2008 Without John McCain

Had John McCain won the Republican nomination in 2000 and served eight years as president, what would the 2008 Republican Party Presidential Primaries be like without him (assuming his vice president rules out a 2008 run)? I could see Giuliani and Thompson doing much better, but will it be enough to win them any states? Does George W. Bush return eight years later like McCain had OTL? If not, does Mitt Romney become the front runner?
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Mitt and McCain's Running mate would be in the best position for the nomination; assuming the Great Recession is not avoided, whoever runs for the Democrats will be likely to win.

Bush returning isn't unlikely.
 
I think Huckabee would still manage to win Iowa, but Romney would definitely win New Hampshire, turning the primary into a straight fight between the two of them. I'd bet on Romney getting the nomination in this scenario, though ironically I think Huckabee would do better in the general election because he would be able to make a populist pivot when the recession hits which Romney wouldn't be able to do.
 
Had John McCain won the Republican nomination in 2000 and served eight years as president, what would the 2008 Republican Party Presidential Primaries be like without him? I could see Giuliani and Thompson doing much better, but will it be enough to win them any states? Does George W. Bush return eight years later like McCain had OTL? If not, does Mitt Romney become the front runner?

I guess it's going to depend on what kind of record John McCain has as President, and how the choices he's made have affected America and the world compared to the choices George W. Bush made... also: who's his Vice-President? I don't think any of the GOP candidates in OTL would have been McCain's pick as VP back in 2000. History suggests the VP or the runner up in 2000 have a very good shot at the nomination.
 
Mitt would be the nominee, Huckabee can only appeal to evangelicals and there's no other strong establishment candidate. maybe somebody else would run, though I'm not sure who.
 
Mitt would be the nominee, Huckabee can only appeal to evangelicals and there's no other strong establishment candidate. maybe somebody else would run, though I'm not sure who.
*cough*George W. Bush*cough*

I remember seeing a TL once where McCain won the nomination in 2000 and picked Bush as his running mate. Would that be possible?
 
I remember seeing a TL once where McCain won the nomination in 2000 and picked Bush as his running mate. Would that be possible?
It would be possible but, would Romney and Huckabee be willing to run against Vice President Bush, knowing that he would instantly become front-runner and how difficult it would be to wrest the lead from him? Although, I like the idea of a second Vice President Bush because, Bush Jr. is taking the same route as his father by being the vice president of a triumphant rival.
 

It would be possible but, would Romney and Huckabee be willing to run against Vice President Bush, knowing that he would instantly become front-runner and how difficult it would be to wrest the lead from him? Although, I like the idea of a second Vice President Bush because, Bush Jr. is taking the same route as his father by being the vice president of a triumphant rival.

Would McCain have picked Bush? What kind of relationship did they have?
 
Would McCain have picked Bush? What kind of relationship did they have?
I remember reading somewhere that on John McCain's shortlist of running mates in 2000, his top three candidates were:

  • Senator from Tennessee Fred Thompson
  • Senator from Nebraska Chuck Hagel
  • Governor Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania
 
Last edited:
Bush or Thompson being V.P. guarantees them the nomination 8 years later. Hagle probably just retires.
Bush would probably be in first place ITTL, even if McCain selected a non-ambitious or weak Vice President. Like Hillary Clinton, his surname makes him an automatic favorite of the Republican establishment. IOTL, Fred Thompson was front-runner for a while and then his poll numbers start going down. It'd be interesting to see which states he'd win from the boost of being McCain's Vice President. I don't know enough about Chuck Hagel to say...
 
What about Senator George Allen of Virginia? If his "macaca" moment is butterflied away he could be a contender. I remember talk about him before he lost in 2006.
 
What about Senator George Allen of Virginia? If his "macaca" moment is butterflied away he could be a contender. I remember talk about him before he lost in 2006.
I suppose. He did travel to Iowa and New Hampshire frequently before losing to Jim Webb. In a survey released by the National Journal, Allen was the front-runner until McCain entered the race, to which he took second place. So if George W. Bush enters the race, Allen falls to second place. If Bush doesn't enter the race, Allen proves a serious challenge to Mitt Romney.
Because swing state in the South and a Bush.
My question is, will Jeb Bush accept McCain's nomination after seeing his brother get beaten.
 
They'll probably see their Governor as abandoning ship to get into higher office.

I agree. 2000 would be too soon for Jeb, if McCain wants a Bush, even if he did fight a bitter fight against him, he's gonna tap Dubya to be VP, and I question whether he would accept. While I think McCain would be a better candidate against Gore and a better President than George W., I could see the Bushes sabotaging McCain behind the scenes to get Gore elected in 2000 so that they could get Jeb or George the nomination and the Presidency in 2004.
 
I agree. 2000 would be too soon for Jeb, if McCain wants a Bush, even if he did fight a bitter fight against him, he's gonna tap Dubya to be VP, and I question whether he would accept. While I think McCain would be a better candidate against Gore and a better President than George W., I could see the Bushes sabotaging McCain behind the scenes to get Gore elected in 2000 so that they could get Jeb or George the nomination and the Presidency in 2004.
Thats why Thompson or Hagel are the best VPs for this scenario. Theyre well-respected names and are loyal to McCain. Thompson fits the criteria of being a southerner.
 
Last edited:
Thats why Thompson or Hagel are the best VPs for this scenario. Theyre well-respected names and are loyal to McCain. Thompson fits the criteria of being a southerner.

Running mate wouldn't matter, even if Dubya declines, they could sabotage him, heck they're more likely to do it if a Bush isn't on the ticket.
 
Top