2010 US Presidential Election

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Yeah.... it was a rhetorical question actually...... :D And I realise Major was approached and turned it down; pity, as a Major fan, I'd have liked him to take the offer.

And yes, I expect the NPP to put up a candidate, but probably a little closer to the poll, as they don't have a primary to conduct.
I have just printed off the results and background of our real London Mayoral elections for Info so will post some background to the 1998,2002, and 2006 elections with results.
How popular is Fox, it could be a very close election.
1998 London Mayoral Election
The first election for the office of Mayor of London Took place on Thursday May 7th 1998.
The position had been created as one of the first acts passed by the new Meyer Government in 1996.
The Labour Party Candidate was Ben Stanley, Former Leader of Harrow Council during the 1980's and since 1987 MP for Harrow East. He had ran for the Labour Leadership against Meyer in 1992 and had lost by a heavy margin. Despite the Leadership attempting to get another candidate to stand against Stanley they couldn;t and he was formally adopted as the Candidate in September 1997.
The Conservatives under new Leader Maureen Graty supported the creation of the post of Mayor and the new London Assembly. They wanted someone not tainted by the Reed Government so they turned to maverick back-bench MP for Croydon Central, Colin Noble. Outspoken and honest, he had been called every "Labour voters favourite Tory". He been sacked by Reed from a Junior Ministral post in 1995, but was a close friend of Graty and had run her successful leadership campaign during the summer of 1996.
The Lib Dems selected the then Leader of Merton Council Debbie Harvey.
Despite the strong lead nationally by Labour in the polls, the Mayoral election was a different affair. It was called by the media "Britians First Presidential election". Both Major candidates where maverick in nation, and clearly outspoken and both provided plenty of colour to the race.
Most polls showed Stanley on around 43% and Noble on 35%, but in the last week the race narrowed after Stanley called for "Good old-fashioned, Tory hating" which didn't go down with Meyer who had corted the Middle-class to win the 1996 General election. Noble also upset many with the remark "I hope everyone votes for me even those coloured people in Southall".
The first round of voting was much closer than expected, with Stanley leading Noble by just 32,346 votes (40.4% to 38.5%). The second Pref votes saw Stanley gaining 199,807 votes to Noble's 182,342 making him the first elected Mayor of London by 60,441 votes (52.2% to 48.6%).
Final Vote Results
1ST Pref Votes
Ben Stanley Lab 688,318 40.4%
Colin Noble Con 655,972 38.5%
Debbie Harvey Lib 250,179 14.7%
James Davision Green 43,951 2.5%
Richard Hemmings NPP 35,204 2%
Alexander Hedges NDP 17,830 1.5%
Rishi Manwali SWP 8,109 0.4%
2ND Pref Votes
Ben Stanley Lab 199,807 11.7%
Colin Noble Con 182,342 10.1%
Final Result
Ben Stanley Lab 888,125 52.2%
Colin Noble Con 827,684 48.6%
Pop Vote Margin: 60,441
% Margin: 3.6%
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2002 London Mayoral Election
The election was pretty much a re-run of four years before, between Stanley and Noble.
Stanley was starting to become a thorn in the side of the Meyer Government, and many wanted him de-selcted although he survived the vote in September 2001. On the Conservative side many did not want Noble to run again, and the Party asked out-spoken Radio and Newspaper Broadcaster Andrew Hardcastle if he would run. Noble gave his support to him, but in October 2001, Hardcastle decided against running, and so Noble was selected again.
The Lib Dems picked former Deputy Leader, Foreign Affairs Spokesman, and Greenwich MP, Hugh Simons.
As stated abaove it was almost a complete re-run of 1998. On the First Pref votes, Stanley led Noble by 55,418 votes (40% to 36.2%). On the Second Pref votes, only 1,412 votes sepreted them with Noble getting 238,995 to Stanley's 240,407, making the final popular vote victory for Stanley of 53.8 % to Noble's 50.4%.
1st Pref Votes
Ben Stanley lab 665,145 40%
Colin Noble Con 609,727 36.2%
Hugh Simons Lib Dem 296,300 17.6%
James Davison Green 41,419 2.6%
Craig Porter NPP 38,607 2.3%
Bryan Fairclough NDP 18,208 1%
Rachel Hurst SWP 2,572 0.3%
2nd Pref Votes
Ben Stanley 240,407 13.8%
Colin Noble 238, 995 14.2%
Final Result
Ben Stanley 905,552 53.8%
Colin Noble 848, 722 50.4%
Pop Vote Margin: 56,830
% Margin: 3.4%
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CNN.COM Monday November 2nd 2009
Fuller to have three days of debate camp
George Fuller whose campaign has got up and running this weekend, with trips to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, will cris-cross the country to California, taking in Alabama, Texas, Colorado and Oregon, beore flying back to the East coast late on Thursday for three days of prep, at a house owned by his company Hawkpublishing, just outside Boston. He will then fly down to New York Sunday afternoon for the debate.
Fuller clearly feels he needs the extra-time to prepare for his first debate, with Walken, Sullivan, Alexander, Haffley and Skinner all taking part in the previous three debates, and Marcus Blakemore in two of them.
Campaign Press Secretary Adrian Pegg told reporters at a campaign stop in De Monies, Iowa on Saturday
"The Senator will be having a full schedule of events in many states, before three days getting ready for the debate on Sunday evening. He is looking foward to it, and to show the American people, his ideas and vision for a new America".
Fuller clearly needs to make a large impact at the deabte, and his clearly showing that he is ready for the debate. A poor performance could doom his bid before it has even started, a strong one could give the lift his campaign needs after entering the race so late.
townhall.com, Monday November 2nd

Sullivan Condemns Attack On Fuller

Governor Ray Sullivan last night condemned an attack on former Senator George Fuller by his former Lieutenant Governor Lonnie Wilmer.

Wilmer, told a local newspaper reporter that he found it “fanciful” that Fuller wanted to be President as he was “far too old” and that he felt that a “71 year old man should be enjoying his retirement, not being handed the nuclear launch codes.”

The Fuller campaign quickly called for an apology from Wilmer which has thus far not been forthcoming. Sullivan, the 2006 Vice-Presidential nominee, addressed the issue whilst talking to press during a flight from West Virginia to New Hampshire this morning.

Sullivan said “Lonnie Wilmer and I have disagreed on many things over the years so this doesn’t exactly come as a great surprise. Senator Fuller has served this country for many, many years. He’s seen many problems and challenges and has a long history in public life – that should be respected not derided. As far as I am concerned if Senator Fuller is mentally and physically capable of running for President then it’s not for anyone else to say that he can’t. It doesn’t say anywhere in the constitution that a 71 year old man can’t be President.”

Wilmer, who is believed to be preparing to run for Governor in 2012 is maintaining her silence thus far.
politico.com, Monday November 2nd

Walken Back On The Campaign Trail, Hits Santos On Jobless Figures

Presidential hopeful Glen Walken returned to the campaign trail over the weekend stumping for Virginia Gubernatorial candidate Rob Buchanan in Fredrickburg and Richmond.

Walken took the chance to attack President Santos over jobless numbers following the news last week that the US economy had moved past the dreaded 10% unemployed figure.

“The President’s been telling us for months that things are getting better. He’s telling us that better times are coming, yet the unemployment numbers keep rising, how can this be? On behalf of the American people I’m asking – Where are the jobs? I’ve said all along that we need a program of tax cuts for small business and we need it now. I have promised $15billion in small business tax cuts – we need to hear why the President won’t implement something similar.”

The former acting President also took the opportunity to laugh off concerns about his health “Running for President is a difficult business. I’d love to campaign non-stop for two years without picking up a cold or an illness but that’s not really realistic. I spent the last few days with my wife, daughter and two grand children and I can assure you all I feel fine.”
2006 London Mayoral Election
The 2006 election took place in a much changed political climate.
After his second narrow win in 2002, Stanley had become increasily un-popular with the Party Leadership. In May 2003 he been forced to take back remarks following the Zoe Bartlet kidnapping saying the President "had brought the affair on himself". In December 2003 he backed a week long strike by local Government workers across all London Boroughs. This strike was seen as a factor in the defeat of the Meyer Government in the May 2004 General election, and its replacement by the minority Graty adminstration.
It was in-fact Meyers defeat and his downfall after the election that sealed Stanley's own fate two years later. After Meyers regisnation as Labour Leader, the two clear front runners where Former Foreign Secretary John Green and Former Health and Home Secretary Gerald Fox, the MP for Hammersmith. In what was latter dubbed by the press "The Shepherds Bush Meal Deal" , the two men met at Fox's home in Shepherds Bush and over a meal it was agreed that in return for Fox not running for the leadership, Green agreed to help stop Stanley getting the Mayoral nomination in 2006, and support Fox. This has never been proved, but it remains of much speculation even five years later.
Despite improvments in the capitial, such as falling crime figures, and on the underground and buses, Stanley remained his own worst enemy. He refused every inventation from Prime-Minister Graty for joint support for London's bid for the 2012 Olympic games, it was agreed by most people that his attuide helped Paris win the games.
The final straw for the Labour leadership came when he attacked the 2005 Camp David Peace Accord, which Leader of the Oppostion Green openly supported, calling it "a sell-out for the Palestinians ".
In October 2005, he was formally de-slected and Fox selected as the Labour candidate for Mayor. Stanley despite large support from grass roots supporters declined to run as an independant, partly because he feared he would spilit the Labour vote and let in the Conservative candidate. He was even offered the nomination of the Socialist Labour Party but he declined it vowing to return to Parliament. He won the nomination for the Battersea seat following the retirement of Malcolm Sinton. On election night in June 2007, defending Sinton's majority of 3,000 he lost by 356 votes. It was one of the few bright spots on a bad night for the Conservatives.
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2006 Mayoral Election
Colin Noble made it clear after his second defeat in 2002, he had no intention running for a third time in 2006.
The man many in the Party and Conservative voters in general wanted to run was Reed Cabinet Member, former Education Secretary, Martin Parkinson, the former MP for Barnet East, who had famously lost his seat at the 1996 election by just eight votes. He had refused a return to the party, turning down offers of safe seats, prefaring his new career as a TV and Radio chat show host and thriller writer. Parkinson was offered the nomination three times during the summer of 2005, but he turned it down each time.
By November 2005, there was still no nominee. Francis Crouch, Leader of the Party in the London Assembly turned it down, as did Charlie Billings, Leader of Wandsworth Council and Linda Robins, Former MP for Uxbridge.
Finally they turned to businessman Alan Doyle. Doyle had no poltical experiance, and had made his money from a string of internet cafes through-out the capital, he wasn't even a party member until three weeks before becoming the candidate in December 2005. A photo of him shaking hands with Former Prime-Minister Meyer from 2001, at a charity Dinner soon found it's way onto the internet. Only 41, he was in his third marriage, and had a play-boy reputation. He was a novice and was to be shown way out of his depth.
Liberal Democrats
Of the three major parties, the Liberals nomination was straight foward. They picked Sutton MP, Chris Payne 48, a former Soilder who ahd served in the Falklands and Northern Ireland.
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washingtonpost.com, Tuesday November 3rd

Polls Open In Virginia

Polls opened at 6am this morning in Virginia to elect a new governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and House of Delegates. They will remain open until 7pm tonight.

Polls show an extremely close race, with Republican candidate Congressman Rob Buchanan hoping to return the GOP to the Governor’s mansion for the first time since 2001. With current Governor Mark Renton’s time in office the Republican’s are hungry for some electoral success in the Old Dominion.

"The dynamics are that the party out of power is energized," said Harry Jamieson, a political analyst at Political Associates Inc. "I have a sense that this electorate is going to be so disproportionately Republican. I think that gives Congressman Buchanan a very strong chance.”

Buchanan, 46, the Congressman for Virginia’s tenth district and a fiscal conservative, has emphasized bread-and-butter issues, including jobs, taxes and road improvements as well as linking his opponent, former Secretary of Defense Miles Hutchison with the failures of President Santos.

For his part Hutchison has run a strong campaign based around the idea that Virginia needs a Governor who can represent them nationally and that his experience as a Congressman and running the Pentagon gives him vast executive experience and that that is the key issue in this race.

Hutchison is hoping that he will see a positive impact from joint appearances over the weekend with former President Jed Bartlet and his wife Abby.
NJ Star-Ledger, Tuesday November 3rd

New Jersey Polls Open

Forecasters are predicting a clear day and moderate temperatures today as polls open in New Jersey's gubernatorial race, and political experts say the comfortable conditions could help the incumbent Democrat secure four more years in office.

“Better weather generally favors the Democrats. Urban centers are where the Democratic support is strongest and that it’s there that weather has the most impact," Helena Spurr, a professor in political science, said.

Recent polls show incumbent Goveror John Treyman trailing GOP candidate Dan Pritchard, the current Attorney General by a narrow margin. Both candidates stumped throughout the state this weekend, trying to secure every possible vote in the campaign's final hours.

While the sunshine seems to give Treyman a helping hand, Spurr added that it was unclear whether it would have sufficient impact to offset the current dissatisfaction with Governor Treyman.
The 2006 London Mayoral Election
During the campaign it was clear that Fox was going to win, it was just a case of if he could win without the need for the second pref votes.
Doyle was a diaster of the Conservatives, a poor public speaker, not helped by a serious of gaffs on the campaign trail, including admitting he didn't know the names of the London Boroughs "Battersea, I think is one", infact Battersea had not been a Borough since 1965, when it was merged into the Borough of Wandsworth.
Fox just failed to win outright after the first count, he polled 1,103987 votes to Doyle's 753,877 (46.7% to 31.9%), with Payne getting 324,453 votes (13.7%). Doyle did do better after the counting of the second pref votes gaining a further 315,651 votes to Fox's 237,145 (13.3% to 10.3%) giving Fox a large margin in the popular vote 271,604 votes, (57% to 45.2%), a margin of 11.8%.
1st Pref Votes
Gerald Fox Lab 1,103987 46.7%
Alan Doyle Con 753,877 31.9%
Chris Payne Lib Dem 324,53 13.7%
Arthur Brooks NPP 80,240 3.3%
Roxanne Daniels Green 43,743 1.8%
Jamie Lambert NDP 31,902 1.1%
Toby Steele Soc Lab 20,908 0.8%
Adam Cooke SBA 3,002 0.1%
2nd Pref Votes
Gerald Fox Lab 237,145 10.3%
Alan Doyle Con 315,651 13.3%
Final Result
Gerald Fox Lab 1,341,132 57%
Alan Doyle Con 1,069,528 45.2%
Pop Vote Margin 271,604
% Vote Margin 11.8%
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politico.com, Wednesday November 4th

GOP Sweeps Gubernatorial Races, New York Mayor Race “Too Close To Call”

In what some are already painting as a disastrous night for Democrats the Republican candidates for in Virginia and New Jersey appear to have won key races for Governor.

With almost all of the votes counted in Virginia, Congressman Robert Buchanan has edged out former Secretary of Defense Miles Hutchison by a narrow margin. Hutchison, is yet to concede with rumors ongoing about a potential recount request from the Democrats.

In New Jersey former State Senator Dan Pritchard has won a more convincing victory surprising many with what appears to be a 5 point victory in what has been a traditionally blue state. Incumbent Governor John Treyman conceded early this morning when it became clear he would not secure re-election.

Pritchard took the opportunity in his acceptance speech to ask for patience in turning around New Jersey’s flailing economy and asked for public servants on both sides of the aisles to put the bitter campaign behind them and work together for the good of the state.

The third major race of the race – that of New York Mayor remains too close to call. Republican candidate Jesse Crase who has been polling well behind Democratic incumbent Damon Piccoli seems to have experienced a late surge in support and many analysts are now saying that the race is too close to call.

Nationally, Republicans were quick to jump on the victories. Alison Marshall, the Chairman of the Republican Governor’s Association called the results “A strong message that the American people are sick of the government’s spectacular overreach into peoples lives.” She was joined by RNC Chairman Mack MacKinlay who called the results “Fantastic” and suggested that the result in New Jersey showed that “even traditional blue states are hearing our message of fiscal responsibility and smaller government and liking what they hear.”

The White House already played down the impact of these results with spokeswoman Maria Lopez saying “The elections were not a reflection on the President but on local issues and candidates.” Asked whether President Santos was paying any attention the races Lopez said “No, he’s not watching the returns, he’ll be preparing for another day of governing tomorrow.”

In spite of this many Democratic analyst have suggested the White House will be extremely alarmed according to prominent strategist Bruno Gianelli “After the losses of years mid terms this will be taken as another downward trend by many in the party and the country as a whole.”
Mayor of London- Gerald Fox

Former Mayor of London Ben Stanley

Conservative Mayoral Candidate in 1998 & 2002 Colin Noble

2006 Conservative Mayoral Candidate Alan Doyle
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foxnews.com, Wednesday November 4th

Hutchison Challenges Virginia Result

24 hours after the announcement that Congressman Robert Buchanan had won the office of Governor of Virginia, his opponent Miles Hutchison has announced that he will seek a formal recount of votes in an attempt to overturn the 2,384 vote margin attained by Buchanan.

Hutchison, speaking outside his campaign headquarters in Richmond, said “We believe there to be at least 20,000 ballots which have been counted incorrectly in at least three districts. As such we are pursing our right to request a recount.”

Buchanan, who gave his acceptance on Tuesday night, responded through a spokesman who said “Of course it is Secretary Hutchison’s right to ask for a recount, we will support it in whatever way required. We feel looking at the claims that if there are any uncounted ballots that they will simply confirm the Congressman Buchanan is the rightful Governor of Virginia.”
politico.com, Thursday November 5th

Lopez: Results Not A Reflection On Administration

White House Press Secretary Maria Lopez used her White House briefing to strongly dispute that the apparent Republican clean sweep of the three key elections on Tuesday night marked the results of a referendum on the Santos administration.

“Firstly, it seems clear that the Virginia result is still in dispute. Beyond that it was clear that all three elections were fought on local issues, not national ones. The President is focusing on dealing with the major challenges that our nation faces, not getting sidetracked by gubernatorial elections results.”

In spite of the strong denial sources in the White House are speculating that these results will strengthen the hand of White Chief of Staff Nate Singer and Vice-President Tripplehorn who are both pushing for a strong move towards the centre ahead of next years general election. This is believed to be in contrast to the long held view of other key advisors such as Mitch Bryce who are pushing for the President to hold his current course and not be deflected by events.

With the announcement last night by Miles Hutchison that he is to contest the result of the initial count in Virginia, the White House will be hoping that they may be able to turn around the results to present a far more positive picture after a recount.

BBC.CO.UK/News Thursday November 5th 2009
Brooks confirmed as NPP Candidate for London Mayor
Arthur Brooks has been confirmed by the NPP today as there candidate for the London Mayoral Election in May 2010.
Brooks,54, who was the NPP candidate in 2006, is the current Deputy Leader of the Party and Leader of NPP in the London Assembly. In 2006 he won over 80,000 votes and ran in second place in the Boroughs of Barking & Dagenham and Tower Hamlets behind Gerald Fox.
politico.com, Saturday November 7th

Is The Election Underway?

With disappointing results in Tuesday off year elections it appears the President has been spurred into action with less than a year until the he faces re-election. Up until now President Santos has stayed above the fray promoting a message that he is focused on governing not on campaigning or on party politics. That ended last night in San Fransico.

The President was the keynote speaker at the Progressive Policy Institute and clearly laid out his strategy for a second term. "We have faced an unprecedented global economic crisis, brought about by a global failure to address banking regulation. We acted when others would have stood by, our stimulous was a bi-partisan effort that has staved off a depression. The next few years will either see us stumble back into the mistakes of previous years, or blaze a new path to a fairer and stronger society."

Santos, took numerous shots at the Republicans running for President though he mentioned none of them by name "The candidates the Republicans have running for President all present the same danger - a lurch to the right, protection only of the richest in our society. They attack the choices made by President Bartlet and myself but the alternative would be to turn our back on healthcare reform, education reform and a drive for a better, fairer country. Next year the American people will face a choice - we can continue to down the long road to prosperity and fairness or we can lurch to the right in the hope of short term gratification."

In further breaks with his previous strategy Santos is touring a number of key swing states over the next week. He is due in Nevada, Colorado and Ohio all states that along with California will be key to Santos gaining a second term.

He was pushed to comment on Tuesday results but refused although he did say he fully supported Miles Hutchisons push for a recount in Virginia even as reports over night suggested that initial work had increased Republican candidate Robert Buchanan''s lead.
foxnews.com, Saturday November 7th

Republican Candidates Hit Back At The President

With President Santos seemingly hitting the campaign trail last night in San Fransisco, the leading GOP candidates took the opportunity today to hit back against the attacks he made in his speech.

Firstly, former West Virginia Governor Ray Sullivan who holds a slender lead in most polls and is seen by many as the favourite for the nomination said the President seemed to be living in a different America to him. "To hear a President who has done nothing in terms of legaslative achievement, and overseen a banking collapse whilst seeing unemployment soaring to 10%, trying to pass himself off as a visionary who has some sort of secret plan to save the country is staggering. A blind promise is hardly enough to forget three years of failure, the American people will see through it."

Sullivan was joined by his chief rival Glen Walken who called Santos' speech "a flight of fantasy" adding "The time has come for change, a return to the values and policies that built this country. The ridiculous idea that President Santos and his predecessor have led us to a fairer society is a struggle to put it mildly. It's time for the American people to take this country back from an overly intrusive and controlling government. The President can't deliver what he's promising, only the American people can."

Santos for his part is continuing the same theme, telling a large crowd in Nevada that only he could deliver the change necessary to lead the country past recession and towards a stronger and fairer society.
cbsnews.com, Sunday November 8th

Security Threat Calls Debate Into Question

Tonights Republican Primary Presidential debate in New York is reportedly in doubt after what is being described as "serious security breach" at the Waldorf Astoria hotel.

All eight of the remaining Republican candidates for President are in New York and all are said to be monitoring events. At this time police are releasing only very limited information on the nature of the breach and it's likely impact on the debate.

A spokesman for Ray Sullivan, the former Governor of West Virginia said "We have been informed of the threat, and at this time we are simply waiting for updates from the local police. Governor Sullivan is continuing to prepare for the debate as normal."

Sheila Brooks, an advisor to Senator George Fuller, told reporters that Fuller, who is scheduled to make his first debate appearance tonight, was aware of the activity at the hotel but was not making any change to his preparations.
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