I hit a snag when writing this, and now I'm off to bed (long day tomorrow). I'll finish this up tomorrow evening/Saturday morning (if you check my posting data, evenings and mornings tend to run together).
535.com
Special: Freshmen Freshmen
June 8, 2011
On January 3, 2011, (actually January 5th, but the 3rd is the legal date), we seated the largest class in United States Congressional history. 17 new Senators and 106 new Representatives. And that wasn't enough. Every month since then, there has been constant seat changes. Since January 11th, we've had six new Senators and seven new Representatives.
We decided to profile these sudden, unexpected, "freshmen freshmen," with the help of former Congressoman Charlene Andrews.
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Thank you, Walt. As many of you are aware, I lost my seat to John Collington last year. I was actually interviewed for 535.com from the RNC last July. I'm 63 now, so I think my career in elected office is over, although I have since been employed at a lovely law firm and do wish to reenter the legal profession for a few years at least.
The situation with the early '11 turnover is of course tied into President Walken's insistence on hiring friends and cronies from his days in the House. I wouldn't accuse him of holding a "kitchen cabinet" or anything, but several of his closest advisors served alongside him in the House.
Let me deal with this, state-by-state:
Idaho
Seat: Senate Seat, Class II
Dates of vacancy: January 17, 2011 (immediate changeover)
Outgoing Senator: Chris Carrick (R), 1991 to 2003; 2004 to 2011
Incoming Senator: Gina DiMeo (R)
Reason for seat change: Appointment of Carrick as Secretary of the Interior
Chris's removal might've been strategy by the Walken campaign, or a general gift to Chris for helping him out during the Presidential campaign, and, according to rumors, turning down an offer by Alexander to run as his VP.
I've known Chris for going on fifteen years now, back when he was a senior, hawkish member of the DLC. But his age, and a relatively close race in 2006, have led many to believe that Chris Carrick might not win a 2012 race against any strong Idaho Democrat. He's not exactly an RNC favorite, even today.
Gina DiMeo, well I don't know much about her. A young deal-maker from the State Senate sounds like a good person to have as Idaho's first female Senator. Although it's said she was a challenge to David Arkin's governorship, so her appointment seems to be as much about strategy as Carrick's.
Illinois
Seat: Senate Seat, Class II
Dates of vacancy: January 5-11, 2011
Outgoing Senator: Jack Enlow (D), 1997 to 2011
Incoming Senator: Mitch Bryce (D)
Reason for seat change: Resignation by Enlow
This one is *not* affected by politics. More by Jack Enlow's personal life. A shame, since I always thought Enlow was one of our better Senators. Sure he could be a bit crude at times, but he always got the job done and was a due-diligent worker (at least, in Washington).
But, the powers-that-be have since decided that Enlow was "always" a bad Senator and deserving of replacement. I think Enlow's fast resignation and admittance of his mistakes is enough to prove that he should remain in the political sphere. Sadly, that is unlikely to ever happen again.
But we couldn't have found a better replacement in Mitch Bryce. Bryce is *the* best economic mind in the Democratic Party and the United States and probably overqualified for the Senate. While he never held elective office before, he is a multiple Cabinet post who has advised every President since Newman.
Seat: 10th Congressional District
Dates of vacancy: May 27, 2011-Present
Outgoing Congressman: Jasper Irving (R), 2009 to 2011
Incoming Congressman: Currently Vacant
Reason for seat change: Resignation of Irving to run for Senate
Jasper Irving has resigned. Yes, you heard me. The prodigal son of the young conservative movement (well, one of them), surprisingly elected in a moderate district, has resigned his seat to run for Senate.
...
What was he thinking?! I know a man named John Hoynes who ran for Senate without having to resign from anything. Or Arnie Vinick or Robert Ritchie if you want to go in that direction. Irving wowed conservatives in 2010 with his nonfiction book
Crisis Point and used that, with good politicking, to gain reelection to a seat that he would never have won again.
Now he's going to waste all that by running for Senate in a moderate state that hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1990. Statements that Irving is a moderate are blatantly false if you've ever read a single paragraph of his book.
It just boggles the mind why Irving wasted Illinois taxpayer money to run for Senate in a "swing state" that's voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1998. I guess he's going to need his new free time to devote to winning at least a single vote in the upcoming election. Especially when Bryce or whoever starts hitting him with all of his own talking points from
Crisis Point.
Seat: 19th Congressional District
Dates of vacancy: January 20-April 5, 2011
Outgoing Congressman: Larry Shanks (R), 2001 to 2011
Incoming Congressman: Marvin Troughton (R)
Reason for seat change: Appointment of Shanks as Secretary of Agriculture
No strategy here. Shanks, both in the Illinois and US House, has been itching to reform and manage Agriculture since the '60s. Walken, and well anyone in the House or following politics closely, understands how dear the issue is to Shanks and may have recalled his work with the Ritchie campaign where his name was leaked among the likely candidates for Agriculture.
His successor though, this Troughton guy... I don't know about him. He's had a few antics that have been ridiculed in the press, and was a member of the Constitution Party until about 2002. He doesn't seem to have change his politics any and he full-on ridiculed his predecessor last week on Bill Maher. I doubt he'll get renominated by his own party.
Louisiana
Seat: Senate Seat, Class III
Dates of vacancy: January 20-February 4 , 2011
Outgoing Senator: Will Villegas (D), 1999 to 2011
Incoming Senator: Judi Rand (I)
Reason for seat change: Appointment of Villegas as United Nations Ambassador
The conventional wisdom is that Governor-elect Quigley wanted a conservative to fill his old seat instead of Villegas. Yet, the 2010 elections didn't go as planned and Villegas managed to eke out a win against (now former) Congressman Ronnie Bauer. So, Quigley won, Walken won, and Bauer lost.
But Villegas is a Blue Dog, and a compromise was reached, at least according to my view of the situation. Villegas took on a top role as UN Ambassador, giving Walken a view of "bipartisanship," even though the UN Ambassador has had a smaller role in the Walken administration. Quigley gets to appoint who he wants, and Villegas gets a promotion and out of seat that would be next-to-impossible to win in six years.
Of course others saw this as well, and Quigley sure wasn't going to appoint Bauer. The left wants a Democrat, the right says a moderate Republican should be good enough, and Villegas (and Walken) isn't saying anything. So Quigley, being the politician he is, finds a non-partisan woman to satisfy everyone's tastes.
And that's who we have now. She, of course, promptly joined the Republican caucus, probably at the behest of Senate Republicans, but she maintains her "independent" label for a reason only Rand herself knows.
And it fits her. Bauer seems poised to run, and probably win in the special. Rand would have to choose a party and run for election for the first time in her life if she wants to. But nothing seems to indicate that she does.
Missouri
Seat: Senate Seat, Class I
Dates of vacancy: January 13-February 4, 2011
Outgoing Senator: Ron Fox (R), 2001 to 2011
Incoming Senator: Lewis Henderson (R)
Reason for seat change: Resignation by Fox
A private man who wanted power. That's how people I know described Ron Fox. I barely knew the guy, me being a Democratic congresswoman and him a Republican senator. But the same could be said about many Republican senators and their knowledge of Ron Fox. He had a very high voting record, going into the office early and leaving late, and never moved his family to Washington.
But his privacy concerns conflicted with his duties as Missouri's sole Republican senator (until those last few days). I can only imagine the strain of having to appear at every major Missouri GOP event, within reason. And I wonder if it broke, when after ten years of hard work, and a sympathetic Missouri Republican in the White House, he didn't get the "promotion" he deserved.
This, whether correct or not, is how I see Senator Fox's surprise resignation. Something that was coming for a long, long time, but was unexpected only because no one talked to Fox about it.
Henderson, oddly, seems to be following Fox's role as a quiet, due-diligent conservative, at least from what I can tell looking at his vote record. Only time, probably about ten years again, can tell if he self-destructs as well.
Seat: 7th Congressional District
Dates of vacancy: January 20-April 25 , 2011
Outgoing Congressman: David Owens (R), 2005 to 2011
Incoming Congresswoman: Patricia Templeton (R)
Reason for seat change: Appointment of Owens as White House Political Director
David Owens is, of course, a close friend of the Shallicks, who run Missouri, and as such has a bright political future. He didn't get his chance at Senate and somehow finagled his way to a lofty White House post, perhaps wanting to get Cabinet position or Chief of Staff in a second Walken term.
His replacement, contrary to some mean rumors out there, is *not* related to that nutjob from South Carolina. She's actually the widow of former Missouri Governor Kelso Templeton, and is probably going to be a caretaker Congresswoman until the GOP get a good candidate for 2012.
Nebraska
Seat: Senate Seat, Class I
Dates of vacancy: January 13, 2011 (immediate changeover)
Outgoing Senator: Sarah Newbury (R), 1995 to 2011
Incoming Senator: Bill Daniel (R)
Reason for seat change: Appointment of Newbury as Secretary of Health and Human Services
Sarah Newbury is the female equivalent of Bill Daniel, so I think it's safe to talk about both of them at the same time, despite the editor's intention. Both were two-term Governors before entering the Senate. Both have similar views. Daniel was a serious contender for the Presidency in 2002, before dropping out to endorse Ritchie. Newbury was a serious contender for the Vice Presidency in 2010, before Liz Clark was decided upon.
Nebraska Governor John Moore ignored a public "vetting process" and just up and appointed his political mentor, Daniel. Is Daniel attempting a comeback? Perhaps to try another run at the nomination in 2018? Only time can tell. He'll make a good Secretary of Health and Human Services in 2023.
New York
Seat: 7th Congressional District
Dates of vacancy: January 20-April 25, 2011
Outgoing Congresswoman: Jane Calhoun (D), 1989 to 2011
Incoming Congressman: Wire Munson (D)
Reason for seat change: Appointment of Calhoun as Ambassador to Ireland
While Will Villegas can be somewhat understood, Calhoun's resignation to take a job offered by Walken was a little more odd. But the Ambassadorship to Ireland is something Calhoun relishes, and is a good position after her 22 years in Congress. She has a good reputation in Ireland, with her involvement as unofficial congressional liaison to Ireland ever since the Lassiter administration. President Reynolds is known to personally hold her in great esteem.
Although, it may connected to Walken's great friendship with Calhoun's cousin Patricia Calhoun, his economic advisor. But she deserves it nonetheless.
Wire Munson was a surprise choice by the New York Democrats. He wasn't even legal until April 8th, when he turned 25. He's the Baby of the House, and the youngest Congressman since 1932. His parents are heavyweights on the New York scene, although I've heard of them in fundraising scenarios, and they were more towards helping the 'liberal' Democrats over moderates and realists like myself. Munson is a perfect storm for the Youth in Revolt, because of his age, liberalness, and location in Andrew Thorn's state. Yet, they, like the rest of New York, hadn't even heard of him until he started campaigning out of the blue in February. I expect a long career from Mr. Munson.
Seat: 23rd Congressional District
Dates of vacancy: January 20-April 25, 2011
Outgoing Congressman: Patrick Dade (R), 2001 to 2011
Incoming Congresswoman: Dalisay Dade (D)
Reason for seat change: Appointment of Patrick Dade as Secretary of the Army
Patrick Dade finally got some recognition and is now Secretary of the Army. Good for him. He'll make a fine sub-Cabinet secretary.
The New York GOP, on the other hand, aren't doing so well. Surprisingly, for upstate New York, they were unable to find a good enough Republican candidate to run in the special against Democratic state legislator Mike Kramden. So they chose the "Joe Willis" way out, and just picked Patrick's wife.
The list of problems with Dalisay Dade are many:
- She's not a natural-born citizen. She emigrated in 1999 and became a full citizen in 2003. She barely fit the *citizenship* requirements for House membership.
- Their is questions about her deceased brother's involvement in the underground Filipino guerrilla movement. Some say he was just a footsoldier, others say he was one of the chief architects. Kramden chose the latter when he aired attack ads in March and April, although he still lost.
- Her knowledge of national or international facts is not pretty. She's shy in interviews, and when she does answer, she's often wrong or vague enough that you know she doesn't understand. At least she admits when she's wrong.
I don't see Dalisay running in 2012, and I think that's just to give the New York GOP enough chance to prop someone else in there and retain a seat they've held since the late '80s.
Ohio
Seat: Senate Seat, Class III
Dates of vacancy: January 3-February 21, 2011
Outgoing Senator: Thomas Ford (R), 2005 to 2011
Incoming Senator: Hayden Straus (D)
Reason for seat change: Regular election, seating postponed by electoral challenges (vacant since 110th Congress)
to be added
Texas
Seat: 7th Congressional District
Dates of vacancy: December 13, 2010-April 18, 2011
Outgoing Congressman: Mark Cumberland (R), 2003 to 2010
Incoming Congressman: Ralph Ellis (R)
Reason for seat change: Appointment of Cumberland to the Senate (vacant since 110th Congress)
Cumberland was appointed last December, so this seat was vacant for over four months. Enough time to coordinate with the other Texas seats, although they did hold an earlier primary on February 3rd.
Cumberland's successor, Ralph Ellis, ran against the late William Mulder last November. I, personally, don't like the man, because of his attack ads on Mulder were some of the worst I ever seen. That and his "social liberalism" (some of which I agree with, but he does go too far) hurt him in April but he still managed to win in April against Democrat Paul Lucas, who, despite some vague campaign claims, is not related to former Governor Jed Lucas.
Seat: 14th Congressional District
Dates of vacancy: February 14-April 18 , 2011
Outgoing Congressman: Ron Paul (R), 1974 to 2011
Incoming Congressman: Bob Mayer (R)
Reason for seat change: Resignation of Paul
Paul was one of the longest-serving Republicans in the House, and it's sad to see him ago. Most don't know who he is, but he's actually been a major player behind-the-scenes. He's already signed a book deal, but the talk on the Hill is that he left because Prior had promised him Liz Clark's Senate seat, and he was snubbed. That and his son's recent imprisonment may be just too much for the 75-year-old Congressman from Galveston.
Paul's successor was Bob Mayer, one of the chief operatives within the RNC. Mayer, most famous for his appearances on Fox News, made his bones on the Ritchie campaign as one of the senior speechwriters. Then chief speechwriter for the Vinick campaign. In the 2009-2010 season, he worked for Eric Swenson, then Matt Skinner, then even briefly Nicholas Alexander (which probably barred him from the Walken campaign), before returning to the RNC. What really annoys me here, is the guy's not even a Texan! He was born in Louisiana, raised in Georgia, and spent most of his adult career in Florida. The RNC just plopped him in Texas because he plays well in the South. But Paul, always a party player, supported the guy and he was placed on the fast track to winning the seat with 70% of the vote.
Seat: 25th Congressional District
Dates of vacancy: March 1-April 18, 2011
Outgoing Congressman: William Mulder (D), 1985 to 2011
Incoming Congressman: Diego Chavez (D)
Reason for seat change: Death of Mulder
Bill Mulder will be missed. He nearly lost both his life and election last year, only to survive and pass away this year. My fellow Texas state Congressman Charles Spender was quoted as saying "Bill Mulder was the greatest friend and colleague I ever had."
Mulder shared most of my ideas and we would have 'rap sessions' in his office with a couple of the other Texas Democrats. He was a friend to President Santos, even if he could be a bit critical of his more lefty ideas. We Texas Democrats stick together! The 25th stayed true to its history and elected a Santosian Democrat in his place, the Mayor of Austin, Diego Chavez. He really brought out the youth vote, and I see Chavez going places.
