535.com Special Report.
Part 8 of 50.
From the West, we go to the Southwest, Arizona to be specific, and the award-winning reporting of the
Arizona Republic's renowned political columnist, Richard Blue.
Arizona is most conservative in the rural areas, and the continuing stream of the elderly flocking to the state will keep Republicans in play. However, the continued influx of Hispanics, particularly in the urban areas of Tuscon and Phoenix, also give Democrats an edge. Thus, Arizona politics are a combination of steady representation and sweeping change.
Senior Senator:
Matt Hunt, Republican.
Hunt is a legend in the state-He's represented the state for 24 years, a friend and follower of Barry Goldwater. Before that, he had fought in the Korean War, and was a real estate developer before entering politics.
Hunt has made himself an expert on the military, and has investigated several military contractors for corruption and missed or late payments, most recently Mueller-Wright Aeronautics. He's a strong advocate of checking the rising power of China in the East, having authored several bills for billions of dollars in defense systems and weapons programs in Taiwan.
Hunt is well-respected in Republican circles, and has raised several million dollars in appearances all over the country. A close friend of current Presidential candidate GlenAllen Walken, Hunt is part of Walken's inner circle, reportedly one of his closest advisors. Many speculate that if Walken wins, Hunt will be named Secretary of Defense.
Election Status: Leans Republican. Hunt is facing Phoenix Mayor Amber Sawyer, an immensely popular woman and a very effective Mayor. While many do not give Sawyer a chance, she has high approval ratings, and plenty of support from women's rights organizations. Hunt is currently polling at 56%, with 2.6 million in the bank.
Committee Assignments: Armed Services(Chairman); Veteran's Affairs; Energy and Natural Resources.
Junior Senator:
Bill Marienhoff, Democrat.
Marienhoff is a native Arizonan, and has connections deep within the state, as he's 1/4th Native American.
Marienhoff has an interesting reputation-As a businessman, he cultivated relationship with Taiwanese business interests that were, shall we say, "in the gray area." He then ran a fierce, dirty(Expensive!) campaign to unseat Senator Pat Barrett in 2000, by two percentage point(A campaign that was run by former White House Communications Director Lou Thornton by the way). Running again in 2006, he won his seat due to a major campaign gaffe by his opponent(The Republican was caught on tape saying, "Hell, if we want to fix Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, all those problems, all we have to do is cut them off to all those old geezers and hombres here! That'll fix the deficit in a fucking hurry!"). Marienhoff won in a landslide, and the candidates gaffe was considered part of the reason Santos won Arizona.
As a Senator, Marienhoff hasn't been a major player. He's a reliably Democrat vote against Republican tax cuts and for Medicare and Medicaid. Due to his previous image, he's steered clear of foreign policy, though he did support his fellow Arizonan(And often-times opponent) Matt Hunt on the Taiwanese flag controversy of a few years ago. Marienhoff has made it a point to push for Indian issues, working for better health care, education and overall improvements to reservations(Though he's also sniffed controversy here for pushing for licenses for Indian casinos, which donate heavily to him, over other businesses).
Election Status: Not Running. Marienhoff is currently in okay shape-His polls currently hover in 51% to 48% range. He's got 3.6 million in the bank, and could probably use some more for 2012.
Committee Assignments: Indian Affairs(Ranking Member); Finance; House Rules and Administration.
Arizona 1st:
Quentin Collier, Republican.
The 10th largest district in the nation is represented by the biggest man in Congress, Quentin Collier. Standing 6'10 and 275 pounds, Collier is a mountain of a man.
His story is interesting-He earned a basketball scholarship at Georgetown, where an interest in political science was ignited. He was drafted by the Phoenix Suns, and spent 5 years with them before an injury ended his career. He was living in Flagstaff at the time, and ran for City Council, and then Mayor. Inspired by the Presidential campaign of Owen Lassiter, Collier worked to get him elected, and then ran for Congress in 1992, where he's been ever since.
Collier is pretty much a standard Lassiter conservative through and through, and his celebrity status has helped him stay afloat(He's received several contributions from NBA stars, and can often be seen at Suns games). He has worked on Democrats for funding for after-school programs, and is also one of the biggest supporters of an "energy-independent" America, working with the other side of the aisle on solar and wind power, and also nuclear power.
Election Status: Leans Republican. Collier has the advantages of incumbency, but is facing his toughest challenge yet, from popular Yavapai District Attorney Anne Killen. Killen is currently polling at 48% with with 1.3 million, while Collier is at 50% and $2.1 million.
Committee Assignments: Education and Labor; Energy and Commerce.
Arizona 2nd:
James Culkin, Republican.
One of the most conservative members of Congress, Culkin has been called "near-Fascistic" by the Women's Leadership Council and a "blight on the American political body" by the DNC. Still, he manages to win reelection.
Elected in 1998, Culkin has never had a Republican White House, and has been one of the biggest opponents of the Bartlet/Santos Administrations. He was one of the first to call for impeachment hearings against Bartlet over the MS scandal(And later one of the biggest voices complaining about the censure), and has consistently hammered the Santos Administration at every turn.
Culkin's district, the 2nd, is oddly shaped-This is due to gerrymandering over the two Native American tribes that reside there, the Navajo and the Hopi. Owing to long-term tension between the two, it was decided that they not be represented in Congress by the same Member.
Election Status: SAFE Republican. The 2nd is extremely conservative, and Culkin has plenty of cash. The Democrats will name some lamb to be slaughtered.
Committee Assignments: Judiciary; Natural Resources.
Arizona 3rd:
Louise MacDonald, Republican.
One of the highest ranking Republicans in the House, MacDonald is the Chief Deputy Minority Whip. She's a close ally of both Jim Arkin and GlenAllen Walken, and many tab her for Whip or even Leader if the Republicans can regain the majority.
MacDonald is an interesting case. She's staunchly pro-life, but that also includes no death penalty. She has 6 children. When her 6th child, son Christian was born, it was discovered that he had Down's Syndrome. MacDonald bore on, saying, "I knew Christian could have Down's, and I had a chance to abort him. But God has a plan for all of us, and I couldn't do it." Due to her son's illness, she's worked with Democrats on children's health and mental development issues, most notably with Maryland Democrat Andrew Fitzpatrick introducing the Childhood Mental Illness Act, also known as Thomas and Christian's Law.
MacDonald is conservative, but not venomous. She's got a future in politics, whether in the House or back home-Many say that she has an eye on Bill Marienhoff's Senate seat in 2012.
Election Status: Safe. MacDonald has 3 million on hand, and 77% approval ratings. The Democrats have nominated a State Senator who will loose in a landslide.
Committee Assignment: House Rules.
Arizona 4th:
Sarah Collins, Republican.
Voted "Hottest Member of the House," Ms. Collins is quite a looker. She was Ms. Arizona in 1990, and has posed for several magazines(Including Playboy, an issue that was harped on repeatedly in her campaigns).
Collins is moderate to liberal for a Republican-She's pro-choice, pro-gay marriage and has voted with Democrats more than Republicans. Collins was elected in 2006, riding on the coattails of Arnie Vinick and the death of popular Congressman Iggy Miller. She won by a single point, 48% to 47%. In 2008, she barely survived a challenge from the right in the primary, and was nearly defeated in the general, winning only due to a last-ditch effort from the RNC. This included a large infusion of cash, and visits from Republican notables like Ray Sullivan, Matt Hunt and Jim Hohner.
Election Status: Democratic Win. Collins is facing Jason Rios, the state's extremely popular Attorney General. He's polling at 62%, and has 4.2 million in the bank, and is raising more even as we speak. Collins is done in politics, unless a miracle occurs-Which, considering she had a pair of miracles already, seems unlikely.
Committee Assignments: Transportation and Infrastructure.
Arizona 5th:
Bill Jones, Republican.
Jones has to be one of the most boring men alive. He's canned and bland, even for a politician. He's been elected for one reason, and one reason only-He's got loads of cash. With a personal fortune estimated at $100 million(Inherited from his father, legendary real estate and construction mogul Dale "Bull" Jones), he's not going to run out of funds anytime soon, and usually just buries his opponents. He's never sponsored a major(or minor) piece of legislation, and is considered by Republicans to be a reliable vote, but a "waste of a seat."
Election Status: Toss-Up. Jones is finally facing an opponent who can match him in Tempe Mayor Ken Harris, a former communications mogul. Harris has raised 7.3 million, and has a personal fortune of 50 million to fight with. He's also been getting support from big names in the party, like Vice President Wendell Tripplehorn. Harris is a Blue Dog, and the DCCC has made the 5th a "Blue Zone" pickup opportunity.
Committee Assignments: House Administration; Budget.
Arizona 6th:
Sam Fellows, Republican.
One of the most respected, intelligent members in Congress, Fellows is a character-A conservative Mormon, quite soft-spoken, who works with Democrats.
Fellows is quite powerful, the result of backing every successful Speaker candidate since Hohner. He was some of the earliest supporters of Hohner, GlenAllen Walken and Jeff Haffley. He also supported Jim Arkin for Minority Leader.
He's quite conservative, but shows a willingness to work with the most liberal members of Congress. When he was challenged in 2004-A move that was widely regarded as one of the stupidest decisions in Arizona political history)-Fellows was attacked for working with Democrats. His response: "Since when did working with someone else to make our country better become a bad thing?"(Fellows won the primary with 98% of the vote).
The 6th has one of the highest concentrations of Mormons in the country, making this district a perfect fit for it's Congressman.
Election Status: SAFE Republican. Fellows is a legend, untouchable, and has 5 million to boot. He'll hold this seat until he retires.
Committee Assignments: Permanent Select Intelligence(Ranking Member); Foreign Affairs; Ways and Means.
Arizona 7th:
Antonio Rodrigues, Democrat.
The 7th is larger than Hawaii, Delware, New Jersey and Connecticut combined, and takes up the vast majority of Arizona's border with Mexico.
Rodrigues was elected in 2006, riding on the tails of Matt Santos' victory. He's considered a leader in the Hispanic community, the first of many "Santosians"-Hispanic leaders running for office, inspired by Santos' win.
Rodrigues is young, and has mainly focused on constituent services so far, working on local issues. However, he's been growing in stature, and was recently given the honor of casting Arizona's vote for Santos as President at the Democratic National Convention, which he did bilingually.
One of Rodrigues' pet projects is immigration reform. He's surprisingly conservative, stating that, "My mother and father came to this country legally, and it took them a few years before they became citizens. We cannot just give every illegal immigrant amnesty. The cries of Lady Liberty to 'give me your tired, your hungry, your huddled masses' must not drown out the cries for law and justice."
Election Status: Safe Democrat. Rodrigues has worked hard to integrate himself with his constituents, and holds town halls several times a year. He's got $1 million in the bank, and is polling 9 point ahead of his opponent.
Committee Assignments: Natural Resources; Foreign Affairs.
Arizona 8th:
Jack Darnell, Republican.
The 8th is a swing district, comprising the southeastern part of the state.
Congressman Jack Darnell is another example of political nepotism. His grandfather was the Congressman for the area represented by the 8th, and his father served as the state's Secretary of State.
Darnell is currently running for Governor, but is trailing in the polls to Lieutenant Governor Peter Mitchell. Darnell had to give up his seat in order to run, so he might be unemployed at the end of this.
Running to replace Darnell are Republicans State Senator Peter Simmons and Douglas Mayor Bill King. King has the edge-He's a much more respected candidate, and a better record-but Simmons refuses to quit, bankrolling his campaign and engaging King in a bitter battle. There have been rumors that whoever wins, the loser will enter the general election as an Independent Candidate.
On the Democratic side, things are much more peaceful. The Democrats have nominated businessman Tom Reilly as their candidate. Reilly has focused on his campaign, and ignored the Republicans, broadcasting a positive message. He's raised 3 million, and is currently leading either of his opponents by 10 points, and the 8th has been designated by the DCCC as a "Blue Zone" pickup.
Election Status: Leans Democratic. Darnell is dealing with the Governor's race, and if he loses, could run again in 2 years. But he's unlikely to endorse either of the Republicans-King has been a consistent critic of Darnell, and Darnell has never liked Simmons.
Committee Assignments: Appropriations.
Total Picture:
The Arizona delegation is likely to change soon. Collins is going to lose, the only question is by how much. The 8th could go Democratic, and with Ken Harris' resources and political backing, it's likely that Bill Jones could fall as well. Matt Hunt could also be leaving, with either an upset by Sawyer, or an appointment in a Walken Administration. If Hunt does leave, Sawyer's got the edge in a special election.