2008 with John Kerry

Anaxagoras

Banned
He splits liberals with Obama.

I doubt it. Kerry in 2008 would have been a flame-out, probably dropping out after humiliating showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. Liberals weren't particularly enthused by him in 2004, and they wouldn't have been any more interested in supporting him four years later, especially since he was largely blamed for his own defeat.
 
This is actually a very interesting idea with the potential for massive butterflies. In the long run though, it likely hurts Obama even though it still denies Clinton the nomination.
 
Why does it deny Clinton the nomination? She needs a better team (especially one where everyone does not hate each other's guts- see PSD and Penn) and honing her message to the more populist style that she adopted too late in April and May.
 
Why does it deny Clinton the nomination? She needs a better team (especially one where everyone does not hate each other's guts- see PSD and Penn) and honing her message to the more populist style that she adopted too late in April and May.

It hurts Clinton beacuse Kerry cuts more into her and Edwards' base of support than he does into Obama's.
 
Kerry is stealing WWC, Hispanic, black voters from Clinton? I don't think so. More likely he's stealing older liberals and suburbanites from Obama. Keep in mind that if Obama doesn't win Iowa the black vote will still split or have a slight edge to Clinton, which means she wins quite a few Southern primaries. Blacks didn't start flocking to him en masse until he won Iowa and thus proved his credibility. At one time in 2007 IIRC she led him 2-1 among black voters.
 
Kerry is stealing WWC, Hispanic, black voters from Clinton? I don't think so. More likely he's stealing older liberals and suburbanites from Obama. Keep in mind that if Obama doesn't win Iowa the black vote will still split or have a slight edge to Clinton, which means she wins quite a few Southern primaries. Blacks didn't start flocking to him en masse until he won Iowa and thus proved his credibility. At one time in 2007 IIRC she led him 2-1 among black voters.

Clinton is retaining WWC, but Hispanics are one bloc about which I'm unsure. However, I fail to see how Dean's 2004 support base rallies to Kerry in 2008 when Obama exists and seems potentially viable. 2008 was a hearts over heads contest, and that does not change with a failed presidential nominee in the race who was unpalatable to much of his own base four years earlier.
 
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