2010 US Presidential Election

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Marky Bunny

We have two states left to call on the Republican side that's Delaware and Massachusetts, whilst with the Democrats it's also Massachusetts along with Missouri.
We understand recounts are underway in all these races.
Delaware on the GOP side is a three way fight, although with the returns we are seeing it's a virtual dead heat between Shallick and Gault with Durham a small way behind.
In Massachusetts this is a real close race as well this time between Shallick and Durham, Durham hoping for at a least a single win to make up for the disappointment of losing his home state to Shallick.

The Democrat races in Massachusetts and Missouri are as equally close, but are genuine three way races, and in both races it looks like only a couple of thousand votes are separating all three candidates.

Without these 4 races, 2 each here is how the delegates stack up:
Republican
Shallick has won 566 delegates
Gault has won 603 delegates
Durham has not won any delgates so far
Yet to declare: Delaware (18 delegates) & Massachusetts (43 delegates)
Democrat
Thorn has won 1,000 delegates
Seaborn has won 1,081 delegates
Robinson has not win any delegates so far
Yet to declare: Massachusetts (121 delegates) & Missouri (88 delegates)
 

Marky Bunny

We are now ready to make calls in the two races in Massachusetts.

We are able to call the Democratic race and it's 121 delegates for Indiana Senator Rudi Robinson, this is his first win of the primary campaign. The popular vote looks to be around 1,100 votes over Senator Thorn with Senator Seaborn just 400 or so votes behind him. It does look like out over 1.5 million votes cast, only around 1,500 votes separated the three Senators.

It has been an equally close fought affair on the Republican side, between Henry Shallick and William Durham, but we can now call the race for Congressman Durham, it is also his first win of the primary season, the margin likely to be around 1,800 votes. This win gives Durham the states 43 delegates.

We are still watching the returns coming out of Delaware and Missouri, for the two outstanding results but we not yet about make a projection in either of these two races yet.
 

Marky Bunny

NBS is now ready to call the final state from "Super -Dupa" Tuesday on the Republican side.

We can call Delaware and it's 18 delegates for Henry Shallick he has looks to have won by 374 votes from Peter Gault a margin of around 0.50%.

That leaves the Republican race like this for yesterday:

  1. Henry Shallick 5,822,944 44.63% 584 Delegates 9 states won (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York)
  2. Peter Gault 4,165,135 31.92% 603 Delegates 15 states (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming)
  3. William Durham 3,059,500 23.45% 43 Delegates 1 state (Massachusetts)
Total Vote: 13,047,579
Pop Vote Margin: Shallick over Gault: 1,657,809 votes
% Margin: Shallick over Gault: 12.71%
Delegates: Gault won 19 more Delegates than Shallick
 

Marky Bunny

Here is our "Super-Dupa" Tuesday Map for the Republicans
genusmap.php

Shallick
Gault
Durham
 

Marky Bunny

Here is the state of the Republican race overall
1,281 Delegates are required for the Republican Presidential Nomination
  1. Henry Shallick 8,035,000 44.16% 828 Delegates 13 states won (NH, Michigan, Nevada, Florida, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York)
  2. Peter Gault 5,941,455 32.66% 693 Delegates 17 states won (Iowa, South Carolina,Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming)
  3. William Durham 4,118,494 22.64% 43 Delegates 1 state won (Massachusetts)
  4. Elizabeth Clark 96,228 0.54% 0 Delegates (Dropped out of the race on Sunday Jan 14th)
Total Vote: 18,191,177
Pop Vote Margin: Shallick over Gault: 2,093,545
% Vote Margin: Shallick over Gault: 11.5%
Delegates: Shallick has a lead of 135 Delegates
Shallick requires 453 delegates to win the nomination
Gault requires 588 delegates to win the nomination
Durham requires 1,238 delegates to win the nomination (Durham cannot win the nomination outright as the total number he requires is more than the total number of delegates left)
Total Number of Delegates left: 996
Here is a Map of all of the results so far
genusmap.php

Shallick
Gault
Durham
 
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Marky Bunny

We can now make the final call from the 2018 "Super-Dupa Tuesday", and the state of Missouri for the Democrats.

This final result has just been called by the state party and the winner from a remarkable three way fight is that Senator Rudi Robinson has his second win, he has carried the state by a mere 204 votes from Senator Seaborn, with Senator Thorn just 2,477 votes behind Seaborn, a total of 2,681 votes between the three men.

(The full results of the democratic Super-Tuesday elections, and the overall state of the Democratic race will be posted shortly, hopefully later if not by the end of tomorrow).
 

Marky Bunny

Sorry for the slight delay...

Here is how "Super-Dupa Tuesday" ended up for the Democrats.
  1. Sam Seaborn 7,542,677 40.46% 1,081 Delegates 10 states won (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado,Idaho, Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming)
  2. Andrew Thorn 7,338,634 39.36% 1,000 Delegates 13 states won (Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Kansas, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia)
  3. Rudi Robinson 3,761,786 20.18% 209 Delegates 2 states won (Massachusetts, Missouri)
Total Vote: 18,643,097
Pop Vote Margin: Seaborn over Thorn: 204,043 votes
% Margin: 1.09%
Delegate Margin: Seaborn won 81 more Delegates than Thorn
 

Marky Bunny

Here is the state of the Democratic race overall:
2,358 Delagates are required for the Democratic Presidential Nomination
  1. Sam Seaborn 8,726,432 38.31% 1,402 Delegates 13 states won (New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, , Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming)
  2. Andrew Thorn 8,616,672 37.82% 1,272 Delegates 16 states won (Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Kansas, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia)
  3. Rudi Robinson 4,400,026 19.51% 209 Delegates 2 states won (Massachusetts, Missouri)
  4. Michael Kellner 618,085 2.71% 0 Delegates
  5. Paris Stray 405,354 1.78% 0 Delegates
  6. Kurt Carner 12,335 0.05% 0 Delegates
  7. Scott Bighorse 1,859 0.01% 0 Delegates
Total Vote: 22,780,763
Pop Vote Margin: Seaborn over Thorn: 109,760 votes
% Margin: 0.49%
Delegates: Seaborn has a lead over Thorn of 130 Delegates
Seaborn requires 956 delegates for the nomination
Thorn requires 1,086 delegates for the nomination
Robinson requires 2,149 delegates for the nomination (Robinson cannot win the nomination outright as the total number he requires is more than the total number of delegates left)
Total Number of Delegates left: 1,853

Here is a Map of all of the results so far
genusmap.php

Seaborn
Thorn
Robinson
 
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Pastor Dean

Not really a reply, but a question that is most definitely off the subject just a bit...

It's been almost 4 years since Liz Bartlet won the Governor's race in NH. Any reports on how she has done in her first term as Governor? (Have I missed any reports on her seeking a second term in office?)

and,

How far-fetched would it be to consider any possibility of a Seaborn-Bartlet Democratic ticket in the general election, if Sam prevails in the primaries and wins the nomination at the convention? One last grasp at putting the WW "old-guard" group from the original cast back together somehow, with Josh, CJ, Charlie Young, and others serving if Sam is somehow elected President?

Just some thoughts...

Nice job on the primary elections from Tuesday.
 

Marky Bunny

TWWFan said:
nbs.com
10 February 2018

President Bartlet: "Proud of Sam"

In a rare interview, former President Josiah Bartlet spoke about his pride in his former protégé, Senator Sam Seaborn.

"Sam risked his political career by running in Orange County back in 2002. For him to be able to compete in a primary for President of the United States is a testament to his character and perseverance."

President Bartlet also spoke about the challenges of living with multiple sclerosis (MS), especially after a relapse almost 8 years ago that left him blind in one eye and weakened on one side of his body. He was diagnosed before he became president, but controversially did not reveal his status until his first term was almost over.

"It's difficult, but I'm still able to spend time with my grandchildren, and Abbey takes good care of me."

Senator Seaborn served as Deputy Communications Director under Bartlet from 1998 to 2002, resigning to fill the seat Horton Wilde was posthumously elected to on the same night Bartlet secured reelection in a landslide over Governor Robert Ritchie. He was defeated, but his political career was revitalized when he was handpicked by Josh Lyman to serve as White House Deputy Chief of Staff under President Santos, a position he held for 2 years.
Click to expand...

Sorry but as Eric has correctly pointed out President Bartlet passed away on Wednesday December 4th 2013, we had a big Presidential funeral and everything. Please can I ask you kindly to remove the post. I don't mind people posting but please check what has been done, if you are not sure, just ask.
Have linked to the page regarding President Bartlet's death.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/2010-us-presidential-election.109942/page-350
 
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Marky Bunny

upload_2017-2-8_14-55-36-png.307359

Sunday February 11th 2018

Seaborn extends delegate lead as he sweeps four of the five states on "Mini Saturday"
Republicans could be heading towards a deadlocked convention as Durham wins two states

Although Senator Seaborn carried more delegates last Tuesday that his main rival it was not the big victory he was hoping for, but last night's results have extended his lead in the delegate count, and now leads by 334 delegates over Senator Thorn and is now just 694 delegates short of the nomination. Seaborn won Hawaii, Maine, Washington by decent margins whilst carrying Wisconsin by just under 1,000 votes from Senator Thorn.

Despite these victories, Seaborn did go down to a blowout defeat in Louisiana, with Senator Thorn winning with 75% of the popular vote. With Potomac Tuesday only two days away, and Senator Seaborn continuing to perform poorly with African-American voters that fact gives hope for Senator Thorn, but at the same time, after having failed to win the key battleground states of Illinois, Missouri and Massachusetts on Super Tuesday, as well as Washington and Wisconsin last night Senator Thorn will need a very strong performance Tuesday in DC, Maryland and Virginia If he doesn't win at least two of the contests, it could very well be the end of his campaign.

On the Republican side the race to be the party standard bearer is on the verge for descending into deadlock. Governor Gault carried as expected Louisiana but more of a shock was his surprise win in Wisconsin although it was helped once again by a high turn out of the evangelical vote. Those two wins have narrowed the gap in terms of delegates between Gault and the front-runner Henry Shallick to just 66 delegates who suffered two shock defeats to Congressman William Durham, who built on his surprise win last Tuesday in Massachusetts by carrying Maine and Washington which now gives him 110 delegates. Durham also came within 660 votes of denying Governor Shallick any delegates at all, but he did manage to hold on and carry Hawaii.
 
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