The 2008 US Presidential elections by the failure of the Iraq War and the financial crisis. But what would the election have looked like without these two issues? Who would be the Republican and Democratic nominees? Who would win the election?
 
Would W Bush still be the President ITTL? What about the WoT? Would that have occurred? Context is key with elections. You can't just remove one factor and expect it to play out exactly the same.
 
Assuming the POD is that Bush doesn't invade Iraq and this butterflies or at least delays the financial crisis, you probably have a relatively low-stakes election that favors the Republican candidate, who can trake credit for a strong economy and keeping America safe..
 
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