I think the final debate next Wednesday in St. Louis, will allow the polling to reflect how the election will actually turn out!
2018 Presidential Election
- Thread starter Marky Bunny
- Start date
Duke & Seaborn to meet at showdown in final debate
Wednesday, October 19th 2022
For the first and only time in this presidential election cycle, the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates will face off by themselves in the final presidential debate next Wednesday. The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) announced that they had extended invitations to the third and final debate to President Sam Seaborn (D) and former senator Alan Duke (R), but not businessman Andrew Long (I) who had participated in both of the previous two presidential debates.
The reason for Long's exclusion at this debate were that his poll numbers had slipped below the nationwide polling threshold of 15 percent, according to CPD executive director Jan White. Previously, Long had polled high enough that he became the first non-major party candidate invited to a CPD-hosted debate, and his running mate, former governor Emily Rudden, had appeared in the vice presidential debate alongside both major party nominees.
The Long campaign said that it was "unthinkable" for the CPD to fail to invite Long after he appeared in two presidential debates, and campaign lawyers have sought an emergency injunction to force the commission to include Long.
ACN anchor Elliot Hirsch will serve as moderator for the third presidential debate, hosted by Washington University in St. Louis. The debate will be split between foreign and domestic policy in the final opportunity voters will have to see the candidates debate before the election.
Saturday, October 22nd 2022
Shi Xinling named to be named new Chinese leader after Qian escorted from stage
Beijing— President Qian Min was escorted from the stage at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) just after a speech endorsing the nomination of Shi Xinling to be the party's next General Secretary, an unusually dramatic event at the normally tightly-scripted party congress.
Qian, who had been almost publicly angling for another term as head of the party and de facto leader of the People's Republic of China (PRC) only days before the party congress began last Sunday, was reportedly "overcome by emotion and gratitude to his anointed successor" according to a statement put out by state media just before ACN went to press.
Shi, who has served as head of the Secretariat in charge of day-to-day party matters since 2017, will almost certainly be elected as the new General Secretary of the CCP on Sunday, beginning a new era of leadership for the party that will culminate in him assuming the presidency at the next meeting of the National People's Congress in March 2023.
In a brief address, Shi thanked Qian for his "tireless leadership" and pledged to continue the "unending work of perfecting socialism with Chinese characteristics," the ideological program of the CCP and People's Republic of China (PRC) that claims to be an adaptation of Marxist-Leninism to Chinese circumstances and that changes as new leaders are selected to meet the needs of different time periods.
Unlike Qian, who has frequently made the news with his outbursts of bizarre and unusual comments, most infamously his feud with animal rights activists, Shi was reportedly selected by party leaders for his reserve and "deliberate model of decision-making" one source within the CCP told the AP. The Henan native has reportedly made few enemies in the party, and unlike Qian, will be above the party's unofficial retirement age of 68 in ten years' time, a sign that the party leadership does not want the potential for a third straight leader who has attempted to reestablish the type of one-man rule that PRC founder Mao Zedong enjoyed.
Party leaders had reportedly grown increasingly disillusioned with Qian, who had come to power after a coalition of party elites toppled his predecessor Wei Lian, after Wei had begun accumulating even more power than normal under China's post-Mao political system. Under Qian, the government attracted widespread international criticism for its human rights abuses of the Muslim Uyghur population in Xinjiang, and entered into the conflict in Qumar as part of the "ABC" forces that would occupy the country after the collapse of its central government in 2016. China's three-year occupation of part of Qumar, reportedly thanks to Qian's personal initiative, has come to be seen within the top levels of party leadership as a mistake, adding billions to the country's national debt just before the country's period of long, sustained economic growth appears to be slowing. Additionally, protests from guma'er, veterans of the war in Qumar, over inadequate post-military support and services, have repeatedly been focal points for local discontentment about the government.
Qian will remain on the party's 200-member Central Committee, but China watchers say it is unlikely he will remain on the Standing Committee of the Politburo, the handful of members (currently seven) who make up the top leadership of the CCP. While he will remain China's official head of state until March, the CCP's control over the organs of the state will leave him with little effective power for the remainder of his term.
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Duke says Long campaign "bankrolled by the DNC and George Soros"
Saturday, October 22nd, 2022
Republican presidential nominee Alan Duke attacked independent conservative candidate Andrew Long at a Miami rally today, saying that the billionaire's campaign was "bankrolled by the DNC [Democratic National Committee] and George Soros."
At the rally, Duke attacked the Seaborn administration's thaw of relations with Cuba and economic policies, which he described as "tax and spend economics." He also reserved choice words for Long, whose campaign has attracted many Republican and Republican-leaning voters who dislike Duke and his brand of aggressive social and cultural conservatism.
"Andrew Long may say that he's self-funded," Duke told the audience. "But we all know where the money's coming from...We all know that he's bankrolled by the DNC and George Soros, to do their dirty work and split the party."
"They don't want a real Republican, a real conservative, who stands for American first instead of last, and who believes in God and the traditional family, to get in the White House, so they run a two-time loser to split the vote and give their puppet in the White House four more disastrous years."
Long's campaign immediately issued a statement blasting Duke's assertions as "unfounded" and "the same type of deranged conspiratorial gibberish that we've heard all too often from Alan Duke."
Financial disclosures submitted by the Long campaign to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) do not reveal any funding to the Long campaign by any groups affiliated with either the national Democratic Party or any state or local affiliates, nor any donations made in the name of any of Soros' financial or charitable organizations. A Duke campaign spokeswoman said that the senator "had it on good authority" that Soros and "Democrat organizations" had helped fund the Long campaign through non-profit advocacy groups that are not required to reveal their donors, but did not respond further when asked for further clarification.
Several critics on the right and center also attacked the invocation of anti-Semitic tropes by asserting that Soros (an ethnically Jewish businessman and philanthropist who survived the Nazi occupation of Hungary as a young boy) was working as a shadowy puppet-master via financial manipulation. Both the Anti-Defamation League and Simon Wiesenthal Center have called on Duke to apologize for his comments.
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Layton tried to make Camp Lejeune bill "toothless", says report
Saturday, October 22nd, 2022
The race for North Carolina's Senate seat was upended over the weekend after a report by The Charlotte Observer that Senator Barbara Layton (R) attempted to strip out language from the Camp Lejeune Act, which allows those affected by the contaminated tap water at the Jacksonville, North Carolina military base to seek compensation, that would have made it "toothless" in the eyes of The Observer.
The Observer reports that Layton had privately lobbied Senate Majority Whip Max Lobell III (R-GA) to strip out a provision in the act, which President Seaborn signed into law in August, that would override North Carolina state law that requires that cancer caused by a toxic action to be diagnosed within ten years of the action in order for those affected to seek legal damages. Layton reportedly claimed opposition on the basis of federalism, saying that the "remedy should be fixed at the state level" according to two sources who witnessed attempts by Layton to persuade Lobell to remove the language.
Between 1953 and 1987, the tap water Marines and their family members at Camp Lejeune bathed in and ingested tap water that had concentrations of harmful chemicals including perchloroethylene, trichloroethylene, and benzene ranging from 200 to over 300 times the levels considered safe by state and federal health authorities. Many Marines or their families who were stationed at Camp Lejeune during that period subsequently developed cancer or other ailments they believe was a result of their exposure or ingestion of the contaminated water. Congress had previously passed legislation, signed by President Walken, to allow the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to treat Camp Lejeune veterans and their families for 15 different conditions the VA identified as likely being caused by the base's contaminated water supply.
But the high rate of rejection for care by the VA for those who were stationed or lived at Camp Lejeune during the period of contamination (one report estimated that only 20% of applications for VA care for ailments linked to Camp Lejeune's water were approved prior to this year) and the impediments of state law and federal agencies' prolonged attempt to avoid legal responsibility for the contamination led to a continued effort by Camp Lejeune victims and their families that culminated in the Camp Lejeune Act. The Act most notably prevents the federal government from claiming immunity in lawsuits over the base's contaminated water supply, and allows veterans, their family and anyone who was exposed to the water at Camp Lejeune (even in utero) for a period of at least 30 days between 1953 and 1987 to seek damages from the federal government.
The legislation also was required to override the state law in North Carolina, which had also served as a major legal obstacle to Camp Lejeune veterans and their families. Both Layton and North Carolina's other senator, Kenny Sattler (R), voted against the act, although there have been no reports that Sattler also attempted to strip the provision overriding North Carolina state law out of the act like Layton is alleged to.
Attorney General Hank King (D), Layton's opponent in her bid for re-election, called the report of Layton's attempted neutering of the act "unconscionable" and "ideologically blinkered." The Layton campaign denied the report's accuracy and said that The Observer was engaging in "biased coverage based on faulty information."
Duke calling Andrew Long a loser is ironic. I seem to recall Duke losing his Senate reelection in 2014 by a pretty substantial margin in one of the reddest states in the country.
I don't know that Soros exist in this TL,a expy maybe but not him,I thinked that the only real persons left in this TL are the British Royal Family,but interesting.
So who's Alan Duke's "Good Authority"? Anyone can I have it "On Good Authority" that so and so did this or said that! Someone should call Alan Duke out and challenge him on that assertion, and if he claims that I am unable disclose the identity of "this individual", then it would be basically a case of him "blowing smoke"
Saturday, October 22nd 2022
Shi Xinling named to be named new Chinese leader after Qian escorted from stage
Beijing— President Qian Min was escorted from the stage at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) just after a speech endorsing the nomination of Shi Xinling to be the party's next General Secretary, an unusually dramatic event at the normally tightly-scripted party congress.
Qian, who had been almost publicly angling for another term as head of the party and de facto leader of the People's Republic of China (PRC) only days before the party congress began last Sunday, was reportedly "overcome by emotion and gratitude to his anointed successor" according to a statement put out by state media just before ACN went to press.
Shi, who has served as head of the Secretariat in charge of day-to-day party matters since 2017, will almost certainly be elected as the new General Secretary of the CCP on Sunday, beginning a new era of leadership for the party that will culminate in him assuming the presidency at the next meeting of the National People's Congress in March 2023.
In a brief address, Shi thanked Qian for his "tireless leadership" and pledged to continue the "unending work of perfecting socialism with Chinese characteristics," the ideological program of the CCP and People's Republic of China (PRC) that claims to be an adaptation of Marxist-Leninism to Chinese circumstances and that changes as new leaders are selected to meet the needs of different time periods.
Unlike Qian, who has frequently made the news with his outbursts of bizarre and unusual comments, most infamously his feud with animal rights activists, Shi was reportedly selected by party leaders for his reserve and "deliberate model of decision-making" one source within the CCP told the AP. The Henan native has reportedly made few enemies in the party, and unlike Qian, will be above the party's unofficial retirement age of 68 in ten years' time, a sign that the party leadership does not want the potential for a third straight leader who has attempted to reestablish the type of one-man rule that PRC founder Mao Zedong enjoyed.
Party leaders had reportedly grown increasingly disillusioned with Qian, who had come to power after a coalition of party elites toppled his predecessor Wei Lian, after Wei had begun accumulating even more power than normal under China's post-Mao political system. Under Qian, the government attracted widespread international criticism for its human rights abuses of the Muslim Uyghur population in Xinjiang, and entered into the conflict in Qumar as part of the "ABC" forces that would occupy the country after the collapse of its central government in 2016. China's three-year occupation of part of Qumar, reportedly thanks to Qian's personal initiative, has come to be seen within the top levels of party leadership as a mistake, adding billions to the country's national debt just before the country's period of long, sustained economic growth appears to be slowing. Additionally, protests from guma'er, veterans of the war in Qumar, over inadequate post-military support and services, have repeatedly been focal points for local discontentment about the government.
Qian will remain on the party's 200-member Central Committee, but China watchers say it is unlikely he will remain on the Standing Committee of the Politburo, the handful of members (currently seven) who make up the top leadership of the CCP. While he will remain China's official head of state until March, the CCP's control over the organs of the state will leave him with little effective power for the remainder of his term.
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Duke says Long campaign "bankrolled by the DNC and George Soros"
Saturday, October 22nd, 2022
Republican presidential nominee Alan Duke attacked independent conservative candidate Andrew Long at a Miami rally today, saying that the billionaire's campaign was "bankrolled by the DNC [Democratic National Committee] and George Soros."
At the rally, Duke attacked the Seaborn administration's thaw of relations with Cuba and economic policies, which he described as "tax and spend economics." He also reserved choice words for Long, whose campaign has attracted many Republican and Republican-leaning voters who dislike Duke and his brand of aggressive social and cultural conservatism.
"Andrew Long may say that he's self-funded," Duke told the audience. "But we all know where the money's coming from...We all know that he's bankrolled by the DNC and George Soros, to do their dirty work and split the party."
"They don't want a real Republican, a real conservative, who stands for American first instead of last, and who believes in God and the traditional family, to get in the White House, so they run a two-time loser to split the vote and give their puppet in the White House four more disastrous years."
Long's campaign immediately issued a statement blasting Duke's assertions as "unfounded" and "the same type of deranged conspiratorial gibberish that we've heard all too often from Alan Duke."
Financial disclosures submitted by the Long campaign to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) do not reveal any funding to the Long campaign by any groups affiliated with either the national Democratic Party or any state or local affiliates, nor any donations made in the name of any of Soros' financial or charitable organizations. A Duke campaign spokeswoman said that the senator "had it on good authority" that Soros and "Democrat organizations" had helped fund the Long campaign through non-profit advocacy groups that are not required to reveal their donors, but did not respond further when asked for further clarification.
Several critics on the right and center also attacked the invocation of anti-Semitic tropes by asserting that Soros (an ethnically Jewish businessman and philanthropist who survived the Nazi occupation of Hungary as a young boy) was working as a shadowy puppet-master via financial manipulation. Both the Anti-Defamation League and Simon Wiesenthal Center have called on Duke to apologize for his comments.
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Layton tried to make Camp Lejeune bill "toothless", says report
Saturday, October 22nd, 2022
The race for North Carolina's Senate seat was upended over the weekend after a report by The Charlotte Observer that Senator Barbara Layton (R) attempted to strip out language from the Camp Lejeune Act, which allows those affected by the contaminated tap water at the Jacksonville, North Carolina military base to seek compensation, that would have made it "toothless" in the eyes of The Observer.
The Observer reports that Layton had privately lobbied Senate Majority Whip Max Lobell III (R-GA) to strip out a provision in the act, which President Seaborn signed into law in August, that would override North Carolina state law that requires that cancer caused by a toxic action to be diagnosed within ten years of the action in order for those affected to seek legal damages. Layton reportedly claimed opposition on the basis of federalism, saying that the "remedy should be fixed at the state level" according to two sources who witnessed attempts by Layton to persuade Lobell to remove the language.
Between 1953 and 1987, the tap water Marines and their family members at Camp Lejeune bathed in and ingested tap water that had concentrations of harmful chemicals including perchloroethylene, trichloroethylene, and benzene ranging from 200 to over 300 times the levels considered safe by state and federal health authorities. Many Marines or their families who were stationed at Camp Lejeune during that period subsequently developed cancer or other ailments they believe was a result of their exposure or ingestion of the contaminated water. Congress had previously passed legislation, signed by President Walken, to allow the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to treat Camp Lejeune veterans and their families for 15 different conditions the VA identified as likely being caused by the base's contaminated water supply.
But the high rate of rejection for care by the VA for those who were stationed or lived at Camp Lejeune during the period of contamination (one report estimated that only 20% of applications for VA care for ailments linked to Camp Lejeune's water were approved prior to this year) and the impediments of state law and federal agencies' prolonged attempt to avoid legal responsibility for the contamination led to a continued effort by Camp Lejeune victims and their families that culminated in the Camp Lejeune Act. The Act most notably prevents the federal government from claiming immunity in lawsuits over the base's contaminated water supply, and allows veterans, their family and anyone who was exposed to the water at Camp Lejeune (even in utero) for a period of at least 30 days between 1953 and 1987 to seek damages from the federal government.
The legislation also was required to override the state law in North Carolina, which had also served as a major legal obstacle to Camp Lejeune veterans and their families. Both Layton and North Carolina's other senator, Kenny Sattler (R), voted against the act, although there have been no reports that Sattler also attempted to strip the provision overriding North Carolina state law out of the act like Layton is alleged to.
Attorney General Hank King (D), Layton's opponent in her bid for re-election, called the report of Layton's attempted neutering of the act "unconscionable" and "ideologically blinkered." The Layton campaign denied the report's accuracy and said that The Observer was engaging in "biased coverage based on faulty information."
There are other RL people scattered around, but it's pretty much only people on the non-politics/entertainment side that you'll see appear as themselves.
I figured that since Soros is so old (he's 92) and such a specific bogeyman for the conspiratorial American right (again, the guy they imply is some sort of shady puppet master responsible for bankrolling most left-wing causes across the world also happens to be an ethnically Jewish financier who is now among the most famous living Holocaust survivors) that it's not really worth it to make up a new character that's clearly just him.
Environmentalist expected to become Brazil's next President in 2023 Elections
Sunday,October 23nd,2022
Brasília, Brazil - Brazil is currently experiencing an interesting political situation to say the least, since the death of then President Marco da Luca in a helicopter crash in 2015, his party, the PT (Workers Party) has been losing its relevance on the national scene as the largest opposition party, mainly due to the lack of strong leadership in the party since da Luca's death, at the same time the government of President Caxias of the MDB (former PMDB, the party changed its name) has been facing a wave of of unpopularity due to trying to pass reforms in the areas of education and health that according to some analysts would harm the poorest population, fortunately for some and unfortunately for others the opposition managed to stop these reforms in the Federal Congress.
President Caxias' popularity index is no more than 21% and he has already confirmed that he will not try to run for a new term due to age (Caxias is already 81 years old) and his party the MDB is desperate to find a successor for the June elections of 2023, meanwhile André Augusto Matarazzo's REDE party is experiencing a meteoric rise, the 2021 municipal elections saw the party take over the mayor of many important cities in the country such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte and several other capitals while the MDB did not conquer or lose several capitals and the PT only conquered the city hall of Recife, losing several others in the Northeast (a region where the late Luca was well voted). Matarazzo, as a congressman, found himself in the position of leader of the opposition to the Government Caxias due to the fragility in which the PT finds itself, and polls of voting intention show since the beginning of the year Matarazzo winning the future presidential election against any opponent, and although REDE is a left-wing party, the party is better known as environmentalist and that is why Brazil is expected to experience an "environmental wave" in the upcoming elections.
André Augusto Matarazzo,the probable future President of Brazil
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Because this is pretty obviously trying to set up the results of Brazil's next election without any discussion from any of the writing staff, I'd ask readers to disregard this post.
@The Champion - Please see the thread-mark on contributing if you have any suggestions or thoughts about next year's Brazilian election storyline.
Well ok but you should warn others about this before and clearly don't think, as far as I can remember it didn't have this here before since when I killed Da Luca and cast the other Brazilian characters with actors and etc (yes it was me, just go check the old posts from the previous thread and these to confirm) no one said anything and it was accepted I thought it was ok since Brazil is mostly ignored here (it's not a criticism, it's a truth since the main focus here is the USA and it's ok I understand why because of the show and stuff) and about trying to define the elections before, well..... I don't see what the big problem would be since Brazil is not one of the main focuses here and considering that Seaborn has at least an 80% chance of being re-elected against what... 20% Duke, it's kind of weird to complain about that but ok, sorry for trying to create a better Brazil than OTL, I thought the intention with this TL was to leave all countries in better situations than OTL, but ok sorry.
Edit: And I'm not mad about it, just to be clear, I just thought it was weird.
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As you can tell from the date of that post, this is a change that took place after your contributions in the old thread.
I'm sorry that you didn't see the threadmark, but we did put it there for a reason.
The problem isn't that you tried to make Brazil better (also the overall intention of this TL is just to continue the story of The West Wing, not to "leave all countries in better situations than OTL") or that you tried to change the focus to Brazil instead of the US. It's that this wasn't cleared with us first.
We've changed things because we have and had storylines planned months in advance and don't want people posting things that inadvertently interferes with that, or that doesn't fit with the story we're telling (like if someone writes an article saying Pizzagate is real ITTL or that Jed Bartlet actually faked his death and is living in hiding on his brother's farm in New Hampshire).
Thus, everything needs to be approved by the writing team (myself, MD17 and Mark as head writer) before it makes its way onto the thread and is treated as part of the story.
Seaborn and Duke meet in final clash before election
Wednesday, October 26th 2022
The final presidential debate of the 2022 election cycle finished just over an hour ago, with Sam Seaborn (D) and Alan Duke (R) squaring off less than two weeks before Election Day.
Hosted by Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, the two leading candidates for president showed their separate visions for what they view as the nation's biggest challenges and how they would tackle those challenges if elected—in between attacks on the other candidates' proposals, statements or record.
Duke, trailing the president by double-digit margins, went after Seaborn aggressively, laying the economic "roller coaster ride" of the last four years at Seaborn's feet and chastising the president for a foreign policy of "trying to tie America down in meaningless conflicts "while "rolling over for every tinpot dictator who says the right Marxist mumbo-jumbo or who calls God 'Allah'."
The Republican nominee also laid out his plans that, he says, will "put the American people in firmer control of their own lives and...their government" by giving control over federal entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare to the individual states, while cutting federal income tax rates. He also articulated a more isolationist foreign policy, including withdrawing the United States from NATO and other international agreements and obligations, including withdrawing all remaining American combat troops from Qumar by 2024.
Seaborn focused primarily on defending his administration's record, claiming his administration's response "helping Main Street and Wall Street alike" helped largely reverse the economic dip the country experienced from 2020 to 2021. He reiterated his previous commitments to reforming the nation's healthcare and gun control laws, and increasing federal aid meant to help state and local governments deal with education, housing and transportation needs. Seaborn reiterated support for the United States' military and diplomatic alliances, and called Duke's proposals "irresponsible" and said that they would "damage American prestige abroad."
"Our involvement with the type of organizations Senator Duke dislikes [such as NATO] have made those organizations stabilizing forces in many regions around the world. Our nation's strength helps deter another Russian 'intervention' in the Baltics, China from ordering a military attack on Taiwan, and the people of Qumar from again falling into the hands of the Bahji. I don't see how removing [the United States] from those regions would do anything more than embolden forces opposed to the democratic values we all share."
The president also took Duke to task for his engagement in "dangerous, conspiratorial thinking", including the baseless claim Duke articulated Saturday that independent conservative candidate Andrew Long (who was not invited to the evening's debate) was bankrolled by the Democratic National Committee and financier George Soros.
"As a private citizen, you can engage in this type of conspiracy theory-spouting nonsense all day long," Seaborn scolded Duke. "As long as you stay within the limits of the law, you can continue to say the kind of outrageous, irresponsible things you've made a hallmark of your campaign. I don't know if you even believe some of the things you've said.
But as President of the United States, you have to live in the world of facts. Not just for your [own] sake, but for the sake of the American people and the men and women you might order into danger and death on their behalf."
Most of NBS' post-debate panel agreed that Seaborn had the better performance, judging this to be Duke's worst performance of the three debates.
"The president really put the shellacking he received [in the first debate] to use," said NBS contributor Bruno Gianelli, "Just one-on-one, it was never going to be pretty for Alan Duke. He should be thankful that the numbers the [Seaborn] campaign have must show that appearing 'presidential' polls better than [Seaborn] going after him."
Gianelli and the other NBS contributors also discussed the potential impact of Andrew Long's absence after appearing in the previous two debates, and whether Duke's debate strategy was the best course of action given his place in the polls and low favorability ratings among swing and undecided voters.
Alright! Hopefully there's no "Comey-esque" surprises that come Sam's way for the next 13 days (and hopefully some for the Duke of Hazzard).
Massive full state poll with electoral college map to be released within the next 24-36 hours.
Seaborn regains projected Electoral College victory
Friday, October 28th 2022
President Sam Seaborn (D) is projected to safely hold enough states to win an Electoral College majority in NBS' final state-by-state poll before Election Day. The poll, conducted by NBS/YouGov in the day after the third presidential debate, has Seaborn recovering his lead in several key battleground states, particularly in the Midwest and Rust Belt, giving him a projected total of at least 276 electoral votes, two more than he won four years ago. Additionally, Seaborn is also leading in several battleground states including Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Texas.
Among likely voters, Seaborn is leading former senator Alan Duke (R) by a large 14 point margin, with 47 percent of voters saying they have already or plan to vote for Seaborn, compared to 33 percent for Duke. Independent candidate Andrew Long, who was not invited to the third presidential debate after participating in the previous two, is a distant third at 11 percent of the vote, with activist Susan Buckner of the Green Party remaining steady at four percent.
With his large lead in the polls and aided by a substantial number of Republican-leaning voters expressing their support for Long instead of the GOP nominee, Seaborn is the preferred candidate of voters in almost every demographic category.
Despite the polls and projections saying the result will be a comfortable Seaborn victory, early voting numbers appear to be corroborating the poll's findings that shows an increase in the percentage of likely voters rating their feeling that they will vote as "high" or "very high" (note that this question excludes voters who have already voted) compared to 2018. When asked, roughly one-half (47 percent) credited the presence of Andrew Long on the ballot for an increase in their willingness or excitement to vote, while a smaller amount (27 percent) said the increase was due to wanting to greater dislike of one of the major-party nominees compared to four years ago (23 percent mentioned Duke compared to four percent who named Seaborn).
Presidential Election Polling
Seaborn (D): 47% (±0)
Duke (R): 33% (+2)
Long (I): 11% (-1)
Buckner (G): 4% (±0)
Undecided: 5% (-1)
States to Watch
ArizonaSeaborn (D): 47% (±0)
Duke (R): 33% (+2)
Long (I): 11% (-1)
Buckner (G): 4% (±0)
Undecided: 5% (-1)
States to Watch
Seaborn (D): 41% (+6)
Duke (R): 38% (-2)
Long (I): 11% (-3)
Buckner (G): 5% (+1)
Undecided: 5% (-2)
Florida
Seaborn (D): 45% (+6)
Duke (R): 38% (-2)
Long (I): 9% (-3)
Buckner (G): 3% (+1)
Undecided: 5% (-2)
Ohio
Seaborn (D): 42% (+7)
Duke (R): 37% (-3)
Long (I): 12% (-3)
Buckner (G): 4% (+1)
Undecided: 5% (-2)
Pennsylvania
Seaborn (D): 48% (+6)
Duke (R): 34% (-2)
Long (I): 10% (-3)
Buckner (G): 3% (+1)
Undecided: 5% (-2)
Texas
Seaborn (D): 37% (+9)
Duke (R): 33% (-2)
Long (I): 22% (-6)
Buckner (G): 3% (+1)
Undecided: 5% (-2)
Wisconsin
Seaborn (D): 44% (+5)
Duke (R): 31% (-2)
Long (I): 12% (-3)
Buckner (G): 8% (+2)
Undecided: 5% (-2)
Projected Election Map
Seaborn (D): 276 (+79) electoral votes
Duke (R): 81 (-33) electoral votes
Long (I): 0 (±0) electoral votes
Toss-up: 181 (-46) electoral votes
Changes
Colorado (10 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
Indiana (11 EV): Duke to Toss-Up
Louisiana (8 EV): Duke to Toss-Up
Michigan (15 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
Minnesota (10 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
Missouri (10 EV): Duke to Toss-Up
Montana (4 EV): Duke to Toss-Up
Nevada (6 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
New Hampshire (4 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
New Mexico (5 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
Pennsylvania (19 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
Wisconsin (10 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
Seaborn (D): 276 (+79) electoral votes
Duke (R): 81 (-33) electoral votes
Long (I): 0 (±0) electoral votes
Toss-up: 181 (-46) electoral votes
Changes
Colorado (10 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
Indiana (11 EV): Duke to Toss-Up
Louisiana (8 EV): Duke to Toss-Up
Michigan (15 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
Minnesota (10 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
Missouri (10 EV): Duke to Toss-Up
Montana (4 EV): Duke to Toss-Up
Nevada (6 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
New Hampshire (4 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
New Mexico (5 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
Pennsylvania (19 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
Wisconsin (10 EV): Toss-Up to Seaborn
Both Carolinas as well as Georgia and Louisiana are tossups. Bobby Tyler now looks like a good pick. He will help in those states by really bringing out the African American vote. That ceiling has never been broken ITTL.
Please God have their be no October Surprises for Sam!
Also, is it safe to say Duke's campaign isn't "Unbreakable"? That it's facing "Armageddon"? That his campaign is going to "Die Hard"? I'm trying to think of a few more.
Also, is it safe to say Duke's campaign isn't "Unbreakable"? That it's facing "Armageddon"? That his campaign is going to "Die Hard"? I'm trying to think of a few more.
I’m less concerned about October surprises at this point… I nervously and with some trepidation await some sort of ‘art imitating life’ moment inspired by the last IRL transition period….