2018 Presidential Election

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Wednesday July 29th 2020

Senate Polls

Alabama

Riley (R) 63%
Plummer (D) 28%
Gibbons (SR) 4%
Alaska
Cantina (R) 55%
Bell (D) 30%
Haskins (AI) 8%
Arkansas
Smith (D) 46%
Johnson (R) 45%
Marshall (SR) 2%
Colorado
Newell (D) 48%
Garner (R) 45%
Pearson (G) 3%
Delaware
McAuley (D) 58%
Smith (R) 36%
Maguire (G) 3%
Florida
McClay (R) 47%
Moreno (D) 46%
Bruce (SR) 2%
Georgia
Lobell (R) 62%
Andrews (D) 31%
Sampson (SR) 2%
Idaho
Di Meo (R) 64%
Lovell (D) 32%
Illionois
Bryce (D) 51%
Symonds (R) 40%
Ellis (Lib) 4%
Iowa
Joeckler (R) 50%
Kasey (D) 47%
Kansas
Gault (R) 73%
Farley (D) 23%
Kentucky
Lincoln (R) 66%
Lucas (D) 30%
Louisiania
Bauer (R) 48%
Remick (D) 47%
Mitchell (SR) 3%
Maine
Wilson (D) 48%
Tpearing (R) 46%
Massachusetts
Fitzsimmons (D) 59%
Logan (R) 33%
Nitter (G) 4%
Minnesota
Jones (D) 43%
Addison (R) 38%
Flynn (G) 6%
Mississippi
McNamara (R) 61%
Hodge (D) 29%
Mortimer (SR) 3%
Montana
Carner (D) 47%
Lynch (R) 46%
Nebraska
George(R) 55%
Wallthorpe (D) 37%
Taylor (Lib) 4%
New Hampshire
Moore (R) 47%
Englemann (D) 45%
Allen (Lib) 5%
New Jersey
Jenkins (D) 53%
Balcerak (R) 40%
Dempsey (G) 3%
New Mexico
Ritter (D) 44%
Vansen (Indep) 29%
Riker (R) 23%
North Carolina
Sattler (R) 54%
Lee (D) 41%
Butterworth (SR) 2%
Oklahoma
Lukins (R) 52%
Denning (D) 45%
Oregon
Ryan (R) 46%
Lindsay (D) 44%
Kelly (Soc) 5%
Rhode Island
Velesquez (D) 62%
Morgan (R) 33%
South Carolina
Crooks (R) 52%
McCord (D) 39%
Michaels (SR) 3%
South Dakota
Masters (R) 70%
Kemp (D) 25%
Tennessee
Stacy (R) 60%
Parry (D) 33%
Rowlson (SR) 1%
Texas
Cumberland (R) 58%
Gibson (D) 35%
Milton (SR) 2%
Virginia
Thornton (D) 52%
McKissock (R) 40%
Rogers (SR) 2%
West Virginia
Walters (R) 52%
Mears (D) 40%
Jack (Prog) 5%
Wyoming
Harris (R) 70%
Burgess (D) 23%
Pluckett (Lib) 2%
Special Elections
California

Tillman (D) 64%
Donovan (R) 33%
Kentucky
Schraeder (R) 66%
Brody (D) 30%

Italics indicates Incumbent seeking re-election
 
In Virginia, McKissock is the former governor right? Also, who is Lee running against Sattler in NC? I'm interested in NC because its my state.
 
In Virginia, McKissock is the former governor right? Also, who is Lee running against Sattler in NC? I'm interested in NC because its my state.
Yep, Mckissock is the former Governor.
In NC it is Harrison Lee, Mayor of Cary and the beaten 2018 gub candidate.
 
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To those working it out, based on those polls, the Republicans would make six gains in the Senate:
  1. Kentucky-Calvin Bowles seat
  2. Louisiania
  3. New Hampshire
  4. Oklahoma
  5. South Carolina
  6. West Virginia
 
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Wednesday, July 29th, 2020

NBS Election HQ: House ratings update

There are fewer than 100 days left before 2020 midterm elections, and NBS Election HQ is now prepared to update the list of races that will determine the outcome of the House of Representatives in November.

In our initial forecast, we highlighted our rankings for 95 districts we thought would be worth watching. Now here are the races that have had their forecasts changed, courtesy of our Elections HQ.

Future House race installments will only include seats deemed "safe" for either party if it is projected that it will result in a pick-up for a new party in the next Congress (in other words, if a Republican-held seat is labelled "safe Democratic" or vice-versa).

Nationwide popular vote
Republican: 46%
Democratic: 42%
undecided/other: 12%

Projected seat totals*
Republican: 217
Democratic: 188

Toss-up: 30

*-Includes both 'safe' and 'lean' seats

SEATS WITH CHANGED RATINGS
AK-AL: LEAN DEM to SAFE DEM
AZ-01: LEAN REP to SAFE REP
CA-16
: LEAN REP to SAFE REP
CA-26: TOSSUP to LEAN REP
CA-31:
LEAN DEM to TOSSUP
CO-04: SAFE GOP
to LEAN REP
CO-06: LEAN DEM
to SAFE DEM
CT-04
: LEAN DEM
to SAFE DEM
FL-07: LEAN REP
to SAFE REP
FL-13:
LEAN DEM to SAFE DEM
IL-12
: LEAN DEM
to SAFE DEM
IL-14
: TOSSUP
to LEAN REP
IA-02: LEAN DEM
to SAFE DEM
ME-02
: LEAN DEM
to SAFE DEM
MN-01
: LEAN REP
to SAFE REP
MN-08: TOSSUP
to LEAN DEM
NM-02: TOSSUP
to LEAN REP
NV-03: LEAN REP
to SAFE REP
OH-10: LEAN REP
to SAFE REP
OR-01*: SAFE DEM
to LEAN DEM
OR-04: LEAN REP
to SAFE REP
PA-06
: LEAN REP
to SAFE REP
PA-07
: TOSSUP
to LEAN REP
TX-32: LEAN REP
to SAFE REP
VA-10
:
LEAN REP to SAFE REP
WA-06
: LEAN DEM to SAFE DEM
WA-08: LEAN REP
to SAFE REP
WI-06: LEAN REP to SAFE REP

*- Vacant

SAFE DEM
AK-AL (Woodside)
CO-06 (Hill)
CT-04 (Brantley)

CT-05 (Brennan)
FL-13 (Minnear)
IL-12 (Newhouse)
IA-02 (open)
ME-02 (Zelowsky)

NJ-09 (Sheare)
NC-06 (open)

WA-06 (Thompson-Cline)


LEAN DEM
CA-09 (Joseph)
CA-21 (Gorman)
CA-24 (Wade)
CA-36 (Lopez Estudillo)
CA-46 (open)

CA-53 (open)
DE-AL (Mathis)
FL-09 (Baker)

FL-24 (Montero)
GA-02 (Hayward)

IL-17 (Kramer)
IA-01 (Branson)
MD-06 (Phelps)

MN-03 (Granholm)
MN-08 (Samuels)

NH-01 (open)
NJ-05 (Perry)

NM-03 (Cabello)
NY-04 (Tuccinelli)
NY-18 (Powell)
NC-01 (Borden)
OH-02 (Reese)

OR-01 (open*)
PA-08 (Cipriani)
WA-10 (Vanier)

TOSS-UP
AZ-02 (Reilly)

AZ-09 (Avila)
AR-02 (Stanton)
CA-10 (Pittman)
CA-20 (Howard)
CA-31 (Portillo)
CA-45 (Perrin)
CO-03 (Sweet)
CT-02 (Mazur)
FL-03 (Fearon)
FL-18 (Johnson)
FL-19 (Gelsey)
MN-07 (Grunder)
MT-AL (Price)

NJ-03 (Branson)
NY-02 (Dellinger)

NY-03 (Tucker)
NY-11 (Rosen)
NY-21 (Voight)
NY-24 (Rivers)

OH-01 (Ferris)
PA-01 (Nelson)
PA-17 (Gatwood)

SC-04 (Barclay)
TN-05 (Helton)
TX-23 (open)
VA-02 (Donovan)

VA-09 (Gellman)
WA-03 (Ohanko)

WI-08 (Henderson)

LEAN REP
CA-26 (Hightower)
CO-04 (Wellsley)

FL-25 (Judge)
IL-14 (Davis)
KS-03 (open)
NM-02 (Oswald)
NY-17 (open)
NC-13 (Schreibman)

PA-07 (open)
SC-07 (Bamber)


SAFE REP
AR-01 (open)
AZ-01 (Collier)
CA-07 (Brass)
CA-16 (Durham)

CA-25 (Vazquez)
FL-07 (Weaver)
IL-06 (Cohen)
NV-03 (Acklan)

NJ-02 (Fitzpatrick)
MN-01 (open)
OH-10 (DiMarco)

OH-07 (Paccioretti)
OR-04 (Zucker)
OR-05 (Young)
PA-04 (Daniels)
PA-06 (Pitter)

TX-32 (open)
VA-10 (Cameron)
WA-08 (Leggitt)

WV-02 (open)
WI-06 (Heinsohn)
 
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Friday July 31st 2020

Senate polling puts Democrats on the defensive

The polling for the Senate released this week has left the Democrats in the Senate in a gloomy mood. State polls show the Democrats on course to lose six seats (Kentucky, Louisiana, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, South Carolina, West Virginia), with Arkansas, Colorado, Maine and Montana all at serious risk. One Democratic Senator whose seat is not up, told NBS "Those Senate polls are awful" adding "Fitzsimmons and Chairman Collins are to blame". The only ray of hope for the Democrats are the close races in Florida, Iowa, and Oregon where a Democrat is challenging the Republican incumbent. "We need to make at least one or two gains, even if we lose five, six or seven seats, to see off the worst effects of the likely Republican gains" the un-named Senator told NBS.
 
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Sunday, August 2nd, 2020

Longtime Congressman Ford Brimgardner dead at 85

Congressman Ford Brimgardner (R), who has represented Utah's 1st congressional district for 33 years, has died at the age of 85 at his Salt Lake City home. Brimgardner, popularly known as "the Walrus" on Capitol Hill for his distinctive mustache and large frame, had been on dialysis for the past week, a spokesman for his office said.

Born in Salt Lake City to a devout Mormon family, Brimgardner was a varsity football player who turned down a scholarship offer from the University of Utah to enlist in the Marine Corps. After serving for three years (1952 to 1955), he declined reenlistment to manage his father-in-law's ranch in northern Utah (which his wife would inherit after her father's death in 1971). Brimgardner became politically active in the late 1970s and was northern Utah's largest bundler for Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential campaign. In 1986, he was recruited to take on incumbent Democrat K. Gunn McKay, and won handily. McKay would challenge him again in 1988, but failed to retake his seat in Congress.

In office, Brimgardner was a steadfast Republican on most issues, but frequently voted alongside Democrats on issues related to research for fighting diabetes, a disease he also suffered from. His district, which is extremely conservative, elected him sixteen times, all by large margins. He declined to run for reelection in the fall, citing his age and health. His seat will remain vacant until his successor is sworn in with the new Congress in January.


Brimgardner in 2019 (photo by Wilford Brimley)
 
I was doing a little research and found out that the name "Ricky" which supposedly referred to the British Prime Minister, later turned into the thread's Ricky Meyer, is spelled as "Rikki" in the script of the episode as well as the Netflix subtitles. The name most probably refers to the Indian Prime Minister. Here is the full passage from the show:

1x12 'He Shall From Time to Time' said:
BARTLET
What does India want?

MARBURY
A computer industry, and for that, they require an infrastructure, and that
is what you
can give them.

LEO
Why?

MARBURY
It's the price you pay.

LEO
For avoiding a war halfway around the world?

MARBURY
For being rich, free and alive all at the same time, and for the criminally
negligent
behavior of your Congress in not checking the proliferation of nuclear
devices.

BARTLET
Your friend, the prime minister?

MARBURY
Rikki.

BARTLET
He's gonna go for this?

MARBURY
If it's handled properly.
Obviously this does not preclude the British Prime Minister from being named Ricky, but I just found it interesting that this long time piece of thread lore that led to the creation of an important character is seemingly based on a misunderstanding.
 
I was doing a little research and found out that the name "Ricky" which supposedly referred to the British Prime Minister, later turned into the thread's Ricky Meyer, is spelled as "Rikki" in the script of the episode as well as the Netflix subtitles. The name most probably refers to the Indian Prime Minister. Here is the full passage from the show:


Obviously this does not preclude the British Prime Minister from being named Ricky, but I just found it interesting that this long time piece of thread lore that led to the creation of an important character is seemingly based on a misunderstanding.
Yeah. Considering the conversation is about India, the UK isn't involved and the only reason Lord John is is because he's an India expert I do wonder why we assumed it was the British PM.

So. Thread wide retcon or a post making a joke out of the fact two PMs had the same name?
 
So. Thread wide retcon or a post making a joke out of the fact two PMs had the same name?
Ricky Meyer is established canon for our story, it doesn't matter where the name came from. Ricky Meyer who is in this universe a combination of John Smith & Tony Blair is important not only to the UK back story but also in the thread as he was a major part of the Middle-East peace process, helped run Jerusalem and then was killed during the Syrian attacks.
 
Just rewatched the pilot (because its that good) and I realised we haven't heard much from the likes of Al Caldwell or Mary Marsh recently (or even George Rhor).

Any news from the Christian Right during the Reign of Sam?
 
Just rewatched the pilot (because its that good) and I realised we haven't heard much from the likes of Al Caldwell or Mary Marsh recently (or even George Rhor).

Any news from the Christian Right during the Reign of Sam?
They opposed the LGBT bill last year, but low key. Marsh was ready to Gov Burke's independent run in 2018, but in the end he decided against.
 
Just rewatched the pilot (because its that good) and I realised we haven't heard much from the likes of Al Caldwell or Mary Marsh recently (or even George Rhor).

Any news from the Christian Right during the Reign of Sam?
George Rohr served as campaign manager for the Hodder-Stevens campaign in Mississippi in 2015. His attack on Tina Brooks (the lesbian daughter of Fisk Campaign manager Sheila Brooks) has largely been viewed as the tipping point of that race.
 
Any idea where I could find the political history of New Jersey in this alternate universe? POD, list of governors, that type of thing.
 
Any idea where I could find the political history of New Jersey in this alternate universe? POD, list of governors, that type of thing.
Governors
Kate Crossley (D) 1993-2001
Jonathan Fowler (R) 2001-2005
John Treyman (D) 2005-2009
Dan Pritchard (R) 2009-2013
Annie Long (D) 2013-2017*Declined to seek re-election*
Kelly Hoffman (D) 2017-
 
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