2015 UK General election - Exit poll accurate

[thevaliant]

So, what if at the 2015 UK General Election, just like at most of the previous general elections (Excepting 1992) the exit poll was spot on?

Despite Paddy Ashdown eating his hat, the fact was the exit poll at 10pm was wrong. It predicted another hung parliament, with the Conservatives 7 seats short (assuming they needed 323 – which in the end they needed 324 due to a Sinn Fein loss). Paddy ate his marzipan hat for naught.

Below are the main GB parties (and adding in the DUP) with the first figure representing the actual OTL result and the second the exit poll result.

Conservative 331 / 316

Labour 232 / 239

SNP 56 / 58

Liberal Democrat 8 / 10

UKIP 1 / 2

Green 1 / 2

Plaid 3 / 4

DUP 8 / N/A


With the exit poll being accurate, and assuming Norn Iron goes OTL, what does Cameron do? He needs 324 for a majority and is therefore 8 short. He can get those 8 by working with any party that has more than that, but in reality that is only either the DUP or the Liberal Democrats (who in this ATL have 10 seats – likely as not Alaister Carmichael is a loser to the SNP, but there are another three Lib Dems who hang on in England and Wales).

Additionally, the SNP have a near clean sweep of Scotland, with probably only Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale remaining Conservative.

What does Cameron do?

Minority government? Coalition with the Lib Dems (can this work?). Some sort of deal with the DUP?

And, most importantly, will there be a Brexit vote offered like OTL (Cameron said if he was PM it would happen, but there is always wriggle room with a minority/coalition government)?

Thoughts?

 

[shiftygiant]

IIRC, doing a deal with the DUP was on the table, yes. Coalition, no, but a supply/confidence yes.

EDIT: Also the EU Referendum that Cameron promised in 2013 and was in the Conservative Manifesto was fiercely opposed by Clegg, who considered it a sticking point in any negotiation for a Second Coalition. There's also the bad blood the two parties had thanks to the course the Coalition Goverment took, and animosity between the Leadership.

Also remember, of those 8 seats, Sinn Fein is among them and eliminates 5 (their predicted number) through abstentionism.

 

[JDGiant]

It's actually quite amazing how little attention was given to the fact that a hung parliament looked likely right up until the final few seats came in. I suppose it was due to the shock of the large Tory seat lead over Labour.

Probably a confidence/supply with the DUP. Another election likely before the end of 2017.

 

[Politibrit]

In addition to what has been discussed here so far, an interesting side effect would be what happens to the opposition parties as a result of some people being MPs in the new parliament who weren't in OTL.

Ed Balls would still be around. He would probably back his wife in the leadership election. There is no reason why Corbyn wont still win the ensuing leadership election aside from butterflies, considering that the threshold for nomination has been raised by one, and the survival of Chris Williamson in Derby North would give him one more vocal backer within the PLP (who would probably find his way into the shadow cabinet). But it would be interesting to see how Balls fares in a Corbyn led party, my guess he would go the backbenches, given that Cooper did so as well, where he could become a more recognizable leader of the more centrist forces in the PLP.

It could also have repercussions for the leadership of the minor parties. UKIP would have gained a seat, though it is not clear which one. They came closest to winning Thurrock, but Labour were ahead of them there too, so they might take it instead on a slightly better result than OTL. That would mean it would be Farage in Thanet South. The obvious change is that he wouldn't resign and unresign as in OTL, which might not spark the minor civil war that took place a few months later, which might mean that the likes of Suzanne Evans might remain part of the party and would be leader now. Then again, he would have to sit next to Carswell for five years, which would certainly make for an interesting spectacle. Alternatively, if Aker won Thurrock, he would be in a good position to challenge for the leadership and win it if he so wished.