2018 Presidential Election

If the Long/Redden ticket does reasonably well in November, I guess Rudden could be a contender in 2026.
Could be interesting to see what long-term effects a strong third-party ticket has, and what implications it leaves for the two houses of congress and future elections. Will things go ‘back to normal’ in 2026 or will credible third parties be here to stay?

That said, much as I would prefer one of the other two candidates to succeed I can’t shake off the thought that Duke is going to do better than expected. Certainly IRL precedent for polling numbers to be more than a little off.

I don’t think he is going to win and imagine we have got some more self sabotage coming from him in terms of statements, but I wonder if this will have as large an impact as many people would like.
 
Could be interesting to see what long-term effects a strong third-party ticket has, and what implications it leaves for the two houses of congress and future elections. Will things go ‘back to normal’ in 2026 or will credible third parties be here to stay?

That said, much as I would prefer one of the other two candidates to succeed I can’t shake off the thought that Duke is going to do better than expected. Certainly IRL precedent for polling numbers to be more than a little off.

I don’t think he is going to win and imagine we have got some more self sabotage coming from him in terms of statements, but I wonder if this will have as large an impact as many people would like.
I hope that unlike Trump IOTL, Duke as the Republican nominee is a one-off. I hope he gets annihilated in November, which will make it easier for the Republican party to pick up the pieces and move forward, like what happened after Goldwater in 1964. A lot of moderate Republicans took a walk on Goldwater too. The Republicans who have not endorsed Duke or at least have been lukewarm about him or been critical of him like Irving and Butler and Walter Collins and Owen Wells and Curtis Ryan and Emily Rudden are the ones the party can look to in 2026.
 
I hope that unlike Trump IOTL, Duke as the Republican nominee is a one-off. I hope he gets annihilated in November, which will make it easier for the Republican party to pick up the pieces and move forward, like what happened after Goldwater in 1964. A lot of moderate Republicans took a walk on Goldwater too. The Republicans who have not endorsed Duke or at least have been lukewarm about him or been critical of him like Irving and Butler and Walter Collins and Owen Wells and Curtis Ryan and Emily Rudden are the ones the party can look to in 2026.
I definitely share your hope on both these things, and agree there is some good historical precedent for a landslide. I think at this point I’m just curious to see if it follows this path or we see something based in more contemporary history (or something completely new!)
 
I definitely share your hope on both these things, and agree there is some good historical precedent for a landslide. I think at this point I’m just curious to see if it follows this path or we see something based in more contemporary history (or something completely new!)
 
Whatever happens, I imagine that since Long is in the picture, his presence puts Texas out of Duke's reach and there is a possibility that the Lone Star State will flip into the Democratic column! With Rudden on the ticket, could Indiana too end up in Seaborn's column? One thing for sure, is that Duke's toast and there's no conceivable way he pulls off a Trump-like surprise victory as in OTL. However if Long starts to poll higher than 15% he's in the debate's and whatever the Long factor plays on Seaborn's fortune's, Duke's situation becomes even more hopeless. He loses Independents bigly, and only the hard core base Republican's (knuckle draggers, nut jobs, nationalists, racists and homophobes) will flock to his banner.
 
Whatever happens, I imagine that since Long is in the picture, his presence puts Texas out of Duke's reach and there is a possibility that the Lone Star State will flip into the Democratic column! With Rudden on the ticket, could Indiana too end up in Seaborn's column? One thing for sure, is that Duke's toast and there's no conceivable way he pulls off a Trump-like surprise victory as in OTL. However if Long starts to poll higher than 15% he's in the debate's and whatever the Long factor plays on Seaborn's fortune's, Duke's situation becomes even more hopeless. He loses Independents bigly, and only the hard core base Republican's (knuckle draggers, nut jobs, nationalists, racists and homophobes) will flock to his banner.
Nothing is for sure.
 
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Monday August 1st, 2022

Duke attacks Long and Rudden "as Democratic stooges"

Republican presidential nominee Alan Duke launched into a bitter attack on Republican Texas businessman Andrew Long's independent run for the White House following his widely regarded successful launch rally in Houston, Texas, on Saturday night. He was speaking to reporters during a campaign stop in Charlotte, North Carolina.

"Those that support Long, are nothing but stooges for the Democrats. They are clearly being funded by the Democrats to split my vote. Long isn't going to be the next President, I even agree with Seaborn on that one, it's me or him, not Long or Buckner, a vote for Long just helps gives us another four years of President Seaborn", Duke also attacked former Indiana Governor Emily Rudden for becoming Long's running-mate "she got the job by default in 2010, and had a very weak opponent in 2014, and when given the chance to try and win a Senate seat, she bottled it" referring to Rudden's decision not challenge Rudi Robinson for the Senate.

Asked by reporters with 99 days left until election day, if he could win, he replied "Of course, I am looking forward to the debates, and I believe when the American people hear the truth about my plans, they will vote for me, at the moment many are hearing the lies of a fake media, about what I plan to do when I get into the Oval office on January 20th next year".
 
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Seaborn still needs to campaign like he is 10 points behind. He can't take his foot off the accelerator.

My point precisely – there is no such thing as a guarantee of victory but regardless of how Duke comes across I don’t think there is any room for complacency. He needs to campaign like he is 10 points behind and his campaign team need to have the attitude of Toby in the Election Day episodes from season four.
 
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Monday August 1st, 2022

Government announces cruise liner to take 20,000 Cypriot refugees from the SVBA to Greece

Defence Secretary Matthew Stone announced this morning that the Government has sent the Cruise Ship the SS Britannic to ship refugees from the UK sovereign base areas to the Greek mainland.

"Working with the cruise line, Britannic, the SS Britannic will be taking around 20,000 refugees to the Greek mainland, starting later today". The Britannic is apart of the UK reserve fleet which can be used in the event of a war or a national emergency, such as the use of the SS Canberra forty years ago during the Falkland conflict.
 
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Long leads in Texas as Duke falls to 25% nationwide in first post-rally poll

Monday, August 1, 2022

Independent candidate Andrew Long has leapt to a lead in his home state of Texas as the first polls immediately taken after his primetime rally show him coming close to tying Republican nominee Alan Duke.

NBS/YouGov polling shows Long holding a comfortable lead in Texas, while Duke has reached the lowest share by a major-party nominee in nearly three decades with only 25% of likely voters saying they plan on voting for him for president. Long's selection of former Indiana governor Emily Rudden, and endorsements from several other prominent current and former Republican politicians have given him a substantial "convention bounce", with a good portion of the votes coming from swing voters.

President Sam Seaborn (D) still holds a decisive 17 percentage-point lead over Duke, and thanks to Long's surge, is projected to win the electoral college comfortably thanks to three large southern states (Florida, Georgia and North Carolina) being projected for him since the last poll while only losing one small state (Maine) thanks to Long's surge. The scale of the split among Republican and Republican-leaning voters is evidenced by the projected electoral map, with Duke losing all but three electoral votes (from the nation's least-populous state of Wyoming) from the previous projection and falling to third behind Seaborn and Long (who is currently projected to win Texas' 40 electoral votes). Should Long hold his lead in the Lone Star State until Election Day, he will be the first third-party presidential candidate to win a state since George Wallace in 1968.

A new feature of NBS' coverage within 100 days of the election is that we will be looking closer at six states that will most likely determine who will be the next president: Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. These six are our "states to watch", and will be periodically updated alongside our projected electoral map.

Presidential Election Polling
Seaborn (D): 42% (-6)
Duke (R): 25% (-3)
Long (I): 20% (+8)
Buckner: 4% (+1)
Undecided: 9% (±0)

States to Watch
Arizona
Seaborn (D): 36%
Duke (R): 29%
Long (I): 20%
Buckner (G): 5%
Undecided: 10%


Florida
Seaborn (D): 43%
Duke (R): 28%
Long (I): 17%
Buckner (G): 3%
Undecided: 9%


Ohio
Seaborn (D): 37%
Duke (R): 29%
Long (I): 21%
Buckner (G): 4%
Undecided: 9%


Pennsylvania
Seaborn (D): 44%
Duke (R): 26%
Long (I): 18%
Buckner (G): 3%
Undecided: 9%


Texas
Long (I): 40%
Duke (R): 25%
Seaborn (D): 23%
Buckner (G): 3%
Undecided: 9%


Wisconsin
Seaborn (D): 37%
Duke (R): 24%
Long (I): 21%
Buckner (G): 8%
Undecided: 10%


Projected Electoral Map
genusmap.php


Seaborn (D): 334 (+58) electoral votes
Long (I): 40 (+40) electoral votes
Duke (R): 3 (-78) electoral votes
Toss-up: 161 (-20) electoral votes


Changes
Alabama (9 EV): Duke to Toss-Up
Arkansas (6 EV): Duke
to Toss-Up
Florida (30 EV): Toss-Up
to Seaborn
Georgia (16 EV): Toss-Up
to Seaborn
Idaho (4 EV): Duke
to Toss-Up
Kansas (6 EV): Duke
to Toss-Up
Kentucky (8 EV): Duke
to Toss-Up
Louisiana (8 EV): Duke
to Toss-Up
Maine (4 EV): Seaborn
to Toss-Up
Mississippi (6 EV): Duke
to Toss-Up
Nebraska (5 EV): Duke
to Toss-Up
North Carolina (16 EV): Toss-Up
to Seaborn
North Dakota (3 EV): Duke
to Toss-Up
Oklahoma (7 EV): Duke
to Toss-Up
South Dakota (3 EV): Duke
to Toss-Up
Tennessee (11 EV): Duke
to Toss-Up
Texas (40 EV): Toss-Up
to Long
Utah (6 EV): Duke
to Toss-Up
West Virginia (4 EV): Duke
to Toss-Up
 
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However if Long starts to poll higher than 15% he's in the debate's and whatever the Long factor plays on Seaborn's fortune's, Duke's situation becomes even more hopeless. He loses Independents bigly, and only the hard core base Republican's (knuckle draggers, nut jobs, nationalists, racists and homophobes) will flock to his banner.

For my own amusement, I'd like to imagine a situation where the mainstream Republican voters start heading in Long's direction and the official Republican nominee doesn't even have the 15% required for inclusion in the debates but the independent (Long) does.
 
This election is heading in a very excitimg direction. Perhaps vote splitting will be so extreme that Seaborn wins a 49 state landslide. If anything the Democrats should be focusing heavily on Congressional and downballot races so they have strong majorities to advance their agenda.
 
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