2009 Iran Protests work

was there any way for Iran's Green Movement to work and over throw the Iranian Government? if so what would Iran look like after? what kind of Government would be formed? how would Iran's Foreign Policy be different?
 
It would look like the other Arab Spring countries that currently exist. Infighting between the military and the general population.
 

Vladimir

Banned
The only way they would work is if the people took up arms and military units defected, like in Syria and Libya. This would most likely happen if there was mass bloodshed like what has been going on there. There would a civil war situation. Just as Gaddafi heavily relied on loyal militias, the ayatollahs would heavily rely on the Revolutionary Guard to crush the uprising. The opposition might need Western support and weapons, though. Likely a government dominated by Mir-Hossein Mousavi. He may be a reformist, but he is an admirer of the ayatollahs, so no normalization with Israel or the West. If, however, Mousavi is killed and/or some Iranian opposition leaders more sympathetic take charge, we can see them try to normalize relations and cut off Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiites from Tehran's payroll, though I'm not sure how the Iranian people would react. If the reformists try to build up and secularize the country, we might see Iranians in exile start to return and help build it up.
 
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Is there any chance of the regular Armed Forces siding with the Green movement and opposing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards corps?
As much out of fear that the regime of Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, and the Basij/Pasdaran/IRGC would continue to starve the conventional military of funds and political power.
 
While this would personally make my life significantly easier, there are three major issues with this:

1) The army in the last revolution was a non-political entity, and is an organization that's generally less well-armed and trained than the Pasdaran. So even if the conventional military opposed the Islamic Republican government, it's outclassed by the Pasdaran at every turn.

2) Despite the evidence of vote-rigging, the Green Movement didn't have much in the way of rural support, something that the Islamic Republic has heavily invested in. So while Tehran might be pro-Mousavi, the rest of country really didn't care.

3) The Green Movement wasn't anything like the "Arab Spring" movement. A professor of mine lovingly considered the opposition "Mullah-lite". So even if the Green Movement wins, the only difference is that Khamein'i realizes he better use more force if he rigs the election next time...
 
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