2018 Presidential Election

[Marky Bunny]

7:30 PM:
STATE CLOSINGS:
North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia

We can call our third Republican gain in the House:

• WV-02: Jason McCloud wins open seat

We have a first Democratic gain in the House:

• NC-06: Beverly Carr wins open seat

House Standings: 58 R, 27 D, 20 TCTC [330 still voting]

In the Senate we can call the following races:

• NORTH CAROLINA: Republican HOLD: Senator Kenny Sattler defeats Mayor of Cary Harrison Lee
• WEST VIRGINIA: Republican GAIN: Congressman Mac Walters defeats Senator Rachel Mears

In the Gubernatorial races we can make a first call of the night:

• WEST VIRGINIA: Republican GAIN: State House Speaker Jim McDowell defeats Governor Chuck Black

We are early into the night but like the top of the hour we have some interesting results. The North Carolina Senate race is no surprise, but in the House NC 6 sees the first projected Democratic gain from an open seat which was viewed as safe-Dem due to court-ordered redrawing of boundary lines in November 2019. In West Virginia the Republican gains in the House and the Senate means it will be the first time there will be no Democrat representing that state in Congress since 1923. The win for Congressman Walters is the third Senate gain of the night. Also, a good night on the gubernatorial side with a gain in West Virginia, Chuck Black who upset former Governor and 2006 Vice-Presidential nominee Ray Sullivan four years ago has lost his bid for re-election. Although it does look like that Black has performed better than Senator Mears, but both have lost. We predict that Senator Mears will lose by around 14%, with Black losing on the gubernatorial side by around half of that on 7%.

 

[Marky Bunny]

8 PM:
POLL CLOSURES
Alabama, Arkansas (part closure), Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (rest of state), Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee

Republicans gain two more seats in the House:

• AR-01: Karl Greer wins open seat; first time district will not be represented by a Democrat since 1893
• NC-13: Denny Irving defeats Julius Schreibman (eleven terms); Schreibman is chair of the Science, Space and Technology Committee.

We have a second Democratic gain of the night:

• NJ-09: Kevin Redman defeats Mike Sheare (five terms)

Standings: 142 R, 89 D, 39 TCTC [165 still voting]

In the Senate we can call the following races:

• ALABAMA: Republican HOLD: Senate Majority Leader Cody Riley defeats State Senator Jonathan Plummer
• DELAWARE: Democrat HOLD: Senator Clare McAuley defeats State Party Chair Howard Smith
• ILLINOIS: Democrat HOLD: Senator Mitch Bryce defeats Chairwomen of the State Board of Education Susan Symonds
• MAINE: TCTC
• MASSACHUSETTS: Democratic HOLD: Senate Minority Leader Jimmy Fitzsimmons defeats member of the Governor’s Council Bill Logan
• MISSISSIPPI: Republican HOLD: Senator Dylan McNamara defeats Mayor of Meridian Jesse Hodge
• NEW JERSEY: Democratic HOLD: Senator Dante Jenkins defeats State Senator Mason Balcerak
• OKLAHOMA: Republican GAIN: Congressman Daryl Lukins defeats Senator Bradley denning
• RHODE ISLAND: Democratic HOLD: Senator Jim Velesquez defeats State Senator Daniel Morgan
• TENNESSEE: Republican HOLD: Senator Patrick Stacy defeats State Senator Jai Parry
• In the gubernatorial races we can call the following:
• DELAWARE: TCTC
• ILLINOIS: TCTC
• MAINE: TCTC
• MARYLAND: Republican HOLD: Governor Owen Wells defeats Congressman Albert Fife
• MISSOURI: Republican HOLD: Lt Governor Tim Moss defeats the Mayor of Kansas City Ashley Chamberlain
• OKLAHOMA: Republican GAIN: Former Lt Governor Katherine Williams defeats Governor Rob Kenny
• PENNSYLANIA: TCTC
• RHODE ISLAND: Democrat HOLD: Lt Governor Miles Leonard defeats Republican State Party Chair Martha Atkinson

It's looking good for the Republicans in the Senate and the attempt to get to 60 seats. Senator Bradley Denning who caused the major upset in the Senate in 2014 by defeating Alan Duke has been defeated by Congressman Daryl Lukins, this the fourth gain already. It's good a night in Oklahoma for the Republicans as former Lt Governor Katherine Williams will win her re-match with Governor Rob Kenny. All the other Senate races have been called as expected. The re-election win for Governor Owen Wells in Maryland is a big one. Wells a "Vinick Republican" could be looking at 2022 Presidential run, his margin looks to be over 11%. It should be remembered in 2018 at the Presidential election President Seaborn won the state by 26.39%. One of the interesting things to look at in the Rhode Island gubernatorial race is with the Green candidate Anderson Gerald looking likely to win over 10% of the vote.

 

[Marky Bunny]

8:30 PM:
POLL CLOSURES
Arkansas (full closure)

We can call the Arkansas gubernatorial race:

• ARKANSAS: Republican HOLD: Lt Governor Thomas Booth defeats Jack Griffith jnr, the son of the former Governor, Jack Griffith.

The Senate race as expected between Republican Congressman Tucker Johnson and incumbent Democratic Senator Hubert “Arkansas” Smith is too close to call.

 

[Marky Bunny]

8:47 PM:
We can make the following calls:

• GOP gain a sixth seat in the House:
  • VA-02: Frank Harrison defeats Marcus Donovan (five terms)
• Democrats gain a third seat:
  • FL-24: Paula Armitage defeats Raul Montero (twelve terms)

Paul Montero's political luck and skill had finally run out. First elected to Congress in 1996 during the final mid-term elections of Owen Lassister. FL-24 shifted to become incredibly Democratic (now it's D+34) that he was able to hold at bay until now because of local popularity and the Democrats running poor candidates against him. It was the most Democratic district held by a Republican

 

[Marky Bunny]

9 PM:
Poll closures:

Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

In the House we can confirm that:

GOP gain three more seats, including:

• IL-14: Joe Schweitzer defeats Mitch Davis (tenth term)

Democrats gain a fourth seat:

• NH-01: Nick Barlos wins open seat

Standings: 181 R, 136 D, 31 TCTC [87 still voting]

In the Senate we can make the following calls:

• COLORADO: TCTC
• KANSAS: Republican HOLD: Former Governor Peter Gault and 2018 Presidential candidate Peter Gault defeats State Secretary of Transportation Janet Farley in a blowout victory with around 74% of the vote.
• LOUISIANA: TCTC
• MINNESOTA: Democrat HOLD: Appointed Senator Peggy Jones defeats former State Senator Glen Addison by around 17%. The Green candidate Carl Flynn we project will get around 4% of the vote.
• NEBRASKA: Republican HOLD: Senator Emmitt George defeats State Congresswomen Sarah Wallthorpe.
• NEW MEXICO: Democrat HOLD: Senator Andy Ritter defeats Congressman Henry Riker who is defeated in his second state-wide race in as many years, having lost the gubernatorial race in 2018. Former Governor Rudi Vansen running as an independent has finished in third place with we project around 15% of the vote.
• SOUTH DAKOTA: Republican HOLD: Former Governor Tim Masters is the second former Governor elected to the Senate following Peter Gault as he defeats the Mayor of Spearfish Warren Kemp. He replaces the retiring Jim Simon.
• TEXAS: Republican HOLD: Senator Mark Cumberland defeats the Chancellor of the Texas A&M University Michael Gibson.
• WYOMING: Republican HOLD: Senator Kent Harris defeats Mayor of Laramie Pete Burgess.

On the gubernatorial side we can make the following calls:

• KANSAS: Republican HOLD: Lt Governor Michael Harding defeats Mayor of Topeka Jennifer Watson. He will replace Peter Gault who has been elected to the Senate.
• MINNESOTA: TCTC
• NEBRASKA: Republican HOLD: Incumbent Ben Lane defeats Member of State Legislature Matt Thornhill.
• NORTH DAKOTA: TCTC
• TEXAS: Republican HOLD: Incumbent Adam de Haan defeats former Lt Governor Ralph Gomez who lost in the three-way race in 2016. It is far easier win for de Haan this time with we project around an 8% margin. The Southern Rights candidate former police officer Jonathan Leeman is likely to get around 3% of the vote.
• WYOMING: Republican HOLD: Incumbent Simon Watts has defeated Democrat State Senate Minority Leader Kate Powell and the independent candidate the former Democratic Mayor of Cheyenne John Tomaricho who is running as an independent Populist. The popular vote % look likes being 60-23-17%.

 

[Marky Bunny]

9:30 PM:
NBS can now project for the House leaning towards the Republicans

We can also make two calls in the gubernatorial races:

• MAINE: Republican HOLD: Incumbent James Adamson defeats State AG Martin Nichol by around 4.5%. Adamson became Governor when Democrat Paris Stray became UN Ambassador in January 2019. Another strong performance for the Green candidate, this time Terri Hazel we project will poll over 4% of the vote.
• DELAWARE: Democrat HOLD: Incumbent Annelise Byers defeats State Senate Minority Leader Sam Mackenzie by a margin of around 6.5%. Like in Rhode Island and Maine the Greens have polled well again this time with around 5% of the vote for Ryan Cooper.

 

[Marky Bunny]

10 PM:
Poll closures:
Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah

The Current House Standings: 192 R, 139 D, 37 TCTC [67 still voting]

On the Senate side we can make the following calls:

• IDAHO: Republican HOLD: Senator Gina DiMeo defeats Mayor of Idaho City Paul Lovell
• IOWA: TCTC
• MONTANA: TCTC

On the gubernatorial side we can make the following calls:

• IDAHO: Republican HOLD: Incumbent David Arkin defeats State Congressman Chase Woods.
• UTAH: Republican HOLD: Incumbent John Elderton defeats State Senator Ann Burton. This time it’s a Libertarian candidate James Dreaden who does well picking up we project around 4% of the vote.

 

[Marky Bunny]

10:15 PM:

We can make the following two calls in the gubernatorial races:

• ILLINOIS: Democrat GAIN: Congressman Barry Robinson defeats Incumbent Republican Governor Teddy Hart. The margin we believe will be around 2.5%. Once again, a strong third party showing with Progressive candidate Patrick Henry poised to poll around 4% of the vote.
• NORTH DAOKOTA: Republican HOLD: Governor Sandra Middleton defeats former Senator Harry Conroy by around 8%, which is likely to be around 30,000 actual votes.

 

[Marky Bunny]

10:45 PM:

Republicans gain four more seats (13 gains for net of 8), including:

• VA-09: John Wark defeats Noah Gellman (thirteen terms); Gellman is the House Majority Leader and former head of the Blue Dog Caucus
• Democrats pick up fifth seat:
• KY-03: Wendy Nealling defeats Nicholas Townsend (fifth term)

So, Noah Gellman is defeated. This was a tough fight (VA-9 is an R+19 district) and that a lot of money was spent fighting to keep him there as the number two Democrat in the House, but it wasn't enough to overcome the national environment this year.

In the Senate we can now make the following calls:

• COLORADO: Democrat HOLD: Senator Ben Newell defeats Congressman Matthew Garner. The margin looks like being around 3%, and once again we have a strong Green performance from William Pearson with around 3% of the vote.
• NEW HAMPSHIRE: Republican GAIN: Businessman Felix Moore defeats Senator George Englemann. It’s close but with 98% of all precinct’s called, we can say that Moore will win by around 9,800 votes, a margin of around 1.3%. That is a fifth Republican gain in the Senate which leaves needing just three more gains to reach the magic 60 seats, assuming that they hold onto Florida, Iowa and Oregon. This is of course a re-match from 2014 I which Moore narrowly lost.

In the gubernatorial races we can make one more call:

• MINNESOTA: Democrat HOLD: Governor Jarrod Daniels defeats the President of the State Senate Kurt Scheiffer. The margin is going to be around 2.60%, around 68,500 votes. Here the Green vote for Timothy Peterson has fallen away from a peak of over 7% in the Summer to just under 4%, and that vote seems to have gone to Governor Daniels. Schieffer has easily outperformed Glen Addison in the Senate race by around 7.5%, but he just come up narrowly short of what would have been a major scalp for the Republicans.

 

[Marky Bunny]

11 PM:
POLLS CLOSING:
California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington

POLLS CLOSED IN EVERY STATE EXCEPT ALASKA

We can now at this hour make a major call:

• HOUSE PROJECTED FOR THE REPUBLICANS
• Standings: 217 R, 188 D, 29 TCTC [1 still voting]

On the Senate races we can make the following calls:

• CALIFORNIA SPECIAL: Democrat HOLD: Former Governor Gabe Tillman defeats State Senate Minority Leader Karen Donovan. This is the seat Tillman was appointed to when President Seaborn won the Presidency two years ago. It is a blow-out victory in a straight out two candidate race with no third-party candidate. Tillman wins by around a margin of 30%.
• OREGON: TCTC

On the gubernatorial side Washington is as expected TCTC.

 

[Marky Bunny]

12 PM:
Final state Alaska closes
We can call both state-wide races in Alaska. In the Senate:

• ALASKA: Republican HOLD: Senator Robert Cantina defeats the Former Mayor of Bethel, John Bell. The Alaskan Independence Party candidate Jim Haskins will poll over 10% of the vote.

In the gubernatorial race:

• ALASKA: Republican HOLD: Governor Cathy Gardener defeats Wes Tompkins who also lost in 2016. The Alaskan Independence Party candidate Grayson Heath has polled about 1% less than Haskins in the Senate race. Also, Tompkins has outperformed Bell by around 7%.

In the House we can now confirm that the Republicans will win 218+ seats.

• GOP pick-up three seats in CA, including:
  • CA-26: Jennifer Vinick defeats freshman Corrie Hightower
  • CA-45: Cynthia King defeats five term Congressman Alex Perrin

Standings: 222 R, 198 D, 15 TCTC

So, Arnold Vinick’s daughter Jennifer is elected to Congress. The Republicans had attempted to get to run for the Senate against Tillman, and in the light of his victory tonight it seems a sensible decision, we can project she has won 52.79% to 47.21%.

Elsewhere we are hearing that both state-wide races in Florida are very, very close. In the Senate race Republican Senator Tannar McClay is leading Max Moreno, but it's under 0.50%, in the Florida gubernatorial race, here Jessica Gelsey is ahead but it's again under 1%. It does seem though we could have a spilt vote in the state. The same goes for Maine, we have already called the gubernatorial race for Republican Governor James Adamson by around 4.50%, but the Senate race between Democrat incumbent Stephen Wilson and Republican challenger Ben Tpearing is too close to call.

The other races we haven't called yet are the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, the Arkansas Senate race, the Louisiana Senate race, the Montana and Oregon Senate race.
On the Senate side the Republicans have made five gains:

1. Kentucky from open Seat
2. New Hampshire
3. Oklahoma
4. South Carolina
5. West Virginia

In the gubernatorial races, the Republicans have gained two :

1. Oklahoma
2. West Virginia

The Democrats have gained one:

1. Illinois

 

[Marky Bunny]

This is the end of the "LIVE" coverage at this point.
I will be back during Wednesday. I will post the results from 1.AM onwards later on as "live". I will be back with a "real time live" broadcast around afternoon time here in the UK, so from mid-morning EST.
Good night everyone.
Mark

 

[Marky Bunny]

1AM:

We can make a call in the Iowa Senate race:

• IOWA: Republican HOLD: Senator Joe Joeckler defeats Former five term Senator beaten in 2016 in the other Senate Seat Rod Kasey. No third-party candidate is standing, we believe that Senator Joeckler will win by around 3.50%. This seat was one of the three seats that the Democrats had realistic hopes of gaining from the Republicans. The other two outstanding races are of course in Florida and Oregon which are still too close to call.

 

[Marky Bunny]

2AM:
We can make a call in the Washington gubernatorial race:

• WASHINGTON: Democrat HOLD: Incumbent Daniel Edmonds defeats former Governor Sean Boone former Chief of Staff Martin Kenyon. Governor Edmonds became Governor when Sean Boone left office to join the Seaborn administration in January 2019. No third-party candidate is standing, we believe that Edmonds will win by around 4% of the vote (52-48%).

In the House we can now make the following calls:

• AR-02: Jack Stanton holds on as the sole Democrat in Arkansas house delegation

The Republicans gains two more seats, including:

• NY-02: Jim McHenry defeats Carson Dellinger (fifth term)

 

[Marky Bunny]

3 AM:
In the House we can make the following calls:

Republican gain 16th seat (12 net), including:

• AZ-05: Brandon Morgan defeats Tom Reilly (fifth term)

Democrats gain two seats, including:

• CO-05: J.R. Schultz defeats Daniel Wellsley (seventh term) and independent Randy Foster. Wellsley is controversial GOP congressman who is a former KKK member and had been acquitted of hate crime and murder charges in the murder of four LGBT people outside a Colorado gay bar in the 1990s.

Final House race in New England is called (CT-02); it remains Democratic, so there will not be a Republican representing New England in the House of Representatives for the first time since the Republican party was formed in 1856.

 

[Marky Bunny]

3:45:
Here are final update and the outstanding races, in the Senate:

• ARKANSAS
• FLORIDA
• LOUISIANA
• MAINE
• MONTANA
• OREGON

The Republicans have made five gains in the Senate these are in Kentucky, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, South Carolina and West Virginia. To get to the magic sixty seats, the Republicans would need to carry at least three more states from the four states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Maine, and Montana. They would need to hold on and win both Florida and Oregon.

On the gubernatorial side, these are the outstanding races:

• FLORIDA
• PENNSYLANIA

On the gubernatorial side, the Republicans have made two gains Oklahoma and West Virginia, whilst the Democrats have gained Illinois. The two outstanding races in Florida and Pennsylvania are both with retiring Republican Governors, James Ritchie and Morgan Mitchell.

In the House this is the current situation:

• Standings: 225 R, 205 D, 5 TCTC
• TCTC races at sign-off:
  • KS-03: Open seat (R)
  • NY-11: Held by Eli Rosen (D) won special election in 2019 after Mark Richardson became Secretary of HUD.
  • PA-17: Held by Erin Gatwood (D), most conservative Democrat in House
  • WA-03: Held by Mark Ohanko (D), one of few Native Americans serving in the House
  • WI-08: Held by Nicole Henderson (D), wife of Senator Nate Bradshaw (D-WI)

 

[Marky Bunny]

4 AM:

And so our coverage on this dramatic night comes to an end. It's has not been a good night for the Democrats, although the feeling by political pundits and by many in the party is that the results are not as bad as they could have been.
Although the Republicans have won control of the House and so it looks like (barring someone in the Republican caucus standing against him in January when the House votes for the Speaker) Mitchell Harris, the current Minority Leader will be the next Speaker of the House.
Will be back later on the day with the focus espically on those six outstanding Senate races.
This has been the on-line coverage from NBS, Decision 2020.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Welcome back, and no further outstanding races have been called since we left you at 4 am this morning. It's 10.42 EST, and we are still no clearer on the outcome of our outstanding results.

We can confirm that both state-wide races in Florida in the Senate and the gubernatorial race have gone to a automatic recount because the margin is under 0.50% in both races. In the Senate race, Incumbent Republican Tannar McClay is ahead of Max Moreno by around 11,000 votes but in the other race it's Democrat Jessica Gelsey who leads Congressman Tom Riddle, by around 28,000 votes.

The White House has yet to comment about the results, although usually reliable sources say that President Seaborn "was disappointed to lose the House, but was happy in winning the Illionois Gubernatorial race, as well making 4 gains in the House".

 

[Marky Bunny]

13:25 PM
NBS is ready to make two calls in the Senate races:

• MAINE: Democrat HOLD: Incumbent Senator Stephen Wilson defeats State House Minority Leader Ben Tpearing. The margin is just 1.37% (8,667 votes)
• OREGON: Republican HOLD: Incumbent Senator Curtis Ryan defeats State House Speaker Kate Lindsay. The margin is 1.72% (34,447 votes)

To reach 60 seats, the Republicans now to have win all three states of Arkansas, Louisiana and the open seat in Montana. They also have to hold onto Florida which they narrowly lead going into a re-count.

 

[Marky Bunny]

17:35 PM
We are now ready to make a call in one of the Senate races:

• MONTANA: Democratic HOLD (from open seat): Former Governor Kurt Carner defeats former Congressman Scott Lynch. A margin of victory of 1.08% some 5,475 votes (50.54% to 49.46%)

This means that Republicans will not to be reach the magic figure 60 seats in the Senate which would have given them a filibuster-proof supermajority, but with only two Democratic held seats left where we cannot call a winner, Arkansas and Louisiana, it means the Republicans could only reach 59 seats if they did carry those 2 seats. The other Senate race is in Florida which is currently held by Republican Senator Tannar McClay so that race can only be held for them.