2018 Presidential Election

And Duke's point again, is what? Or is just another case of blowing chow, because he or his campaign needs to be a news cycle for relevance?
It's basically a "Democrats are out-of-touch elitists" attack.

I am surprised not to see either Lou Thornton or Meredith Payne not on the list, as for Rudi Robinson, him being included on the list is just a nod to the African American community! Tokenism if you like.
What the fuck.

Elizabeth Bartlet is more of a nod to the Bartlet wing, my bet its likely to be Andrew Howard, its a low risk pick, doesn't offend anyone. Actually Sam has the luxury of choosing someone like Howard, whereas Duke will be hard pressed to find a choice with gravitas or someone who wants to be associated with a potential losing contender. Duke will likely be forced to find a low rent choice - more of his caliber - who just wants to be in any kind of news cycle. I can imagine that Duke's search for Veep is a question of looking for the proverbial 'needle in the haystack'. I noticed he hasn't released a final list of name's! Wonder why? Could it be, that our friend from Oklahoma is getting rejected, to the point its getting embarrassing? 🤔
Just a reminder that candidates publicly confirming who they are vetting is very unusual.

Duke is doing what presidential nominees usually do, which is keeping who he's looking at quiet until he announces his nominee.

Any chance of a reveal on a potential Seaborn-Duke map? It's unusually quiet in the polling stakes.
Unusually quiet? There was a presidential poll released five days ago.

We are going to start releasing state maps, but don't expect them with every single new poll. It's a bit more work to do state-by-state predictions when two third-party candidates (Andrew Long & the Greens) are taking a combined 15% in the polls.
 
It's basically a "Democrats are out-of-touch elitists" attack.


What the fuck.


Just a reminder that candidates publicly confirming who they are vetting is very unusual.

Duke is doing what presidential nominees usually do, which is keeping who he's looking at quiet until he announces his nominee.


Unusually quiet? There was a presidential poll released five days ago.

We are going to start releasing state maps, but don't expect them with every single new poll. It's a bit more work to do state-by-state predictions when two third-party candidates (Andrew Long & the Greens) are taking a combined 15% in the polls.
So Seaborn releasing a list of potential running mate's, could be a bit of rope-a-dope for Duke's benefit and that he's keeping his real list under wraps! In other words just a case of messing with Duke's head! Cruel if true 👍 but I like it! Duke should realize he's in the major leagues now! If I was Seaborn I'd screw around with Duke a bit more, so in no time at all, he won't know what's up, or what's down! I think LBJ did that with Goldwater in '64, pretty cool too! It showed that whatever LBJ did, Goldwater reacted, hence the Goldwater is a reactionary stuck! All Seaborn has to do, is anything that Duke does, run an ad about it or make a nuanced statement and forces Duke to respond and then twist Duke's response, to make him look and sound dumb or off the wall. It's dirty tricks at their best! Didn't Nixon do that sort of stuff with McGovern too?
 
So Seaborn releasing a list of potential running mate's, could be a bit of rope-a-dope for Duke's benefit and that he's keeping his real list under wraps! In other words just a case of messing with Duke's head! Cruel if true 👍 but I like it! Duke should realize he's in the major leagues now! If I was Seaborn I'd screw around with Duke a bit more, so in no time at all, he won't know what's up, or what's down! I think LBJ did that with Goldwater in '64, pretty cool too! It showed that whatever LBJ did, Goldwater reacted, hence the Goldwater is a reactionary stuck! All Seaborn has to do, is anything that Duke does, run an ad about it or make a nuanced statement and forces Duke to respond and then twist Duke's response, to make him look and sound dumb or off the wall. It's dirty tricks at their best! Didn't Nixon do that sort of stuff with McGovern too?
Maybe it is to show the voters they are taking the vetting process seriously after the Franklin Hollis debacle in 2018.
 
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Friday June 17th, 2022

South Carolina Governor Butler condemns state party tweet


Governor Ethan Butler of South Carolina today publicly condemned a tweet which had been posted by the state party's twitter account yesterday which was temporarily suspended by Twitter for re-posting a racist meme regarding two Democrats, Indiana Senator Rudi Robinson and former Virginia Governor Bobby Tyler.

"I 100% condemn the tweet, re-tweeted by our state party twitter account. I condemn all forms of racism, they have no place in the Republican party, or my administration", adding "that if anyone from my administration was found to have been involved, they will be dismissed". Butler also said that he spoken both the Chair of the RNC James Ritchie and the Duke Campaign, but he had been unable to speak directly to Alan Duke.

"I hope that the Presidential campaign will be a campaign of ideas, and policies, not frankly racist stereotyping, that I believe that we have left behind" Butler told a press conference. Privately sources close to the Governor told NBS that he was "furious" over the tweet. During the primary campaign Governor Butler stayed neutral and didn't endorse any candidate for the Republican nomination, although the state primary was won by Alan Duke.
 
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Looks like what I said a couple of months ago is already coming to pass. I had said that after Duke is trounced in November, the Republican Party will be in a position to repudiate him and try to move forward and pick up the pieces, unlike with Trump in OTL. Looks like Butler is already trying to establish himself as a 2026 candidate by doing just that.
 
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Duke if he doesn't realize it by now, the Republican party is putting distance between their brand and Duke! Essentially he's being cut adrift and they'll do diddly squat to help his a** after the Republican party's national convention! I imagine that the convention will focus on the down ballot candidates. Doesn't James Ritchie, the RNC chair decide the line-up of speakers? I can imagine the Duke campaign's input into the proceedings will be basically ignored. I can imagine they'll be a massive row between the RNC and the Duke campaign over the deliberations of the convention. Duke may have the delegates that makes him the standard bearer, but could it be that Ritchie and the RNC barely lift a finger to help him?
 
Hm, I wonder if Butler could pick Ritchie as a running mate in 2026? Two sons whose fathers ran for President and managing to accomplish what their fathers couldn't?
 
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NBS Election HQ: In first forecast, Seaborn projected to win majority in Electoral College

Monday, June 20th, 2022

NBS Election HQ's first forecast of the state of the presidential race has President Sam Seaborn (D) projected to take a majority in the Electoral College even if he were to lose every remaining swing state race.

Our first projection, based on polling, demographic modelling and previous election results, projects that Seaborn will take at least 276 electoral votes, five more than he would need to secure a majority in the Electoral College. Republican presumptive nominee Alan Duke, who trails Seaborn by 16 percentage points in the latest NBS/YouGov poll, is projected to carry a minimum of 81 electoral votes. The remaining 181 electoral votes, distributed among 12 states ranging in size from Alaska (with only three electoral votes) to Texas (with 40), could be won by either major-party candidate.

The state of the race is unsurprising given Duke's low approval ratings (only 33 percent of voters hold a favorable opinion of Duke compared to 54 percent who hold a favorable opinion of Seaborn) and the presence of independent candidate Andrew Long, who is openly courting Republican and Republican-leaning voters disaffected by Duke's polarizing statements and policy proposals. Long's presence is especially felt in his home state of Texas, where his presence could potentially tip the state to Seaborn, who would be the first northern Democrat to win the state since 1968.

Seaborn is currently projected to hold onto every state he won four years ago and pick up the state of New Mexico, which went for Henry Shallick by fewer than 500 votes. All 12 states that are considered to be toss-ups were won by Shallick in 2018, with two (Ohio and Florida) being states that Jimmy Fitzsimmons carried in 2014.

Presidential Election Polling
Seaborn (D): 47% (±0)
Duke (R): 31% (+3)
Long (I): 7% (-1)
Green: 5% (-1)
Undecided: 10% (-1)

Projected Election Map


genusmap.php


Seaborn (D): 276 electoral votes
Duke (R): 81 electoral votes
Toss-up: 181 electoral votes
 
We are going to be doing more presidential state maps, but to reiterate: we are not going to be updating the map every time we release a new poll.

It will be periodically updated, and we will be posting polls with more frequency as it gets closer to Election Day. But remember, we are also doing things like writing speeches and other articles for this thread, including for both the presidential and down-ballot races. Plus, we do have lives and obligations outside of this thread, so please keep that in mind as we enter into the general election phase of the presidential campaign.
 
We are going to be doing more presidential state maps, but to reiterate: we are not going to be updating the map every time we release a new poll.

It will be periodically updated, and we will be posting polls with more frequency as it gets closer to Election Day. But remember, we are also doing things like writing speeches and other articles for this thread, including for both the presidential and down-ballot races. Plus, we do have lives and obligations outside of this thread, so please keep that in mind as we enter into the general election phase of the presidential campaign.
Sounds reasonable.
 
I am even surprised Oklahoma is safe for Duke. He has already been rejected once by the voters of Oklahoma
That could change, if Long is a factor, he might siphon off enough votes from Duke to tip Oklahoma into Seaborn's column! How embarrassing would that be for Duke?
 
I'm surprised Duke doesn't have any appeal in the rustbelt states. Or does he actually have appeal and we won't find out about it till election night?
 
I'm surprised Duke doesn't have any appeal in the rustbelt states. Or does he actually have appeal and we won't find out about it till election night?
In other words the shy Duke voter who won't admit it, but will vote for Duke in the privacy of the polling booth, knowing full well that they can't be named and shamed! Some folks just can't be trusted 🤣 let's hope that there's not enough of them to make any sort of difference or we are facing what we got in OTL with Trump in 2016!
 
There is a big difference between 2016 IOTL and 2022 ITTL. In 2016, it was a race for an open White House with no incumbent running. Typically, voters do not like to give the same party the Presidency for more than 8 years at a time anyway. And Hillary Clinton was a very flawed candidate. Her support was a mile wide and an inch deep. There was the whole server issue. Seaborn is an incumbent President with decent approval ratings.
 
There is a big difference between 2016 IOTL and 2022 ITTL. In 2016, it was a race for an open White House with no incumbent running. Typically, voters do not like to give the same party the Presidency for more than 8 years at a time anyway. And Hillary Clinton was a very flawed candidate. Her support was a mile wide and an inch deep. There was the whole server issue. Seaborn is an incumbent President with decent approval ratings.
This is very good analysis. One of the reasons ATL 2018 election was so close, because it was an open race, between two very strong candidates, plus a strong third party candidate as well. If 2018 had been Walken running for a third team, Walken probably would have won.

Also this is one of the reasons back in 2010 it was decided that Santos winning a 2nd term, after eight years of Bartlet would be pushing credibility a bit 2 far.
 
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