Special Feature: 2020 Senate Forecast
While there are still almost 19 months left before the 2020 midterm elections, both parties are looking long and hard at the 34 Senate seats that will be up then. Republicans are looking to keep their slim majority, the only check they have on the federal level, while Democrats are angling to give President Seaborn a friendly Congress to pass his ambitious agenda.
Courtesy of the NBS politics team, here's what you need to know about the state of each Senate race this far out:
Alabama: Cody Riley (R) (2nd term) — Perhaps the safest seat for the GOP this next cycle. The young Senate Majority Leader has more to worry about in an (unlikely) primary challenger than a Democrat taking his seat.
Alaska: Robert Cantina (R) (3rd term) — Cantina's approval ratings have dipped owing to his opposition to ballot initiatives to legalize marijuana in the state and legislation and improving access to healthcare for indigenous people. With Alaska's strong libertarian streak and large indigenous community, this makes him the most vulnerable Alaska senator in years. But with midterms favoring the party out of power, he's still the favorite even if the Democrats can recruit a strong candidate to oppose him.
Arkansas: Hubert "Arkansas" Smith (D) (1st term) — Smith is the first in a series of red-state Democrats who are going to be fighting for their lives in 2020. But unlike most of the others, he's got a strong brand (having your nickname be the state you're representing will help with that) and the Arkansas Republican Party doesn't have a particularly deep bench of Senate-caliber candidates.
California (special): Gabe Tillman (D) (1st term) — President Seaborn won't have to worry about his old Senate seat going Republican any time soon. The only question will be if term-limited Governor Abbie Heilemann will try to challenge the man she appointed for the seat for the Democratic nomination or not.
Colorado: Ben Newell (D) (1st term) — Colorado is a swing state that has backed the winning president in every presidential election since 2002, and Newell is Colorado's brightest Democratic star. He's likely to face a strong challenger, but Newell is a fundraising powerhouse and has been cited as a possible running mate for Seaborn in 2022. He's the presumptive favorite given how much Seaborn won Colorado won by in 2018 even with Green candidate Haydn Straus taking seven percent of the vote from Seaborn's left.
Delaware: Clare McAuley (D) (1st term) — Delaware's longtime Republican representative W. Robert Robertson narrowly lost last November, completing the First State's shift to becoming completely Democratic on the federal level. It will probably be decades before McAuley faces a credible challenger.
Florida: Tanner McClay (R) (1st term) — McClay barely won election in 2014 and the defeat of his fellow Republican senator Seth Randall in 2018 has made this seat one of the top targets for the Democrats in 2020. McClay hasn't been a particularly effective or high-profile senator and whoever he faces, it is going to be a slugfest.
Georgia: Charlie Forrester (R) (2nd term) — Georgia turning (or re-turning) into a purple state has been a Democratic wish since the state became firmly Republican in the Bartlet years. Demographic changes won't be fast enough to make this wish a reality by 2020, and Forrester looks like he won't have much of an issue getting a third term.
Idaho: Gina DiMeo (R) (3rd term) — Idaho is one of the reddest states in the country, and DiMeo will, in all likelihood, hold this seat until she retires.
Illinois: Mitch Bryce (D) (2nd term) — Bryce reportedly nearly jumped ship to join the Cabinet, but will have to content himself with what is likely to be an easy re-election in 2020 after political concerns (mostly that Republican Governor Theodore Lincoln Hart would appoint a Republican in his place) scuttled that possibility.
Iowa: Joe Joeckler (R) (1st term) — Even though Iowa has become increasingly Republican since Josiah Bartlet won the state twice, the Democrats view this as one of their few possible pickups in what some say looks like a rough year. Joeckler defeated a weak opponent in Lorraine Lindsay in 2014 and has done little in the way of building a brand or reputation in the state. It wouldn't be surprising for the race to become very heated as summer 2020 turns into fall.
Kansas: James Taglio (R) (5th term) — The senior-most "junior" senator, Taglio won't have much to worry about if he decides to seek a sixth term.
Kentucky: Calvin Bowles (D) (4th term) — Bowles is the sole Democrat in Kentucky's congressional delegation, and Republicans are still kicking themselves over for not knocking him off in 2008, when he won reelection by less than two percent of the vote. With Kentucky even redder than it was in 2008 and Bowles getting up there in age, it's possible that he might not seek a fifth term. If that is the case, Democrats can kiss this seat goodbye.
Louisiana: Rick Remick (D) (1st term) — By all standard measures, Remick should stand no chance in 2020. But a combination of his populist image and stellar constituent service has made this race a strong possibility for a Democratic hold in 2020. Popular former governor Cole Quigley is almost certain to run for this seat, which could make this an incredibly tough contest for both parties.
Maine: Stephen Wilson (D) (4th term) — Wilson is the white whale for the National Republican Senate Committee. He's been a target in both 2008 and 2014 and walked to victory in both races. While the Republican Party's bench there isn't particularly deep, that Wilson will face a well-funded opponent should be taken as a given.
Massachusetts: Jimmy Fitzsimmons (D) (3rd term) — The Democratic leader in the Senate won't have to worry about his own reelection in 2020. Massachusetts hasn't voted for a Republican in a statewide race since former governor Tom Case won reelection in 2002 and there's no indication that trend will change in 2020.
Minnesota: Peggy Jones (D) (1st term) — Jones is the newest senator, having taken office when Jack Hunter resigned to become vice president. A relative unknown despite spending six years as lieutenant governor, Jones' biggest challenge will be introducing herself to voters and finding a way to connect with the electorate. With top candidates lining up to retake the governor's mansion in 2020 and the swing against the Republicans in 2018 in their former Twin Cities suburbs strongholds, Jones might have the wind at her back.
Mississippi: Dylan McNamara (R) (5th term) — McNamara has made noises about retiring, and reportedly doesn't see much of a future for himself with Riley (a spry 46 years of age) as party leader for the foreseeable future. Whether he runs or not, this seat is going to stay Republican.
Montana: Robert Starkey (D) (4th term) — Going by purely presidential results, Starkey shouldn't have had one term to represent Montana in Washington, much less four. But Big Sky Country has a habit of electing gun-toting liberals to represent them in both Helena and in Congress, as Starkey and at-large congressman Rick Price (D) can attest. With a huge war chest and high approval ratings, Starkey is well-equipped for the serious fight Republicans are going to give him in 2020.
Nebraska: Emmit George (R) (6th term) — Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee is a title many senators would love to have, and George aims to keep them wanting. He's been directing federal funds towards Nebraska to prevent primary challenges from ambitious up-and-comers in the Republican Party and will win a seventh term if he runs.
New Hampshire: George Englemann (D) (3rd term) — As far as purple-state opportunities for the Republicans go, none look brighter than New Hampshire. Englemann, an anemic fundraiser and someone who is more at home at town halls rather than huge campaign rallies, barely won reelection in 2014 and will require funds to survive that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee would much rather have available to keep their embattled red-state senators in office.
New Jersey: Dante Jenkins (D) (4th term) — Fun fact: besides president pro tempore Samuel Wilkinson (R-KS), who is third in line to become president, Jenkins is the only senator to have round-the-clock security owing to nearly being murdered by organized crime while he was a local prosecutor. Another fun fact: he's going to win re-election easily.
New Mexico: Andy Ritter (D) (4th term) — On paper, Ritter should be one of the most vulnerable purple-state Democrats as New Mexico went for Republicans in the last two presidential elections (albeit by less than 500 votes in 2018). However, Ritter has retained his strong links to New Mexico and benefits from former governor Rudi Vansen (I) saying he is open to running if he feels the Republicans pick an "un-electable" nominee.
North Carolina: Kenny Sattler (R) (1st term) — Sattler is the only Republican unaffected by the state's court-ordered redistricting of its congressional maps before the 2020 election and he also has little to fear from a Democratic party that (understandably) seems to be focusing more on the House side of things in the Tarheel State than his seat.
Oklahoma: Bradley Denning (D) (1st term) — The story of Denning turning a 70-point polling deficit against an incumbent senator in deep red Oklahoma into a 12-point electoral victory is one that political junkies will repeat for decades after Denning leaves the Senate. Which, sadly for him, might be next year. Oklahoma is extremely conservative (Henry Shallick received nearly two-thirds of all votes cast there), and it's only Denning's incredibly deep pockets and family name (his father is a popular former governor and his grandfather founded Denning Energy) that give him a serious shot at holding onto his seat. The Republicans are itching to take back a seat they consider theirs and Denning will need every scrap of money and goodwill he can get if he hopes to win re-election.
Oregon: Curtis Ryan (R) (1st term) — Would Ryan have won in 2014 if his opponent hadn't been Ricky Rafferty, a woman who had antagonized almost everyone within her own party and who less than a year after losing, joined the Socialist Party? Perhaps, perhaps not. Either way, he's probably the most endangered Republican incumbent heading into 2020, standing at the top of every Democrat's target list.
Rhode Island: Jim Velasquez (D) (1st term) — Velasquez won't have to compete much, if at all, to win re-election in deep blue Rhode Island.
South Carolina: Sam McCord (D) (1st term) — Sam McCord spent two years with his brother Tim in the Senate before Tim narrowly lost re-election by less than 400 votes in 2016. Now, the younger brother is similarly embattled and hasn't succumbed to his brother's presumption in the deep-seated attachment Palmetto State voters have for (some) local Democrats. Since 2016, McCord has been stockpiling an impressive campaign chest and has been working to separate himself from the national party on hot-button issues. Regardless, he still has an uphill fight to overcome South Carolina's trend towards electing Republicans at all levels of government.
South Dakota: Jim Simon (R) (2nd term) — Simon has had a long Senate career, having first been elected in 1990, then retiring in 2002, before coming out of retirement to defeat Democratic leader and future vice president Wendell Tripplehorn in 2008. But it's almost certain that he's hanging up his spurs. Simon is going to be 84 next year and while he hasn't formally announced whether he's going to run again or not, it is clear that the state Republican Party wants him to exit gracefully. Either way, whoever holds this seat after January 2021 is going to be a Republican given South Dakota's partisan lean.
Tennessee: Patrick Stacy (R) (4th term) — If there's any silver lining for Democrats that know that this seat will stay Republican in a year's time, it's that Stacy, who has shown plenty of willingness to trade votes and buck the party line when it suits him, will be the one to hold it (if he wants to).
Texas: Mark Cumberland (R) (2nd term) — The Democrats could try to persuade a heavyweight like former First Lady Helen Santos to take a shot at flipping this seat, but in a midterm with a Democratic president and several vulnerable Democrats in red states, it would be a waste of time and money. It wouldn't be surprising if Cumberland topped his 30-percent margin of victory that he racked up in 2014.
Virginia: Lou Thornton (D) (1st term) — Republicans have become enthused about flipping this seat by the narrow victory of former governor Rob Buchanan over incumbent Brandon Jeffries last November. But their optimism might be misplaced. Virginia shifted dramatically away from the Republican presidential ticket in 2018, voting for a Democrat for the first time since 1964, and Buchanan was by far the highest quality candidate the Virginia GOP had available. While this won't be a cakewalk for either party, Thornton is the slight favorite at this point.
West Virginia: Rachel Mears (D) (1st term) — Mears owed her election to an incredibly unpopular incumbent in former senator Charles Oakley and a Democratic presidential candidate that narrowly carried the state. Neither of those will be the case in 2020, with President Seaborn recording the lowest vote-share by any Democratic presidential candidate in West Virginia since George McClellan in 1864. While Mears has tried to differentiate herself from the president, it probably won't be enough in a state that is rapidly trending Republican for national votes.
Wyoming: Kent Harris (R) (3rd term) — Harris won over 80 percent of the vote in 2014 and both Henry Shallick and Wyoming's other senator, Herman Morton, won over 70 percent in their respective races. It will be newsworthy if Democrats can crack 35 percent statewide here.
