2018 Presidential Election
- Thread starter Marky Bunny
- Start date
Sorry, misunderstood your question. But never the less by December this year, the story will be fourteen years old!!!
No fixed dates, they will be announced before the up coming conventions (GOP is July 11th to July 14th), Dems (July 18th to July 21st).
Stupid question, but if Liz Bartlet is term limited as Governor, wouldn't the logical thing be for her to run for the Senate against Ellie Wilkins? They hate each other anyway from the 2014 election for Governor.
We're working on an article about the gubernatorial races, so your question will be answered then.
Top Stories This Week
Duke unveils radical economic vision to end "dependency on government"
Tuesday, May 24th, 2022
Former senator Alan Duke told voters on Tuesday of his economic proposals that he said were to "end a culture of dependency on government." The presumptive Republican presidential nominee outlined a massive economic restructuring that would see a radical restructuring of American's tax burdens, the abolition of multiple federal agencies and making federal entitlement programs responsibilities of state governments. Speaking to business executives in Chicago, Duke proposed the implementation of a flat tax of 15%, abolishing the departments of Energy, Education, Commerce and Housing and Urban Development as well as the federal Environmental Protective Agency, and would order the dispersal of funds for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security beneficiaries to state programs that would be implemented by 2030.
Democrats slammed the plan as "disastrous for the economy, environment and the lives of millions of Americans who rely on [entitlement programs]" in the words of Senate Minority Leader Jimmy Fitzsimmons (D-MA), while also citing the massive benefit Duke's plan would give to top income earners at the expense of the lowest: Americans earning under $40,000 per year would see their federal income taxes increase, while those in the maximum tax bracket (earning over $540K per year) would see their effective tax rate cut at least in half. Economists also said that Duke's plan, combined with his pledge to increase military spending, would result in "massive market uncertainty in the short-term" if implemented and would dramatically increase the federal budget. Many elected Republicans also either distanced themselves from the proposal or openly criticized it, with retiring senator Randall Thomas (R-MI), chair of the Senate Finance Committee, saying it was "half-baked at best."
Seaborn opens up 15-point lead in polls
Thursday, May 26th, 2022
The latest NBS/YouGov poll shows that President Seaborn has opened up a 15 percent lead over presumptive Republican nominee Alan Duke, a net increase of seven percent over the eight percent lead Seaborn had in late April.
Polls show the president currently favored by 45 percent of voters, with Duke at 30 percent and independent Andrew Long at nine percent. Six percent of voters still say they are likely to support the Green Party nominee, who will be chosen at the party's July convention.
Seaborn (D): 45% (+3)
Duke (R): 30% (-4)
Long (I): 9% (+1)
Green: 6% (±0)
Undecided: 10% (±0)
Duke (R): 30% (-4)
Long (I): 9% (+1)
Green: 6% (±0)
Undecided: 10% (±0)
Ritter: NDAA will reestablish Space Command
Sunday, May 22nd, 2022
Senator Andy Ritter (D-NM), ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told NBC's Meet the Press that next year's National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) will restore the United States Space Command, which was disbanded in 2008 after the Patriot scandal, where the military was revealed to have developed and operated a secret space shuttle in violation of treaties forbidding the militarization of space. Speaking with moderator Chuck Todd, Ritter said that both he and chairman Samuel Wilkinson (R-KS) were convinced of the need to re-form the united command after "multiple consultations with...officers from different branches of the military and analysts from the Pentagon."
After Space Command was disbanded in 2008, space operations were returned to the various military branches, a situation that was widely criticized among military officers and enlisted men and women involved in space operations. Ritter cautioned that a return of Space Command will not change current space operations, but instead "streamline space operations across all military branches and provide better oversight." An executive order instituted by former president Matthew Santos forbids all manned military space operations.
Mixed reaction to Duke VP search committee
Wednesday, May 25th, 2022
Republican presumptive presidential nominee Alan Duke announced on Wednesday the three-man team who would oversee the search for his running mate. The head of the committee, former Nebraska governor John Moore, was met with widespread approval from Republicans and conservative, but the two other members, former American Christian Assembly (ACA) leader George Rohr and campaign manager Mark Patterson, resulted in mixed reception, with moderates and establishment Republicans expressing disapproval and concern. Rohr in particular, was criticized by surrogates of Illinois senator Jasper Irving, owing to previous statements about the separation of church and state and homosexuality.
The committee will be tasked with vetting potential running mates and working with Duke to create a shortlist of potential nominees for the former senator to choose from.
US plans to withdraw nearly 10,000 troops from Qumar by September
Monday, May 23rd, 2022
On Monday, the Department of Defense confirmed reports that approximately 10,000 American troops stationed in Qumar would be returned to the United States by the end of August, reducing the total number of American troops there to 30,000.
The news came while State Department officials continue to negotiate with the government of Qumar over a status of force agreement to outline continued American military involvement in the Persian Gulf state. British Prime Minister Michael Duggan announced earlier this month that the British government would not take part in a status of force agreement, signaling that Britain would begin to end its military commitment in Qumar. Earlier this month, the UK redeployed 1,000 of its 5,000 soldiers stationed in Qumar to the Sovereign Base Areas (SBAs) in Cyprus to provide further security and logistical aid for the large refugee population that has been given sanctuary there since the Turkish invasion last September.
I'm surprised the Green nominee has that same 6% baseline of support that Straus got in 2018 after the whole Franklin Hollis debacle. Do they really hate Seaborn that much?
Last edited:
Actually, I think it may be that the Green nominee is polling at 6% precisely because Seaborn is 15 points ahead. Those 6% are saying, "He doesn't need our vote, so we can vote for the Green candidate to make a statement." I think that if it Duke starts to gain in the fall and is within striking distance and it looks like he may actually have a shot, a good chunk of that 6% will carefully consider the prospect of President Alan Duke and will gravitate towards Seaborn.
After realizing that we dropped the ball on Northern Ireland's election, Mark & I came up with this for TTL's 2021 elections (there was one mentioned as occurring in the old thread in 2016, but none since then):
Cast
Adrian Dunbar as Seamus Flynn
Geraldine Somerville as Katherine O'Neill
Paula Malcomson as Paula Higgins (new character)
Ciarán McMenamin as Liam O'Neill (new character)
Martin McCann as Jim McGuire (new character)
Roma Downey as Clare Gibbon (new character)
Gerard McSorley as Ian Gallagher (new character)
Ian McElhinney as Paddy O'Shaughnessy (new character)
- Northern Ireland does not have an official flag. The banner you commonly see used for their national football (soccer) team or to represent Northern Irish athletes is the Ulster Banner that was used by the original government there until it was abolished in 1973.
- The note next to the NI Assembly name explains that the previous assembly in 2016 elected 108 members of the legislative assembly (MLAs). This mirrors OTL, where the 2017 election was the first with 90 MLAs instead of 108.
- The note next to Katherine O'Neill's name indicates that she is the leader of Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland, not the party as a whole. Like OTL, Sinn Féin also runs for office in the Republic of Ireland, and their current president (Mary O'Connor) holds office in the Dáil Éireann.
- The note next to Liam O'Neill's name indicates that he currently serves as the MP for Foyle in Westminster.
- Northern Ireland uses the single-transferrable vote system (CGP Grey's explainer here) like the Republic of Ireland. All of the constituencies are the same as the ones that elect the country's 18 MPs to London.
- Because of the history of sectarian violence, Northern Ireland's executive needs to be made up of both unionist (parties that NI want to stay within the UK, typically Protestant and right-wing) and republican (parties that want NI to join the Republic of Ireland, typically Catholic and left-wing). Changes since the Good Friday Agreement (which ended the Troubles both IOTL & ITTL) also made it so that the top two executive positions—the First Minister and deputy First Minister (no, that's not a typo; it really is "deputy First Minister", not "Deputy First Minister")—must be held by leaders of the largest unionist and largest republican parties. In this case, Flynn of the DUP and O'Neill of Sinn Féin.
- There also exists a mechanism in case no government can be formed, or if it falls apart and can't reconstitute itself: the devolution of powers to the NI Assembly is suspended and Northern Ireland is ruled directly from London. IOTL, it's happened for an extended period twice (2002 to 2017 and recently from 2017 to January of this year), while *here* it only happened once (the 2002-2007 period).
- Of the eight parties that won seats ITTL's 2021 election, three are unionist (DUP, UUP, TUV) and two (Sinn Féin, SDLP) are nationalist. The other three (Alliance, NI Greens & SA) are designated as "other" parties that do not take a position on whether Northern Ireland should remain in the UK or join the rest of Ireland.
Cast
Adrian Dunbar as Seamus Flynn
Geraldine Somerville as Katherine O'Neill
Paula Malcomson as Paula Higgins (new character)
Ciarán McMenamin as Liam O'Neill (new character)
Martin McCann as Jim McGuire (new character)
Roma Downey as Clare Gibbon (new character)
Gerard McSorley as Ian Gallagher (new character)
Ian McElhinney as Paddy O'Shaughnessy (new character)
Last edited:
NBS Election HQ: Gubernatorial race ratings
Sunday, May 29th, 2022
With the presidential primary process almost at an end, most states have begun their primaries for down-ballot races. With several races' nominees having been decided by those same primaries, NBS' political team is ready to release our initial race ratings for all the gubernatorial races that will be up in 2022.
One caveat that should be kept in mind is that several incumbents who are eligible to run for re-election have been rumored to be on the short-list for the vice presidential nomination of either the Democratic or Republican tickets. State laws differ about whether that incumbent would be allowed to run for re-election simultaneously, and if not, it could substantially impact the rating of the race.
Alabama
Incumbent: Edward West (R)
Rating: Safe R
Notes: West has little to worry about in deep-red Alabama even if the Republican presidential ticket continues to struggle in the polls.
Arizona
Incumbent: Scott Phillips (R) - term-limited
Rating: Toss-Up
Notes: The open race in Arizona looks likely to be a tough race for both parties, similar to the Senate race incumbent governor Scott Phillips (prevented from seeking a third term by term limits) is running in. While both parties have multiple candidates who could win their nominations for the August primary, Democrats seem to have already settled on secretary of state Kate Fernandez, while the GOP race looks to be down to congressman Troy Foster and activist Jan Kaznowski, whose outlandish claims and ties to fringe far-right groups have alarmed Republican leaders in Phoenix.
California
Incumbent: Abbie Heilemann (D) - term-limited
Rating: Safe D
Notes: While former Secretary of Labor Gael Cordova still has to win the Democratic primary in June, his overwhelming fundraising advantage and endorsements from Democratic power-players from the White House to local officials in California mean he's all but assured to have won the Democratic nomination. Which, in a blue state like California, means he will become the next governor in November, the first Latino to do so in almost 150 years.
Colorado
Incumbent: Lance McKey (D)
Rating: Lean D
Notes: While the Republicans have yet to pick between the two state senators (Gus Lopez and Tom Ronchetti) looking to take on McKey, they'll likely find it to be a tough road. Colorado has moved into a state that leans Democratic on the presidential level, and McKey has succeeded in keeping all parts of the Democratic coalition in the Centennial State happy.
Connecticut
Incumbent: Cal Beaushaw (D)
Rating: Safe D
Notes: With no gubernatorial term limits, Beaushaw is running for a third term. At 71, he's made it clear that this will be his final political campaign, and with the empty Connecticut Republican bench, likely the easiest gubernatorial campaign he will face.
Georgia
Incumbent: Jeremy Johnson (R)
Rating: Lean R
Notes: For the first time in years, the winner of the Georgia Republican primary doesn't have an easy ride to the governor's mansion. Johnson won last Tuesday's GOP primary unopposed, but the Democrats put up activist and state senator Kelsey Gardner. Gardner is the charismatic face of the push by younger and African-American activists to expand voting rights and access in Georgia and would be both Georgia's first female and first African-American governor should she win. The result will ultimately hinge on both the presidential race and how well state Democrats' turnout efforts perform.
Hawaii
Incumbent: Shane Burns (D)
Rating: Safe D
Notes: Hawaii is one of the safest Democratic states in the nation (nearly 70% of voters there voted for President Seaborn four years ago), and with the weakness of Republicans in the Aloha State, Burns' reelection is assured.
Indiana
Incumbent: Matthew Stillman (R)
Rating: Safe R
Notes: While Stillman has been floated as a possible running mate for Alan Duke, state law would require him to abandon what polls say would be an easy re-election campaign to join a GOP ticket down by double-digits at the start of June. Unless he decides to take that risk and forces the state GOP to find a last-minute replacement to run for governor, we're projecting this race will be an easy Republican victory over state representative Jonathan Dawes, the only Democrat remaining ahead of next week's primary.
Iowa
Incumbent: James Edwards (D)
Rating: Toss-Up
Notes: Edwards is one of the top targets for Republicans this year, having won in 2018 thanks to incumbent Carl York's attempt to secure a third term by stoking culture war issues (attempting to ban same-sex marriage and promoting a group that practiced conversion therapy on LGBT youth). He's clashed repeatedly with the GOP legislature, but still has solid approval ratings in the Republican-leaning state. Congressman Kevin Nix is the clear front runner in next week's Republican primary, and has already shifted to general election footing.
Louisiana
Incumbent: Kevin Haynes (R)
Rating: Safe R
Notes: Democrats in the Pelican State were encouraged by Rick Remick hanging on to his Senate seat in 2020, but seem to have accepted that Colfax mayor Simon Law (the party's gubernatorial nominee) will not come close to unseating Haynes this year.
Massachusetts
Incumbent: Sam Rust (D)
Rating: Safe D
Notes: While it won't be official until the state's gubernatorial primary in early September, incumbent governor Sam Rust will win the Democratic nomination for a third time in a row. His likely opponent, state senator Lewis Taylor, has been attempting to distance himself from Alan Duke and has dropped hints that he may support independent presidential candidate Andrew Long instead.
Michigan
Incumbent: Ben Laurion (R) - term-limited
Rating: Lean D
Notes: Ben Laurion's stunning fall from GOP frontrunner for the presidency to electoral albatross has had massive down-ballot effects in Michigan. Laurion's successor as state attorney general, Dianne Maguire, is almost sure to be the Democratic nominee after the August primary and has already been playing up her own role in the investigation into state regulatory agencies' actions under Laurion. Businessman Ted Podres leads the pack of Republican candidates that is notable for its lack of heavy hitters.
Montana
Incumbent: Monty Fisher (R)
Rating: Toss-Up
Notes: Montana gaining a second seat in the House of Representatives and the subsequent redistricting put at-large congressman Alan Price (D) out of a job. So now he wants Fisher's. Between Montana's unique political dynamics, Fisher already distancing himself from Alan Duke, and Price's high name-recognition, this is going to be an interesting race to watch.
Nevada
Incumbent: Dalton Creel (D)
Rating: Toss-Up
Notes: Like the state's simultaneous Senate election, the gubernatorial race here is shaping up to be a tough contest even if the state is almost certainly going to vote for Sam Seaborn again. Creel is all but assured of the Democratic nomination, and former congressman Joey Cano has pulled ahead in polls for the GOP nomination thanks to a significant fundraising advantage. Should Cano win the nomination, this would set-up a rematch of the 2018 contest, which Creel won by fewer than 2,500 votes.
New Hampshire
Incumbent: Elizabeth Bartlet (D)
Rating: Lean D
Notes: The eldest daughter of former president Josiah Bartlet is reportedly under consideration to be Sam Seaborn's running mate. The question about whether Seaborn, who attempted to nominate Barlet's mother, former First Lady Abby Bartlet, to be Secretary of Health and Human Services, should do such a thing is a matter best left to the comments section. But if Bartlet is nominated, she could also continue running for a third term as governor. Businessman Walt Lacroix is heads and shoulders above other announced GOP candidates in terms of fundraising and endorsements, but will face an uphill struggle if Bartlet remains focused entirely on her re-election bid.
New Mexico
Incumbent: Will Diego (D)
Rating: Lean D
Notes: Diego is another contender for the Democratic vice presidential nomination, and unlike fellow governor Elizabeth Bartlet (NH, see above), he would have to end his bid for re-election if he is chosen to join the ticket. With Diego unopposed for next week's Democratic primary, the prediction with him in the race is that he would likely prevail over his most likely opponent, state representative Rick Tinnin (R). If he is chosen as Seaborn's running mate, this race's rating will almost certainly change to a toss-up.
New York
Incumbent: Hakeem El-Amin (D)
Rating: Safe D
Notes: El-Amin's selection as part of Sam Seaborn's vice presidential search committee highlights the high regard the national party sees in New York's current chief executive. His likely opponent, congressman Del Roberts (R), should just hope that he can drive up the GOP turnout in enough upstate and Long Island areas to keep the party competitive in the state legislature.
North Carolina
Incumbent: David McNamara (R) - term-limited
Rating: Lean R
Notes: Lieutenant Governor Gabriel Huxley is the odds-on favorite to succeed McNamara, who rebounded from a Senate career dogged by extramarital affairs and substance abuse to be one of the nation's most popular governors. However, as of now, with the presumptive Republican presidential nominee trailing President Seaborn by over a dozen percentage points, there remains a chance that state senator Erica Johnson (the Democratic nominee) could make it to the governor's mansion.
Ohio
Incumbent: Art Scheider (R)
Rating: Toss-Up
Notes: Ohio's race is one of the trickiest to predict at this juncture. Scheider is unpopular and trails the Democratic nominee, congresswoman and former governor Josie Bail, in every head-to-head poll since Bail won the Democratic primary earlier this month. However, the Ohio Green Party is caught in a fracas over the call by former senator Haydn Straus, former senator and the party's presidential nominee four years ago, to withdraw their nominee, attorney Sarah Clark-Green, and endorse Bail. Clark-Green, who had run as a paper candidate for Straus under the assumption that he would join the race, has joined in calling for a special meeting of the party's executive to decide the matter. Additionally, Scheider has been under consideration to join the GOP ticket, and if selected, would have to be replaced with a new gubernatorial nominee. With both the uncertainty over whether a Green candidate will remain on the ballot, and if Scheider will indeed remain the Republican nominee, we cannot predict the outcome of this race with any degree of certainty.
South Dakota
Incumbent: Richard Dean (R)
Rating: Safe R
Notes: Dean won almost 70% of the vote four years ago, and it seems likely he will achieve a similarly high vote total this year.
Tennessee
Incumbent: Terrance Klein (D)
Rating: Toss-Up
Notes: Despite Tennessee being solidly Republican, Klein has strong approval ratings for a Democratic governor in the South. Congressman Walter Peterson is leading in polls for the Republican primary in August. Whoever the Republicans nominate will have a good shot at unseating Klein, but only if they can avoid antagonizing either part of the split in the Republican camp that has resulted from Alan Duke's victory in the presidential primaries.
Wisconsin
Incumbent: Mark Croft (R)
Rating: Toss-Up
Notes: Wisconsin is going to have two tough re-election campaigns for statewide Republicans this year, with both Croft and senator James Clarke seeking re-election. Croft's likely opponent, Dane County executive and former teacher Chris Bock, has decided to make the cuts to education funding passed under Croft and the Republican-led state legislature a central issue of the campaign. Clarke, meanwhile, is touting his economic record as a pitch for re-election, even as Wisconsin's state rankings in economic metrics have changed very little since Croft became governor.
Atlantis Cable News
President Seaborn addresses notable absences from Memorial Day event
Washington D.C.- Following a Memorial Day event at the Lincoln Memorial, President Seaborn fielded questions from the White House Press Corps. Chief among them was the notable absence of White House Deputy Communications Director John Edwards and White House Press Secretary Cassie Tatum. Both had been present earlier in the day at an event at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. When asked about the absence, the President has this to say: "Everyone is our great land is going to do what they are going to do on a day like today. Today means something entirely different to John that is does to me. How could it mean the same thing? Everyone views this day differently that the person next to them. John & Cassie are somewhere else today. They've long had, as John loves to say, 'my leave to do so'. Both will be back at their desks in the morning. How they choose to spend that time between now & then, is no one else's business."
in a follow up question, the President was asked if he had thanked Edwards & Chief of Staff Will Bailey for their service. The President stated that per their request, he had not. "Today isn't about veterans. God knows how the media will spin that. It's about those who made the ultimate sacrifice for their country. It about those who never came home. Those who never had the chance to say goodbye. We should thank our veterans everyday; but today, it's about something else. I hope that everyone can understand that."
The President took part in several events across the Captial today at several different locations.
I agree. Liz Bartlett is the one person on that list who would not be good choice. Maybe a cabinet position during the second term, but not VP.
Wednesday June 1st, 2022
Duke wins with blowouts in the two final primary's
Alan Duke won the final two Republican Primary election of the 2022 campaign, with wins in the two final states of New Mexico and South Dakota. He polled around 78% of the vote in New Mexico and almost 84% in South Dakota. Jasper Irving who is has still yet to formally concede the nomination, managed only 18% and 10% in both states.
These two states leave the final result looking like this.
Primary Results (1,245 delegates required for the nomination)
Alan Duke (OK): 11,814,449 votes (37.18%) --- 1,447 delegates
Jasper Irving (IL): 10,206,336 votes (32.12%) --- 720 delegates
Ruth Norton-Stewart (OH): 8,958,427 votes (28.20%) --- 374 delegates
other candidates: 784,000 votes (2.51%) --- 0 delegates
Margin: 1,608,113 votes (5.06%)-- 727 delegates (Duke through the delegate margin by 202)
Alan Duke is the 2022 Republican nominee for President