continued
Tuesday, February 7, 2012 - SUPER-DUPER TUESDAY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS,
Mitt Romney v. Sarah Palin v. Scott Brown.
Blue = Romney, Red = Palin, Purple = Brown
Alabama: (primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
61.1 % / 31.4 % / 7.7 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 360,270 / 45
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 187,915 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 46,081 / 0
Alaska: (caucus)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
73.2 % / 21.8 % / 5.1 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 16,848 / 26
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 5,017 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 1,174 / 0
Arizona: (primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
46.5 % / 41.7 % / 11.0 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 279,637 / 50
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 250,771 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 66,151 / 0
Arkansas: (primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
59.5 % / 33.7 % / 4.8 % 313,247
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 186,382 / 31
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 105,564 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 15,036 / 0
California: (primary)
Mitt Romney / Sarah Palin / Scott Brown -
43.9 % / 37.2 % / 18.1 %
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 1,549,434 / 190
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 1,311,839 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 638,582 / 0
Colorado: (caucus)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
42.3 % / 33.0 % / 24.6 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 59,673 / 43
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 46,554 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 34,704 / 0
Connecticut: (primary)
Mitt Romney / Scott Brown / Sarah Palin -
38.5 % / 33.6 % / 27.1 %
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 77,998 / 27
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 68,071 / 0
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 54,902 / 0
Delaware: (primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
46.9 % / 44.5 % / 7.9 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 34,587 / 18
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 32,817 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 5,826 / 0
Georgia: (primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
56.9 % / 37.0 % / 5.3 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 1,079,850 / 72
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 702,187 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 100,584 / 0
Idaho: (primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
62.6 % / 33.5 % / 3.2 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 108,433 / 26
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 58,027 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 5,543 / 0
Illinois: (primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
45.2 % / 43.5 % / 10.4 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 536,413 / 57
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 516,238 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 123,422 / 0
Kansas: (caucus)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
64.2 % / 30.5 % / 5.1 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 24,799 / 36
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 11,782 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 1,970 / 0
Massachusetts: (primary)
Scott Brown / Mitt Romney / Sarah Palin -
43.2 % / 37.5 % / 18.8 %
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 295,362 / 40
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 256,391 / 0
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 128,537 / 0
Minnesota: (caucus)
Mitt Romney / Sarah Palin / Scott Brown -
49.2 % / 42.1 % / 6.9 %
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 98,888 / 41
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 84,617 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 13,868 / 0
Missouri: (primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
52.8 % / 44.0 % / 3.2 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 484,936 / 58
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 404,114 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 29,390 / 0
New Jersey: (primary)
Mitt Romney / Sarah Palin / Scott Brown -
44.6 % / 40.9 % / 13.6 %
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 363,057 / 52
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 332,938 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 110,708 / 0
New Mexico: (primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
48.3 % / 46.9 % / 3.7 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 78,919 / 29
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 76,632 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 6,046 / 0
New York: (primary)
Mitt Romney / Sarah Palin / Scott Brown -
53.0 % / 37.5 % / 9.1 %
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 534,309 / 97
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 378,816 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 91,817 / 0
North Dakota: (caucus)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
58.2 % / 37.7 % / 3.7 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 12,468 / 26
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 8,076 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 793 / 0
Oklahoma: (primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
68.5 % / 28.6 % / 2.4 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 324,368 / 38
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 135,430 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 11,365 / 0
Tennessee: (primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney / Scott Brown -
65.3 % / 30.2 % / 3.9 %
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 470,178 / 47
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 217,448 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 36,001 / 0
Utah: (primary)
Mitt Romney / Sarah Palin / Scott Brown -
59.0 % / 35.3 % / 4.8 %
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 189,438 / 47
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 113,342 / 0
Brown popular vote/delegates won: 15,412 / 0
States won to date:
Red = Palin, Green = Romney, Purple = Brown
Delegate Count to date (Total Delegates Available - 2,329; 1,186 for majority)
Sarah Palin - 691
Mitt Romney - 580
Scott Brown - 64
Tuesday, February 7, 2012 (continued) - SUPER-DUPER TUESDAY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS,
Barack Obama v. Mark Warner
Blue = Obama, Red = Warner
Alabama: (primary)
Mark Warner / Barack Obama -
50.5 % / 49.2 %
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 257,880 / 26
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 251,242 / 26
Alaska: (caucus)
Mark Warner / Barack Obama -
58.6 % / 40.2 %
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 4,883 / 8
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 3,349 / 5
Arizona: (primary)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
57.0 % / 41.8 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 234,834 / 34
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 172,211 / 22
Arkansas: (primary)
Mark Warner / Barack Obama -
60.0 % / 38.6 %
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 184,871 / 24
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 118,934 / 11
California: (primary)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
64.8 % / 32.7 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 2,754,043 / 250
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 1,389,772 / 120
Colorado: (caucus)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
69.2 % / 28.7 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 76,468 / 49
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 31,714 / 21
Connecticut: (primary)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
75.2 % / 23.7 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 209,931 / 38
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 66,162 / 10
Delaware: (primary)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
60.1 % / 39.2 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 51,289 / 10
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 33,453 / 5
Georgia: (primary)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
54.1 % / 45.7 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 547,701 / 49
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 462,660 / 38
Idaho: (caucus)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
58.5 % / 39.3 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 22,967 / 10
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 15,429 / 8
Illinois: (primary)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
75.7 % / 23.0 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 1,232,949 / 114
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 374,608 / 39
Kansas: (caucus)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
58.2 % / 40.4 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 18,445 / 20
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 12,804 / 12
Massachusetts: (primary)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
78.1 % / 20.3 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 706,432 / 78
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 183,618 / 15
Minnesota: (caucus)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
68.8 % / 30.3 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 133,136 / 49
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 58,634 / 23
Missouri: (primary)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
51.9 % / 47.8 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 387,725 / 37
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 357,096 / 35
New Jersey: (primary)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
62.4 % / 36.1 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 561,585 / 71
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 324,891 / 36
New Mexico: (primary)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
61.1 % / 37.4 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 82,962 / 17
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 50,782 / 9
New York: (primary)
Barack Obama / Mark Warner -
69.1 % / 30.0 %
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 956,441 / 159
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 415,242 / 73
North Dakota: (caucus)
Mark Warner / Barack Obama -
51.3 % / 47.6 %
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 8,619 / 7
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 7,998 / 6
Oklahoma: (primary)
Mark Warner / Barack Obama -
59.0 % / 40.4 %
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 228,163 / 24
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 156,234 / 14
Tennessee: (primary)
Mark Warner / Barack Obama -
54.4 % / 45.2 %
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 309,796 / 37
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 257,404 / 31
Utah: (primary)
Mark Warner / Barack Obama -
56.7 % / 39.6 %
Warner popular vote/delegates won: 67,103 / 14
Obama popular vote/delegates won: 46,866 / 9
States won to date:
Blue = Obama, Red = Warner
Delegate Count to Date: (Total delegates available: 4,291; 3,791 non-super delegates; 2,419 needed for majority)
Barack Obama: 1404; w/ super delegates - 1617
Mark Warner: 781 w/ superdeleages - 813
Wednesday, February 8, 2012 - - - SUPER TUESDAY SETTLES DEMOCRATIC RACE, RAISES THE STAKES IN GOP RACE. BROWN BOWS OUT, WARNER WON’T SAY.
Washington, D.C., 2.8.12 - In a dramatic marathon of voting yesterday, it appears as if Super Tuesday has sealed Obama’s chances at renomination, while confirming what had been approaching for weeks for the GOP: an epic show down between charismatic tea-party darling Sarah Palin, and savvy GOP businessman Mitt Romney.
President Obama, as was largely anticipated, delivered a near-knockout blow to the Warner campaign on Tuesday, winning 15 of the 22 total contests. Estimated delegate counts give Obama twice the number of delegates as Sen. Warner, and he received well over 60% of the popular vote for the night (Warner was held to well under 40% of the popular vote for the night). Mathematically speaking, it appears highly unlikely that Sen. Warner would be able to capture the nomination. However, Sen. Warner remained cryptic, and vague about his plans for the coming days, while speaking to supporters in Peach Tree City, Georgia:
“Folks tonight we showed the talking heads what a real insurgent campaign looks like! (applause) David Plouffe, the President’s campaign manager, as you all know, was caught on a hot mike on Meet the Press stating that I would be lucky to win a single contest tonight. Well folks, we’ve won six, and it looks like we could even win 7. I won’t be making any decisions about my plans tonight, and certainly not at the Presidents urging. I’ll be speaking with all of you very, very soon.“
Speaking to a crowd of supporters at a late night victory rally in Chicago (an estimated 29,000 were in attendance), Obama professed:
“We’ve just had a passionate debate within our party of direction, and ideals. I think the Democrats in America have spoken, and Sen. Warner, I thank you for a spirited race. But I must now implore you to do what is right, and to do what the Democrats have asked you to do tonight. Please do not stand in the way of victory in November! But back to what we have to do starting tonight, folks! I need you to channel the passion, the inspiration you feel from our victories tonight. [I need you fired up . . . Because there’s an election this November that’s going to say a lot about the future. Your furture, and the future of our country. Because 3 years ago, you defied the conventional wisdom in Washington. The message out there was “no you can’t! No you can’t overcome the cynicism of our politics. . . No you can’t make real progress on the challenges of our time.]* Well we’re showing them. Unemployment is coming down. We’re not there yet, but we’re getting there. Unemployment has come down for the 3rd straight month folks. We’re getting there. You’ve shown America tonight that there is still a lot more to be accomplished, but WE’RE accomplishing it! Together! Take this fire you’re feeling, and carry it with you all the way to November!” (raucous applause)
The Republican race was harder for pundits to call, even before super-Tuesday, and the results of last night reinforce that notion. Sarah Palin won an impressive 15 out of the 22 contests, with Mitt Romney winning 6, and Scott Brown with 1. In terms of the popular vote for the night, Palin had carried 45% to Romney’s 41 %, although votes are still coming in. And in terms of the delegate count, it looks like Palin has taken her largest lead of the race yet, leading by over 100 delegates. However, Palin was shut-out in many of the nation’s most populous states, including California and New York. Speaking to crowd of around 20,000 in Phoenix Arizona, the night of super-Tuesday, Palin declared victory: “Well, the polls have closed in 19 of the 22 states that voted tonight, and I feel comfortable saying:
WE WON! (raucous applause). You know whatcha’ gotta love about all of this? Do you remember a few months ago, after the early caucuses and primaries? Do you remember the blaring headlines from the New York Times and the Washington Post? ‘Palin’s finished,’ “Palin Campaign Implodes,” etc, etc. It’s almost funny now? (laughter and applause). But in all seriousness guys, you helped me win an amazing victory tonight. We won in places as different as Georgia and Illinois, Florida and Delaware, Idaho and New Mexico. But over the coming days, you’re going to hear yet another tired media narrative about how I can’t win in the states that I have to win in. Well, I won tonight, so that‘s one big hole in their argument that they‘re sure to never point out! (loud applause) The other big hole in their argument is that they are continuing to fail to acknowledge the level of voter dissatisfaction with the establishment's leadership. People are sick and tired of career politicians cozying up to Washington, while spending their money, and raising their taxes. But in the midst of all of that, they’d rather spend their time talking about who bought my last outfit. People have had enough, and tonight, the voters said that they want someone in the oval office who will not forget them. I will not forget you! America deserves better! (loud applause)“
Mitt Romney’s campaign, while putting on a victorious face in public, was privately concerned with mounting evidence that they had lost their grip on this race. Governor Romney performed well in the Super Tuesday contests, but his once “unstoppable” campaign machine, consisting of strong establishment backing and lots of cash, seemed to be falling short. In a foreshadowing of his upcoming campaign strategy, he spoke with supporters in Anaheim, California about the risk of a Palin nomination: “Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise - we did an incredible job here tonight, and we’re not done yet! (loud appluase). I want to congratulate Governor Palin on her victories tonight, and look forward to a continued debate with her. But let me be clear. There is only one of us in this race that can make a convincing case to the American public in November. The next President of this country is going to have to deliver more than one-liners, more than hyper-ideological driven red-meat. Those tactics work, and appropriately so, in a primary, but they do not pay any consideration to a long-term general election strategy. I’m a conservative. But I’m the ONLY conservative in this race that can win moderates, that can win Obama voters, that can win amongst conservatives. The voters of most of the nation's most populous American states, like California, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, etc, etc, have shown us what kind of Republican they think can defeat the President in 2012. That person is me. This is going to be a battle, but it’s one I can, and will, win! (loud appluase).
Scott Brown, meeting with supporters, indicated that he would be holding a press conference the following day at noon. He noted that he would be likely suspending his campaign, but would address this in more detail tomorrow . . .
*Obama speech: http://bluewavenews.com/blog/2010/09...eo-transcript/
February 8, 2012 - - - BROWN ANNOUNCES EXIT; PROMISES A SURPRISE
In the immediate aftermath of Super-Tuesday, it had become clear to the candidates and pundits that Sen. Brown had not obtained the results necessary to continue his dark horse campaign. In a speech with supporters on the night of the results, Brown informed them that he would be holding a press conference the following evening. Puzzling to observers, however, was the fact that several insiders within the Brown campaign were reporting that supporters and crowds were being asked to attend the 6:00pm news conference. Instantly, speculation had turned to Mitt Romney, whom many had long suspected Brown would endorse if put in the position to choose between a certain number of candidates. Suspicions were confirmed a few minutes into the conference:
“What I tried to instill in my campaign was the belief that yes, you can be a principled conservative who knows how to work with Washington to get things done. That’s what Ronald Reagan was. I feel that’s what I would have been as well. And now I must look to the remaining candidates for who I think can best carry-on that torch - the torch of conservative values, with the ability to attract those that don’t agree with you or your world philosophy. That is why I think there is very little doubt, and almost no question, that that person is Governor Mitt Romney. Today, Governor, I would like to proudly announce that I am endorsing you for the President of the United States! Please join us Governor. (Romney walks onto the stage).
“Thank you Senator Brown. I graciously accept, and would like to speak directly to your supporters in this campaign. Scott Brown and I are not the same person, but we’re cut from the same mold. We have similar backgrounds and life stories, and I respect his views, and happen to think he’s right on a large majority of them. I will carry his torch, our torch, to each and every primary state coming up. This election is about clear differences. There could not be a clearer difference between President Obama and myself or Gov. Palin. But the question you have to ask yourself is ‘who can win this November?’ Governor Palin will have a more difficult time than myself appealing to those independents and cross-over voters that you must win in order to win a presidential election . . . (Romney’s speech continues)
[Upcoming Primary Schedule,
2/14/12 - - - Washington, Nebraska, Louisianna, Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C.
2/21/12 - - - Wisconsin, Hawaii]
Wednesday, February 9, 2012 - - - Pundits reacted to Super-Tuesday, Scott Brown’s exit and endorsement, and Warner’s refusal to exit the race in the days following the contests. On the Republican side, the Palin campaign was hammering their argument that they have come from behind and now have the momentum. They also argued that only Palin, and not Mitt Romney, can inspire a large enough Republican turnout in 2012 to overtake Obama. Palin campaign surrogate Gov. Nikki Haley argued on NBC’s Today Show
“Look, people have been saying this since she emerged on the scene in 2008 - the woman attracts a crowd. And when you’re talking about an election, and when you’re talking about trying to enthuse base turnout to their 2004 levels or better, you can’t look me in the face and tell me that Mitt Romney is the man to do that. Sarah Palin is the one to do it, and she’s probably the only person in elected office or not in this country that could do that. The GOP is going to win in 2012 by appealing to independents, sure. Absolutely. But we’re going to win BIG by getting our base out. By getting every single possible Republican voter to the polls. Sarah can do that. She’s winning conservatives hands down. I deeply respect, and know personally, the good Governor from Massachusetts. I just happen to think he’s running on borrowed time."
Romney surrogate Governor Rick Syder (R-MI) argued that Romney was in a great position heading into the Potomac primaries.
“I think the case that the Palin campaign is making about a depressed base is overstated. Are you telling me that it was a depressed GOP base that gave us 8 senate seats in the midterms? Are you telling me that it was a depressed GOP base that gave us control of the House, and swept you and I into the Governor's mansion? The base is enthusiastic, and nothing about a Romney nomination would change that. The critical thing to be looking at is whether or not we can maintain our built-in advantage with independents. Sarah Palin, god-bless her, is a polarizing figure. She’s come a long way from the 2008 election, but she’s still got independent voters that are weary of her. We risk giving those voters to Obama, and we risk losing, with her at the helm.” Responded Haley:
"I don't think that's accurate. Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't think Gov. Romney is doing as well with Independents as you seem to think. Like I said, I consider Mitt Romney a friend, but we cannot afford to risk any of our base sitting at home in November." Polling from Yougov showed that amongst Republican adults, Palin was more well liked than Romney
(69 / 19 % favorability rating, compared to Romney’s 59 / 24 %). A new
Public Policy Polling poll on the 2012 GOP nomination showed a continuing close contest, but noticeable movement in Palin’s direction.
(PPP, 2/8-10; 1,200 likely Republican primary voters; +/-3.0)
Sarah Palin - 48 %
Mitt Romney - 42 %
Scot Brown - 4 %
Undecided/Someone else - 6 %
PPP, in light of the arguments being made by both the Palin and Romney campaigns, took a national poll of self-identified independent voters about their views on the 3 White House aspirants:
Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, very unfavorable, somewhat unfavorable, or no opinion of the following people: Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin? (asked of self-identified Independents).
Very Fav Somewhat Fav Unsure/No Opinion Somewhat Unfav Very Unfav
22 % 16 % 13 % 20 % 29 %
Favorable/Unfavorable
38 / 49
Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, very unfavorable, somewhat unfavorable, or no opinion of the following people: Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney? (asked of self-identified independents).
Very Fav Somewhat Fav Unsure/No Opinion Somewhat Unfav Very Unfav
14 % 25 % 18 % 22 % 21 %
Favorable/Unfavorable
39 / 43
The same poll organization showed a close race for either Republican candidate in November.
Potential 2012 match-ups (PPP, 2/8-10; 1,500 likely voters, national; +/-3%)
Mitt Romney v. Obama: 47 - 47 % Romney v. Warner: 49 - 39 %
Sarah Palin v. Obama: 46 - 49 % Palin v. Warner: 48 - 40 %
Wednesday, February 9, 2012 (cont.) - - - On the Democratic side, another wave of super delegates endorsed President Obama. Fifty-eight total endorsed the President (including Virginia’s Senior Senator, Jim Webb (D), with Warner receiving 6. Talking to Meet the Press, the President’s campaign manager made the case for Warner to leave the race, as he had done time and time before,
“I don’t know what other smoke signals the Senator needs to see. He was washed out on Super-Tuesday. He won less than 35% of the popular vote. He won less than half of the contests, and the contests that he won represent less than 15% of this country’s total population. What more would have to happen for him to take it on himself to leave this race? I’m starting to think that the answer is ‘nothing.’”
Host David Gregory replied,
“well, in light of David Saunders absence (Obama camp. manager), I’ll make their point. Warner is arguing that despite the lopsided results, they beat expectations…expectations set by you, on this very show, just a few days ago, on an unexpected hot mike. It sounds like you were saying that, quote, He‘ll (Warner) be lucky to win a single contest, end quote. You gotta admit, 7 states is considerably better than one. Does he not have any sort of mandate to continue in this race as a result?” Plouffe:
“No, David, because it is virtually mathematically impossible for him to win. This political game of who did slightly better than expected is tired, and truthfully meaningless. He is in a worse position than he was prior to Tuesday in terms of the delegate count, and he’s in a worse position than he was prior to Tuesday in terms of the popular vote. So no, despite what was picked up by me on the mic, he did not defeat expectations. He’s in a worse position, and I think we’re going to defeat him in the upcoming contests this Tuesday.”
Thursday, February 9, 2012 (cont.) - - - NON-ELECTION NEWS/UPDATE:
In non-election news, speculation continued in the media over who was being considered for the United States Supreme Court vacancy caused by Anthony Kennedy’s sudden death. When cornered by the media at a U.N. meeting at the headquarters in N.Y., Sec. of State Clinton was asked about whether she was being considered for the job:
“Well can’t you tell, I already have a job? (laughing) But no, I have not been told I am under consideration..” The reporter pressed:
“Would you be interested if considered?” Clinton turned around, and replied tersely:
“No.” Janet Napolitano, Sec. for the Dept of Homeland Security, was slightly less pointed when answering Diane Sawyer’s question on ABC World News:
“No I do not believe I’m under consideration Diane. But even if I were, I’m focused on accomplishing good things for the Department, so that’s where my attention is focused.” “But would you do it if asked?” said Diane.
“ . . . it’s very, very difficult to tell the leader of the free world no when he asks for your service somewhere.”
Just 5 days before the Potomac primaries, the President vetoed the Republican-passed effort to extend the Bush tax cuts for those making over $250,000. Polls from weeks earlier, at the time Congress voted to extend the cuts, showed that Americans disagreed with the cuts for the wealthy by over 50%. In other domestic news, the President noted in a press conference, a few days before Super-Tuesday, that he would consider signing a Republican backed $110 billion Small Businesses tax break that was working its way through Congress. The President’s approval ratings, while under 50%, had seen worse days:
Obama Job Approval Rating
Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, 2/9/2012 (all adults)
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 49%
Net: - 6
Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll (likely voters) 2/9/2012
Approve: 43% (strongly approve - 26 %)
Disapprove: 56% (strongly disapprove - 42%)
Net: -13
Polling also confirmed what pundits had speculated over in the few days following Super-Tuesday: Sen. Mark Warner had very little chance of overtaking the President, and was even potentially harming himself amongst voters in his own party. His support was in free-fall. When faced with these numbers on The O’Reilly factor, Warner responded:
“Look, I’m in this until Virginia votes. Period. I’ll make a decision immediately following.”
Who do you support in the Democratic primary for President in 2012? (Zogby, 2/7-10, 2000 likely Democratic primary voters, nationally; +/-2.0%)
Barack Obama - 63 % (+5)
Mark Warner - 29 % (-8)
Mark Warner Favorable/Unfavorable Rating (Rasmussen Reports, 2/8-10, 600 likely Democratic primary voters, +/-4.0)
Favorable: 54 % (- 3)
Unfavorable: 41 % (+ 7)
Unsure/No Opinion: 5 % (-4)
February 10, 2012 - - - Gov. McDonnell Endorses Mitt Romney; shakes up Virginia Primary.
Just 4 days before their primary, popular Gov. Bob McDonnell
(59 / 33 % job approval rating) endorses Gov. Mitt Romney for the presidency. Virginia was being heavily campaigned in by both the Romney and Palin camps as the most delegate-rich state holding a contest on Feb. 14th, and it was rumored that the Governor’s endorsement was highly sought. Previous polls in Virginia had shown Sarah Palin taking a lead with strong support from the state’s more conservative Republican base, on the heels of momentum built on Super-Duper Tuesday (SurveyUSA polled the race prior to McDonnell‘s endorsement, and
Palin led, 51 - 41 %). While she was thought to have a built-in advantage in the state, Romney was relying on Governor McDonnell’s strong influence amongst independent voters to inspire them to the polls on his behalf (Virginia has an open Republican Primary). On a general level, the state had received recognition for it’s notably purple trends in recent years, even voting for President Obama over Sen. John McCain in 2008. An internet interactive poll taken by Zogby the day following the endorsement caused some excitement in the Romney camp:
Who will you support in the upcoming Republican Presidential Primary: Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney? (Zogby Interactive, 2/11/12, 800 likely Republican Primary voters; +/-3.5)
Sarah Palin - 48 %
Mitt Romney - 45 %
Sunday, February 12, 2012 - - - In a show of strength, the Romney campaign announced that they had raised $5.1 million dollars on Friday through a 24-hour, email-based “money-bomb.” Feeling the need to blunt any potential impact or momentum in Romney’s favor due to high fundraising totals, Palin campaign manager, Meg Stapelton, announced today that the Palin campaign’s total haul since Super Tuesday is $18.4 million. Unofficial Obama campaign numbers point to $19 million having been raised since the start of the month.
Monday, February 13, 2012 - - - At a campaign stop on Monday morning in Hillsville, Virginia, Sarah Palin had a special guest:
“I’d like for everyone to welcome to the stage, the Governor from Mississippi, Haley Barbour!” (applause) Barbour spoke:
“Thank you Governor. Well, let me be blunt to kick this rally off: My name is Haley Barbour, and I’m proud to endorse Governor Palin for President of the United States!” (loud applause) (Barbour remarks continue) . . .
In
Zogby’s final Daily tracking poll in Virginia, the race appears to be a dead-heat, with Palin holding steady at
48 %, and with Romney gaining 3 points in the final day to match Palin at
48%. Political Scientist and Virginia native Larry Sabato spoke to Diane Sawyer on Monday night:
“Look, the latest tracking poll shows a dead heat, but more than that, it shows some movement in Romney’s direction. Zogby had Romney down by over 10 points just one week ago, and now they‘re tied back up. It’s hard not to think that Governor McDonnell’s endorsement hasn’t spurred on this late movement towards Romney. Virginia’s demographics are perfect for this to be a knock-down, drag-out affair. You have the southwestern Appalachian region, where Republicans tend to be more conservative, and where Palin will need to turn out high winning margins. Romney is expected to be stronger in the Northern part of the state, where the DC suburbanites reside. This is where the highest proportion of “moderate” Republicans live and Romney will be doing everything he can to drive them to the polls. And to top it all off, we have the Barbour endorsement with Palin down in Hillsville today. Hillsville is a small town, not more than 5,000 people, and crowd estimates were between 5-7,000. Today’s tracking poll wrapped up last night, so obviously, any Barbour bounce would not be measured. My call: the movement is in Romney’s favor, and he’s got the Republican machine of Bob McDonnell out there for him. Absent a massive turnout in Southwestern Va. coupled with huge winning margins for Palin, I think Romney takes this.”
When pressed on the Democratic race: “As a long-time observer of Virginia politics, and as someone that’s voted for Gov. and Sen. Warner, I must say his tactics of late have been baffling. His premise that he wants to stay in this race to hear from Virginia voters doesn’t make sense. So what if he wins? Does the fact that Virginia voters MIGHT want him to be the Democratic nominee give him the right to ignore the majority of other states who have disagreed up to this point? And if he is doing this due to hubris, or ego, or just to have a showdown with Obama in Virginia, I have to ask - is this the best way to shape your legacy? Warner is going to likely lose on Tuesday, and where will that leave him, but embarrassed and politically weakened? It just doesn’t make any sense.”
In a sign that the Obama campaign was prepared to play offense in Virginia (and perhaps out of a belief that the one-time popular home-town native could upset the President), Obama spent the day campaigning with Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) in Alexandria, Arlington, and Fredericksburg. A. Univ. of Virgina field poll showed a close race (
Warner - 46 % Obama - 44 %).
Tuesday, February 14, 2012 - - - HIGH TURNOUT BOOSTS PALIN IN ANOTHER DRAW; WARNER SUSPENDS CAMPAIGN , WON’T ENDORSE OBAMA . . . YET?
Charlottesville, Virginia, 2.15.12 - The Potomac/Multi-state Primaries last night seemed all but certain to prolong the GOP contest further, while finally handing the Democratic nomination to President Barack Obama. On the Republican side, high-turn out in SW Virginia led to a close Palin victory, despite polling showing a late surge for Romney. The two candidates split the evenings 6 contests down the middle, although the pundits are noting that Romney is underperforming against Palin in conservative states. The fmr VP nominee also expanded her lead in the delegate race. On the Democratic side, President Obama swept the evenings contests, even besting Sen. Warner in his home state of Virginia. Sen. Warner addressed his supporters late in the evening, announcing he would be suspending his campaign for the presidency immediately. As of this morning, he has not commented on if or when an endorsement could be expected.
Speaking to supporters in Alexandria, just 15 miles away from where the Romney campaign was addressing their supporters, President Obama struck an optimistic tone, and made a noteable play for Sen. Warner’s endorsement.
"Senator Mark Warner is a leader who inspires millions of Americans with his strength, his courage, and his commitment to the causes that brought us here tonight. [Our party and our country are better off because of h(im), and I am a better candidate for having had the honor to compete with h(im).]* Having said this, the reality is, we’ve just finished what was, at times, a contentious battle for the nomination. Give Mark time, and I’m certain he’ll come around. Because he knows that both mine and his ideas are better than anything coming out of Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney!” (loud applause)
Pundits discussed the state of the Democratic race. Said Rachel Maddow:
“Look, Obama’s had a recent spate of good news, and this just tops it all off. For all that was made by the media, for all that was blown out of proportion by Fox and the Wall Street Journal editorial boards, Warner just never ended up being the powerful insurgent candidate that he was being given credit for being earlier in the campaign. And now it looks like he’s withholding his endorsement, almost like he’s threatening Obama to give him something. I say, “who needs him!?” This guy won barely a handful of contests, and won less than 30% of the popular vote. Does his endorsement even matter?” Chris Matthews argued back:
“Oh c’mon Rachel! Of course his endorsement matters. Look, you have to consider WHERE Warner was winning. Because in a lot of those states, a lot of which were southern, heavy black population states, Warner pulled off upsets or came shockingly close to winning. That’s a lot of Democratic voters that either didn’t turn out, or changed their vote from Obama. He has to get them to the polls, or even harder, change their minds back to voting for him. I’m not saying that these voters will turn to Palin or Romney, but I am saying there's a great chance they will stay at home come November. So does Warner’s endorsement or lack thereof matter as much as Hillary Clinton’s did in 2008? Absolutely not. But to say it does not matter period, I have to disagree.”
2012 Democratic Potomac/Multi-state Primary Results
Blue = Obama, Red = Warner
2012 Virginia Democratic Primary (Open Primary)
Barack Obama - 52. 4 % (450,165 votes) (48 delegates)
Mark Warner - 46.4 % ( 398,620 votes) (35 delegates)
2012 District of Columbia Democratic Primary (Closed Primary)
Barack Obama - 87.3 % (79,790 votes) (15 delegates)
Mark Warner - 12.6 % (11,516 votes) (0 delegates)
2012 Maryland Democratic Primary (Closed Primary)
Barack Obama - 69.6 % (499,773 votes) (51 delegates)
Mark Warner - 28.5 % (204,649 votes) (19 delegates)
2012 Louisiana Democratic Primary (Closed Primary)
Barack Obama - 59.7 % (178,489 votes) (33 delegates)
Mark Warner - 39.6 % (118,394) (23 delegates)
2012 Nebraska Democratic Caucus and Primary (Open Caucus and Primary) (primary results displayed in italics)
Barack Obama - 62.8 % (15,928 votes) (10 delegates)
Mark Warner - 36.3 % (9,207 votes) (6 delegates)
Barack Obama - 57.0 % (43,921 votes) (9 delegates)
Mark Warner - 42.3 % (32,594 votes) (6 delegates)
*county-level map reflects caucus results only
2012 Washington Democratic Caucus and Primary (Open Caucus and Primary) (primary resuls displayed in italics)
Barack Obama - 78.5 % (19,750 votes) (69 delegates)
Mark Warner - 20.1 % (5,057 votes) (9 delegates)
Barack Obama - 72.2 % (429,176 votes) (0 delegates awarded)
Mark Warner - 25.1 % (149,201 votes) (0 delegates awarded)
*county-level map reflects caucus results only
Delegate Count to Date: (Total delegates available: 4,291; 3,791 non-super delegates; 2,419 needed for majority)
Barack Obama: 1,639; w/ super delegates - 1,941
Mark Warner: 879 w/ superdeleages - 919
States won to date:
Blue = Obama, Red = Warner
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2012 (cont.) - - - Just across town from where President Obama was addressing supporters in Alexandria, Va., Mitt Romney rallied a large, though noticeably less enthused crowd.
“I want to thank you all so much for making it so close here tonight! (applause) And I really want to thank the wonderful Republicans of Maryland and D.C. for my victories tonight! (applause) And I hear that we‘re on our way to a victory in the great state of Washington, so thank you! (applause) [“I want to talk to you all about the choice you have in this election, and why that choice matters. It is about picking a president who relies not just on words but on work - on hard work to get America back to work. That’s our goal.]* But on a separate level, you have another choice to make. You have the choice to nominate a candidate that can stand toe to toe against Obama for the long haul, and who can compete with him on a serious level in the general election, versus a candidate that risks polarizing the more moderate and independent voters that we need to win. Both Gov. Palin and I represent conservative change, [but only one of us is ready on day one to be commander-in-chief, ready to manage our economy, and ready to defeat the (Democrats)!]* So I’m in this race. I want to hear from the people of Wisconsin and Hawaii, and I definitely want to hear from the people in Ohio and Texas! And when all is said and done, we’re gonna put the White House back in Republican hands this November!
Several hundred miles away, at a rally in Baton Rouge, La., Palin slammed Romney and Obama in front of a noticeably more enthusiastic crowd than Romney's.
“They want you to believe that I can’t win. (loud boos) You know, I’ve always heard that when your opponent runs out of ammunition, the first thing they throw at you is the “she’s unelectable” card. Well, you know who else they said was unelectable ? . . . (screams of ’Reagan’ from the crowd) That’s right, the good ’ole Gipper! So please ignore Mitt Romney’s claims that I can’t win, uttered in the same hour that he lost THIS state's Republican primary by more than 30 points! (loud applause). We need to turn our eyes to our true political opponent, President Obama, before he keeps the nation on a path towards bankruptcy for four more years! I don‘t think we can take four more years of Obama‘s kind of change! America deserves better!” (loud cheers)
Although Romney was convincing, pundits seemed less assured that he could overtake Palin in the delegate count, absent a drastic shift in momentum.
“What I don’t quite understand is how he still sees himself as able to capture that magic number of delegates,“ argued CNN’s Candy Crowley. She continued:
“Sarah’s close to that number, or at least a lot closer than he is. Is he turning into the ‘Hillary Clinton’ of 2012?” Fox News commentator Glenn Beck was even more harsh:
“You know, this is a lot like the Obama/Clinton feud of 2008, except there are a few key differences. Mitt Romney is not leading by ANY metric whatsoever! If you can recall, Hillary was getting a lot of flack after Super Tuesday for not getting out of Obama’s way. But to be fair to her, she had a few arguments for remaining in the race. Hillary was winning virtually ALL of the top 10 biggest states. What’s Romney’s argument? That he won NY and California? So what?! Also, Hillary arguably won the popular vote against Obama in 2008 - and popular vote doesn’t rule the day, but at least there was some impetus for her remaining in the race until the end. Romney is definitely not winning in the popular vote. And not only that, he’s attacking the person that appears increasingly likely to be our nominee. At what point is he going to stop and realize that he very well may be harming the Republican's candidate to the benefit of the man he claims they both want to defeat?”
2012 Republican Potomac/Multi-state Primary Results
Red = Palin, Green = Romney
2012 Virginia Republican Primary (Open Primary)
Sarah Palin - 50.6 % (491,324 votes) (63 delegates)
Mitt Romney - 48.4 % ( 469,963 votes) (0 delegates)
2012 District of Columbia Republican Primary (Closed Primary)
Mitt Romney - 64.3 % (6,444 votes) (16 delegates)
Sarah Palin - 34.0 % (3,407 votes) (0 delegates)
2012 Maryland Republican Primary (Closed Primary)
Mitt Romney - 53.3 % (373,654 votes) (37 delegates)
Sarah Palin - 46.5 % (325,983 votes) (0 delegates)
2012 Louisiana Republican Primary (Closed Primary)
Sarah Palin - 69.8 % (380,649 votes) (40 delegates)
Mitt Romney - 28.6 % (155,968 votes) (0 delegates)
2012 Nebraska Republican Primary (Open Primary)
Sarah Palin - 65.7 % (129,294 votes) (33 delegates)
Mitt Romney - 33.3 % (65,532 votes) (0 delegates)
2012 Washington Republican Caucus and Primary (Closed Caucus and Primary) (primary results displayed in italics)
Mitt Romney- 54.9 % (9,875 votes) (20 delegates)
Sarah Palin - 44.2 % (7,950 votes) (0 delegates)
Mitt Romney - 49.2 % (289,902 votes) (20 delegates awarded)
Sarah Palin - 48.6 % (286,367 votes) (0 delegates awarded)
*county-level map reflects caucus results only
Delegate Count to date (Total Delegates Available - 2,329; 1,186 for majority)
Sarah Palin - 839 (including 12 fmr. Scott Brown delegates)
Mitt Romney - 725 (including 52 fmr. Scott Brown delegates)
States won to date:
Red = Palin, Green = Romney
Thursday, February 16, 2012 - - - Survey USA released polling on the GOP races in the upcoming contests of Hawaii and Wisconsin. Both states will vote on Tuesday, February 14.
Who do you support for the Republican nomination for President in 2012? (Survey USA, 400 likely Hawaii Republican caucus-goers, +/-4.5)
Mitt Romney - 52 %
Sarah Palin - 36 % %
Undecided/someone else: 12 %
Who do you support for the Republican nomination for President in 2012? (Survey USA, 700 likely Wisconsin Republican primary voters, +/-3.0)
Sarah Palin - 45 %
Mitt Romney - 41 %
Undecided/someone else: 14 %
No survey was taken of the Democratic races due to Mark Warner’s campaign suspension. However, both Hawaii and Wisconsin have reported that because the contests have been paid for, they will go on as scheduled. Obama is expected to sweep both states (although some Republican strategists have begun spinning that if Obama does not reach at least the 80-90% range with voters in both states, it could point to continued weakness on his part.) Primary 'spinning' season was indeed in full swing.
*Hillary Clinton speech:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...oryId=19188844
Thursday, February 16, 2012 - - - The Romney campaign has begun an all-out assault on the Republican National Committees (RNC) decision to push up the primary season by consolidating a number of the final states primaries into a single day on Tuesday, April 10th.
In late January, shortly following Sarah Palin’s surprise victory in South Carolina, the Republican Rules and Bylaws Committee of the RNC had voted in support of a plan to push up all of the primaries taking place following the Ohio/Tx primaries to April 10th. The 30 member committee approved the controversial plan 17-12. The basis behind the decision centered on the premise that in the event of a close contest between then-front-runner Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, it would be better for the primary season to end sooner rather than later. Members of the RNC feared that if Romney and Palin were to engage in a protracted battle, it would be damaging for the party’s general election hopes in November. RNC Rules and Bylaws Committee member Mary Matalin argued at the meeting:
“So while Mitt and Sarah are slugging it out, destroying each other in the trenches, Obama is going to be running on his campaign themes. It’s like we’re going to give him a free head-start. Changing the date of the final primaries would at least allow for the primaries to end well before the convention, and give us time to unite behind whomever the nominee will be.” Both the Palin and Romney campaigns endorsed the proposal (Romney’s camp believed they would perform much stronger on Super Tuesday than they did, and the Palin camp was said to support the proposal in the belief that she had the momentum, and the sooner the primaries ended, the better for her).
However, yesterday, Romney campaign manger (and ironically, the former head of the RNC), Ed Gillespie, sent an email requesting a vote and hearing on changing the primary dates back to their original dates (with the final primaries, SD and Montana, voting on June 5th). Said Gillespie:
“We will not deny nor conceal that our campaign had originally endorsed the new rule, but events on the ground have changed. And what was sadly forgotten a few weeks ago during the vote was the success that the close primary battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton had for the Democratic party. It allowed them to build up the Democratic machinery in all 50 states, and I don’t have to remind you what that meant in terms of the general election vote. Obama performed better than any Democrat in years in a lot of red states, and even came within 10 points in Montana! This primary race is close, very close. And the decision to rush this process provides both sides with less time to make their case to voters, and potentially stymies beefed up Republican machines in the 50 states. It’s damaging to the democratic process, and in the interest of a fair election, we respectfully request that the original primary schedule be resotred.” Palin surrogate and Governor of Texas (an upcoming primary state), Rick Perry (R) said
“Call me dense, but isn’t this a little too ironic? What was Ed’s problem with the new calendar when he was endorsing it just 3 weeks ago? This is just hard to stomach.” Not surprisingly, the Palin campaign vehemently lobbied against the proposal to revert to the old primary schedule.
In an impromptu hearing and vote, the Rules and Bylaws Committee voted 17-10 to keep the new, condensed primary schedule as it was set on January 23rd. The remaining primary schedule is:
Feb. 21 - Wisconsin and Hawaii
March 6 - Texas, Ohio, Vermont, Rhode Island, and the Virgin Islands
March 13 - Mississippi and Wyoming
April 10 - Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Indiana, Oregon, Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Puerto Rico, Guam
A new
Public Policy Polling poll on the 2012 GOP nomination race shows Palin with her largest lead of the contest yet,
(PPP, 2/15-17; 1,000 likely Republican voters; +/-4.0)
Sarah Palin - 52 %
Mitt Romney: 44 %
Undecided/Someone else: 4 %
Friday, February 17, 2012 - - - At 10:45 AM, President Obama appeared in the White House Press room alongside Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, and Diane Wood, a 7th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals judge. The President took to the podium:
“My fellow Americans, I am pleased to announce today that I have nominated the Honorable Judge Diane Wood, of the U.S. Court of Appeals, to the United States Supreme Court. Though Justice Kennedy’s unexpected death was heart wrenching, and tragic, I trust that he would have been more than pleased to have a legal scholar, the caliber of Ms. Wood, take his place. Ms. Wood was appointed to the Court of Appeals in 1995 by President Clinton, and has taught at a number of this nation’s prominent law schools. But more important than her background or legal education, is her view that judges are to interpret the law through the lense of the constitution. Her numerous opinions with the 7th Circuit reveal an uncanny ability to understand, on a personal level, the trials and tribulations of people that aren’t like her, or aren’t nearly as privileged. She will be an excellent addition to the court, and a worthy replacement for the late Justice Kennedy. Judge Wood, a few words, please?” (Judge Diane Woods takes to the podium . . .)
Judge Diane Wood, a frequent name on the Supreme Court short-lists, received cautious approval by the mainstream media. In some quarters, President Obama was praised for nominating such a seemingly uncontroversial, competent judicial scholar. A
flash poll taken by Gallup the following day showed that the American public had no major qualms with her nomination.
Generally speaking, how would you rate Obama’s choice of Diane Wood as a nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court - as excellent, good, only fair, or poor? (Gallup, 2/18-19, 900 adults nationwide, +/-3.5%)
% Excellent / Good % Only Fair % Poor % No opinion
38% 17% 15% 30%
Total Excellent/Good / Only fair/poor / No opinion
38 % / 32 % / 30 %
At the advice of advisers, Palin had steered clear of the abortion debate for most of the primary season. In an attempt to improve her numbers with independents, advisors had decided that any debate on abortion could only serve to harden opinions about the Governor, at a time when they were trying to soften opinion. But the nomination of Judge Diane Wood provided too much bait on one of her more passionate issues. It also provided her with red meat for the overwhelmingly pro-life Republican base at a time that her campaign was trying to put the final nail in Romney’s coffin. At a campaign event in Allentown, Pa., Palin lambasted the president’s nominee:
“Well, the most pro-abortion president in modern history has selected one of the most pro-abortion judges on the Court of Appeals. Go figure? (crowd roars) Judge Diane Wood, over her career, has issued opinions opposing bans on late-term abortions (boos). She’s also issued opinions opposing a waiting period for women who wanted abortions (boos). She’s issued opinions favoring laws that would silence our 1st Amendment right of free speech in protecting the unborn (boos)! Folks, she’s not replacing a Souter, or a Stevens. She’s replacing Kennedy, bless his soul, a true moderate, a true swing-vote. So instead of that moderate voice, we will now have a far-left, radically pro-abortion voice on our Supreme Court if the President has his way. This can NOT happen. Congress, you must prevent this!” And with that, the first shots were fired in the debate between the Republicans and Democrats on the nomination of Diane Wood to the Supreme Court.
Boarding a jet in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Mitt Romney was asked by a reporter for his views on Diane Wood. “
Well, I’ll be looking more closely at some of her opinions now, but form what I’ve heard, I’m not terribly thrilled at the prospects of having such an ardently pro-abortion judge on the court. And certainly not when that judge is replacing a moderate voice. All in all, I think Obama owed it to the American people to pick a moderate in the mold of Kennedy, but he didn’t do it. He picked someone that sounds pretty left. It’s a real shame.” When pressed as to whether or not he agreed with his primary opponent’s assertion that the Congress should fight her nomination, Romney was slightly less assertive:
“Well, I’ve always been one for supporting an up or down vote on judges, but I’m gonna wait to hear about this woman a little more. I’m really, really disappointed that President Obama is trying to insert a leftist on the court in place of Kennedy. He knows he will be shifting the direction of the court in a more leftward tilt for generations to come. That’s a big freaking deal!”
Another
Gallup poll reveals American’s ever-shifting opinions on the topic of abortion.
With respect to the abortion issue, would you consider yourself to be pro-choice, or pro-life? (Gallup, 2/18-2/20, 1,001 adults nationally, +/-3.5%)
Pro-Life - 47 %
Pro-Choice - 45 %
Wednesday, February 22, 2012 - - - PRESIDENT OBAMA SECURES THE NOMINATION; PALIN WIDENS LEAD WITH VICTORY IN WISCONSIN
Madison, Wisconsin, 2.22.12 - In another split decision, Sarah Palin emerged victorious in the more delegate rich state of Wisconsin last night, increasing her delegate lead over Gov. Romney, and confirming her current front-runner status. A national poll earlier in the week showed her opening a nearly double-digit lead over her opponent. President Obama also swept his home state and the Badger state in what were considered by pundits mere formalities. However, in an unexpected move, Obama secured the required delegates to clinch the nomination when 261 Warner delegates endorsed the president. Sen. Warner suspended his campaign one week ago. The president currently has 2,443 delegates, 24 more than would be required to clinch the nomination.
The A.P. has called the caucuses in Hawaii for Mitt Romney, although votes are still coming in. Pundits had predicted, leading into tonight’s contests, that the pressure would be on Governor Romney to pull off an upset in order to blunt Sarah Palin’s growing momentum. Though polling had shown Palin with a slight edge in Wisconsin, a Univ. of Wisconsin daily tracking poll had shown Romney down 5%, with 10% undecided. With 97% of precincts reporting, Palin leads with 57% of the vote in Romney’s back yard. Said Gov. Huckabee on his Fox News show:
“I think that at at some point, Romney’s going to have to realize that he’s not doing the party any good. He’s winning small nominal victories, usually by less than 8 points. Beyond that, the momentum is clearly behind Palin. I have to wonder, at what point will he realize that his attacks on her serve as perfect ammunition for Obama in the general election?”
MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough disagreed:
“Look, this is getting eerily similar to the Obama/Clinton race of 2008. And like Clinton then, the Palin camp is acting prematurely, as if they have this wrapped up. There is a magic number of delegates out there you must obtain, and Palin doesn’t have it. Look the primaries are going to end early, why not lets see what Romney can do? Are the odds against him? Absolutely. But his argument is a compelling one - can Palin, as polarizing as she is, win over the independents required to win a general election? The upcoming primaries will tell us whether or not that message is sinking in. But in the meantime, I say, let them run!”
2012 Wisconsin Republican Primary Results (Open primary)
Sarah Palin - 56.0 % (461,364 votes) (40 delegates)
Mitt Romney - 43.5 % (358,381 votes) (0 delegates)
Red = Palin, Green = Romney
2012 Hawaii Republican Caucuses (Closed caucuses)
Mitt Romney: 53.2 % (15,666 votes) (20 delegates)
Sarah Palin: 46.1 % (13,576 votes) (0 delegates)
Green = Romney, Red = Palin
Delegate Count to date (Total Delegates Available - 2,329; 1,186 for majority)
Sarah Palin - 879
Mitt Romney - 745
States won to date:
Red = Palin, Green = Romney
Wednesday, February 22, 2012 (cont.) - - - Barack Obama won two resounding victories in what many pundits considered to be mere formalities (the Hawaii and Wisconsin Democratic contests were paid for and ready to go, and thus, went on as scheduled). Having suspended his campaign earlier in the week, Warner had not campaigned in Wisconsin since mid-January, and was never on the air with TV ads in either state. Due to a surprise move on the part of 261 Warner delegates, the President was able to clinch the nomination a bit earlier than expected. Warner is not on record as having officially released any of his delegates to Obama, so many in the media interpreted the move as an act of defiance on the part of some former Warner loyalists who felt it was now time to rally around the President. However, others felt it was an obvious move, and would allow the Democrats to put the primary season behind them, as the Republicans continued to battle it out. Obama spoke to a crowd of 14,000 at a fairly last minute victory rally thrown together as soon as they learned of the Warner delegation’s endorsement.
“Here we are again! (raucous applause) I told you we’d be back here, and we are! And we’ve got some work to do, but we’re on our way America! We’re back on track, and we’re on our way!” (loud applause)
2012 Wisconsin Democratic Primary (Open Primary)
Barack Obama - 79.7 % (345,275 votes) (74 delegates)
Mark Warner - 16.5 % (71,481 votes) (0 delegates)
Blue = Obama
2012 Hawaii Democratic Caucuses (closed caucuses)
Barack Obama - 90.1 % (17,642 votes) (20 delegates)
Mark Warner - 7.7 % (1,508 votes)
Blue = Obama
Delegate Count to Date: (Total delegates available: 4,291; 3,791 non-super delegates; 2,419 needed for majority)
Barack Obama: 2,443
Mark Warner: 658
States won to date:
Blue = Obama, Red = Warner
Final Popular Vote Tally:
Obama pop vote total: 12,414,494 (62.39 %)
Warner pop vote total: 7,322,289 (36.80 %)
Total votes cast: 19,898,786
The daily tracking polls keeping up with President Obama’s job approval rating, just four days following his recapturing of the Democratic nomination, are reflecting a notable post-nomination bounce.
Obama Job Approval Rating
Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, 2/25/2012 (all adults)
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 46%
Net: + 2
Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll (likely voters) 2/25/2012
Approve: 47% (strongly approve - 30 %)
Disapprove: 51% (strongly disapprove - 39 %)
United States Democratic Primary And Caucus Results, County-Level, 2012
Blue = Obama, Red = Warner, White = No Primary/Caucus held
Obama pop vote total: 12,414,494 (62.39 %)
Warner pop vote total: 7,322,289 (36.80 %)
Total votes cast: 19,898,786
Friday, February 24, 2012 - - - At 10:15 AM, the Huffington Posts’ front page broke with the headline:
“ALASKA COURT DOCS. OBTAINED; PALINS TO DIVORCE!” Nearly half an hour later, the Associated Press broke with the official story on the Palin marriage rumors. According to documents that were leaked by an anonymous court official in Wasilla, Alaska, Sarah Palin has filed for a separation from her husband, Todd Palin, citing irreconcilable differences. All of a sudden, the GOP darling’s ever-present ’family drama’ threatened to upend her chances at securing the Republican nomination for the presidency, just when it looked as if she had it wrapped up.
At 11:35 AM, just over one hour after the story first broke on the Huffington Post, Sarah Palin delivered a press conference at a campaign stop in Columbus, Ohio. The media chattered about the possibility that the GOP frontrunner may be suspending her presidential campaign, and so for five minutes, the entire political world was focused on her remarks:
“I’ve convened this press conference today, with a heavy heart, to confirm what was leaked to the press earlier this morning, that myself and Todd are separating. (murmurs from the press) As we’ve learned time and again, in public life, you live in the public view. While we had hoped to make this announcement under different circumstances, we can not deny what is taking place in our private lives. During this time of difficulty, we would like to ask that, as it pertains to our children, you please respect their privacy. They did not cause this, are not responsible for this, and should not be punished for it. Please, as a mother, respect their privacy. As for me, I want to be unequivocally clear: I remain a candidate for the Republican nomination for president, and I remain the frontrunner for that position as well! (some scattered applause in the press room) But I wasn’t born yesterday, and I know that there are many out there that would benefit greatly to have this 2012 campaign revolve around my marriage. I will speak candidly soon about why some decisions in my marriage have been made. But it will be at a time and a place of my choosing. And I will only discuss it, because this election is too important to allow it to be devoured by a tabloid scandal, and sadly, one that revolves around a very gut-wrenching private matter. Thank you.”
Monday, February 27, 2012 - - - After having worked its way through Congress since mid-January, the
Small Business Recovery Act of 2012 had finally passed both Houses, and was being signed into law by President Obama. The bill had been held up by Senate Republicans due to disagreements over the size and amount of the package. The Democrats used the bill initially to criticize Republicans for being hypocrites. Fmr. Speaker and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Ca.) stated two weeks ago:
“I really hope that the country is paying attention to what the GOP is asking for here. One second, they’re on their soapboxes about deficits, and massive government spending, and then the next second, they’re holding up a bill the American people want and need because it isn’t big enough? Where’s the logic there? The Democrats support an agenda that puts the country ahead of rigid philosophical views. The Republicans don’t. We’ll be talking about this again between now and November.” Democrats had argued for a $60 billion bill, with $45 billion being set aside to provide loans to small businesses, and the remaining $15 billion going to tax cuts. Republicans wanted a bigger bill with a higher proportion of tax cuts: $125 billion total, with $25 billion going towards loans, and the remaining $100 billion going to tax cuts. Freshman Congressman Harold Johnson (R-NC) retorted at the time:
“Democrats are trying to confuse the voters. We are the party of fiscal responsibility. We do want to reduce government spending. But as a government we know there are some free market principles that we can use to prime our economy - it’s called ’tax cuts.’ When you cut taxes for anyone, it helps their economic situation. When you cut taxes for the primary job generators in this country, you start moving the economy again. I don’t know what it is about a ’tax cut’ that Representative Pelosi hates so much.” The final price tag was $110 billion, with $80 billion going towards tax cuts for small businesses, and the remaining $30 billion going into a fund to provide for loans. The
House passed the bill 247 - 175, while the
Senate approved the measure 53 - 45.
Speaking at the signing ceremony, Obama commented:
“I am more than pleased to say that the fact that I’m sitting here today is a wonderful sign in the ongoing attempts between the Congress and myself to accomplish bipartisan change. [. . .It was critical that we cut taxes and make more loans available to entrepreneurs. . . This is important because small businesses produce most of the new jobs in this country. They are the anchors of our Main Streets. They are part of the promise of America - the idea that if you’ve got a dream and you’re willing to work hard, you can succeed. That’s what leads a worker to leave a job to become her own boss. That’s what propels a basement inventor to sell a new product, or an amateur chef to open a restaurant. Its this promise that has drawn millions to our shores and made our economy the envy of the world.]* We may be weakened, but we are the strongest for a reason, and we’ll remain so. Because we value free, independent, entrepreneurial competitiveness. And giving revenue back to the people that take advantage of this spirit is the best way to get our economy back on track.”
Fmr. Vice President Dick Cheney remarked on Meet the Press:
“You’ll be hard pressed to get me to disagree with the sentiment the President just expressed in the clip you played. But where has this man been for the last 3 years? Who is this new found, free-market, pro-tax cut capitalist-savior? The small businesses bill was a good bill, but it doesn’t make up for all that he’s done to kick this economy into a deeper recession than it had to be. The American people’s memories aren’t this short. He‘s a johnny-come-lately to the proven fact that people spend money more wisely than the government.”
*Obama remarks:
http://theuptake.org/2010/09/27/obam...ess-jobs-bill/
Tuesday, February 28, 2012 - - - With the Palin separation dominating the T.V. news cycle since Friday, rumors settled on the theory that Todd Palin had been involved in an affair with an Alaskan native. Popular liberal Alaskan blog, ‘Mudflats,‘ claimed to have access to someone inside the Palin inner-circle who had confirmed the affair. After releasing photos of Todd Palin and his alleged mistress together, answers started coming in. The young lady’s name is Stephanie Johansen, a married 15-year native of Alaska, and long-time friend of the Palin family. Stephanie’s husband, Shane, is a commercial fisherman and longtime friend of Todd Palin’s. The couple has two children, aged 9 and 3. Since her press conference on Monday, Governor Palin has not spoken to anyone publicly about the separation, despite a promise to “speak candidly” about the mystery surrounding her and her husband’s split, and a promise to do so “soon.”
Although the networks had been trying, both President Obama and Governor Romney had remained mum on the Palin separation saga. That silence was broken on Tuesday.
“I refuse to speculate on something so personal, and think it would be cheap to do otherwise,” commented Mitt Romney, Palin’s primary opponent, and potential benefactor of any fallout from the scandal.
“I’m not going to comment on the speculation of infidelity. This is a deeply personal matter, and one that hasn’t been confirmed. It’s speculation, and until proven otherwise, it’s cruel speculation.” ABC News Reporter Jake Tapper attempted to steer the President towards the subject the following day during a press conference on Supreme Court nominee Diane Wood:
“Jake, I know what you’re doing, and I’m not going to go there. This is not a matter involving me, and it’s certainly not a matter involving government interest, so I won’t waste any more time on it. Now please tell me you have another question.”
Cable pundits anticipated a ratings bonanza as the Palin-adultery scandal rippled through the country. Ron Reagan, Jr., occasional political pundit, argued on MSNBC:
“These Republican Conservative family values are really something to behold, aren‘t they?” (chuckling) “The hypocrisy of their demands on the public versus the lives they live in private is too much to bare. Surely I’m not the only one seeing the irony.” “No, Ron, but you could do a better job of not acting like you’re reveling in it,” fired back Joe Scarborough.
“You know, she isn’t my pick, and I’ve been clear that I think Mitt Romney is more electable, but you can’t drag a woman through the mud because her husband cheats on her. It’s the definition of sexist, and hard to believe coming from some of you feminists, or feminist thinkers on the left.” Maddow argued back:
“Look, that’s not Ron’s point, and that’s not my point. It’s not about reveling in it. It’s about pointing out the hypocrisy of it. This lady held herself out there to the media as the perfect Christian woman running the perfect Christian household, and come to find out, things weren’t as perfect as she wanted us all to believe. Now, do I care how wonderful things are in the Palin household? No! But it does matter, because she’s made her household such an integral part of who she is as a person. And because she’s basically running a “character” campaign, that’s relevant.” Chris Matthews chimes in:
“Well either way, I’m definitely of the mind that the longer she waits to squash this, the worse it will be for her. I’m not saying for the primary. I think she’s got the primaries wrapped up against Romney. I’m talking long term. If she doesn’t get out there soon, like, now, and explain some of this and put some of this to rest, then she is doing irreparable damage to her image.” Pundit Kirsten Powers adds:
“I can’t believe we’re sitting here talking about this as if this isn’t the most sexist thing we’ve ever heard of. Bill Clinton actually did the cheating, and he was fine and dandy to continue to hold his office! This is no different than the Mark and Jenny Sanford story. A woman that’s been cheated-on is not the culprit. She’s the victim. And Rachel, no, she did not hold herself out as the perfect Christian woman. That was a complete caricature created by none other than, well, you and the media. What in the world does whether or not Todd Palin can keep it in his pants have to do with Sarah’s ability to balance a budget, or defend our country? The sexism in politics is rampant, especially when it comes to Governor Palin.”
Several polls taken in the days following the scandal showed signs of a disgruntled Republican base, and a potentially newly-invigorated battle for the Republican nomination. Pundits wonder, is this a coincidental polling blip, or a real reaction to the Palin separation story?
2012 Republican Candidates, National (Quinnipiac, 2/25-27, 2,000 All likely voters, +/- 2.5)
Favorable / Unfavorable. Numbers in brackets = favorability ratings amongst Republicans.
Mitt Romney - 44 / 48 [ 57 / 34 ]
Sarah Palin - 44 / 51 [ 60 / 29 ]
Who do you want to be the GOP nominee for President in 2012? (PPP, 2/26-28; 1,200 likely Republican primary voters; +/-3.5)
Sarah Palin - 50 %
Mitt Romney: 46 %
Undecided/Someone else: 4 %
Potential 2012 match-ups (PPP, 2/26-28; 1,500 likely voters, national; +/-3%)
Mitt Romney v. Barack Obama: 43 - 46 %
Sarah Palin v. Obama: 42 - 49 %
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
In Supreme Court News, Congressional Republicans have begun to hammer nominee Judge Diane Wood over perceived ‘liberal’ views and controversial opinions she had authored involving abortion as a U.S. Court of Appeals Judge. The cases in question involved state bans on partial-birth abortions. At the time, Judge Wood had voted to prevent Indiana and Wisconsin from enforcing a state ban on partial-birth abortions. Democrats and pro-choice advocates argued that Republicans were distorting Ms. Wood’s record, and ignoring the facts of the cases she heard. Liberal advocates also argued that Republicans were inflating the abortion issue because of the President‘s prerogative to appoint someone to the left of Anthony Kennedy to the swing vote seat.
“Get over it, you bunch of babies!” shouted Bill Maher on his show, ’Real Time.’
“Jesus, you would think that the President had taken over in a military coup! He was elected! Not only that, he was elected with the clearest mandate any president in this country has had in 20 years. You see, there’s this annoying little article called Article III that says the President gets to appoint Supreme Court Justices. Alright then, strict constructionists . . . Construe that! So what if Obama gets to replace the whole court?! He’s the president, it’s his job! And thank god the ever important decision of picking a justice to tilt the balance of the court came down to Obama, and not a Palin or a Romney.”
Anti-abortion advocates claimed that Ms.Wood’s opinions reveal that she is too outside of mainstream American thought to be confirmed to the court. Sen. Orin Hatch (R) of Utah contended
“No one is denying that she is smart. The question is, ‘is she too radical to act within the confines of the constitution?’ And the answer there is, ‘probably.’ The Supreme Court has already ruled on partial-birth abortions, and they’ve ruled that bans on such horrific procedures are not unduly burdensome on a woman’s right to an abortion as provided for under Casey v. Planned Parenthood, and the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution. So yes, it is fair to ask if she is too outside of the mainstream to be trusted to keep her ideological views out of the cases she might hear. In my opinion, and in most American voter’s opinion, her views on abortion are extreme, and most Americans will be outraged to have such an extreme voice replace Kennedy’s voice of moderation. It cannot be repeated enough. This isn’t the president’s standard, run-of-the-mill Supreme Court appointment. This appointment will determine the balance of our Supreme Court for at least the next decade, and probably longer. The President went too far left with this pick, and he did it with too much at stake.”
Wednesday, February 29, 2012 (cont) - - - Quinnipiac University releases a few polls of upcoming contests. Until the unfolding Palin story, polling and pundits had pegged Palin as the heavy favorite in both Ohio and Texas, given the conservative Republican primary electorate in both states, coupled with her growing momentum. However, fresh new polling, coupled with an all-open primary night, gave growing credence to the conventional wisdom that Governor Mitt Romney may have another chance to mount an upset.
In Ohio:
Who do you support for the GOP nomination for president in 2012? (Quinnipiac University, 2/27-3/1, 650 likely Republican voters; +/-5.0)
Palin - 44 %
Romney - 44 %
Undecided/Someone else - 12 %
In Texas:
Who do you support for GOP nomination for president in 2012? (Quinnipiac University, 2/27-3/1, 650 likely Republican voters; +/-5.0)
Palin - 51 %
Romney - 41 %
Undecided/Someone else - 8 %
In Pennsylvania:
Who do you support for the GOP nomination for president in 2012? (Quinnipiac University, 2/27-3/1, 650 likely primary voters; +/-5.0)
Romney - 42 %
Palin - 39 %
Undecided/Someone else - 19 %
On Wednesday evening, Entertainment Tonight announces that the Palin campaign has confirmed a special ABC exclusive interview, to air Friday Night on 20/20 with Governor Palin, and to be hosted by Barbara Walters. E.T. notes that Palin will be speaking about her recent separation, for the first time, in detail.
Friday, March 2, 2012
The
20/20 Barbara Walters / Sarah Palin interview was highly anticipated by political observers, if not the American public in general. Reportedly viewed by nearly 17 million viewers, the former governor explained to the American public the reasons for the recent dissolution of her marriage with Todd Palin. In the interview, Palin faced tough questions from Ms. Walters on when she knew of Todd’s infidelity, whether there had been any on her part, and how she is dealing with the pain. Below are select excerpts from the interview
Barbara Walters:
When did you first learn your husband was having an affair?
Sarah Palin:
Ummm, the day after the Super-Tuesday primary contests, he told me.
Walters:
The day after Super Tuesday?
Palin:
Yep. Talk about timing, right?
Walters:
Oh my goodness. What did he say? How?
Palin:
We were in Virginia, campaigning for that state’s primary. We had just finished lunch, and were regrouping quickly in the hotel room when he told me that he had some news that was going to forever change the way I viewed him, and would possibly change the nature of my political race. That’s when he told me that he had been involved in an affair for two years with an old friend . . .
Walters:
Were you surprised? Any indication now, or in the past, that this was happening?
Palin:
None, and I was shocked. Still am, to some extent . . .(continues talk)
__________________________________________________ ___________________
Later in the interview. . .
Walters:
Have you ever been unfaithful in your marriage?
Palin:
Absolutely not. And to my knowledge, no one is alleging that. (brief pause)
Give them a second and I’m sure they will! (laughing)
__________________________________________________ ________________
Later in the interview . . .
Walters:
What would you say to those wondering how something like this, a failing marriage, could slide under your radar?
Palin:
You know, I think it’s important for people to remember that I’m not perfect, and I’ve never claimed to be. One of the reasons I’ve been successful in public life is because I’ve always held myself, and my family, out to be that all-American family. We have love, success, happiness, wisdom. But with all of that, like every American family, we have our darker sides. And I would be willing to argue that we’ve been scrutinized to a level that a lot of political families, even presidential families, have not. More than a few of our less proud moments have been broadcast on television for the world to see. As a public figure, and as a candidate for high office, I expect that. But I do not expect to be judged on a higher standard than my political colleagues and opponents. Marriages fail in this country, at a disappointingly high rate. My family, as is now obvious, is certainly not immune to statistics. But it’s dishonest to compare me to Fmr. President Clinton - a sitting president when his shenanigans took place, and it's dishonest to suggest I've done anything on the level of adultery. So I definitely have to question where some of these comparisons are coming from.
Walters:
Would you call it sexism?
Palin:
Yes, yes I think I would Barbara.
__________________________________________________ ____________________
Later in the interview . . .
Walters:
You said that ‘marriages fail.’ You sound sort of like a woman that's made up her mind. Have you made up your mind about the fate of your marriage? Is there any chance at reconciliation, and if not, what would you say to those who argue that if Hillary did it, you can too?
Palin:
I would have to respond by saying that everyone’s situation is different. I’ve been asked this a lot in the last week, and I’ve found that the best advice is to stay true to yourself, because no one story is the same as any other. Barbara, I don’t know yet what is going to happen between Todd and myself. It would be a lie to say that I’m not hurt, and I would be lying to say that I think the best recipe for the two of us is to remain in the same household. Who knows what time will hold for us. But then again, at least for now, I have to keep some things private. I just don’t know yet.
__________________________________________________ ______________________
Later in the interview . . .
Walters:
Governor, I have to ask. When you found out, did you cry?
Palin: (brief pause)
Yes, of course. I’m a human being, so I cried.
__________________________________________________ ______________________
The interview was well received by many in the media. Observers felt that Palin remained composed without appearing detached or unaffected by the recent bad news. Larry Sabato even speculated that the Walters
“did you cry” question could be the single most successful recruitment tool for the Palin campaign in their quest for female voters. Others were less convinced that Palin had done herself any favors.
“She still came off looking like a hypocrite,” argued CNN’s Campbell Brown.
“She throws rocks at people that don’t live perfect Christian lives, but asks for privacy when that lense is focused on her own. And how can we be expected to believe that she just discovered a two-year affair? When did she really know about this affair, and for how long was it covered up for the sake of her presidential bid?” Even popular former Gov. Jeb Bush, in an interview with Fox News, wondered allowed:
“Any talk of marital infidelity and adultery, no matter who its leveled at, when talked about in the capacity of a presidential candidacy, is a bad thing. Just ask former President Clinton. And I just don’t see how the media’s week-long obsession with Sarah Palin’s marriage does a thing to help the Republicans win back the White House in 2008. It’s up to her to get the party back on message. And if she doesn’t, well, that’s why Mitt Romney’s still in this.”
Wednesday, March 7, 2012 - - -
RESILIENT PALIN SWEEPS BIG STATES, ROMNEY WINS SMALLER CONTESTS; PRESIDENT ANNOUNCES RECORD-BREAKING FUNDRAISING HAUL
El Paso, Texas - 03.07.2012 - In what was being hailed by Romney-backers as a voter referendum on Palin’s very-public handling of the break-up of her marriage, while hailed by Palin-ites as Romney’s last stand, both sides found reason to claim victory.
Sarah Palin was declared the victor in the night’s two most watched contests. Carrying both Ohio and Texas (the latter of which by a large margin), Palin was able to continue her delegate lead expansion, while also claiming to be the comeback kid for a second time around.
“Thank you Texas,” screamed a jubilant Palin at a Texas victory rally in Dallas.
“In the worst of times, you’ve been there. And your kind words of sympathy and dedication have touched me in a way I’ll never be able to quite explain. But as you can see, despite a brief pit stop, I’m still in this fight! (loud applause)
And that’s the message you just sent to the talking-heads out there! (loud applause)
I’m still in this, because America is on the cusp of a great reawakening! And we demand a leader who looks to the very best in America, not one that ignores its exceptionalism! We need a President who inspires, and lifts her up, and believes her best days are still ahead of her!”
The Romney campaign is also expected to make the talk show rounds this morning, as Romney carried Vermont, Rhode Island, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
“If she’s got this thing wrapped up, then we sure couldn’t tell it last night. We put up some valiant efforts in Texas and Ohio, but everyone knew all along those states were made up of our opponents demographics, and we came awfully darn close to an upset in Ohio, and a lot of people didn’t see that coming. So we reinforced what we've said all along: Gov. Palin performs poorly in the "open-primary" states, and she'll perform poorly amongst independents in November too, Bill,” argued Romney campaign manager Ed Gillespie on ‘The O’Reilly’ factor.'
“And we swept her completely under the rug in three of the nights five contests. That’s not the sign of some one that has this campaign wrapped up. We like what we’re seeing in our poll numbers, and what you won't hear anyone saying in the media is that we exceeded expectations last night. But that doesn’t quite fit with the riveting ‘Obama v. Palin’ story being spun out there by you guys.” O’Reilly responded:
“Hey, cheap shot, cheap shot! I’m not pushing anything, so I don’t know what you mean by ‘the likes of you guys.’ And I call it like I see it, but it seems to me like your guy is staying in this no matter what.” (interrupting)
“Hold on Bill, one sec . . .” spurted Gillespie. O‘Reilly continued,
“he wants to rack up as many states as he can, and he wants to lobby the pledged delegates over the summer. It’s the Clinton suicide strategy that never took shape in 2008!” “Absolutely not, Bill . . .” Gillespie argued.
2012 Republican Mini-Tuesday Primary Results
Red = Palin, Green = Romney
VERMONT: (open primary)
Mitt Romney / Sarah Palin -
62.1 % / 36.5 %
Romney popular vote/delegates won: 62,923 / 14
Palin popular vote/delegates won: 36,984 / 0
RHODE ISLAND: (open primary)
Mitt Romney / Sarah Palin -
64.7 % / 32.0 %
Romney popular vote / delegates won: 62,004 / 17
Palin popular vote / delegates won: 30,667 / 0
TEXAS: (open primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney -
58.2 % / 40.6 %
Palin popular vote / delegates won: 1,382,299 / 116
Romney popular vote / delegates won: 964,284 / 21
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS: (open primary)
Mitt Romney / Sarah Palin -
58.4 % / 39.5 %
Romney popular vote / delegates won: 18,831 / 15
Palin popular vote / delegates won: 12,804 / 0
OHIO: (open primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney -
51.8 % / 48.0 %
Palin popular vote / delegates won: 976,670 / 65
Romney popular vote / delegates won: 905,022 / 20
Delegate Count to date (Total Delegates Available - 2,329; 1,186 for majority)
Sarah Palin - 1,060
Mitt Romney - 832
States won to date:
Red = Palin, Green = Romney
Wednesday, March 7, 2012 (cont.) - - - With the largest financial take of the primary season thus far, President Obama’s campaign announced that it raised $51.8 million dollars in donations in the month of February, with over 300,000 new contributors. The President’s February tally was his largest haul since he announced his reelection in mid 2011, and was nearly $20 million more than he raised in the previous month of January. Lots had been made of Obama’s fundraising by Washington insiders, which had fallen well short of the record-breaking levels of 2008. In the same month of February, 2008, the Obama campaign announced that they had raised $55 million. President Obama also holds the all-time fundraising record for raising $150 million in the final weeks of his campaign in 2008. Said campaign manager David Plouffe
“We felt very comfortable with where we were at before this announcement, and we certainly do after it. You know, enthusiasm has suffered some since 2008, and that’s to be expected. But we’ve kept up well with our Republican opponents, and I think this number puts us on top.” He was correct, as Mitt Romney had the previous record of the season, having raised over $44 million in the month of January 2012, with Sarah Palin close behind, having raised $43 million in the same month. The President raised $33 million in the month of January, 2012.
Saturday, March 10, 2012 - - - As Romney campaigned in a Philadelphia suburb, attempting to stake out some ground in the final, primary-season-ending contests on April 10, a
new PPP poll of Republican likely voters showed Palin receiving a slight bounce after capturing Texas and Ohio:
Who do you want to be the GOP nominee for President in 2012? (PPP, 3/7-8; 1,200 likely Republican primary voters; +/-3.5)
Sarah Palin - 51 % (+1)
Mitt Romney: 44 % (-2)
Undecided/Someone else: 5 %
In the days following the Ohio/Tx/multi-state contests, the Romney campaign was faced with a difficult, if not unlikely road to the nomination. His opponent was only 125 delegates, give or take a few, from capturing the required number of delegates to claim the nomination. Romney was over 300 delegates away. In order to win the nomination outright by reaching the magic number of delegates, he would have to win virtually all of the remaining contests, save one or two. This led some commentators on the right to accuse Romney of being power-hungry and damaging to the party’s chances in November.
“I’ve always had great respect for Governor Romney, viewed him as a rational, pragmatic guy. But I don’t understand his train of thought here,” stated columnist Charles Krauthamer.
"All he has to do is take a look at the delegate count, and the polling in the upcoming primary states, and see that he’s going to fall well short of the nomination, and that Palin will secure the delegates required. Is he now suggesting that even if she secures the required delegates, he will not concede and will lobby those delegates to switch sides? Is that even allowed? All I know is it’s Romney, not Palin, who’s employing the dreaded “scorched earth” strategy, against one of the Republican’s own, nonetheless. He’s turning into a real spoiler.”
But in other circles, Romney was viewed as the party’s last hope at gaining the White House, and his surrogates were compelling in mapping his strategy for victory. Following O‘Reilly‘s suggestion a week earlier, former Reagan speechwriter Peggy Noonan suggested that the primary may come down to a backroom delegate battle:
“The only feasible way that I can see Mitt Romney becoming the nominee now is to perform strongly in the remaining contests. Win at least half, preferably more. Get as close to Palin’s delegate amount as possible, and then lobby the delegates like hell over the summer. Hope for a Palin implosion, and remember, drama follows her, so that’s not out of the question. Hope to steal enough delegates to clinch the nomination before the convention, but if necessary, take it to the convention floor. Unity will hopefully not be a problem, given both Palin and Romney’s public agreement to support the eventual winner’s campaign; granted, the longer this thing drags on, the less likely they seem to honor that commitment. But that aside, I can certainly justify why he’s still running.”
But on this day, while campaigning just outside of Philadelphia, Romney sensed a small wind at his back. Appearing on stage before a crowd of 6,000, the Massachusetts Governor was joined by former Presidents George W. and George H.W. Bush, as well as former Governor of Florida, Jeb Bush. Said former President George W. Bush to an excited crowd:
“I’m standing here today with my pop, and my brother Jeb, to announce my proud endorsement of Governor Mitt Romney for the next President of the United States!” (loud applause)
“You know, it didn’t take long to figure out that despite the twists and turns of life, having a Democrat in office isn’t always the best solution. (applause) I think Mitt Romney can set us right again! He’s [exactly what we need in a president - somebody who can handle the tough decisions, somebody who won’t flinch in the face of danger.”]* After the rally in which the Bush men stood in unity behind Romney, George W. was asked by a local reporter how he felt about being asked to campaign for Republican candidates again after sitting out the 2008 elections. He bantered:
[“It’s not about me. . . I’ve done my bit. . . I can help raise him money, and if he wants my pretty face standing by his side at one of these rallies, I’d be glad to show up. . . But they’re going to be looking at him.”]*
George W. Bush’s favorability rating amongst Americans, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll from February 2012:
Favorable - 48 %
Unfavorable - 46 %
. . . amongst Republicans (63 / 32 %)
While it was no surprise that the Bush’s privately supported Romney (their attempts at coaxing Sen. Scott Brown from the race back in January before Super Tuesday were well publicized, though never commented on by any of the Bush clan; Jeb Bush actually endorsed Mitt Romney just before the Florida primary), pundits were surprised at the timing of the endorsement. Many thought it was risky.
“You have to wonder where this endorsement was before February 7th,” argued Kathleen Parker on CNN’s Parker/Spitzer.
“At this stage of the game, it seems too risky for me. Two, TWO former Republican presidents endorsing the long-shot for the GOP nomination? Even if this accomplishes their intended effect (the Romney base will get fired up and momentum will shift to Romney), it risks further alienating the conservative, anti-government Tea Party wing of the GOP, which have decisively backed Palin in the nominating contests to date. It’s just risky, very risky for two former Presidents, and risky for the Bush brand in general. What happens if she becomes the nominee? What if she actually wins in November? What would this mean for Jeb’s political future? I don’t think it was wise of them to do this today." Her co-host disagreed: “
This is the best that Romney can hope for at this point, and it just might work. Look, at a time where Palin’s marriage is still distracting from the debate, Romney looks more and more appealing. The Bush’s want to return Republicans to power, not simply make a point in this election. For them, its principle, but it’s also about winning. They don’t think Palin can win, so they’re trying to shake things up. I think that it will help Romney. The Tea Party faction is strong, but the Bush’s are very appealing to the Romney-type-Republicans, and to a decent number of Tea Partiers. Will this endorsement win Romney the nomination? I just don’t know, but it helps."
A
flash poll released by Rasmussen Reports shows a tight race in Wyoming, with Palin the favorite in Mississippi (
Wyoming: Romney - 47 %, Palin - 46% ; Mississippi: Palin - 54 %, Romney - 38 %).
*W. Bush remarks:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23481178/
Monday, March 12, 2012 - - - UNEMPLOYMENT HITS 32-MONTH LOW; DECLINES FOR 5TH STRAIGHT MONTH!
Washington D.C., 03.13.12 - Newly released labor department statistics show that unemployment has dropped to 9.0% for the first time since May, 2009. The last time unemployment was lower was in April 2009, when 8.9% of Americans were classified as unemployed. While Republicans lamented the duration of high unemployment, Democrats pointed to positive trends. Speaking to reporters during a press conference about the new economic numbers, President Obama drove home his campaign theme of steady, consistent progress.
“I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it 100 times over. We’re not there yet, but we’re on our way. I warned from the start that this process would be tedious. But alas, we can safely say that we are seeing real, steady signs of improvement. We’ve passed a government stimulus bill that pumped much needed resources into cash-starved states, and got Americans slowly, but surely, back to work. We signed tax cuts into law for the middle class, while vetoing irresponsible, deficit-creating tax cuts for the wealthiest of Americans. I recently signed the small businesses tax cut, a bipartisan compromise need I remind you, which provides our nations’s largest job creators with the necessary relief to allow them to increase payroll. Because of these policies, policies that my Administration has either endorsed or championed, private sector jobs are increasing, adding 76,000 jobs last month; a steady, yet consistent gain from the worst days of the recession that began almost 4 years ago. Public sector and government jobs held steady as well, adding nearly 4,000 jobs. For five straight months, the number of Americans seeking gainful employment has decreased, and more Americans are working today than there were over 3 years ago, just 2 months into my presidency. We’re not there yet, but we’re on our way. The trajectory is positive, and I don’t see how the Republicans can disagree. They will, but it will be hard for them to explain. You can’t campaign against growth.”
Potential opponent Gov. Palin responded during a fundraiser in Seattle, Washington:
“It’s a sad, sad day when the NY Times sings hallelujah for a 9% unemployment rate. They’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel there. What that news headline should have read is ‘unemployment rate above 9% for 3 straight years’! That is an unacceptable economic record, and any other leader or manager would be thrown out on their behinds for such a performance. If this is not the clearest evidence of the need for change this November, then I don’t know what is.”
The daily tracking polls showed that President Obama’s approval ratings were stabilizing closer to 50 %, after nearly 2 years of being between 40-45%.
Obama Job Approval Rating
Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, 3/14/2012 (all adults)
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 45%
Net: + 4
Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll (likely voters) 2/25/2012
Approve: 48% (strongly approve - 31 %)
Disapprove: 51% (strongly disapprove - 38 %)
Net: -3
In the Republican race, a quickly released national look at the GOP race showed that the endorsements of former Presidents George W. and George H.W. Bush may have shifted the few remaining undecideds in Mitt Romney’s favor - Romney had gained 4 points since the previous poll 5 days prior, while Palin had slightly lost ground:
Who do you want to be the GOP nominee for President in 2012? (PPP, 3/11-13; 1,200 likely Republican voters; +/-3.5)
Sarah Palin - 50 % (-1)
Mitt Romney: 48 % (+4)
Undecided/Someone else: 4 %
Wednesday, March 14, 2012 - - - STALEMATE : CANDIDATES SPLIT THE NIGHT WHILE PARTY INSIDERS CALL FOR AN END; WARNER RUMORED TO ENDORSE!
Casper, W.Y. , 03.14.12 - Republican Party insiders grew increasingly weary Tuesday night as it became clear that the GOP nomination battle would continue until at least April 10th. Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney both claimed victories, with Romney winning a caucus in Wyoming, and Palin winning the primary in Mississippi. The national media paid little attention to either contest, instead focusing their attention attention on the final contests to take place on April 10th. But while the media was gearing up for a final Palin/Romney showdown, Republican Party leaders were privately pleading with both campaigns. An anonymous Romney Campaign insider informed a CBS reporter that RNC Chairman Michael Steele had spoken with the campaign earlier in the day about a meeting with the Palin camp, but would not speak further about what the purpose of such a meeting would be. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), who had remained neutral through the primary process, was now privately calling on Mitt Romney to suspend his campaign in light of the delegate math and the likely result on April 10th. The Romney campaign was defiant, believing that the Bush’s endorsement, coupled with Palin’s small decline with Conservatives in the wake of her divorce, would cause a much better than expected performance on April 10th. Then, he'd hope that the new momentum, along with a greatly decreased delegate gap with Palin, would cause Palin’s delegates to wobble, and Romney could clinch the nomination. Said Romney at a rally in Eugene, Oregon:
“We’re not out of this. We just had another surprising win in Wyoming, and I think that with the help of fmr. President Bush 41 and 43, I will be the big winner on April 10. I think my victories show serious doubt and reservations about a Palin ticket in the Fall. I will be in this race until April 10, and after that I willl have a decision about what direction my campaign will go. Republicans deserve a choice, especially in light of recent developments.”
Pundits on Tuesday evening were also focused on Sen. Mark Warner’s clearest indication since withdrawing from the Democratic Primary that he intended to announce an endorsement soon. After leaving The Hyatt hotel outside of Washington D.C. Tuesday afternoon, a reporter caught up with the former presidential candidate. When asked about who he would support for president, he replied: “I’ll be addressing that very soon.” The reporter pressed, as Sen. Warner walked away, “Are you saying you’ll be endorsing the President?” Warner quickly threw back: “I’m just saying I’ll be making an endorsement.” A few in the media quietly chattered about the possibility that Warner may not be backing the former President. . .
Wyoming: (closed caucus)
Mitt Romney / Sarah Palin -
55.7 % / 42.9 %
Romney popular vote / delegates won: 27,155 / 28
Palin popular vote / delegates won: 20,914 / 0
MISSISSIPPI: (open primary)
Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney -
62.0 % / 37.1 %
Palin popular vote / delegates won: 242,584 / 36
Romney popular vote / delegates won: 145,159 / 0
Delegate Count to date (Total Delegates Available - 2,329; 1,186 for majority)
Sarah Palin - 1,096
Mitt Romney - 860
States won to date:
Wednesday, March 15, 2012 - - - An off-the-cuff remark made by Vice President Joe Biden at a private fundraiser in Anaheim, California, dominated the blogosphere and cable news for the day. When questioned by an audience member about the need for an endorsement by Sen. Warner, VP Biden responded: “I think the President needs his endorsement about as much as he needs Dick Cheney’s endorsement.” A part stunned, part excited crowd reacted with muffled laughter. Later the same day, Vice President Biden released a statement through his press office in which he apologized to Sen. Warner for “crass, untrue” remarks. Fmr. Vice President Dick Cheney responded later in the day when asked by a reporter how he felt about Vice President Biden's comments: "He's incorrect. I'm almost certain they need Sen. Warner's endorsement more than they need mine."
Favorable/Unfavorable (CNN/Opinion Research, 3/3-7, 800 adults, nationally; +/-3.5)
Vice President Joe Biden - 42 / 50 %
Fmr. Vice President Dick Cheney - 40 / 51 %
Later that same afternoon, President Obama reiterated VP Biden’s apology:
“You know, Joe sometimes opens his mouth, and he steps in it a little,” (laughter from president and press)
“I’ve spoken to Sen. Warner today, and Sen. Warner is a former colleague of Joe’s as well, so he knows Joe, and he said there were no hurt feelings. I definitely think that this episode is a bit of a distraction though from what’s taking place in the United States Senate right now with my Supreme Court nominee, Judge Wood. Republican obstruction is on high alert again. Whether they’re shutting down the operation of the federal government, as they did just a few months ago, or holding up an overly qualified, remarkably intelligent nominee for the high court, the Republicans care about one thing, and one thing only; stopping all aspects of my agenda, no matter the cost. This is not good governance.”
Thursday, March 16, 2012 - - - Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has been in the process of guiding Judge Diane Wood’s nomination to the Supreme Court through the Untied States Senate. After a disappointing set of hearings, one in which the Appeals Court Judge appeared to state that she opposed any state attempts to limit access to an abortion, including the right to late-term abortions, Republicans were determined to filibuster. Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee Jeff Sessions (R-Al.) was leading the pro-filibuster movement. However, anonymous congressional aids are reporting that Sen. Lindsey Graham’s office is currently leading negotiations between Majority Leader Schumer and Chairmen Sessions. One aid to Sen. Graham told Politico that Sen. Sessions will be advising Republicans not to filibuster the nomination and allow an up or down vote. Apparently, Sen. Graham convinced Sen. Sessions that Judge Wood’s disappointing confirmation hearings, as well as her unpopular positions regarding abortion, would guarantee that less than 50 senators would vote for her confirmation. According to Sen. Graham’s aid, Senators Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, Bob Casey, and Ben Nelson would vote against confirmation (all 4 senators have made public statements indicating such). Mark Warner was considered a toss-up, and had been purposefully vague in public statements regarding Judge Wood. All Republicans (save Olympia Snowe), were expected to vote against confirmation.
Despite Sen. Sessions urging an up or down vote to the Republican Caucus, Senator Jim Demint (R-SC), a known Conservative firebrand and star of the Tea Party movement launched a filibuster of Judge Diane Wood. Soon thereafter, he was joined by Sharon Angle (R-Nv), Marco Rubio (R-Fl.), Joe Miller (R-Ak.), and a host of other Class of 2010 Republican freshmen on the Senate floor. When order was finally reached, the Senate voted 62-34 to end the filibuster of Judge Diane Wood’s nomination. The full Senate vote on her nomination would take place following the Spring recess.
Saturday, March 18, 2012 - - - SEN. MARK WARNER COMES AROUND; PRESIDENT OBAMA ACCEPTS ENDORSEMENT!
Arlington, V.A., 03.18.12. - Former friend, then bitter opponent, now a supporter again, Sen. Mark Warner has announced his endorsement of President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign. Appearing at a rally of 19,000 in Arlington, VA, Sen. Warner argued that the President’s domestic agenda was the only way to sustain and accelerate economic growth:
“The President and I, as if it wasn’t already obvious, don’t agree on everything. But we agree on the basic Democratic tenant of fighting for the middle class. And when unemployment declines for several months in a row, and private sector jobs grow for 6 straight months, that’s economic change that I can get behind! (loud applause)
That’s why I’m proud to endorse President Obama for reelection, and am proud to do everything I can to see him return to Pennsylvania Avenue!” (loud applause)
After suspending his campaign for the presidency on February 14, many in the media speculated that Warner would soon endorse the President. When an endorsement did not follow quickly, many began to wonder if the prominent Senate moderate would withhold an endorsement all together, or worse, endorse the Republican nominee.
“Arguably more than any primary race in recent history, the battle between Barack Obama and Mark Warner was one of not just personality, but of substance,” argued MSNBC’s Chuck Todd.
“Real divisions within the Democratic bases’ views on the economy and the role of government were reappearing, and for a while, Warner almost looked like he would upset the President. So more than the Obama/Clinton battle in 2008, or the Carter/Kennedy battle in 1980, the Obama/Warner battle was one of philosophical substance, not mere method and personality. That’s why it wasn’t hard to envision Warner not endorsing Obama at all. This is a helpful surprise for the Obama campaign. The Palin and Romney camps were salivating at the idea of getting a phone call from Mark Warner.”
Tuesday, March 21, 2012 - - - In anticipation of the upcoming “Final Super Tuesday” contests,
Quinnipiac released a host of polling on the GOP nomination. The polls showed that the Romney campaign’s attempts at planting the “seeds of doubt” in GOP voters regarding a Palin candidacy may be working, though the evidence was far from decisive.
In Oregon:
Who do you support for the GOP nomination for president in 2012? (Quinnipiac University, 3/18-3/20, 650 likely Republican voters; +/-5.0)
Romney - 47 %
Palin - 40 %
Undecided/Someone else - 13 %
In North Carolina:
Who do you support for GOP nomination for president in 2012? (Quinnipiac University, 3/17-3/20, 650 likely Republican voters; +/-5.0)
Palin - 47 %
Romney - 42 %
Undecided/Someone else - 11 %
In Pennsylvania:
Who do you support for the GOP nomination for president in 2012? (Quinnipiac University, 3/17-3/20, 650 likely primary voters; +/-5.0)
Romney - 48 %
Palin - 39 %
Undecided/Someone else - 13 %
In Indiana:
Who do you support for the GOP nomination for president in 2012 (Quinnipiac University, 3/18-3/20, 650 likel primary voters; +/-4.5)
Palin - 47 %
Romney - 46 %
Undecided/someone else - 7 %
.
New
Public Policy Polling surveys on potential general election match-ups also confirmed Republican Party Leaders worst fears; the long, grueling, and expensive primary season had damaged both Republican nominees image with voters. Obama enjoyed one of his largest leads of the election season:
Potential 2012 match-ups (PPP, 3/19-3/20; 1,500 likely voters, national; +/-3%)
Mitt Romney v. Barack Obama: 42 - 48 %
Sarah Palin v. Barack Obama: 41 - 51 %
Upcoming April 10th “Final” Primary States: