If Gore is even nominated for re-election in 2004...even if he doesn't win...then I think there is no Barack Obama.
Well...obviously there "is" a Barack Obama, but not on a national scale. He might not even be a Senator. After all, it was his opposition to the Iraq War that started earning him attention...and got him the spot on Kerry's nomination convention, which is how everyone heard his name and started begging him to run for President. It was also his opposition to the Iraq War "from the beginning" that he used to differentiate himself from Hillary Clinton.
But look at a few scenarios:
President Gore never declares war on Iraq = Obama never speaks out against it, doesn't gain attention, maybe isn't even Senator
President Gore declares war on Iraq, does well = Obama either doesn't speak out against it, and doesn't become known, or does speak out against it, and is wrong.
President Gore declares war on Iraq, disaster = Obama either doesn't speak out against fellow Democrat, and doesn't become known, or does speak out against it, and turns against his own party...making it impossible for him to get support for 2008 nomination.
President Gore, war or no war, is nominated for re-election in 2004 = Obama doesn't get a slot at the convention, because he's either a nobody, or somebody who has turned against the Democrats.
Well...obviously there "is" a Barack Obama, but not on a national scale. He might not even be a Senator. After all, it was his opposition to the Iraq War that started earning him attention...and got him the spot on Kerry's nomination convention, which is how everyone heard his name and started begging him to run for President. It was also his opposition to the Iraq War "from the beginning" that he used to differentiate himself from Hillary Clinton.
But look at a few scenarios:
President Gore never declares war on Iraq = Obama never speaks out against it, doesn't gain attention, maybe isn't even Senator
President Gore declares war on Iraq, does well = Obama either doesn't speak out against it, and doesn't become known, or does speak out against it, and is wrong.
President Gore declares war on Iraq, disaster = Obama either doesn't speak out against fellow Democrat, and doesn't become known, or does speak out against it, and turns against his own party...making it impossible for him to get support for 2008 nomination.
President Gore, war or no war, is nominated for re-election in 2004 = Obama doesn't get a slot at the convention, because he's either a nobody, or somebody who has turned against the Democrats.