2018 Presidential Election

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Wednesday June 12th, 2024

Reshuffle Live

14:15 Still no news on who the new Home Secretary is going to be.
Earlier on at PMQ's with the Prime-Minister absent due to the reshuffle, it was the battle of the Deputies, and as you can imagine Labour's Victoria Thorpe had a lot of material to use. George Tamm for the Tories did his best but most the Tory back benches looked very glum through most of the whole session.
14: 25 We have a new Chief Whip and this is a surprise, it is the current Secretary of State for Equality & Minorities Alison Ashworth (she only joined the Cabinet in Duggan's mini-mini Reshuffle after the election last year).
14:30 Number Ten has also confirmed that Clive Hurst currently at Procurement and Government Administration will be the new Transport & National Infrastructure Secretary.
 
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Wednesday June 12th, 2024

Reshuffle Live

Breaking News Breaking news

15: 30 Malcolm Rennie will be the new Home Secretary
The current Health & Social Care Secretary will replace Karen Purvis who was sacked yesterday. The job was then offered the BBC understands to former Work & Pensions Secretary Martin Greenwell, Nigel Jay and Adam Jackson yesterday all of whom turned it down. It makes Rennie, the fourth choice for the job.
15:35 Charlie Hayden who had been strongly tipped for promotion, has replaced Rennie at Health, he moves from Communities, Housing, Regional & Rural Affairs.
15:40 These appointments still leave three posts in the cabinet to be filled:

  • Communities, Housing, Regional & Rural Affairs.
  • Equality & Minorities
  • Procurement & Government Admin
 
Bring back Samuels!
There's actually video evidence of how the Conservative leadership's pitch to Samuels that would have brought him back into the frontbench went:

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Surely Duggan can’t survive much longer
We all have bad weeks.

It's just that usually "attracted international outrage by appearing to disrespect WWII veterans" would stand out and not be just one in a series of blunders and general bad news.
 
Last of the gubernatorial maps, taking us all the way up to the most recently-concluded gubernatorial elections in 2023.

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Gubernatorial Election Maps (1985-2023)
Reagan/Bush (1985-1986)Newman (1987-1990) Lassiter (1991-1998)Bartlet (1999-2006) Santos (2007-2010) Walken (2011-2018)Seaborn (2019-2023)
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Seaborn (2019-2023)
2019

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Kentucky: Ed Barrie (R) re-elected
Mississippi: Alan Fisk (D) re-elected
Oregon: Walter Collins (R) re-elected
South Carolina: Ethan Butler (R) re-elected
Vermont: Janet Lorton (D) re-elected

2020
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Alaska: Cathy Gardener (R) re-elected
Arkansas: Carol-Anne Slater (R) term-limited; Thomas Booth (R) elected – R HOLD
Delaware: Annelise Byers (D) re-elected
Florida: James Ritchie (R) term-limited; Jessica Gelsey (D) elected – D GAIN
Idaho
: David Arkin (R) re-elected
Illinois: Barry Robinson (D) defeated Teddy Hart (R)D GAIN
Kansas
: Peter Gault (R) term-limited; Michael Harding (R) elected – R HOLD
Maine: James Adamson (R) re-elected
Maryland: Owen Wells (R) re-elected
Minnesota: Jarrod Daniels (D) re-elected
Missouri: Lucas Foley (R) term-limited; Tim Moss (R) elected – R HOLD
Nebraska: Ben Lane (R) re-elected
North Dakota: Sandra Middleton (R) re-elected
Oklahoma: Katherine Williams (R) defeated Rob Kenny (D)R GAIN
Pennsylvania
: Morgan Mitchell (R) term-limited; Malcolm Power (D) elected – D GAIN
Rhode Island
: Leon Stansberry (D) term-limited; Miles Leonard (D) elected – D HOLD
Texas: Adam De Haan (R) re-elected
Utah: John Elderton (R) re-elected
Washington: Daniel Edmonds (D) re-elected
West Virginia: Jim McDowell (R) re-elected
Wyoming: Simon Watts (R) re-elected
2021
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New Jersey: Kelly Hoffman (D) re-elected
Virginia: Bobby Tyler (D) term-limited; Hugh Harrison (D) elected – D HOLD
2022
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Alabama: Edward West (R) re-elected
Arizona: Scott Phillips (R) term-limited; Kate Fernandez (D) elected – D GAIN
California
: Abbie Heilemann (D) term-limited; Gael Cordova (D) elected – D HOLD
Colorado: Lance McKey (D) re-elected
Connecticut: Cal Beaushaw (D) re-elected
Georgia: Jeremy Jefferson (R) re-elected
Hawaii: Shane Burns (D) re-elected
Indiana: Matthew Stillman (R) re-elected
Iowa: James Edwards (D) re-elected
Louisiana: Kevin Haynes (R) re-elected
Massachusetts: Sam Rust (D) re-elected
Michigan: Ben Laurion (R) term-limited; Dianne Maguire (D) elected – D GAIN
Montana
: Monty Fisher (R) re-elected
Nevada: Dalton Creel (D) re-elected
New Hampshire: Elizabeth Bartlet (D) re-elected
New Mexico: William R. Diego (D) re-elected
New York: Hakeem El-Amin (D) re-elected
North Carolina: David McNamara (R) term-limited; Erica Johnson (D) elected – D GAIN
Ohio: Josie Bail (D) defeated Art Scheider (R)D GAIN
South Dakota
: Richard Dean (R) re-elected
Tennessee: Terrance Klein (D) re-elected
Wisconsin: Chris Bock (D) defeated Mark Croft (R)D GAIN
2023
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Kentucky: Mark Hampton (R) re-elected
Mississippi: Alan Fisk (D) term-limited; Jonas Watts (R) elected – R GAIN
Oregon
: Walter Collins (R) term-limited; Kristin Pullman (D) elected – D GAIN
South Carolina
: Ethan Butler (R) term-limited; Todd Winters (R) elected – R HOLD
Vermont: Janet Lorton (D) re-elected
 
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Thursday June 13th, 2024

Duggan completes the "longest reshuffle"

Micheal Duggan completed the reshuffle of his cabinet this morning with three further appointments. Charlotte Cooper, MP for Truro & Falmouth who was only elected to the House of the Commons, three years ago at a by-election is the new Secretary of State for Communities, Housing, Regional & Rural Affairs. James Lamb is the new Secretary of State for Equality & Minorities, the openly gay MP for Orpington, had been Minister of State under Alison Ashworth, and the reshuffle was completed with the appointment of Tamworth MP, Harry Owers as the Secretary of State for Procurement and Administration.

One unnamed Conservative MP told the BBC "Well it has been the longest reshuffle" referencing in part the troubles the Prime Minister got himself into last week by leaving the 80th anniversary of D-Day early, (D-Day is known as "the longest day"). Another unnamed back bencher said "The PM has probably brought himself a bit of time by recovering with the appointments yesterday and today. He is bringing in some new younger blood" but he added "He may have made a tactical error as he now has three serious leadership rivals outside the cabinet, ready to move if required".
 
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The new Conservative Cabinet June 13th, 2024
PostMPSeat
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, First Lord of the Treasury & Minister for the Civil ServiceMichael DugganLancaster & Fleetwood
Deputy Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Minister of State for the Cabinet office, Paymaster General & Chancellor of the Duchy of LancasterGeorge TammHarwich & North Essex
Conservative Party Chairman, Elections Co-Coordinator & Minister without portfolioDavid NightingalePeterborough
Secretary of State for Foreign,Commonwealth & International Development Affairs, First Secretary of StateAdam JacksonWindsor
Chancellor of the ExchequerNigel JayHemel Hempstead
Chief Secretary to the TreasuryDavid HollisBosworth
Secretary of State for the Home DepartmentMalcolm RennieTorbay
Secretary of State for DefenceMatthew StoneForest of Dean
Secretary of State for Business & Industrial Development, President of the Board of TradeJeremy FordKingswood
Secretary of State for Health & Social CareCharlie HaydenBromley & Chislehurst
Secretary of State for Work & PensionsSimon HarperBerwick Upon Tweed
Secretary of State for Communities, Housing, Regional & Rural AffairsCharlotte CooperTruro & Falmouth
Secretary of State for Culture, Heritage, Media and SportOliver YoungSouth Ribble
Secretary of State for Education & SkillsSimon JohnMonmouth
Secretary of State for Transport & National InfrastructureClive Hurst Old Bexley and Sidcup
Secretary of State for Environment & FoodNicholas BamberRibble Valley
Secretary of State for Equality & MinoritiesJames LambOrpington
Lord Chancellor & Secretary of State for JusticeTamwar MalikCalder Valley
Leader of the House of Commons, Lord Privy Seal & Lord President of the CouncilHelen DuncanKenilworth & Southam
Attorney GeneralPeter BrownCorby
Secretary of State for Procurement & Government AdministrationHarry OwersTamworth
Secretary of State for Constitutional Reform & DevolutionJohn WebberHornchurch & Upminister
Secretary of State for WalesGareth Patterson Montgomeryshire
Secretary of State for ScotlandGail WhiteRenfrewshire East
Secretary of State for Northern IrelandThomas HoltCrewe & Nantwich
Leader of the House of Lords & Lord Keeper of the Privy SealRoseanne Rice (The Baroness Rice of Tring)N/A
Chief Whip & Parliamentary secretary to the TreasuryAlison AshworthAldridge-Brownhills
 
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Seaborn chooses AG Wilson Randy for Supreme Court

Thursday, June 13th, 2024

President Seaborn today announced his nomination of Attorney General Wilson Randy to be the Supreme Court's 119th justice, choosing a moderate former district court judge to replace ailing Associate Justice Joe Quincy, who has been diagnosed with terminal pancreatic cancer.

Speaking at a Rose Garden ceremony, Seaborn called Randy, who at 65 would be the oldest new justice in the court's history, a "nominee whose sense of justice, dedication and excellence has been widely recognized, not just in his past role as a federal district court judge, but now as the country's chief law enforcement officer."

Flanked by Randy's family and Vice President Bobby Tyler, Seaborn pointed to Randy's quick confirmation as Attorney General at the beginning of the current Congress as a reason to avoid what he called "unnecessary acts of political hardball" that "degrades the trust and faith in our institutions", alluding to the filibuster of his most recent nominee, Ronald Lin, by Senate Republicans. While Lin was ultimately confirmed after a deal was reached by a bipartisan "gang" of senators, the White House does not appear willing to engage in another costly political battle heading into a midterm election with a narrow majority in the Senate and fear that the political tide from Seaborn's 2022 landslide re-election will recede far enough to flip the House to the GOP as well.

Appointed to the United States District Court for the Western District of Michigan by President Bartlet in 2000, Randy amassed a moderate judicial record, slowly gaining recognition in legal circles for the quality of his opinions and legal writing. He also famously oversaw the trial of former congressman Roger Baker (R-MI) as a result of the Penetrobe Engineering scandal during his service as the court's chief judge from 2008 to 2015. Seaborn chose him to replace the retiring George Montgomery as Attorney General during his second term, a role that Randy was easily appointed to by a 74-23 margin in February 2023.

Like Seaborn's previous nomination, Randy is expected to move the court towards the left, which could result in the uneasy agreement among the "Gang of Fourteen" regarding the filibuster to collapse, despite reports (confirmed by NBS) that Justice Quincy has privately urged several Republican senators to refrain from using the filibuster on "qualified" nominees, likely referring to judicial nominees' ratings by the American Bar Association (ABA).

Several liberal groups have criticized the nomination, having urged Seaborn to pick another progressive nominee of diverse background. Norma Russell of Democracy In Action issued a statement expressing disappointment with what she called a "nomination meant to please intransigent Republican senators instead of continuing his sterling work to bring about a more progressive and diverse federal judiciary", specifically criticizing Seaborn's decision not to select a woman to replace Quincy, as that would result in a Supreme Court with near-gender parity (four women to five men).

Should he be confirmed, Randy would be the first sitting Attorney General to be appointed to the Supreme Court since President Truman appointed Tom C. Clark in 1949, and the oldest person confirmed to a seat on the Supreme Court since President Franklin D. Roosevelt elevated 68 year-old Associate Justice Harlan F. Stone to Chief Justice in 1941.
 
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Breakdown of the UK Results of the EU Elections
Part One

East Midlands (6 seats +1)
PartyVotes%MEPs elected
NPP445,61334.08%2
Labour301,65223.07%2
Conservative212,86116.28%1
Lib Dem207,17315.84%1
Green92,8367.10%0
Socialist Alliance42,2883.23%0
Independent5,1280.39%0
1,307,5516
East of England (8 seats+1)
PartyVotes%MEPs elected
NPP783,37543.86%4
Labour401,90822.50%2
Lib Dem242,21713.56%1
Conservative183,09110.25%1
Anglia First77,4034.33%
Green76,6604.29%
Socialist Alliance18,0411.01%
Independent3,5610.20%
1,786,2568
London (10 seats +2)
PartyVotes%MEPs elected
Labour795,82932.42%4
Lib Dem696,56728.38%3
Conservative440,96517.96%2
NPP281,56011.47%1
Green110,4644.50%
Socialist Alliance90,5083.69%
London Indep.31,3181.28%
Independent7,5410.31%
2,454,75210
 
Breakdown of the UK Results of the EU Elections
Part Two

North East (3 seats no change)
PartyVotes%MEPs elected
NPP355,21946.56%2
Labour160,59621.05%1
Conservative97,35012.76%
Lib Dem90,86511.91%
Green39,5965.19%
Socialist Alliance19,3022.53%
762,9283
North West (9 seats +1)
PartyVotes%MEPs elected
NPP754,52441.16%4
Labour469,98425.64%3
Conservative289,61615.80%1
Lib Dem203,28111.09%1
Green77,9034.25%
Socialist Alliance24,1961.32%
Independent13,5060.74%
1,833,0109
South East (11 seats +1)
PartyVotes%MEPs elected
NPP1,121,18642.51%5
Labour778,39429.51%4
Conservative295,42611.20%1
Lib Dem274,32410.40%1
Green128,4574.87%
Socialist Alliance22,1570.84%
Independent17,7860.67%
2,637,73011
 
Breakdown of the UK Results of the EU Elections
Part Three

South West (7 seats +1)
PartyVotes%MEPs elected
NPP750,10343.90%4
Labour335,73619.65%1
Lib Dem315,76918.48%1
Conservative181,63510.63%1
Green86,6315.07%
Socialist Alliance20,4231.20%
Independent18,4091.08%
1,708,7067
West Midlands (7 seats no change)
PartyVotes%MEPs elected
NPP584,98240.04%3
Labour389,89026.68%2
Conservative206,45914.13%1
Lib Dem154,00410.54%1
Green104,6187.16%
Socialist Alliance21,1861.45%
1,461,1397
Yorkshire & The Humber (7 seats +1)
PartyVotes%MEPs elected
NPP605,93943.62%4
Labour272,16119.59%1
Conservative196,30614.13%1
Lib Dem173,52212.49%1
Green77,8005.60%
Yorkshire52,9983.81%
Socialist Alliance10,5590.76%
1,389,2857
 
Breakdown of the UK Results of the EU Elections
Part Four

Scotland (7 seats +1)
PartyVotes%MEPs elected
SNP604,22936.36%3
Labour331,58419.95%1
Conservative254,62015.32%1
NPP202,59912.19%1
Lib Dem181,99010.95%1
Scottish Greens52,6863.17%
Green Unionist19,4461.17%
Socialist Alliance8,7520.53%
Independent6,1050.37%
1,662,0117
Wales (4 seats no change)
PartyVotes%MEPs elected
Labour308,56833.38%2
PC186,77620.21%1
Conservative150,57216.29%1
NPP127,83413.83%
Lib Dem98,71810.68%
Green38,1744.13%
Socialist Alliance13,6801.48%
924,3224
Northern Ireland (3 seats no change)
PartyVotes%MEPs elected
DUP125,60220.79%1
SF124,88720.67%1
Alliance Party110,20418.24%1
UUP104,76517.34%
SDLP80,34313.30%
Socialist Alliance41,7886.92%
Green (NI)13,8802.30%
Independent2,7790.46%
604,2483
 
Breakdown of the UK Results of the EU Elections
Part Five

National UK Breakdown (Seats)
EnglandMEPs elected
NPP29
Labour20
Con9
Lib Dem9
67
Scotland
SNP3
Labour2
Con1
NPP1
Lib Dem1
7
Wales
Labour2
PC1
Conservative1
4
Northern Ireland
DUP1
SF1
Alliance Party1
3
Total SeatsMEPs elected
NPP30
Labour24
Con11
Lib Dem10
SNP3
PC1
DUP1
SF1
Alliance Party1
82
*With thanks to @lord caedus who helped with the maths!!*
 
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Sunday June 16th 2024

Prime Minister in Promotion Deal Allegation


The Sunday Times has reported that Nigel Jay’s promotion this week was a result of a deal struck with Michael Duggan regarding the future leadership of the Conservative Party.

The Sunday Times quotes several unnamed sources close to both former Home Secretary Karne Purvis and former Chancellor Kevin Grimes. They claim that the rumours circulating in the party say that “Duggan was in a bind when he approached Jay (who he has never liked) to be Chancellor. He’d already been burnt by Greenwell and was running out of time and options.”

The allegations allege that the Prime Minister was concerned that Mr Jay, a former Home Secretary and Mayor of London might be about to challenge him for the leadership and so offered him the chance to lead the Treasury alongside a promise of throwing his support behind Jay when the Prime Minister eventually steps down.

“There was no discussion as to when Duggan might step down” the sources claim “But the indication was it would be within the next two or three years, and when it happened Duggan would support Jay for the leadership.”

Nigel Jay has long been considered a future Conservative leader and many believe that it was only his decision to run for the Mayoralty that prevented him from succeeding Richard Samuels as Prime Minister. While such a deal may have bought Michael Duggan some time, if these rumours are true it will be taken as yet more evidence that his leadership is far from secure.
 
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Forrester wins GA primary, King refuses to concede

Tuesday, June 18th, 2024

Senator Charlie Forrester (R-GA) has won his primary battle against far-right congresswoman Patty King, who has reportedly refused to call the junior senator to concede the race.

With 95% of results in, Forrester has reportedly won with 62% of the vote over King's 36%, with most of the latter's vote concentrated in areas in and around her northwestern Georgia district.

Forrester, the only incumbent senator of either party who faced a serious primary challenge this year, said he was "buoyed to receive a great vote of confidence from my party's voters" and asked King supporters to help him defeat former state senator and Democratic nominee Kelsey Gardner, who easily won the Democratic primary over three other candidates.

While Forrester enjoyed a large financial advantage over King, the controversial congresswoman's surprisingly strong performance has reportedly caused some Republicans to worry about Forrester's chances in November. Several Republican officials and aides, who spoke to NBS on condition of anonymity, described worries over political and demographic changes causing Georgia to lose its status as a red state, spurred in part by President Seaborn becoming the first Democrat to win Georgia in nearly a quarter-century in 2022.

Gardner, who hopes to be the first African-American to represent Georgia in the Senate, has worked to take advantage of the state's shifting demographics and the inroads the Democratic Party has made nationally in the suburbs as rural areas become increasingly Republican.

"The fact that an unstable woman like Patty King can get one-third of the vote in a Republican primary shows how much Senator Forrester has moved out of step with his party." Gardner said in a statement that called on voters to support her campaign.

The primaries in Georgia, as well as simultaneous ones in Oklahoma and Virginia, mark the halfway point in the primary election process, with 26 states having now finished the primary process ahead of November's elections. The final three states to hold primaries (Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island) will hold them on September 10th.
 
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Wednesday June 19th, 2024

King posts video claiming primary election was "stolen by Communists"


Congresswomen Patty King has posted a bizarre video message on her social media accounts claiming that the primary election in Georgia yesterday in which she was comprehensively beaten by incumbent Republican Senator Charlie Forrester, was "stolen by Communists".

The eight minute video has King claiming that she has "100% proof that the election was stolen" adding "the Communists have stolen this primary from you, it has been funded by George Soros" she added that she would "not concede, or give in and I call on all Americans if you are fed up with this level of corruption you must fight it" although there was no mention that she would attempt to challenge the result in the state courts.

NBS sources understand that the States Republican Governor Jeremy Jefferson called the King campaign last night as it soon as it became clear that King had suffered a heavy defeat to try and convince her to concede, but she refused to take his call.

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Congresswomen Patty King in her bizarre video message today

(photo by Sidney Powell)
 
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Doesn't Georgia have a jungle primary system with runoffs in it, or is it just a normal election ITTL?
No, IOTL Georgia uses a two-round system for its elections.

Every state ITTL uses the same FPTP system for their non-presidential primaries and elections. There are no jungle primaries or nonpartisan blanket primaries (like the kind used IOTL California and Washington) where candidates from different parties run against each other in the primary in use anywhere ITTL's US, and no statewide use of instant runoff voting (like IOTL Alaska & Maine) or a two-round system (OTL Georgia).
 
No, IOTL Georgia uses a two-round system for its elections.

Every state ITTL uses the same FPTP system for their non-presidential primaries and elections. There are no jungle primaries or nonpartisan blanket primaries (like the kind used IOTL California and Washington) where candidates from different parties run against each other in the primary in use anywhere ITTL's US, and no statewide use of instant runoff voting (like IOTL Alaska & Maine) or a two-round system (OTL Georgia).
Oh OK. Now I get it!
 
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