2015 Migrant Crisis WI, add a zero, take a zero

Brian Boru

This is NOT posted to make a political statement by any means whatsoever it is merely a thought experiment. If this violates any rules feel free to take it down.

According to Wikipedia, between 2015 and 2017 during the Migrant Crisis, there were a total of 3.3 million first time asylum applicants across the entire EU28.

So for the sake of argument here are two different scenarios where we add a zero or take a zero from that number.

Scenario #1: 33 million people come seeking Asylum from 2015 to 2017.

Scenario #2: 330 Thousand people come in during the same time period.

The same ratio of people still comes into each nation so if in OTL Germany got 475,000 migrants in 2015 then in scenario #1 they now get 4,750,000 in 2015 and scenario #2 they get 47,000. The ratio of original nationality, age, and gender of migrants remain the same, just add or remove a zero to the final number.

What the likely political, social, and economic fallout for both scenarios?

P.S. If this somehow depopulates a nation the Migrants were coming from then it gets depopulated.
 

Madeleine Birchfield

Banned
Scenario #1: European society collapses; there is no way Europe is able to handle that many people streaming into their countries in such a short amount of time. It would be a humanitarian disaster, and if Europe collapses, due to how interconnected the rest of the world it, so will the economy of the rest of the world collapse as well.

Scenario #2: That wouldn't be much of a migrant crisis, so European politics would stay as it is roughly before 2014.
 

Joriz Castillo

Scenario #1: The welfare state across Europe would be stretched to its breaking point. More far-right governments would come to power in more countries than OTL. Expect a public backlash in the immediate future.

Scenario #2: Nothing much happens. Things stay the same but less chaotic.
 
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