2018 Presidential Election

My only question for @lord caedus did Russia finish building an alternative spaceport? As a more independent Kazakhstan is not the best place to have Space Launches from.

OOC: I would imagine that the situation in Kazakhstan would have prompted Russia to build other spaceports more quickly than OTL, yes. That said, since Russia is still renting the Baikonur Cosmodrome until 2050 (the lease was signed a year before the war began ITTL), Baikonur is still the main spaceport and is where Russia launches all of its non-military space flights.
 
OOC: I would imagine that the situation in Kazakhstan would have prompted Russia to build other spaceports more quickly than OTL, yes. That said, since Russia is still renting the Baikonur Cosmodrome until 2050 (the lease was signed a year before the war began ITTL), Baikonur is still the main spaceport and is where Russia launches all of its non-military space flights.
OOC: A lease isn’t a treaty so Kazakhstan could pull out if they aren’t happy with Russia. But can’t see why they would do that. But they could threaten it.

I still never got why Russia would launch from a country they don’t trust.
 
Who are the potential 2022 Republican Presidential candidates at this time?
If you have seen a couple of posts over the past few weeks, former Nebraska Governor John Moore has been in Iowa and New Hampshire campaigning in the mid-terms as has former Oklahoma Senator Alan Duke. I think it's safe to say these two will be running.
Other candidates who could run are James Ritchie (the outgoing Governor of Florida), Ethan Butler (South Carolina Governor), Ruth Norton-Stewart (Ohio Senator), Emily Rudden (former Indiana Governor), Carlin Cassidy (Pennsylvania Senator), Ron Buchanan (Virginia Senator & former Governor), Michael Rojas (New Mexico Senator), Barbara Layton (North Carolina Senator), Andrew Long (Businessman from Texas, former Independent Candidate for Governor and Senator), Ben Laurion (Michigan Governor).
 
Some good candidates. Gault is running for the Senate, so he is obviously not running. Shallick is definitely not running? Clark definitely not running?
 
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Tuesday, August 19th, 2020

NBS Election HQ: House ratings update

While members of Congress are back home in their districts, meeting their constituents and working on their reelection campaigns, the NBS Election HQ has changed the status of several House races.

Eleven races' forecasts have been changed, but the overall pictures is very similar to what it was in August. Despite Republicans only leading the generic congressional ballot by around two percentage-points, they are still overwhelmingly favored to take the House thanks to Republican-friendly maps in several large states and Democratic voters being concentrated in urban areas. The party was able to overcome this disadvantage with a Republican president in office keeping Democratic voter turnout high, but seem unlikely to retain that enthusiasm with President Seaborn secure in the White House until 2023 (at least).

Please note that NBS Election HQ does not distinguish between the regular election in Oregon's 1st district and the concurrent special election to fill the seat for the remainder of the 116th Congress. Both major party candidates are running in the regular and special elections.

Nationwide popular vote
Republican: 45%
Democratic: 43%
undecided/other: 12%

Projected seat totals*
Republican: 217
Democratic: 189

Toss-up: 29

*-Includes both 'safe' and 'lean' seats

SEATS WITH CHANGED RATINGS
CA-09: LEAN DEM to SAFE DEM
CA-20: TOSSUP to LEAN DEM
CA-46: LEAN DEM
to SAFE DEM
CO-05: LEAN REP to TOSSUP
IA-01: LEAN DEM to SAFE DEM
KY-03: SAFE REP to LEAN REP
MT-AL: TOSSUP
to LEAN DEM
NC-01: LEAN DEM
to SAFE DEM
NM-03
: LEAN DEM
to SAFE DEM
SC-07
: LEAN REP
to SAFE REP
WA-10: LEAN DEM
to SAFE DEM


SAFE DEM
NJ-09 (Sheare)
NC-06 (open)


LEAN DEM
CA-20 (Howard)
CA-21 (Gorman)
CA-24 (Wade)
CA-36 (Lopez Estudillo)
CA-53 (open)
DE-AL (Mathis)
FL-09 (Baker)

FL-24 (Montero)
GA-02 (Hayward)
IL-17 (Kramer)
MD-06 (Phelps)
MN-03 (Granholm)
MN-08 (Samuels)
MT-AL (Price)

NH-01 (open)
NJ-05 (Perry)
NY-04 (Tuccinelli)
NY-18 (Powell)
OH-02 (Reese)

OR-01 (open*)
PA-08 (Cipriani)

TOSS-UP
AZ-02 (Reilly)
AZ-09 (Avila)
AR-02 (Stanton)
CA-10 (Pittman)
CA-31 (Portillo)
CA-45 (Perrin)
CO-03 (Sweet)

CO-05 (Wellsley)
CT-02 (Mazur)
FL-03 (Fearon)
FL-18 (Johnson)
FL-19 (Gelsey)
MN-07 (Grunder)
NJ-03 (Branson)
NY-02 (Dellinger)
NY-03 (Tucker)
NY-11 (Rosen)

NY-21 (Voight)
NY-24 (Rivers)
OH-01 (Ferris)
PA-01 (Nelson)
PA-17 (Gatwood)
SC-04 (Barclay)
TN-05 (Helton)

TX-23 (open)
VA-02 (Donovan)
VA-09 (Gellman)
WA-03 (Ohanko)
WI-08 (Henderson)


LEAN REP
CA-26 (Hightower)
FL-25 (Judge)
IL-14 (Davis)
KS-03 (open)
KY-03 (Townsend)
NM-02 (Oswald)

NY-17 (open)
NC-13 (Schreibman)

PA-07 (open)

SAFE REP

AR-01 (open)
MN-01 (open)
OH-10 (DiMarco)

SC-07 (Bamber)
TX-32 (open)
UT-01 (open*)
WV-02 (open)

*- Vacant
 
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Friday August 21st 2020

Durham rules out Presidential run in 2022

Republican Californian Congressman Will Durham who finished in third place for the Republican nomination in 2018, in which he carried six states during the primary campaign and won over 20% of the popular vote has today ruled out running again for the Presidential nomination in 2022.

Durham, was speaking to reporters during a campaign stop in Nevada City, for Kate Donovan, the State Minority Leader who is trying to unseat Senator and former Governor Gabe Tillman, in the special Senate election which was caused by Tillman replacing President Seaborn in the Senate following the Presidential election.
"My time has gone for the Presidency, I will continue to campaign for Republican candidates and help anyway I can, it's why I am here today to campaign for my friend Kate Donovan. Senator Tillman has done nothing as Senator, he has gone to DC just to pick up another pay check".

Durham's decision to rule out a second Presidential run, means it is almost certain all three major Republican contenders from 2018,Durham, Gault and Shallick will not be running in two years time. Shallick has ruled out a second run "You get one shot at the White House these days, I had mine" he said earlier this week whilst like Durham was campaigning in the mid-terms for Missouri Gubernatorial candidate, Lt Governor Tim Moss, whilst Peter Gault is expected to be elected to the Senate in Kansas to replace the retiring James Taglio, and has committed himself to being a Senator rather than launching a second Presidential run, which would be just months after a Senate campaign.
 
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Monday August 24th 2020

F
ormer New York Governor Rob Cole hints at Senate run in 2022

Former Republican Governor of New York, Rob Cole hinted yesterday that he is looking at a Senate run in 2022. Cole who lost in his re-election bid in 2018, said whilst on a campaign trip in North Dakota for Governor Sandra Middleton said "I might be campaigning again soon, I have my eyes set on a certain senate seat in two years time". That is of course the Senate seat in New York currently held by Tim Burrell who had defeated Republican Jay Cruger in 2016.

Cole a former teacher and State Senator came to national prominence back in 2012 when he almost unseated Senator Andrew Thorn losing by just 5%, before going onto win the Governors race in two years later before losing re-election in 2018 to Hakeem El-Amin, but despite that defeat Cole is still popular on the "Vinick" wing of the Republican party. It is also interesting to note that Cole seems to be ready to take on Burrell for the Senate seat rather than a re-match with El-Amin.

Cole made the remarks during an interview with NBS on a visit to the University of North Dakota in Grands Forks, after a visit with Governor Middleton who is in a closer than expected race with former Senator Harry Conroy. In a wide ranging interview Cole said on the question of President Seaborn "Some things he does I agree with, others I don't, I think the so-called progressives in his party are trying to drag him to the far left" whilst adding "the good Republicans in the administration are having a good influence on him".

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Former New York Governor Rob Cole at The University of North Dakota yesterday.
(Photo by Josh Duhamel-original thread casting from 2011)
 
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Wednesday, August 26th, 2020

Economic stimulus debate tops upcoming Senate agenda

Senate Majority Leader Cody Riley (R-AL) outlined what he described as the "most pressing issues" that the Senate will address when it returns to session on September 8th today while meeting reporters outside of his Washington office. The "top priority", he stressed, were plans to avoid a deep recession, while he also included hearings for Olivia Emmett Franklin's nomination to the Supreme Court and healthcare reform among the "next most pressing issues" facing the Senate when it returns.

Riley said that the Senate would continue "at warp speed" to find a stimulus package acceptable to both Republicans and Democrats to combat what he describes as the "Seaborn slump"—the economic downturn that begun this year after nearly ten years of recovery following the late 2000s recession. The president has proposed a large stimulus plan that would substantially increase investment in renewable energy sources, less carbon-intense methods of transportation such as electric cars and public transportation, and increase and extend unemployment benefits as economists forecast an increase in the unemployment numbers. The plan would rely on the repeal of several Walken-era tax cuts for businesses, while lowering tax rates for low-income earners.

Republicans have rejected the plan and instead have pushed for a repeal of business regulation as a way to stimulate the economy.

"This isn't the time to hamstring companies and job creators with more tax rates. Especially not to subsidize pie-in-the-sky 'green' ideas like national high speed rail," Senate Majority Whip Max Lobell III (R-GA) said Monday while a guest on the Fox Business News program Morning with Maria. "We should be letting them keep more of their hard-earned dollars right now, so they can invest in the economy and in their employees."

Both the White House and congressional leaders have remained in negotiations throughout Congress' summer recess, but little progress has been made. Sources familiar to the negotiations have privately said that agreements have been reached in several minor areas, but that both sides are wary of being seen as "caving" to the other party ahead of this year's midterms.
 
Anyone else remember this picture of media mogul Bill Tunney meeting with Saddam Hussein in the 90s? I still believe his buddy Bobby Bodine sent him to negotiate over the chemical weapons. Illegal? Sure, but that never stopped anyone in the Lassiter administration before.
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Just a little side bar, but today in the "real world" the Liberal Democrats here in the UK elected a new leader, and it was more or less the same result as our own Liberal democrat Leadership election last July.
Last year ours was:
Logan Ross 49,819 votes (65.60%) James McQueen 26,120 votes (34.40%) Total Votes cast: 75,939 Margin: 31.20%
The "real world" Lib Dem result was:
Ed Davey 42, 756 votes (63.5%) Layla Moran 24,564 votes (36.55) Total Votes cast: 67,320 Margin: 27%

So all in all, the total votes cast, %, and winning margin where basically the same. The total votes cast was only an 8,619 difference.
 
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