2012 Democratic National Convention if McCain Won

What if John McCain and Sarah Palin beat Obama-Biden in 2008? I think the only way the Republicans could win in 2008 is if some major scandal happened in the Obama campaign, affecting the election. Who would be competing in the Democratic National Convention of 2012? I could see Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley, and Lincoln Chafee running, any others?
 
Undoubtedly a lot of Democrats who lost in OTL in 2010 would have won in this ATL, and some of them could have become contenders for the presidential nomination. (Russ Feingold, Ted Strickland, Joe Sestak...) Still, I think that Hillary Clinton would have the advantage because of a widespread belief that "if only we had nominated her, we would have won in 2008." She would also not have a record as Secretary of State to defend. Without judging how well she will do in OTL's 2016, I think she would have been a stronger candidate for the nomination in this alt-2012.
 
Undoubtedly a lot of Democrats who lost in OTL in 2010 would have won in this ATL, and some of them could have become contenders for the presidential nomination. (Russ Feingold, Ted Strickland, Joe Sestak...) Still, I think that Hillary Clinton would have the advantage because of a widespread belief that "if only we had nominated her, we would have won in 2008." She would also not have a record as Secretary of State to defend. Without judging how well she will do in OTL's 2016, I think she would have been a stronger candidate for the nomination in this alt-2012.
Would she even run in 2012? I guess it might depend on how popular McCain was.
 
Would she even run in 2012? I guess it might depend on how popular McCain was.

McCain would likely be an incredibly unpopular President.

He has never been known for his domestic policy chops, and with a very Democratic Congress McCain is unlikely to get much if any parts of his domestic agenda passed through congress.

For instance the McCain economy would be worse, possibly significantly, compared to OTL. While some sort of Stimulus was on course to be passed it would probably be smaller and even more focused on tax cuts. The auto bailouts maybe would have still have happened; McCain waffled on whether or not he supported them in the lead up to the election and came out against them afterwards. Had they not occurred however, which is a real possibility, the economic fallout would had been devastating for many parts of the country.

Financial reform, if passed at all, would pretty light. There's no health-care reform. There isn't a repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell.

Foreign Policy is where some of the major differences would be. McCain is much more of a hawk than Obama. New START likely never gets negotiated or ratified, the Afghanistan Surge could be larger and more prolonged, McCain would likely never withdraw from Iraq. Plus with the Arab Spring mess you have a lot of different outcomes, maybe he intervenes in Syria sooner, we could have ground troops in Libya, etc.

Combine all of this with voter fatigue due to a Republican being in the White House for 12 years.

And icing on the cake; imagine what 4 years of a Palin Vice Presidency would look like.

So yeah, McCain likely isn't a popular President.
 
If the Economy is as bad as it is, if Edwards scandal hasn't popped, I could see him doing very well, Jim Webb potentially- any economic progressive.

The primary would be very bitter and divisive- as each wing of the party would blame the other for losing in 2008.

Also, I think Obama winning the primary would have to be handwaved- the most likely scenario that lets McCain win is Edwards is nominee then the scandal breaks.
 
And icing on the cake; imagine what 4 years of a Palin Vice Presidency would look like.
I was actually going to make this a separate thread but I guess I could ask it now. What if McCain had a different running mate such as Lindsey Graham? I once thought that if McCain won, Graham would have been appointed Secretary of Defense.
 

I was actually going to make this a separate thread but I guess I could ask it now. What if McCain had a different running mate such as Lindsey Graham? I once thought that if McCain won, Graham would have been appointed Secretary of Defense.

I always thought Graham would have been his choice for the Supreme Court. After all, what McCain wanted was a conservative justice who would nevertheless uphold McCain-Feingold.

But Graham as running mate makes no sense--like Palin, he is from a safe Republican state, but unlike Palin he is neither from a group that has traditionally been excluded from consideration (like women), nor does he have any special appeal to social conservatives. His only appeal is to people who are already enthusiastic about McCain.
 
McCain choosing Graham would have been sacrificing a valuable ally in the Senate. Graham is already a Senator, him being VP only makes him president of the Senate. Graham's seat would be vulnerable to Democrats, especially in 2008. A governor such as Mike Huckabee or Tim Pawlenty would have been a better choice. Sarah Palin was ideal because she was both a governor and a woman. Conerning the Democrats, Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden would have instantly become frontrunner had Obama-Biden miraculously lost to McCain-Palin. Hillary Clinton would not have her career as Secretary of State to defend.
 
I agree with a lot of what has been said so far. A lot of people who lost in 2010 OTL will not lose in TTL, and some of them may make presidential runs, however I think the Democratic nomination is Hillary's to lose, more so in TTL than 2016 OTL. As others have said, there is not record as Secretary of State to defend and if Obama loses (narrowly I can't see McCain doing better than Bush in 2004) there's going to be a lot in the party arguing "If only she won the nomination in '08, she'd have beaten McCain." So unless she sits it out, or messes up royally, she's the nominee.

As for the general, she wins and does so in a landslide, especially if McCain sits the 2012 election out. McCain would handle the economy worse than Obama did OTL as domestic policy and economics were never McCain's strong points, and internationally, we wouldn't withdrawal from Iraq, Afghanistan has a bigger surge, and we possibly have a third war in Syria, Iran, or Libya, heck we may even have four. As someone who supported McCain until he picked Palin and the economy collapsed, I'm DAMN glad Obama won in hindsight.
 
Hillary's Running Mate

Would Evan Bayh be Hillary's Running Mate in this timeline, or would she have chosen someone else?
 
Would Evan Bayh be Hillary's Running Mate in this timeline, or would she have chosen someone else?

For a number of reasons, I think Bayh would be a very unlikely choice:

(1) If Bayh would retire from the Senate in 2010 as in OTL there would be a lot of resentment of him for giving up a Senate seat (probably) to the GOP. (Admittedly, if McCain is unpopular enough in 2010--or if as in the 2012 of OTL the Republican candidate says something really damaging--it is just possible the Democrats will retain his seat with another candidate, but I wouldn't bet on it.) If he remained in the Senate and was re-elected, naming him would mean that if the Democratic ticket won, he would have to resign from the Senate and the Republican governor of Indiana would choose his replacement.

(2) Bayh is not that prominent nationally. The only state Bayh would really help with is Indiana, but if Indiana is even close (as in the 2008 of OTL) the national Democratic ticket is sure to win anyway.

(3) Bayh was very unpopular with progressives, who had their doubts about HRC anyway. Yes, they will still probably vote for her but they will not work as energetically.
 
McCain choosing Graham would have been sacrificing a valuable ally in the Senate. Graham is already a Senator, him being VP only makes him president of the Senate. Graham's seat would be vulnerable to Democrats, especially in 2008. A governor such as Mike Huckabee or Tim Pawlenty would have been a better choice. Sarah Palin was ideal because she was both a governor and a woman. Conerning the Democrats, Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden would have instantly become frontrunner had Obama-Biden miraculously lost to McCain-Palin. Hillary Clinton would not have her career as Secretary of State to defend.
Graham's from South Carolina - hardly a vulnerable seat that the Democrats are likely to take.
 
What if John goes with his first instinct and offers the veep spot to Joe Lieberman?

Yes, Lieberman is generally pro-choice, and the social conservative blogsphere might race full ahead with (future) plans to form a third party. John still brings his mother to the Convention and is matter-of-fact that he comes from a long-lived family. Come election day, given the alternatives including merely staying home, I think many social conservatives might find a way to pull the lever for John McCain.

I think one state[five states]* had a law that both candidates had to be from the same party. Well, contest it. Might win in court. Plus, what's the time table for being from the same party? Gives you some underdog credentials. And, at the end of the day, it's just one state.

*I made a mistake. It looks like it's actually five states. https://www.nashvillepost.com/archive/200904?page=69
 
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What if John goes with his first instinct and offers the veep spot to Joe Lieberman?

Yes, Lieberman is generally pro-choice, and the social conservative blogsphere might race full ahead with (future) plans to form a third party. John still brings his mother to the Convention and is matter-of-fact that he comes from a long-lived family. Come election day, given the alternatives including merely staying home, I think many social conservatives might find a way to pull the lever for John McCain.

I think one state had a law that both candidates had to be from the same party. Well, contest it. Might win in court. Plus, what's the time table for being from the same party? Gives you some underdog credentials. And, at the end of the day, it's just one state.

I think Lieberman would hurt McCain more than helping him. He needed a conservative, as conservatives already had a lot of reservations about him already, picking a pro choice, anti DADT former Democrat to be his running mate would cause him to lose a lot of support with the Republican base. It may sway some independents over at first, but come the economic collapse, they'll all go to Obama, so with that and with even less conservative turn out, McCain possibly does even worse than OTL.
 
I'm more in favor of a presidential candidate picking someone a lot like themselves who they feel they can work with. In fact,

Obama asking Biden,

Bush asking Cheney,

Clinton asking Gore,

I'd say this is what the last couple of presidents have done.
 
Doesn't McCain have a reputation as an on-the-ball Senator who provides solid oversight on defense companies?

So, in '08 he references this without overselling, this broad middle path, and he talks about changing this situation of banks 'too big to fail.'
 

TinyTartar

Banned
I'm more in favor of a presidential candidate picking someone a lot like themselves who they feel they can work with. In fact,

Obama asking Biden,

Bush asking Cheney,

Clinton asking Gore,

I'd say this is what the last couple of presidents have done.

The Cheney pick for Bush was due to the fact that Cheney was experienced in national politics and policymaking, while Bush was a popular governor of a red state but had to deal with the baggage of his last name among conservatives. Ideologically, there were big time differences between the two of them.

I always felt that the Biden pick was Obama reaching out to the party after an ugly primary fight with the party's initial favorite, as well as a way to show some foreign policy chops.

Gore and Clinton however did seem pretty damn similar, at least in private, while their public personas may have differed.
 
As far as the possibility, or non-possibility, of McCain picking Lieberman, according to Republican lawyer Culvahouse, the ticket may have run into problems in five states.

Plus, even by flashing the ace of a convention revolt, the delegates did kind of hold veto power and a trump card.

https://www.nashvillepost.com/archive/200904?page=69

“Five states have sore loser statutes … [making] it very difficult for someone who’s not a member of the Republican Party to become the vice presidential nominee if they only switch parties to become a Republican shortly before the convention,’ Culvahouse said in public remarks at the Republican National Lawyers Association annual meeting aired on C-SPAN.
 
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