2018 Presidential Election

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Mid-Terms Election Night Coverage
A few of you have been asking regarding "live coverage" of the mid-term elections on Tuesday November 3rd, just two weeks from today. I am happy to announce that I am able to provide some coverage, although it will not be all night as the Presidential Election was in 2018.
The format will be that of NBS Election website coverage the same as 2018.
It will start at 6.PM (EST) which is 11.PM (UK) and will go through until around 11.PM (EST) which is 4.AM (UK).
The plan is for coverage to start again around 7.AM (EST) which is midday here in the UK.
With the help of @lord caedus I am putting together an election night timeline which I will be posting from during the night.
Kind regards
Mark
 
Just be careful Marky, more because of the pandemic in real life.
Thanks for the concern. I am in one of the safest areas in the UK, and have been since March 20th. I only go out a couple of times a week and observe all the rules when I do. I have not been in a pub for over seven months!!
 
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Thanks for the concern. I am in one of the safest areas in the UK, and have been since March 20th. I only go out a couple of times a week and observe all the rules when I do. I have not been in a pub for over seven months!!
Well still, great job and we’ll see what happens Nov. 3rd in real world and in universe.
 
Associate Justice 6 [3]
1938-1957: Stanley Forman Reed (appointed by F. Roosevelt)
1957-1962: Charles E. Whittaker (appointed by Eisenhower)
1962-1965: Arthur Goldberg (appointed by Kennedy)
1965-1968: Abe Fortas (appointed by L. Johnson) [4]
1968-1987: Arthur Goldberg (appointed by L. Johnson)
With regard to this Supreme Court timeline:
I don't know if a decision was made to omit him for some reason, but Harry Blackmun was established to have served on the court until 1994. He succeeded Abe Fortas in real life. In "Take This Sabbath Day", Sam has a conversation in which Blackmun's position on the death penalty is quoted, specifically about how he reversed his position in 1994. And in "Separation of Powers", Roy Ashland lists Blackmun among his favorite past justices. Of the real-life justices mentioned in the series, Blackmun may be the one mentioned with the most depth.
 
With regard to this Supreme Court timeline:
I don't know if a decision was made to omit him for some reason, but Harry Blackmun was established to have served on the court until 1994. He succeeded Abe Fortas in real life. In "Take This Sabbath Day", Sam has a conversation in which Blackmun's position on the death penalty is quoted, specifically about how he reversed his position in 1994. And in "Separation of Powers", Roy Ashland lists Blackmun among his favorite past justices. Of the real-life justices mentioned in the series, Blackmun may be the one mentioned with the most depth.

Huh. I guess Tim overlooked that when he made the list way back in the old thread. I'll edit the post to put Blackmun in for Goldberg's second term, since Brannigan's tenure was established pretty concretely (plus she is TTL's first female justice, so I imagine an earlier post-Carter Democratic POTUS and the historic nature of his potential replacement help ease Blackmun into retirement earlier than OTL).

Great catch.
 
Huh. I guess Tim overlooked that when he made the list way back in the old thread. I'll edit the post to put Blackmun in for Goldberg's second term, since Brannigan's tenure was established pretty concretely (plus she is TTL's first female justice, so I imagine an earlier post-Carter Democratic POTUS and the historic nature of his potential replacement help ease Blackmun into retirement earlier than OTL).

Great catch.

Bobby Zane said:
In ‘94 Justice Blackmun officially went on record...

Bobby Zane misspoke. He must be referring to a famous death penalty case in 1984, and Sam didn't feel like correcting him.
 
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Thursday October 22nd 2020

Election 2020: Candidate Focus
Article by NBS Political presenter Mark Bunn

Kevin Redman (Dem), New Jersey (9th Congressional District)


Kevin Redman, 41, is running for the Democrats in New Jersey's 9th Congressional District which at the Presidential level has voted Democratic at every Presidential election since the current district came into being after the 2000 census, President Seaborn carried it two years ago with 65% of the vote, even when President Walken won the state of the New Jersey in 2010, he lost in the district by 18%, although his state wide win also certainly did help the current Republican incumbent Congressman Mike Sheare win the open seat.

Redman is a computer engineer turned activist from Garfield, New Jersey, and is certainly a different type of candidate, more comfortable wearing a hoodie and jeans than a suit when campaigning. Speaking to me during a break from campaigning in his home town on Wednesday, he talked about his upbringing, his political experiences and the campaign so far.

Redman was brought up by his Grandparents, after his Mother and Father where killed in a car crash when he was only six in 1985. "I can't really remember much about it" he told me "I was an only child, my Father's parents had already died and so I was brought up by my grand-parents" admitting "I was a very insular child, I hardly went out and played with other kids, and by my teenage years, I managed to save up and get a computer, it was the start of the internet, I just loved computers, and yeah I was a bit of a nerd". Talking about politics "My Grandfather was a life long Republican, I can remember him putting up a Lassister sign in 1990 and 1994, but he never pushed his views on me, I have to say I always liked President Lassiter on a personal level, I think he was a decent man, although he had lots of nasty people in his administration, he wasn't one himself", which for a Liberal Democrat was a surprise to hear him admit but he says "The 1998 election was the first election in which I could vote, and I voted for Jim Buckner", although I voted for President in Bartlet in 2002 and every Democrat since although he supported Haydn Straus for the Democratic nomination in 2018, "I signed up as a campaign volunteer, and ended up on the social media side", although didn't support Straus when he became the Green Party nominee "He made a big mistake, in running I think, it was his ego, and he almost put Henry Shallick in the White House, anyway I didn't like his stance on some issues like NATO and the UN".

Turning to the current campaign he refuses to attack his Republican candidate Congressman Mike Sheare personally "I am not getting into all that "character matters" crap, I have met him on a couple of occasions, including the debate we had last week and he is a good man, I just happen to disagree with him on most issues, and think I could do a better job in standing up for this district in Congress". On the election he said "Clearly we as a party are going to be up against this year, but I think President Seaborn is doing a great job, I think I can win this race". Current polls have Redman ahead by around 6% "I don't look at polls, I am just running the best campaign I can". He was boosted last weekend when both New Jersey Senators Dante Jenkins and Alex Crossley endorsed him and campaigned with him "They are good men" adding he was also surprised when former North Carolina Congressman William Garden turned up at a campaign event a couple of weeks ago "I was surprised, he just walked up to me and "hello, I am Will Garden" asking about what they talked about Redman said "he gave the campaign a personal cheque which was nice, and he just offered some advice, about when life gets hard on the campaign trail, that you should never give up or surrender, and keep fighting for what you believe in".

As we finish up, his wife Redman's Chief of Staff is his own wife, Katelyn is beside him, although the couple have no children, "It's just one of those things" and then we on the way again.
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Kevin Redman campaigning at a local community centre in Garfield, New Jersey
(photo by Justin Long)
 
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Based on a PM conversation with Prometheus_2300, I decided to make a list of the Russian presidents:

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Cast (all previously established)
Theodore Bikel as Yuri Glaskov
Rade Šerbedžija as Pyotr Chigorin
Jeroen Krabbé as Valery Davydov
Cate Blanchett as Natalya Romanova

  • All prime ministers between Gaidar and Ivanovich were taken from Prometheus' old infoboxes that he's shared with me. Every prime minister since took office in the thread: Voronov briefly replaced Ivanovich during Russia's 2015 political crisis before committing suicide, Romanova obviously became president and so was replaced by Bulgakov. I established Savvin as having replaced Bulgakov sometimes between 2016 and September 2018.

  • Glaskov is obviously a take on Boris Yeltsin, but his backstory is slightly different. He was a cosmonaut who participated in Soyuz 24, and stayed in the Soviet Air Force after hanging up his space spurs. He was originally established as the Soviet Defense Minister from 1985 to 1991, but I figured it would be slightly more realistic for him to have replaced a hardliner after the Mathias Rust incident that greatly damaged the image of the Soviet military. Like Yeltsin, his presidency is a low point for Russia as the country struggled with the transition to free-market capitalism and the role of the US in supporting his candidacy over Communist Gennadi Terekhov in the 1996 election has led to accusations that the vote was rigged.

    Glaskov resigned as a combination of health problems exacerbated by his alcoholism, plus incredibly low popularity ratings.

  • Chigorin took the broken mess that Glaskov had given him and dominated the next 15 years of Russian politics. Chigorin focused on rebuilding Russian prestige, stabilizing the economy, and repairing the environmental damage left over from the Soviet Union. He slowly gathered figures around him that formed the so-called "new troika": Nikolai Ivanovich parlayed the successful Helsinki summit with US President Josiah Bartlet into becoming Foreign Minister and Chigorin's right-hand man, while Valery Davydov was plucked from the Kremlin to eventually become prime minister and then president after Chigorin was term-limited. The three men eventually consolidated their supporters into the Russian Union party in 2008.

  • Davydov initially proved to be a plaint member of the troika and the three men ruled Russia in harmony until the very end of his term. Chigorin and Davydov swapped roles, and then in 2010, Chigorin became defense minister while Ivanovich became prime minister himself. The constitution was amended in 2008 to make presidential terms six years instead of four and took effect in 2012.

  • Things began to collapse as behind the scenes as Davydov and the other two had a falling-out and Davydov became increasingly paranoid. Documents leaked to the press that pointed to Davydov accepting bribes from foreign companies and rumors begun to circulate that he was gay while Russia's economy was hit hard by the global drop in oil prices. In response, Davydov proclaimed the allegations to be attempts by Chigorin and Ivanovich to overthrow him and ordered them arrested. Both men fled the country, and Davydov appointed military general Yury Voronov to replace Ivanovich as prime minister. This was incredibly unpopular, and indirectly caused the situation in Kazakhstan to deteriorate rapidly as Russia became unstable.

    Voronov committed suicide (supposedly) less than a month after becoming prime minister and Davydov named the popular Romanova (who had succeeded Ivanovich as foreign minister in 2010) as prime minister in a desperate bid to calm the waters. She was prime minister for only three days before Davydov announced his resignation, claiming he had intestinal cancer and needed to seek treatment. Romanova then took over as acting president and was elected to a term of her own in 2015.

  • Romanova's appointment calmed the waters both in Russia and Kazakhstan and was widely accepted within the Russian Union, ending the likelihood of another period of crisis. Her term has thus far been dominated by lingering issues related to both Kazakhstan and Ukraine, dealing with high-profile corruption (or at least appearing to), and finding ways to flex Russia's strength in a way that does not bring about a response like what occurred in Kazakhstan under Chigorin. Her term ends in 2021 and she's all but certain to run for re-election. Her control over the party is all but absolute, with Davydov quietly retired and Chigorin remaining in exile after making outlandish claims about Russia's military involvement around the world.

  • Couple of fun bits of trivia:
    • Romanova is the first female Russian leader since Catherine the Great (empress from 1762 to 1796).
    • Russia breaks the bald-hairy "rule" pretty hard ITTL when Chigorin (a hairy leader if there ever was one) succeeds the hairy Glaskov.
    • Not pictured are:
      • Dmitri Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union (replacing OTL Mikhail, obviously) and first ATL Russian leader. Like the OTL Gorbachev, he's still alive but pretty old now (he will turn 90 next year), so he doesn't make many public appearances.
      • Alexander Rutskoy was implied like his OTL counterpart to have declared himself acting president of Russia during the 1993 constitutional crisis since he was established as Glaskov's vice president from 1991 to 1993. Like OTL, the crisis obviously ended in the president's favor, and the position of vice president was abolished later that year.
 
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Friday, October 23rd, 2020

Seaborn signs business stimulus bill

President Sam Seaborn quietly signed the so-called "business stimulus" bill this afternoon after congressional negotiations over a larger stimulus bill have largely stopped with less than two weeks before the November midterms.

The bill sets aside $350 billion to be sent in direct payments to small businesses, and temporarily loosens the qualifications for loan forgiveness from federal Small Business Administration (SBA) loans to deal with the economic downturn. SBA Administrator Damon Matteo has said that the agency will be ready to begin authorizing the first payments as early as Monday.

Seaborn has reportedly grown frustrated at the intractability of stimulus negotiations between the Democratic House and White House on one side and Senate Republicans on the other. Urgent warnings for a show of action from both Secretary of the Treasury Meredith Payne and Federal Reserve Chairwoman Roberta Tyson spurred Congress to quickly pass a bill that contained some agreed-upon provisions from the so-called "big stimulus" bill to calm fears of a stock market crash.

Both the Dow Jones and NASDAQ responded positively, with the Dow jumping 200 points.

The president took time in his statement at the bill's signing ceremony to tell Congress that "regardless of the [midterm] results, I want to be sitting down with congressional leaders by lunch time on November 4th hammering out a fair, responsible stimulus program for the American people."
 
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Saturday, October 24th 2020

Opposition candidate wins Kazakh elections, Tuleev promises peaceful transition

Astana
— Prime minister Tomar Sarsenbayev of the center-left National Socialist Democratic Party (NSDP) has been declared the victor of Kazakhstan's presidential runoff election, having defeated Mazhilis member Marat Kusherbayev of the ruling Nurly Zhol party. Outgoing president Erik Tuleev, who was prevented for running for a third term by the country's constitution, congratulated Sarsenbayev and pledged a peaceful transfer of power.

Unofficial preliminary results have Sarsenbayev winning 52 percent of the vote to Kusherbayev's 48 percent, with elections authorities projecting fewer than one percent of all votes to have yet to be reported. Election monitors from the European Union and United Nations have unofficially described the runoff as "largely free and fair" but voiced concerns about the election infrastructure in rural areas and scattered reports of local party leaders paying citizens to vote.

President Seaborn and other world leaders congratulated President-elect Sarsenbayev on his victory, with the president reiterating the United States' commitment to a "free and democratic Kazakhstan."

Sarsenbayev will be inaugurated on January 10, 2021 at the expiration of Tuleev's second term. It is expected that his deputy Azamat Zhaksybekov will succeed him as NSDP leader in the Mazhilis and thus prime minister.
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OOC: Obligatory infobox:
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Cast
Hristo Shopov as Tomar Sarsenbayev (new casting)
Ilia Volok as Marat Kusherbayev (new casting)

The four small dots on the election map are the cities of (counter-clockwise): Astana, Almaty, Shymkent, and Baikonur which are their own administrative divisions.
 
OOC: Time for some non-people infoboxes and to try out a new way of writing notes. Thanks to @Prometheus_2300 for the WTC box.

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Taking the place of Katrina, TTL had two smaller hurricanes slam into New Orleans within a few weeks of each other. Jasper (obviously) hit first, followed by Katherine. Both were Category 4 while Katrina was a Category 5.

Since this is The West Wing, Matt Santos plans ahead for what is an obvious possibility (hurricane making landfall at or near a major city in the Gulf of Mexico) and didn't make a guy whose previous job had been "guy in charge of the International Arabian Horses Association" into the head of the FEMA. New Orleans voters also don't have the poor fortune to elect a future Federal Bureau of Prisons inmate as mayor before the city's darkest moment in decades. Callas, BTW, is now a congressman.
Haryana is an event briefly alluded to in "The Dover Test", and clearly takes the place of the Bhopal disaster despite being mentioned as occurring in 1986 instead of 1984.

To make a long story short, IRL a chemical plant in the city of Bhopal that produced chemicals made for pesticides, owned and operated by the US-based Union Carbide, accidentally released nearly 50 tons of the extremely toxic chemical methyl isocyanate (MIC) into the city when a tank containing it became over-pressurized. Thousands died from it, and half a million people were exposed. Many of the people injured were injured for life, and the long-term health effects on the city and survivors are horrifying. Union Carbide, blamed employee sabotage for the disaster (despite damning testimony and evidence of corporate underinvestment that caused malfunctioning equipment that led to the disaster being possible, and a lax safety/regulatory culture that ignored or downplayed other instances of workers being exposed or killed by exposure to the highly-toxic chemicals they were producing), but also paid almost a billion dollars from lawsuits over the disaster, and none of the people ultimately in charge were ever punished. Its Indian subsidiary had its name changed and the company itself was later bought by Dow Chemical. It's widely considered the worst industrial disaster in history.

Haryana is worse.

The show writers didn't seem to realize that Haryana is a state, not a city (we don't call Bhopal the "Madhya Pradesh disaster" or Three Mile Island the "Pennsylvania meltdown" for example). So I had to make it so that the company responsible (Cultico, a company Leo worked for at some point after the disaster) had an accident that happened in a plant in the city of Faridabad similar to what happened IOTL in Bhopal. But unlike OTL Bhopal, where one tank was over-pressurized, in TTL Haryana, it's two tanks of MIC that vent all of their contents into the surrounding area, meaning that when an eastern wind blows through, MIC is carried 35 miles (21 miles) east to the city of Gurgaon to fall on unsuspecting residents.

The only saving grace is that both Faridabad and Gurgaon combined only have slightly more people than Bhopal, but otherwise the story is still enraging ITTL. Cultico changes its name (as mentioned in the show) and does actually do a better job of cleaning up and dissembling their Faridabad plant than Union Carbide did at the Bhopal plant (Union Carbide literally left the Bhopal plant pretty much standing after the Indian government was done investigating the disaster. Here is the tank that leaked the MIC gas. They literally took it out of its cracked concrete casing, put it somewhere else on the plant grounds and left it there).

The photo is an OTL memorial statue in Bhopal for the victims of the tragedy, done by an ATL person.
As has been mentioned before, with no 9/11, the World Trade Center still stands ITTL.

Not much else to say about it. It's still mostly just offices and more notable for being in establishing shots of New York ITTL's films (similar to its role IOTL films made or set between 1970 and 9/11). I did edit Prometheus' infobox a bit to remove some purple links, but otherwise it's all him.
Operation Forsyth was a multi-national hostage rescue that took place in August 2016 in Qumar.

Basically, Bahji forces overtook the lightly-guarded UK embassy in Jabal Nafusah during the collapse of the central government, taking everyone inside and several other foreigners hostage. After executing a Chinese hostage, they demanded the surrender of forces loyal to the Sultan and for Sultan (now President) Manab bin Hessani to surrender himself to them, promising to execute the hostages if their demands were not met.

Unfortunately, they forgot that the one group that you don't mess with when you take embassy personnel hostage is the SAS. Also that it's an incredibly bad idea to try and take hostages in an active warzone with three world powers (and Canada!) actively working against you.

The resulting rescue is just "Operation Entebbe in Qumar". The US ferries soldiers in, the SAS and Chinese forces rescue the hostages while the Canadians took out the main command center and destroyed planes the Bahji had taken when they overran the airport.

The picture is OTL King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia. Chiswell is a new character, as are the Bahji commanders (al-Jaskani's name is a giveaway that he or his family hail from the Qumari city of Jasken).
The Education Finance Reform Act was probably the last major piece of legislation signed during the Walken administration. The main parts of the bill are that it divorced public school funding from property taxes, makes it easier to receive federal financial aid for students attending trade schools, and pumps even more federal funding into schools.

The mechanism for divorcing school funding from property taxes were never elaborated, but I imagine that its replacements are state-level education funds combining state (including revenue taken from property taxes that had previously gone to individual school districts) and federal funding together and that allocates money on a mostly per-student basis with other additional factors (more money for rural schools with higher transportation costs, more funding in communities with a higher percentage of the population in poverty, etc.).

The bill's convoluted history is because of contradictory information. Kershaw is/was the main driver of the legislation, so she introduced it in the Senate first while a sympathetic congressman copied it and introduced it to the House. The House ended up passing it first, and then the Senate, so normally it would be considered a House bill. But the adopted version is almost entirely the Senate one, so that's why she gets credited for introducing the bill.

The "Invest in Education Act of 1999" is the education bill Bartlet had signed in "Celestial Navigation" that ended up being ignored in the headlines thanks largely to the press secretary skills of one Joshua Lyman.
 
That education bill is a quite a big deal, or at least it would be in OTL. Was there no San Antonio Independent School District v. Rodriguez or was a case on the matter decided the other way?
 
That education bill is a quite a big deal, or at least it would be in OTL. Was there no San Antonio Independent School District v. Rodriguez or was a case on the matter decided the other way?

Rodriguez is decided differently because of the changed composition of the court*. The majority was forced to punt on the issue of whether there is a right to an education, instead saying that it is an Equal Protection Clause violation there to be an "unreasonable" per-pupil funding disparity within the same city. Which, obviously, does nothing for funding disparities in suburbs or rural schools, but the Court did affirm that state constitutions could require equal or "reasonably equal" funding of schools in their state.

So, a 3.6 R/h of a ruling.

*- For those wondering: it's a 5-4 decision in favor of finding there to be an Equal Protection Clause violation in San Antonio. The four OTL dissenters (White, Marshall, Brennan and Douglas) are joined by Joseph Crouch to make up the majority. Ironically, two of the more famous liberals on the Court (Harry Blackmun, like OTL, and Roy Ashland) side with Burger and Stewart. Ashland, FWIW, heard the case less than a year after being appointed by Nixon, so he's a quite a bit more moderate in ideology and temperament than the guy who would chew out Bartlet three decades years later for not being able to appoint a strident liberal to be his successor.
 
Great Wiki box for "Operation Forsyth". (My nod to the author Frederick Forsyth)
Just a bit of background as is rightly pointed out, it was based on the Entebbe raid but also a lesser known 2012 SAS/US Navy Seal raid in Afghanistan in which a British Aid worker and three other hostages where rescued after being taken hostage.
 
After reviewing the list of Supreme Court justices, it appears that the info box for Wells v. Sorkin (1986) needs to be edited, replacing Arthur Goldberg with Harry Blackmun.
 
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Thursday October 29th 2020

Bitter Florida Gubernatorial debate as Riddle & Gelsey clash

In what was probably the most bitter and confrontational debate of this election cycle, Republican Congressman Tom Riddle and State Representative Jessica Gelsey clashed in what will be their only debate before the election on Tuesday, earlier tonight in Tampa.

With all the polls showing the election a virtual dead heat between the two candidates who are fighting to replace the outgoing Republican Governor James Ritchie, both candidates who clearly don't like each other went at each other from the start. The debate was punctuated by frequent interruptions, mostly from Congressman Riddle leaving the two candidates talking over each other at times. Riddle attacked Gelsey's Mother, former Speaker of the House Carol Gelsey leading to her interrupting " Not sure you have noticed Congressman you are not running against my Mother, you are running against me" with Riddle hitting back "you are only the candidate because of your Mother, you have no record, just your Mother and your looks". Mrs Gelsey struck back "well it's for certain you are not running because of your looks".

That exchange set the tone for the rest of the debate, with Congressman Riddle warned several times by the moderator for keeping interrupting. Riddle praised the outgoing Governor, whilst Gelsey surprised many by saying "Not everything Governor Ritchie did as Governor was wrong, he was always willing to talk and work with us in the State Legislature, something Congressman Ridde has said he would not do".

The debate which followed the far more mild mannered Senate debate on Wednesday eveing, probably did little to change minds.
 
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