2011 Iran assassination plot works?

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So what if this happens? So the Saudi ambassador at Washington, Adel al-Jubeir, is bombed at a restaurant. Presumably Americans (and maybe non-Americans) in the restaurant are killed as well.

What next? Is there enough evidence for Iranian involvement? What does Obama do?
 
What next? Is there enough evidence for Iranian involvement? What does Obama do?

Nothing Obama wants a nuclear deal with Iran at all costs by this point and without Iranian agents in DC captured with papers linking back to Tehran with the Ayatollah signature on them it will be passed off as someone else.
 
The US might blame Iran, but I haven't seen any evidence linking them. Experts like Robert Baer didn't seem very convinced, frankly the plan sounds stupid.

Following reports of an attempt by Iranian agents to assassinate the ambassador of Saudi Arabia to the United States, Baer told Die Zeit that he doubted that Iran was behind the attempt since there seemed no obvious motive and Iran had been more careful in past collaboration with terrorists.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Baer#Saudi_ambassador
 

TinyTartar

Banned
This was one of the more baffling events I can remember. It seems so far fetched, yet most members of both parties in Congress and a wide section of the government, including the President and Vice President, seem convinced that this was an Iranian operation.

Lets say that it was legit and the Saudi ambassador is blown up. Iran of course denies responsibility, but this is proven to be bullshit somehow. In that case, its an act of war. We do have protocols in place and military plans for dealing with Iran.

I think Obama tries to deescalate as quickly as possible. While Iran may not be able to close the straits, they can play hell with global oil prices. There is no way to occupy Iran in totality, and the Pentagon has ruled it out of most warplans from what I have heard. Obama and the Saudis demand reparations and an apology, and probably add more sanctions. The Iranians, who are more interested in self preservation than we give them credit for, agree but in a way that allows them to save face.
 

ThePest179

Banned
Nothing Obama wants a nuclear deal with Iran at all costs by this point and without Iranian agents in DC captured with papers linking back to Tehran with the Ayatollah signature on them it will be passed off as someone else.

You do realize how batshit insane that sounds, right?

If Obama did absolutely nothing, and the operation was proved to be without a reasonable doubt to be Iranian, then he would lose 2012 pretty badly and give the Democrats a bad name at least a few years after the event.
 
You do realize how batshit insane that sounds, right?

If Obama did absolutely nothing, and the operation was proved to be without a reasonable doubt to be Iranian, then he would lose 2012 pretty badly and give the Democrats a bad name at least a few years after the event.

I just said they would blame someone else as in rogue Hezbollah members not the Iranian leadership in public short of the Ayatollah having a written letter ordering captured along with IRGC operatives in Washington.

Basically, you would have to have the kind of proof the Mullahs if they did order it would never give you otherwise it will end up being blamed on Hezbollah or one of Iran's proxies or some rogue agent. Iran might take some heat, but in the end I don't see war with Iran coming out of it or even a new Cold War with Iran.

If they were suddenly stone stupid enough to give you undeniable proof of the Ayatollah's responsibility then the thawing of relations between the WH and Iran turns into a new Cold War between the two. It would likely get the WH to rethink their zero option for Iraq and leave trainers and advisers behind and for them to declare they don't count as troops as they decided later to do in 2014.

Probably not much more then that though given the WH was running on a very isolationist platform in 2011/2012 of I am getting you out of the Middle East... the argument was with Bin Laden dead what is left is only a Sunni/Shia squabble we should have no part of.
 
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TinyTartar

Banned
You do realize how batshit insane that sounds, right?

If Obama did absolutely nothing, and the operation was proved to be without a reasonable doubt to be Iranian, then he would lose 2012 pretty badly and give the Democrats a bad name at least a few years after the event.

It is damn near impossible to prove it beyond a reasonable doubt, though. For once, the government is the one who seemed to have the tinfoil hats on.

Even if it was certainly an Iranian op, and I do think that its possible that it was, Western Europe would give no shits, Canada and Britain would reluctantly back us with private statements of "Do we have to?", the Iranians would deny deny deny, the Saudis would be screaming for blood, Iraq, which we would be pulling out from at this point, would ignite in sectarian strife once more, and things would go apeshit in general.

Obama was thinking of his reelection. Foreign policy hawkishness was not popular at this point, and a military confrontation with Iran would not have a conclusive positive end, but rather would throw the Middle East into chaos it cannot afford with the Arab Spring going on, and radicalize Iran into more of a pariah state.

I am absolutely convinced that even if the government knew for a fact that Iran was responsible, and they succeeded, Obama would do nothing because it was politically expedient, and he would not be punished for it at the ballot box.
 
It is damn near impossible to prove it beyond a reasonable doubt, though. For once, the government is the one who seemed to have the tinfoil hats on.

Even if it was certainly an Iranian op, and I do think that its possible that it was, Western Europe would give no shits, Canada and Britain would reluctantly back us with private statements of "Do we have to?", the Iranians would deny deny deny, the Saudis would be screaming for blood, Iraq, which we would be pulling out from at this point, would ignite in sectarian strife once more, and things would go apeshit in general.

Obama was thinking of his reelection. Foreign policy hawkishness was not popular at this point, and a military confrontation with Iran would not have a conclusive positive end, but rather would throw the Middle East into chaos it cannot afford with the Arab Spring going on, and radicalize Iran into more of a pariah state.

I am absolutely convinced that even if the government knew for a fact that Iran was responsible, and they succeeded, Obama would do nothing because it was politically expedient, and he would not be punished for it at the ballot box.

I would agree if it was say the Saudi ambassador killed and say 2-3 Americans as so called 'collateral damage'. It would create a tut tut don't let your Sunni/Shia conflict spill out onto us.

Now if we are talking about dozens of dead Americans and undeniable proof of the involvement of the highest levels of the Iranian leadership that you would never get, but lets say you got it.

That might convince Obama that we have to still help contain Iran something he was at this point in time giving up on and scuttle his hopes of a second term Iranian nuclear deal, but I don't see it changing much more then that.
 
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