2018 Presidential Election

Former Michigan Congressman Gus Edwards on the campaign trail in the last few days

A more casual Edwards at a meeting in Cedar Rapids in Iowa on Friday

New NYC mayor will allow request for federal civil rights investigation of NYPD

Sunday, January 9th, 2021

New York City Mayor Gerald Kim (D) will allow a formal request to the Civil Rights Division of the Department of Justice to investigate the New York Police Department (NYPD) to go through the New York City Council. A spokeswoman for Kim, who took office on January 1st, said that the mayor will neither veto nor sign the request, which under the city's charter, will become official after 30 days.

"The mayor feels that the uncovered abuses of authority under the Section 19 guidelines must be investigated to the fullest extent of the law, especially the disturbing reports of racial and religious profiling of Muslims and immigrant communities from the Middle East."

Kim's predecessor, Richard Corey, was a decorated former NYPD officer who had vetoed a previous resolution last year requesting federal investigation of civil rights abuses under Section 19, citing his concern that the invitation would "exceed its proposed mandate." Victories by progressive Democrats in both the mayoral and city council elections shifted the political dynamic in city government on this issue and the motion, which had previously narrowly passed the council under Corey, was passed easily in one of the first sessions since Kim became mayor.

Police Commissioner Kiara Thompson, who was appointed by Kim shortly after he was sworn in as mayor, has already ordered a moratorium on new investigations citing the Section 19 provisions of the city's 2015 police funding bill passed in the wake of the 2015 Times Square bombing and an internal review of all ongoing investigations justified under the provisions.

Police unions have protested both Thompson's actions and the request for federal investigation, with Municipal Policeman's Brotherhood president Tim O'Shea saying it would "tie the hands of dedicated law enforcement officers" and "create a chilling effect" for proactive investigations to prevent future attacks in the nation's largest city.

"It's unfair for the people in power to ask the men and women of the NYPD in one minute to move heaven and earth to protect the city from a terrorist attack, then turn around and lambast those same men and women for doing what they needed to do." O'Shea said in a video posted to Facebook Live.

Lawsuits filed in the wake of last year's explosive New York Times investigation that exposed Section 19 allege multiple instances of NYPD officers committing unconstitutional civil rights violations, including illegal surveillance, illegal searches and seizures, indefinite detention of suspects, and racial and ethnic profiling of Muslim and Middle Eastern communities.



Sunday, January 9 2022

US moves 1,000 troops to Germany

— Secretary of Defense Jack Shannon announced that the Department of Defense would transfer one thousand soldiers to US Army bases in Germany, as tensions between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine remain high. Shannon said that 500 of those transferred would come from the 40,000 American soldiers in Qumar and the rest from units stationed in the US.

"This slight increase in forces [in Germany] has come as a result of joint assessments of the United States and commanders in the Bundeswehr," Shannon said, referring to the German armed forces. "There is no plans for further increases at this point in time."

Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Fyodor Avodin called the troop increase "provocative" and said that Washington was "needlessly escalating" the situation in eastern Europe. Fox News contributor and retired general Lloyd Pendleton echoed Avodin's sentiments, saying the increase in US troops was unnecessary and that removing soldiers from Qumar was "an irresponsible dereliction of the true fight against Islamist terror."

A Pentagon spokesman said that the 500 troops removed from the Qumar theater would not be replaced owing to "the improved security situation in several provinces", reducing the US presence there to around 39,500 soldiers.



Sunday, 9 January 2022

PM's struggles lead to first Labour lead in nearly dozen years

Prime Minister Michael Duggan's struggles since arriving at 10 Downing Street has been reflected in the latest nationwide opinion polling of the new year, with Labour opening its first lead above the margin of error for the first time in nearly a dozen years.

Polls released today show that Labour is the choice of 37% of respondents, six points ahead of the Conservatives at 31%. The NPP and Liberal Democrats have risen slightly to 14% and 11% respectively. Labour leader Jack Coll similarly leads Duggan in the "preferred prime minister" poll by a similar margin (35% to 30%), the first time a Tory leader has been behind his Labour counterpart since the party returned to power in 2011.

"It can't be said that it's been a smooth transition," one Tory MP told the BBC, referring to the change in leadership from Richard Samuels to Duggan. Another cited the prime minister's inability to thread the needle on hot-button issues, including a referendum on membership in the European Union, as causing the party to shed support to the NPP and other Euroskeptic parties. Some in the party also have criticized the prime minister over his handling of the Cyprus affair, with the right-wing of the party urging further reinforcement of the Sovereign Base Areas in spite of Turkish and Northern Cypriot forces appearing uninterested in assaulting them. Others have taken issue with the government refusing to draw-down the 5,000 British troops remaining in Qumar in spite of the withdrawal of Iranian and Chinese forces, as well as multiple reductions in the number of American troops under President Seaborn.

But pollsters found that the reason for this latest dip is the result of several Conservative members and former members of parliament being implicated in "sleaze" scandals involving breaking parliament's ethics and disclosure laws, improper steering of government contracts and concerns over several appointments to the House of Lords in the New Year's Honours List. Notably, financier and former Conservative treasurer Tom Finch, who has donated over £3 million to the Conservative Party, was nominated to the Lords over a unanimous objection by the House of Lords Appointment Commission, the first time a prime minister has done so since the commission's establishment.

Monday 10th January 2022

Breaking News: Pope Emeritus Victor IV Has Died.

The Vatican has just announced that Pope Emeritus Victor IV has died at the age of 96. He was found this morning in his room, having died in his sleep.

The first African Pope in over 1500 years, and the first sub-Saharan African, Pope Victor was also one of the longest serving popes of the modern era, serving for twenty-four years. He became only the second Pope of the modern era, to resign rather than die in office, when he retired three years ago, following Pope Celestine VI in 1981. He retired on the grounds of increasing ill health, wishing to surrender the office while he was still capable.

Born Jean-Luc Kabuga in Rwanda in 1925, he entered the priesthood following the death of his wife. Gradually rising up the ranks, he became Archbishop of Kigali in 1976 and was made a Cardinal four years later. He became Camerlengo or Papal Chamberlain in 1989 and following a brief return to his homeland became a Cardinal in the Vatican in early 1995. He was elected to succeed Pope Paul VII in the 1995 conclave.

Considered a liberal-moderate the election of the conservative Pope Clement XV as his successor was seen by some experts as a snub towards Pope Victor’s policies. However, during his long tenure Pope Victor was deeply loved and admired even by those who disagreed with him, seen by many as a good man despite disagreements. His efforts to promote those he disagreed with also demonstrated a desire not to be theologically typecast.

In a recorded statement, Pope Clement said that “Pope Emeritus Victor has finished the race that was set before him and has claimed the victors crown. He remained until the end what he had always been, a man of God and a man of prayer. He was deeply loved by many generations of Catholics and he will be sorely missed.”

The Archbishop of Westminster His Emience Nolan McCormack (who was made a Cardinal by Pope Victor) also released a statement saying “Not only the church, but the world, has lost a great leader and a great man. Men like Pope Victor come along but once in a generation.”

Statements have also been issued by Prime Minister Duggan, the Leader of the Opposition, Buckingham Palace and by President Seaborn.

It is understood the Pope Emeritus’ funeral will be a private affair in accordance with his wishes. It is also understood that there are already moves afoot in the Vatican to begin the Canonisation process, which would make the Pope Emeritus a saint.
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OOC: The decision to kill off the Pope Emeritus was greenlit by Marky in light of the recent death of Sidney Poitier. He was originally cast as Pope Victor in honour of the fact that he had at one point been considered for the role of Jed Bartlet
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Wednesday January 12th, 2022

Iowa Caucus: Duke wins as Norton-Stewart holds off Irving challenge for second place

Alan Duke won as expected the Iowa cacus, the first of the elections to decide who will be the Republican nominee to face President Sam Seaborn in the November Presidential election.

The results where in line with the polls, with Duke polling just under 40% of the vote, with Ohio Senator Ruth Norton-Stewart just edging out her fellow Senator Jasper Irving of Illinois by 1.32%. Former Senate Majority leader Robert Royce finished in fourth place but was over 13% behind Irving. Former Michigan Congressman Gus Edwards was in fifth place with 5.39%. Georgia Senator Charlie Forrester failed to reach 3% of the vote, with former North Carolina Governor Andrew Wu polling just 2.32%. After him came Michigan Governor Ben Laurion, who remained on the ballot despite withdrawing from the race, in final place came Californian Congressman Alton Moore who just polled 479 votes, a mere (0.19% of the vote).

Within in the minutes of the result both Wu and Moore announced that they had "suspended" their campaigns whilst Alan Duke told his supporters at a rally in Des Mosines " We are showing that the American people want a true Conservative to be our standard bearer, not those RINO's who are my opponents" adding "this result proves that only I can defeat that dangerous communist in the White House".

The other candidate who was happy with the result was Jasper Irving, with his campaign team saying that "we had out performed expectations, and that Duke was always going to win Iowa" saying that "the Senator can win big in New Hampshire next Tuesday" adding " we can win the nomination".

Full Results
38 Delegates

CandidatePopular Vote% Vote
Alan Duke101,97839.80%
Ruth Norton-Stewart55,24721.56%
Jasper Irving51,85920.24%
Robert Royce17,9637.01%
Gus Edwards13,8075.39%
Charlie Forrester7,4492.91%
Andrew Wu5,9452.32%
Ben Laurion1,5120.59%
Alton Moore4790.19%
Total Vote: 256,239Margin: 46,731Margin: 18.24%
*Ben Laurion remained on the ballot despite withdrawing from the race.
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Illinois Senator Jasper Irving arriving to address his supporters after his strong third placed finished in the Iowa Caucus yesterday.
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Thursday January 13th, 2022

Latest New Hampshire Polling

  1. Irving 34%
  2. Norton-Stewart 24%
  3. Duke 16%
  4. Edwards 11%
  5. Royce 8%
  6. Forrester 2%
Undecided/others: 5%
*Polling done of 3,000 NH voters taken since Iowa.
One person probably kicking himself now is Andrew Wu. Remember how he was torn between running for President or for his old job as Governor of North Carolina? I'll bet he wishes he chose the latter now. He was a popular and successful governor and likely would have won.
One person probably kicking himself now is Andrew Wu. Remember how he was torn between running for President or for his old job as Governor of North Carolina? I'll bet he wishes he chose the latter now. He was a popular and successful governor and likely would have won.
Not necessarily. Being popular or in one capacity doesn't guarantee success in another. Even in TOTL, so many candidates were predicted to be formidable presidential candidates and failed to attract intereste as they once had (Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Kamala Harris, Beto O'Rourke...)
Not necessarily. Being popular or in one capacity doesn't guarantee success in another. Even in TOTL, so many candidates were predicted to be formidable presidential candidates and failed to attract intereste as they once had (Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Kamala Harris, Beto O'Rourke...)
Neither does being "expected"

I recall a bunch of timelines written on the site assuming Pawlenty could defeat Obama easily or a strong contender... those did not pan out even slightly

Friday January 14th, 2022

Former New York Governor Cole will not seek GOP Senate nomination as he takes up teaching post

Rob Cole, the former Republican Governor of New York in a surprise announcement today said that would not be seeking the Republican Senate nomination to take on incumbent Senator Tim Burrell in this coming November's election.

In a YouTube video, Cole a teacher by profession announced that he "had been offered the chance of a lifetime" to became Department Chair of Political Science and Public Administration at the University of North Dakota in Grands Forks. He had visited the University back in 2020 when he was campaigning for Governor Middleton during her re-election victory.

The decision of Cole to decline the race, and withdraw from politics for the time being, leaves the Republican Senate nomination open, whilst Cole may be using the chance to keep his head down if Alan Duke wins the Republican Presidential nomination and goes down to defeat. Cole has already endorsed Illinois Senator Jasper Irving, and might see an opening for a Presidential run in 2026.
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Moore endorses Duke as New Hampshire nears

Friday, January 14th, 2022

Congressman Alton Moore (CA), who suspended his presidential campaign following an abysmal performance in Iowa on Tuesday, became the first withdrawn candidate to endorse another candidate, throwing his support to former senator Alan Duke (OK).

"Senator Duke offers a real conservative vision for this country," Moore said in a short press conference at his Washington office. "I believe he is the only candidate left for our party's nomination who I believe has the proper philosophical understanding of what our federal government should and should not be doing under the Constitution."

Moore's nomination is unlikely to affect much, especially in New Hampshire, where Duke is polling far behind senators Jasper Irving (IL) and Ruth Norton-Stewart (OH). The chairman of the House Administration Committee got 0.2% of the vote in Iowa on Tuesday and had by far the fewest funds raised of any of the active Republican presidential candidates.

Former governor Andrew Wu (NC), who similarly withdrew after a poor showing in Iowa, said he would not consider endorsing any candidate until North Carolina's March 8th primary.



Friday, January 14 2022

Ohio maps tossed by state Supreme Court

— The Ohio Supreme Court has invalidated all three legislative maps passed by the Ohio legislature and signed into law by Governor Art Scheider (R) for the next decade, saying each in turn violated the state constitution's provision of unduly favoring one party.

A 4-3 majority of the court struck down the map for Ohio's seats in the House of Representatives today, finding it was tilted too far in favor of the Republicans to meet the threshold established by a constitutional amendment passed in 2018 to ensure fair districts. The congressional map would have given Republicans a 12-3 advantage in the Buckeye State, which went for Jimmy Fitzsimmons in 2014 and Henry Shallick in 2018.

The Ohio Democratic Party and its supporters cheered the decision, issuing a statement that the Supreme Court "did something the Republican legislators refused to do: listen to the will of the voters...[who] do not want politicians drawing districts that rig the system against one party."

The redistricting process will return to the Ohio Redistricting Commission, which was reconstituted earlier this week when the state house map was similarly invalidated for overrepresenting Republicans (the state senate map was also invalidated earlier this week on the same grounds as the other maps).



Former governor Jonathan Fowler dead at 72

Friday, January 14th, 2021

Former governor Jonathan Fowler, a member of one of New Jersey's most powerful political families, has passed away at age 72. A spokeswoman for the Fowler family confirmed that Fowler "passed away peacefully in his sleep" sometime in the night between Thursday evening and Friday afternoon.

The Fowler family has a long legacy in New Jersey legal circles, with Jonathan's grandfather Elias briefly serving as the acting US Attorney General under Calvin Coolidge (he was passed over for the position by future Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Harlan F. Stone). After graduating first Princeton and then Rutgers Law School, Fowler bucked the trend by winning a seat in the state senate in a 1987 special election as a Republican. He spent the next 14 years there, becoming popular with his colleagues and groomed for higher office. In 2001, he successfully won the Republican nomination for governor and then the governorship itself.

As governor, Fowler won several highly-publicized battles with the Democratic legislature on budget issues, raising his national profile. His dissatisfaction with the state of politics in Trenton led him to announce that he was running for president in 2005, simultaneous to running for re-election. In a divided field, Fowler briefly served as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2006, but when popular California senator Arnold Vinick announced he was running, the governor abandoned his bid and endorsed him (Vinick would win the nomination but narrowly lose the election to Matthew Santos). His attempt to run for president simultaneously while running for re-election as governor went over poorly; Fowler, who had topped 70% approval at points before his run for the presidency ended up narrowly defeated less than a year after he declared himself a candidate for president.

After leaving office, Fowler returned to his legal practice before health issues began to plague him last year. His son, Jack, was elected to Congress in 2008, and unsuccessfully sought both one of New Jersey's Senate seats and his father's former position as governor.

Winners and Losers of the Final GOP debate

Sunday, January 16th, 2022

The six remaining Republican candidates for president took to the debate stage in Manchester, New Hamphire earlier tonight, just days before the New Hampshire primary.

It was the final opportunity for the whole field to debate each other before a national audience, and it quickly proved to be the most raucous debate yet. Senator Jack Irving (IL) has a solid lead in New Hampshire, and it seemed like most other candidates were already looking at the next stops on the primary calendar, Nevada and South Carolina.

Below are the NBS Election 2022 team's choices for the winners and losers of tonight's debate


Jack Irving
: Irving is leading the polling in New Hampshire by ten percentage-points and seems to have felt this was his chance to turn his victory into a route. He was aggressive (perhaps too aggressive?) in going after his main rivals, especially Alan Duke. He clearly touched sore spots when he told Duke that he would "not take advice from a man who blew a 40% lead in six months", referencing Duke's shocking loss to Democrat Bradley Denning in 2014 and when he asked Ruth Norton-Stewart what had happened to the commanding lead in the polls his colleague had enjoyed in early 2021.

Robert Royce: Royce was the only candidate who seemed to interrupt solely to try and help the moderators wrangle the candidates into line. He may not have been effective, but his exasperated "for God's sake, let her talk" during a segment when moderator Norah O'Donnell was trying to change subjects seems to be the most-trending clip on social media as of this writing.

Jack Hunter: The vice president didn't appear in person, but via pre-recorded message ahead of the first question. He struck the right tone of statesman-like and self-effacing. "I wish every one of you good luck in tonight's debate...But not too much luck, I just bought the 'hunter2026.com' domain name." was a good closer that was sadly squandered by a fractious debate.

Seaborn campaign: It doesn't take a political mastermind to see the value for Democrats in the last Republican debate turning into what one insider that spoke to NBS on condition of anonymity has already called a "squabbling mess." Expect to see interest group ads, and maybe some by the Seaborn campaign itself, using clips from the debates in the near future.

Gus Edwards: Edwards didn't do a whole lot to distinguish himself in the debate, but he is polling surprisingly well (around 10%) among GOP voters here and didn't make any mistakes. It will be interesting to see if he can continue to get this level of support outside of the "Live Free or Die" state, especially given his low profile and decidedly meager fundraising compared to the rest of the field.


CBS' debate hosts
: Co-hosts Norah O'Donnell and Gayle King were unprepared for the chaos of tonight's debate and their inability to rein in candidates interrupting each other or going over their allotted time added to some candidates' frustration (see above). The addition of a second moderator is a good idea when it's a debate between six candidates, but O'Donnell and King weren't coordinating well and it seems like CBS was not able to negotiate measures like cutting microphones for candidates that went on too long or tried to interrupt with the campaigns.

Alan Duke: You could almost see steam coming from Duke's ears by the time he walked off the stage. He clearly wasn't expecting Jack Irving's relentless attacks and it knocked him off his game, fumbling a few answers and causing him to snap at Irving in a way that didn't seem "presidential." It will be interesting to see if his support dips at all as a result—especially outside of New Hampshire, where it's looking like he'll finish a distant third (or fourth).

Ruth Norton-Stewart: If there was one candidate who suffered for the poor moderation, it was Norton-Stewart. The Ohio senator was the only candidate up there with a shot of winning Tuesday's primary who seemed to want to talk about the issues rather than attack her colleagues, but she quickly got lost in the crossfire and failed to make much of an impact.

Charlie Forrester: The junior senator from Georgia has been having a rough go of it lately. His sole mention by late-night talk shows was for accidentally spilling a bar patron's mug on Thursday during one of his trademarked press conferences at bars or clubs. Tonight didn't get much better, with his strategy appearing to change midway to joining in the scrap, but in a way that seemed half-hearted and pleased no one.

Republican unity: Threats of third-party candidacies from the center-right and far right prompted moderators to ask the candidates if they would pledge to support the party's eventual nominee, regardless of who it ended up being. Only half the field (Forrester, Norton-Stewart and Royce) agreed. The two major candidates who didn't, Duke and Irving, both put preconditions on who they would accept: Irving would limit his support to a Republican "who would seek to further unite, not further divide us", while Duke said he would support any nominee "chosen freely without the influence of backroom deals or coordination from the party elite."

Monday January 17th, 2022

Conservative MP arrested during dawn police raids

James Adcock, the Conservative MP for Carlisle was arrested early this morning at his home in the constituency. It was carried out by officers of the Cumbria Constabulary as well as officers from the National Crime Agency's "Economic Crime Command" and Revenue and Customs.

Adcock, 55, was first elected to parliament at the 2013 General Election and re-elected in 2018, has various business interests including a large property business covering the north-west and London. According to a police statement, the arrest is linked to "several ongoing investigations relating to tax fraud and bribery" and "claims of assault and threats of intimidation made by several tenants of "Adcock Property Ltd".

The Metropolitan police also raided two properties in London, both the BBC understands owed by Mr Adcock. A man and a women where arrested at these addresses.

The Conservative Party has yet to make statement regarding the arrest.