Sunday September 2nd 2018
With the Presidential election just over two months away, NBS Mark Bunn discusses the state of the race with John Edwards, the former Democratic Media Advisor to former Texas Governor John Hoynes.
Q: Who do think had the best convention?
A: By far it was the Democrats. While the GOP had far better tv ratings, that can easily be attributed to the average viewer tuning in to watch the drama of the contested convention unfold in primetime. Sam Seaborn was able to clearly define his message and the Democratic Platform. Polling done since the end of the conventions certainly reflects this as well, although Shallick has also got a boost since he was confirmed as the nominee.
Q: Will Thorn/Gault supporters turn out and vote for Seaborn/Shallick?
A: That has yet to be seen. While Henry Shallick went to great lengths during his acceptance speech to praise the Kansas Governor, it's not all that certain that Gault supporters will still turnout on November 6th. The fact that Governor Gault was able to talk Wesley Burke out of running an independent campaign will certainly be a boost to the Shallick Campaign. As for Thorn supporters, Senator Seaborn has done nothing in terms of moderating his positions to appeal to them, and it's unclear if he ever plans to do so.
Q: Hayden Straus actually gave a well received speech when getting the Green nomination a few weeks ago, can he have a real impact on the race like some are suggesting or will he just be a novelty as the first serious third party candidate in twenty years?
A: Hayden Straus' candidacy will almost certainly be a hindrance to Senator Seaborn. The Straus campaign might be able to peel away some disaffected Republicans (on some issues Straus and Gault are actually not that far apart), the overwhelming majority of Straus' support will come from liberal voters who view Sam Seaborn as too moderate. As we get closer and closer to November, Senator Seaborn will certainly start to see the squeeze. As for Senator Straus' chances by themselves, I find it highly unlikely that short of an faithless elector that he will have a real success other than costing Sam Seaborn the White House.
Do you think Straus has a case to be allowed into the debates, although he is unlikely to be polling above the 15% threshold to be included?
A: No. Senator Straus will not be the next President of the United States. I don't think that simply adding him to them for fairness-sake will do anything other than add a "disruption" to the proceedings. I know that the younger generations of progressives love these "disruptions", such as the riots we saw a Berkley last year. These type of things have no place on the debate stage, so no, I do not think that anyone who polls below the 15% threshold should be included.
Q: What should we look at for in the debates?
A: When Henry Shallick won the GOP Nomination instead of Peter Gault, Senator Seaborn's chances of winning the debates went way up, perhaps at the cost of the tv ratings for them. I have no doubt that records would have been smashed had Gault v. Seaborn been the case. Henry Shallick is an excellent debater in his own right, but he will have a very difficult time going up against the young and charismatic Seaborn. The Senator needs to make the most of these three debates, as this will be his best chance to put Shallick down for the
count.
Q: The VP debate will be the first since 2006 in which people will be generally interested, like then the Democrats have chosen a candidate with no elected political experience, but how low will the bar be set for Hollis when he faces off against Senator Hunter on October 7th?
A: More so than anyone else in this race, Franklin Hollis has absolute name recognition. Up until this year, he was the richest man in the world. However, it's very unclear how much of that will translate to the debate stage. Democrats will be eager to set the bar very low, as Jack Hunter is one of the Senate's most seasoned debaters. Given the uphill task facing Shallick, the GOP will be looking to Senator Hunter to absolutely dominate Mr. Hollis and gain back any ground lost in the main debates.
Q: What issues/policies, and the main line of attack on the other do you think both Seaborn & Shallick will push during the campaign?
A: For the Seaborn Campaign, we can largely expect a run-of-the-mill Liberal campaign. It remains to be seen what direction that the Senator will take on issues such as trade. Senator Thorn was fervently free-trade, and Seaborn adopting a more pro-Free Trade attitude would go a long way. From Shallick we can expect him to take a more unorthodox campaign. He is likely to adjust more towards Gault's position on issues like gay marriage and foreign aid. Seaborn's main line of attack will come against Shallick essentially being a third term of President Walken. We can see expect to hear this non-stop from the Seaborn camp. From the Shallick Camp there are several lines of attack they could use successfully. One is that Sam Seaborn is simply stuck in the past, living out whatever glory remains from the Bartlett-Santos years. There also the old GOP standby, denouncing Seaborn as too liberal, too extreme. Given the shoring up that Seaborn will have to do on his left flank, this line could be highly effective.
Q: What states should we be looking at, who will be focusing on what states?
A: Well, besides the typical battleground states of Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, several other states will be in play. The most recent polling suggest that Wisconsin, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia will also be in play as well. Both campaigns will be targeting the Midwest heavily, especially in Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio. in these three states especially expect the Straus campaign to leave an impact. Seaborn will have to fight to maintain his holdings here. Shallick will likely also be targeting Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Minnesota as well. Seaborn will also be focusing his attentions on New Mexico, as well as Colorado. He'll also heavily target New Hampshire in his never ending quest to preserve Jed Bartlett's legacy.
Q: Who do you think has the best route to 270 EVs?
A: Shallick, no two ways about it.
Q: What states do you think might surprise us?
A: Oregon, for starters. While it has voted Democratic in the Presidential elections the past twenty years, it has been trending towards the GOP. Walter Collins currently enjoys the highest gubernatorial approval ratings in the country and look for him to be a key surrogate for the Shallick Campaign there. It also has a popular GOP Senator in Curtis Ryan who could be a Presidential contender in 2022 if Seaborn wins. Another state that might be a surprise in New Hampshire. Despite the fantasies of Josh Lyman, New Hampshire is not the "Bartlett-loving, Liberal-Progressive Utopia" that he and the other Bartlettistas want it to be. The Democrats have barely held onto the state over the past few cycles and 2018 may prove to be the tipping point.
Q: Finally, who is going to win?
A: Given that Hayden Straus is most certainly going to peel away voters from the left, I would have to say that Henry Shallick will win. Whether or not he reaches 50% of the popular vote is anyone's guess, but, right now, Henry Shallick is the next President of the United States.
