least-populous state will get a new senior senator when Morton steps down after six terms in January, and unlike Morton, Kent Harris (R) is known to show a bit more flexibility than the famously stubborn Morton, who was disputing the health link between cigarette smoke and cancer as late as 2005 (although being the former CEO of a tobacco company probably made him a bit reluctant to admit to what is now understood to be a scientific fact). Congressman Abel Sheen (R) (see below) will be his successor, and only time will tell if he follows the mold of his predecessor or future colleague.

House of Representatives​

AL-02: Bryan Mason (R) (in office since 2015) — Alabama was forced to add a second majority-black district after the Supreme Court found its map unfairly diluted the power of African-American voters. Mason's district was the one that was reconfigured, and although the Republican-controlled state legislature did its best to make the seat as evenly split as possible while still fulfilling the court's order, it still ended up with a slight Democratic tilt. That appeared to be enough to cause Mason to announce he wasn't running in the newly-drawn 2nd district this November.

AR-02: Jack Stanton (D) (in office since 2005) — Stanton's long political career in Arkansas (prior to his return to Congress in 2005, he was a two-term governor and spent a combined 7 previous terms in Congress) is the only reason this seat has remained blue into the 2020s and with his retirement, Democrats can say goodbye to one of the last southern seats they hold that isn't majority-minority.

CA-15: George Simmell (D) (in office since 1997) — While it's not his long-sought goal of universal healthcare in the United States, Simmell has taken the passage of the American Health Care Protection Act (AHCPA) as his cue to pass the torch to the next generation of activists for universal healthcare. Him being 84 years old also probably played a big role in his decision to retire.

CA-31: Kellen Cahill (D) (in office since 1993) — Cahill's retirement opens up a prime spot for ambitious House Democrats looking to replace him as the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee. He's rumored to be in talks with MSNBC to become a reoccurring contributor once he leaves office.

CA-37: Russell Lewis (D) (in office since 1999) — Despite his status as typically one of the most fiercely partisan Democrats in the lower chamber, members of Congress from both parties will be sad to see the veteran of the civil rights movement go, as he was noted for his evenhandedness in running the House Administration Committee.

CA-38: Erin Baker (D) (in office since 2003) — After her brother, the former vice president Eric Baker, had another stroke, it seemed like only a matter of time before Erin Baker decided to leave politics. Whether it's due to her sibling's ill health or, as rumored, her own recent health scares, nobody can yet be certain.

CO-03: Sidney Ball (R) (in office since 2021) — Ball has been one of the few House Republicans from the class that got swept in with the 2020 midterms that has been able to forge a constructive relationship now that the GOP is in the minority. Sadly, this attitude did not make him popular among Republican primary voters in his district and he lost the nomination to Dan Nugent, a Grand Junction businessman who has pledged to introduce articles of impeachment against President Seaborn on his first day in office.

FL-01: Lawrence Locke (R) (in office since 2004) — Locke has one of the most distinguished military records of anyone in Congress, having served with distinction in both Vietnam and Desert Storm. But in his mid-80s, the old soldier has decided now is the time to fade away from public life.

FL-06: Scott McGregor (R) (in office since 2019) — McGregor is making the leap from Congress after two terms to try and unseat governor Jessica Gelsey (D). Like the concurrent Senate race in Florida, the polling is showing tight margins between both major party candidates.

FL-17: Tim Johnson (R) (in office since 2019) — The most bizarre political gaffe of the year so far belongs to Johnson, who admitted to disliking cats so much he wanted permission to have his troops shoot stray ones while he was in Qumar. Needless to say, timing the admission while he's challenging Alicia DeSantos (D) instead of running for re-election in his safe House seat also makes it a case of poor political timing.

GA-06: Elton Russell (R) (in office since 2001) — Like a few other southern states, Georgia was forced to redraw its boundaries after the ones passed by the GOP-led legislature were ruled to have unconstitutionally diluted the African-American vote. With the sixth being moved to the other side of the Atlanta metro area and the redistricting placing him in the same area as other Republican House members, Russell instead opted to retire after 24 years rather than fight a costly primary.

GA-14: Patty King (R) (in office since 2021) — Patty King's off-the-wall claims and embrace of the most bigoted or fringe conspiracy theories made her a household name in Congress despite being a sophomore congresswoman with little standing within the party. But her failed attempt to take Charlie Forrester (R)'s Senate seat has left her a lame duck, much to the palpable relief of congressional Republican leaders.

HI-01: Michelle Takei (D) (in office since 2023) — One term is all she wrote for Michelle Takei, at least in the House. Arthur Breech (D)'s retirement (see above) made her change which office she filed to run for this year. With both her state and district solidly blue, Takei is assured of both succeeding Breech and having her seat remain in Democratic hands.

IL-06: J.R. Jennsen (D) (in office since 2003) — Being the chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee usually comes with things like not having to worry about a primary challenger, but Jennsen appeared to be utterly unprepared when the long-bubbling discontent over his social conservatism (compared to most Democrats) boiled over this cycle. This seat is one of the few that contains part of Chicago that could conceivably be won by a Republican, so Democrats may have buyer's remorse should the GOP win this seat by a narrow margin in November.

IN-05: Stanley Carmichael (R) (in office since 2019) — Carmichael is calling it quits after two terms in Congress, reportedly due to disliking the culture in Washington. With his district 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole, the GOP will just have to hope that his successor takes a better liking to DC while voting on the party-line like Carmichael did.

LA-06: Patricia Stecker (R) (in office since 2005) — Louisiana's sixth district will dramatically change its shape in the next Congress, thanks to the Supreme Court's decision in Dickson v. Monaghan last year that ruled that Alabama's map unconstitutionally diluted African-American voters by only drawing one majority-minority district when their share of the population entitled them to two. The new sixth district, which stretches across the state from Baton Rouge to Shreveport, will almost certainly send a Democrat to Congress, hence Stecker deciding to not even bother trying to keep the seat in its new configuration.

MD-05: Brianna Fritz (D) (in office since 2021) — Fritz is retiring in tragic circumstances, having been diagnosed with early-onset Parkinson's disease last year at the age of 48. Her district's close proximity to DC has meant that she's been able to keep up a somewhat active schedule for a House member, but it's expected that she will not return to Congress during the lame duck session after the midterms.

MA-01: Mark Sellner (D) (in office since 2015) — The former speaker crashed and burned hard during his three and a half years heading "the people's house", culminating with him getting ousted by his own party in the middle of a term. After somehow losing his seat in the 2010 race, he made an unexpected comeback four years later and has spent a decade as a largely irrelevant backbencher, clearly hoping for some sort of executive appointment from a Democratic president to cap his career. Unfortunately, the only Democrat in the White House since Sellner came back was someone who had a front row seat to his mismanagement of the House and disintegration of trust with the Santos White House, and so he'll have to go home empty-handed. Again.

MA-04: Eli Gold (D) (in office since 1991) — Gold is heading out on top, having served as chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee since the Democrats retook the House in 2022. His retirement has already added more fuel to the fire in terms of Democratic Party intrigue over committee chairs should the party retain the majority in the next Congress.

MI-08: Richard Arthur (D) (in office since 1995) — Fifteen terms is enough for Arthur, who turned himself into an institution in the eighth district and kept it in the Democratic column despite it sliding more and more towards the middle as it grew in size to encompass more than just the area around Flint. Without Arthur on their side, the Democrats could very easily lose this seat in November.

MS-03: Curtis Spurling (R) (in office since 2001) — One of the most loyally pro-gun congressman on Capitol Hill (he even briefly remained on the NRA board of directors after being elected until RNC ethics lawyers wisely advised him to resign), Spurling fought so vociferously against the Protect Our Communities Act that he nearly gave himself a heart attack at a pro-gun rally (he left early complaining of chest pains, but reportedly was only suffering from an irregular heartbeat). He took that as a sign to retire, and is leaving the fight for a maximalist interpretation of the Second Amendment up to the next generation of lawmakers.

MT-01: Steve McGinnis (R) (in office since 2023) — McGinnis is running to replace George Wirth (R) now that he's decided to retire for good (see above). With McGinnis only being in Congress for a year, it will remain to be seen if his relative lack of statewide prominence versus his opponent, former at-large congressman Alan Price (D)'s, can be compensated for by Montana's Republican lean.

NE-03: Gail Trent (R) (in office since 2001) — Age has finally caught up with Trent, one of the staunchest allies of the American Christian Assembly and National Right to Life in Congress. At 87, the wear and tear of travel to and from DC and around in her district, which takes up three-quarters of Nebraska's landmass, has finally got to be too much stress on her body.

NJ-03: Ty Branson (D) (in office since 2011) — There's perhaps no better scandal showing the dangers of sports gambling than the one involving Branson, himself a World Series-winning former relief pitcher. The seven-term congressman is under both a House ethics and Department of Justice investigation after he reportedly used campaign funds to bet on sporting events after tapping out his personal funds. His best move so far appears to be declining to seek re-election.

NJ-05: D.R. Perry (D) (in office since 2011) — Perry got elected as a 65 year-old teacher in 2010 with a plan to serve only four years. That eventually turned into 14, with him pledging to not be in office when he turns 80 in 2025. With a spirited race to replace him now under way, it appears that he's finally making his leave of Washington.

NY-09: Sharon Pine (D) (in office since 2017) — Unusually among NYC Democrats, Pine is calling it a career after only four terms in Congress. She hasn't released a statement as to why she's opting to leave her incredibly safe (D+25) seat, but it's likely she's planning a return to the law practice she abandoned when she was elected to Congress.

NY-17: Carol Powell (D) (in office since 2013) — The likelihood of a "six year itch" dragging the Democratic ticket down is what's likely behind Powell choosing to leave this year after holding on to her swing seat or the last couple of cycles. Republicans are making a serious play for this seat as part of their strategy to take the House.

NC-06: Beverly Carr (D) (in office since 2021) — North Carolina's Republican-controlled legislature redrew the Tarheel State's legislative maps last year after being forced to drawn more neutral lines by court order in 2022. Carr's district went from a swing district to one that's solidly Republican, hence her deciding not to run again this year.

NC-14: Jack Jefferson (D) (in office since 2023) — The midterm redistricting in North Carolina also affected Jefferson's Charlotte-based seat, turning it from one that leans Democratic to one that's a safe Republican seat. That change also caused Jefferson to decide to be a one-term congressman.

OH-06: Jerry Hoff (R) (in office since 2011) — Hoff could have kept his seat until he died. But he's stepping down to spend time with his family, at least according to the press release his office issued when he announced his retirement.

PA-05: Jacob Klein (D) (in office since 1987) — Klein has a solid case to be made as one of the most effective and consequential chairs of the House Financial Services committee in living memory, having led the powerful committee with only a two-year break since 2007. While conservatives love to point to him being in control of the powerful committee when the recessions of the late 2000s and early 2020s hit, his chairmanship has generally coincided with steady economic growth that few of his predecessors can match.

SC-07: Phil Wheaton (R) (in office since 2021) — Ah, a good old-fashioned political sex scandal. Wheaton quickly garnered a reputation as an insatiable horndog in Congress and when his wife finally divorced him, it was revealed that he'd had affairs with multiple staffers in his two terms in Washington. Needless to say, he's not going to have a job come January.

TN-01: Alan Spicer (R) (in office since 1999) — After decades of conservative politicians who publicly expressing deep religious commitment being exposed as hypocrites, Alan Spicer is able to commit the sin of pride at being able to hang up his jersey with his personal reputation in tact. Democrats on the Hill will probably miss having his support on issues like IVF, adoption and paid family leave when his pro-family positions collide with the GOP orthodoxy.

TX-01: Charles Miner (R) (in office since 2003) — Miner probably wishes he had another shot at leading the House Armed Services Committee after only spending one Congress with the gavel. But health issues got in the way, and he'll have to see who his caucus selects to replace him as their leading member after November.

TX-16: Jose Sutter (D) (in office since 2019) — President Seaborn becoming the first non-Texan Democratic nominee since Jimmy Carter to carry the Lone Star State made Sutter feel comfortable giving up his safe El Paso seat to challenge governor Adam De Haan (R). While Democrats are all but certain to keep the 16th district, it's still an uphill battle to put one of their own in the governor's mansion for the first time since 2017.

TX-21: Benedicto Romero (R) (in office since 2001) — Romero has been in an awkward position within the Republican Party for years, as one of the most moderate Republicans in Congress who has periodically been approached by Democrats over the years to get him to switch parties. While he's been able to scare off primary threats by his extremely high showing among Hispanic voters in his district, he finally had to admit defeat when attorney Dale Key, who has deep connections with both the Texas and national GOP, made it known he was interested in the seat after Romero made a show about criticizing GOP presidential nominee Alan Duke in the 2022 campaign. Rather than switch parties to keep the seat, Romero has decided to retire instead.

TX-30: Eddie Cullen (D) (in office since 1993) — Despite being in Congress for over three decades at this point, Cullen is still relatively young by House committee chair standards. But 32 years is a long time to spend at any one job, and he's decided that's long enough to spend in Congress, even if he's going out as the lead Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee.

VA-01: John Marks (R) (in office since 1997) — Marks has been a reliable foot-soldier for the GOP for years, but now they'll have to hope that his replacement is as reliable and low-key as he was.

VA-11: Mark Andrews (D) (in office since 2011) — Rob Buchanan (R) is one of the most vulnerable Republican senators this cycle, and Andrews is hoping that Virginia's shift to a bluish-purple state will be enough to put him over the edge in a year where the conventional wisdom dictates Republicans should have the edge. His House seat, however, is dark blue and will easily stay within Democratic hands.

WA-02: Randy Sims (D) (in office since 2011) — Sims tried to leap up to the Senate now that William Wiley (D) is ending his long Senate career (see above). But unfortunately for him, state attorney general Karl Marquardt (D) was more to the liking of Washington Democratic voters. He'll hand off his seat along the northern coast of Washington to another Democrat.

WA-06: Patty Thompson-Cline (D) (in office since 2017) — The announcement that William Wiley (D) was retiring (see above) kick-started a game of political musical chairs among Washington Democrats, with Thompson-Cline as the most notable example. Initially, she and fellow representative Randy Sims (D) (see above) were set to face off for the Democratic nomination, but when state attorney general Karl Marquardt (D) decided to throw his hat into the primary instead of run for re-election, Thompson-Cline switched to running to be Marquardt's successor. Given Washington's strong Democratic bent, she almost certainly will take over as the Evergreen State's newest chief law enforcement official.

WV-01: John Cleveland (R) (in office since 2021) — Cleveland is supposedly leaving Washington to spend time with his family. But according to rumors, it's because he was caught in an affair with a college-aged staffer less than one-third his age.

WY-AL: Abel Sheen (R) (in office since 2010) — Sheen is making the leap to the Senate with the retirement of senior senator Herman Morton (R) (see above). He's already effectively done the job of senator already, having been Wyoming's sole representative to the House for over a dozen years. It's just that now, he'll have to face the state's voters every six years instead of every two.

Honorable Mention

MP-AL: Patrick Inos (D) (in office since 2009) — Inos is the delegate for the Northern Mariana Islands and the longest-serving of the six non-voting members of the House. He was an independent who caucused with the Democrats until 2022, when he formally joined the party. He's expected to remain involved in political affairs in the Pacific commonwealth.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Sunday September 8th, 2024

Rumours being spread on-line regards Socialist Alliance Deputy Leader "defection"

Social media accounts in the past couple of days have been awash with rumours and speculation that the Socialist Alliance's Deputy Leader Jackie Morgan was about to defect to the Green party. A picture of Morgan sitting in a café in Bristol was posted on a Socialist Alliance supporting page on Facebook claiming that she was meeting Green Party Leader Karen Oliver.

Over the course of the past year Morgan has come under increasing attacks from many within her own party including Masoud Abbasi who narrowly failed to win the seat of Bradford West at last years general election. Mr Abbasi was critical of Morgan and her supposed lack of support for his failed attempt to gets election defeat overturned in the courts. Morgan who twice ran for London Mayor in 2014 & 2018 (she actually finished in 2nd place in 2014 ahead of the Labour candidate, Malcom Sinton) has support in what most observers call the " Stanley wing" of the party (those supporters and activists who broadly follow the policy agenda of party founder Ben Stanley), but Mr Abbasi has been attempting to push the party more towards what is being termed "Muslim sectarian socialism" based on areas with high Muslim populations.

Supporters of Abbasi have also been attacking Morgan's personal life. 40, she had her first child out of marriage aged just 16, is now on her second marriage, whilst her first Husband who she had two children with is currently serving twenty years in prison for drug dealing offences, with many posts on Socialist Alliance supporting message boards attacking the fact that she has five children with three different Fathers. Mr Abbasi although he has distanced himself from direct attacks on Morgan's personal life he has done little to prevent his supporters from the personal attacks, whilst Leader Martin Abbott has turned according to many of Morgan's supporters a "blind eye" to the "disgusting personal attacks" on his own deputy.

The party which holds it's two day party conference in Birmingham at the end of the month is bound to be fractious with the supporters of Abbasi being ready to make a move to remove Morgan from the post of Deputy leader.

 

[lord caedus]

Seaborn nominates Terrell to be new Attorney General
Monday, September 9th, 2024

President Sam Seaborn today announced that he would nominate Deputy Attorney General Lisa Terrell to be the nation's next Attorney General, filling the role left vacant by the elevation of Wilson Randy to the Supreme Court.

Seaborn announced the nomination, reportedly after choosing Terrell over severally more politically-prominent choices who the president is worried could be a distraction with hearings likely to take place early next month. Sources in the administration say that the president was hoping to delay choosing a new Attorney General until after the midterms, but was persuaded that it would be harder for an Acting Attorney General to exert control over the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and other agencies within the Department of Justice.

Terrell has served as Deputy Attorney General since 2020. Prior to that, she had been a longtime federal prosecutor, serving as the acting US Attorney for the Northern District of Ohio in 2011 following the inauguration of Glen Allen Walken and the confirmation of a new US Attorney. She was chosen for that role in her own right following Seaborn's inauguration in 2019, but left after being offered the role of Deputy Attorney General. During her appointment, despite her being a registered Democrat, both of Ohio's Republican senators (Dylan Garrison and Ruth Norton-Stewart) praised her selection, saying she was "well-regarded" and "thoroughly professional prosecutor...who did not let politics determine her course of action."

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Monday, September 9th 2024

Central African Federation unveils new flag

New Louisville — The Central African Federation has unveiled the new flag that the country will adopt in 2025.

President Grégoire Ndima led a ceremony unveiling the country's new flag, which emerged after a special committee made up of members of the country's parliament and prominent citizens from each of the ten states that make up the federation. The new flag consists of a red and green field with a black diagonal stripe bisecting it surrounded by a white border, with the country's symbol of three white Katanga crosses in the top-left corner of the flag. The flag, which had been one that was proposed during the country's early years of independence, is rich with symbolism. According to the committee's report, made available to the press ahead of the conference, the red is meant to symbolize the blood of those who fought for the nation's independence from France, black the people of the country with the white border symbolizing the people's desire for peace, and green the country's verdant lands.

Ndima said it was a "proud day for all peoples of the CAF" that the country has been able to "overcome painful divisions" that have long stifled attempts to create unifying national symbols. The country's current flag, patterned after that of the United Nations, was adopted as a placeholder shortly after its independence, and again re-adopted after the country returned to democratic rule in 1988. A committee to replace the national flag was supposed to meet in 1993, but by then the country had broken out into civil war, which would not end until 2001. Post-war recovery and the political crises from the assassination of beloved president Benjamin Boma in 2010 further delayed plans to adopt new national symbols, as were long-standing issues related to symbols appropriated by militias and factions accused of war crimes during the country's civil war.

A campaign to find a new name for the national capital, whose name recalls the nation's colonial past, is similarly ongoing. However, no candidate has yet emerged that has pleased members of both the Lingala- and Swahili-speaking regions, who account for a majority of the CAF population.

The flag will begin flying on the country's next independence day, which happens to be January 1, 2025.

 

[lord caedus]

A helpful graphic for all the flags the Central African Federation used since becoming independent:

Spoiler: Notes

The CAF flag that was previously used was just the United Federation of Planets flag with the country's name in French replacing the UFP' name and Katanga crosses replacing the field of stars.

So, I figured that I might as well keep the theme going for the previous flags:

• The first interim flag is a nod to the first Federation symbol shown in the original series of Star Trek: a red pennant with stars and the abbreviation "UFP" on it.
• The military regime's flag is a nod to that of the Terran Empire (the evil version of the Federation in the Mirror Universe) as shown in Star Trek: Enterprise.

I did, though, figure that realistically the CAF would not have a flag that looks so out of place with other African flags, and more importantly, so similar to the UN flag (which the Federation flag is obviously based upon) that I imagine they would feel pressure to change it to something else. Their incoming flag looks a bit like the OTL flag of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (which remember is still called "Zaire" here and still uses this neat design for its flag) and the flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis, but it at least has the "sub-Saharan African country that became independent in the mid-20th century" vibe instead of the "Captain Sisko violated the Prime Directive and changed a pre-warp culture's society" vibe.