Special Feature: 2020 Gubertorial Forecast
While there are still almost 19 months left before the 2020 midterm elections, we look ahead to the twenty one Gubertorial races. It is likely that the midterms will give an automatic 2-4% boost to the GOP as the party out of power. It will almost certainly impact Democratic numbers as well, but in the negative.
Courtesy of the NBS politics team, here's what you need to know about the state of each gubertorial race this far out:
Alaska Cathy Gardener R
Gardener is up for re-election in 2020. She is reasonably popular but Alaska is moving more to the left in recent years, Haydn Straus did well in the state in the Presidential race last year polling almost 12% of the Vote, but bearing a major upheaval she will win a second term. A candidate each from the Green Party and the Alaskan Independence party are also likely to run.
Arkansas Carol-Anne Slater R
Slater Term limited in 2020. Slater’s Lt Governor Harry Ford is almost certain to be the Republican nominee. The Democrats have won here in the recent past Jack Griffth for example, but it seems unlikely that are likely to win again barring a major upset. Only State Senator Lucas Peters has shown any interest in running for the Democrats so far.
Delaware Annelise Byers D
Declan Molloy resigned on 12/21/18, Byers assumed office as Lt Governor she will be up for re-election in 2020. Byers could be in a serious trouble. Many Democrats resent her taking over from Molloy for allegations regarding to his term in the military. Molloy is currently fighting to clear his name, and many believe he could return to challenge Byers for the nomination next year. Molloy barely won in 2016 (a margin of just 131 votes out of just under 400,000 ballots cast). His opponent then, Former Senator Tom Landis is very popular in the state which trends Democrat (Seaborn won the State in November by almost 20%) and has only indicted he is almost certain to run again.
Florida James Ritchie R
Ritchie is term limited in 2020, after a special election in 2010. James Ritchie is looking at a 2022 Presidential run, the Ritchie Family has dominated the state for nearly twenty five years. The state is moving more to the left, (Fitzsimmons won it at the Presidential level in 2014, and although Shallick did flip it back it was only by 1%, and Congresswomen de Santos won in the Senate race). The Democrats see a real chance, with narrowly beaten 2014 Senate candidate Max Moreno who served as a Trade Rep at the State Department during the Bartlet Presidency the front-runner for the Democrats. No clear Republican candidate is yet to emerge but Ritchie’s Lt. Governor George Phillips is the obvious favourite.
Idaho David Arkin R
Arkin up for a 4th term in 2020, no term limits. If Arkin runs and wins as seems almost certain he would break state records of most terms served as Governor. Simon Hill the Democratic candidate in 2016 has indicted he wants to run again, but once he is likely to go back to large defeat (it was 33% in 2016).
Illinois Teddy Hart R
Hart up for re-election in 2020. Teddy Hart pulled off a great upset in 2016 winning in a state that now trends Democrat (Seaborn won the state at the Presidential level by 18%) by beating then Lt Governor Barry Jameson by just over 17,000 votes. The Democrats are trying to get former Governor James Leyland to run again after he decided not to seek re-election last time out. This is too close to call but it should favour the Democrats but Hart is a likable and pragmatic Republican with a broad appeal to Democrats and Independents.
Kansas Peter Gault R
Gault is term limited this time, and the result is almost certainly to be another Republican win. Gault’s Lt Governor Samuel Horagan is a Afro-American Republican, and even further to the right than Gualt who become more moderate when he run for the Presidential nomination. No Democrat stands a real chance, the Mayor of Leawood, Carol Barker is the likely Democratic candidate.
Maine James Adamson R
Paris Stray was term-limited in 2020, resigned on 01/29/19 to become UN Ambassador, Adamson a Republican succeeded her, as President of Maine Senate, as the state has no Lt Governor. He has done little to undo Stray’s major policies as Governor, but he is clearly his own man, telling Republican and Democrat members of the State Congress “I am Governor whether you like it or not”. He also put Paris Stray’s Governors Plane up for sale “Stray Force One” as it was nicknamed within days of taking office. The Democrats should in theory win this back, and the likely Democratic contender is Archie Thompson, the son of former Governor of Lionel Thompson, a businessman.
Maryland Owen Wells R
Owen Wells is up for re-election in 2020. Wells is a “Vinick Republican” and a popular moderate Republican Governor he swept aside Democratic incumbent Andrew Fitzpatrick in 2016 by just under 4% of the vote. The Democrats may not bother in challenging him and focus on other races. If they do bother then the race would be “lean Democrat”.
Minnesota Jarod Daniels D
Daniels up for a 3rd term in 2020 he has no term limits. Daniels is regarded as the upcoming star in the Party, he was on Seaborn’s short-list for Vice-President before making the awful choice of Hollis. With Hunter only going to serve as VP until the end of this term, Daniels could very likely be Seaborn’s running mate. He is likely to run next year for re-election, win and further enhance his chances of being on the Democratic ticket in 2022. As for the Republicans in the state they are still very much in shock after the state went Democrat in the Presidential race by just 810 votes, after Walken carried it twice and on top of that “Independent Republican” John Roscoe lost re-election to the Senate as well. Glen Addison, the rather shall we say “eccentric” State Senator who did push Daniels all the way for re-election in 2016 (Daniels only won by 28,000 votes 1.33%) could run again.
Missouri Lucas Foley R
Foley Term limited in 2020. Lucas Foley retires with one eye on a possible White House run in 2022, although it should be remember he almost lost re-elect in 2016, trailing in the polls until the finals few days of the campaign against Bobby Lorbacher the Former Senator and Ambassador to Portugal before winning by 6% in the end. Missouri has become more and more Republican helped by the high profile careers of President Walken and Henry Shallick. No Democrat is likely to win. Lt Governor Beth Smith is the clear Republican front-runner.
Nebraska Ben Lane R
Lane up for re-election in 2020. Lane the former Lt Governor to popular Governor John Moore who was term-limited in 2016, should cruise to re-election, although he is nothing as likable or charismatic as his predecessor. Again like Missouri another no-hoper for the Democrats.
North Dakota Sandra Middleton R
Jamie Mueller resigned on 01/02/19 to take up the Senate seat, Lt Governor Sandra Middleton succeeded him. Middleton was virtually unheard off in the state only 3% of North Dakotans could identify her picture when shown her picture just prior to taking office. Once again no-hoper for the Democrats.
Oklahoma Rob Kenny D
Rob Kenny up for re-election in 2020. This is an interesting race. Rob Kenny is certainly extremely vulnerable, but he also has very high approvals and would likely be a Republican if he lived on the coast. Considering they have the state legislature locked up as well, the Republicans are going to have to consider if it's worth going all out to knock off a Governor who aligns with them pretty well and the fact they have no clear and obvious candidate. Former Lt Governor Katherine Williams is pretty much toxic after her defeat to Kenny, and it could be the Republicans only field a token candidate in the circumstances.
Pennsylvania Morgan Mitchell R
Another term-limited Republican Governor. Mitchell is still popular in a state that still narrowly trends Democrat at the State level. He easily beat State AG Andy Baker, the nephew of former Vice-President Eric Baker in 2016. Malcolm Power the State Education Supervisor who polled over 41% in the Senate race last year against Carlin Cassidy is said that he will run for Governor. Lt Governor Thomas Chapman is the favourite for the Democrats. This race is likely to be very close if it is between Chapman and Power.
Rhode Island Leon Stansberry D
Leon Stansberry is term limited. The race in 2016 was way closer than many expected with Stansberry winning by just under 10,000 votes against Martha Atkinson the State Party Chairwomen of the Republican Party. Having performed so well she was indicted that she will run again, and that race could be an all-female affair against Stansberry’s Lt Governor Sandra Gregory.
Texas Adam de Haan R
Adam de Haan up for re-election in 2020. The question everyone is asking is Helen Santos going to run for the Democrats. She did way better than expected in the Senate race last year with 35% of the vote in a three way fight, which included Independent Andrew Long who ran for Governor in 2016. Long did worse last year than in the Governor’s race in 2016 (he was down by just under 12%). Texas is changing, de Haan is not exactly popular even with Republicans, he should win and probably will win, but Santos and Long if they both run will make it worth watching.
Utah John Elderton R
Elderton is up for a fourth term, and like Arkin in Idaho would be a record breaker. He has already made clear is happy in the job he is doing, and has no intention to seek the Presidency in 2022. No Democrat has yet shown any interest.
Washington Daniel Edmonds D
Republican Sean Boone could have run for a third term in 2020, but resigned on 01/26/19 to become Secretary of the Interior, Lt Governor Edmonds replaced him as Lt Governors are elected on separate tickets in this state. Might be considered in-play simply because of Edmonds not being elected and the voters having picked a Republican previously. Most likely, though, this is going to be a solid Democrat win since Boone seems to be the only Republican to be able to win state-wide. No Republican has come forward so far.
West Virginia Chuck Black D
This is another interesting race. Chuck Black come from no-where to beat former Governor and Vice-Presidential nominee Ray Sullivan in 2016. The former Mayor of Fairmont fought the campaign basically as a “Presidential Primary” on the doorsteps and hosting hundreds of town halls, which worked well against Sullivan who believed he was a shoo-in and won by 2.46% (17,574 votes). Black is relatively popular in the state but this was a state Henry Shallick carried by a staggering 32.49% of the vote in the Presidential race last year. Again no Republican has to make any interest known.
Wyoming Simon Watts R
Simon Watts is up for re-election having won in 2016 as Lt. Governor with almost 74% of the vote. Again this another Republican cert.
(With thanks to @lord caedus and @MountainDew17)
