2008 election if the financial crisis had been delayed 2 months

Lets take a look at the state polls at the midpoint of the time between the conclusion of the GOP convention, after which some polls had McCain up 10, and his campaign suspension in late September, at which point the economic situation had killed his chances. So...polls from roughly September 10 to 20. I am going to read into each of these the best McCain result possible for a "most different" result. (If you want to write an "Obama wins by less" TL, feel free, but it's less interesting IMHO.)

* * *

September 18:

OHIO: Obama 46, McCain 45
4% margin of error means McCain good case: 47-44 --> 50-48-2
MCCAIN PICKUP
If poll is accurate, OBAMA HOLD

MICHIGAN: Obama 48, McCain 44
4% margin of error means McCain good case: 46-46 --> 49-49-2
MCCAIN PICKUP/OBAMA HOLD
If poll is accurate, OBAMA HOLD

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 45, McCain 45
4% margin of error means McCain good case: 47-43 --> 51-48-1
MCCAIN PICKUP
If poll is accurate, MCCAIN PICKUP/OBAMA HOLD

INDIANA: McCain 48, Obama 44
4% margin of error means McCain good case: 50-42 --> 53-46-1
MCCAIN PICKUP
If poll is accurate, MCCAIN PICKUP

WISCONSIN: Obama 45, McCain 44
4% margin of error means McCain good case: 46-43 --> 50-48-2
MCCAIN PICKUP
If poll is accurate, OBAMA HOLD

IOWA: Obama 44, McCain 44
4% margin of error means McCain good case: 46-42 --> 51-47-2
MCCAIN HOLD
If poll is accurate, MCCAIN PICKUP/OBAMA HOLD

ILLINOIS: Obama 53, McCain 37
4% margin of error means McCain good case: 39-51 --> 43-56-1
OBAMA HOLD
If poll is accurate, OBAMA HOLD

MINNESOTA: Obama 47, McCain 45
4% margin of error means mcCain good case: 47-45 --> 49-47-2
MCCAIN PICKUP
If poll is accurate, OBAMA HOLD

September 10

COLORADO: Obama +2 over McCain
Assume correct --> 48-50-2
OBAMA HOLD

September 12

NEW MEXICO: Obama +7 over McCain
Assume correct --> 46-53-1
OBAMA HOLD

NEVADA: McCain +2 over Obama
Assume correct --> 50-48-2
MCCAIN PICKUP

September 16

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama +6 over McCain
Assume correct --> 52-46-2
OBAMA HOLD

NORTH CAROLINA: McCain +17 over Obama
Assume correct --> 58-41-1
MCCAIN PICKUP

September 10

FLORIDA: McCain 50, Obama 42
Assume correct --> 53-46-1
MCCAIN PICKUP

VIRGINIA: Obama 51, McCain 47
Assume correct --> 51-47-2
OBAMA HOLD

* * *

Giving McCain the benefit of the doubt in all of those Midwest polls, we get a map that I will call "The Death of Hope": McCain wins a bunch of super-close races for a commanding 317-221 victory in the electoral college. Obama is clearly too radical for Middle America.

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Here is where I read the polls exactly as they are, with ties going to McCain, and McCain getting an additional one point against Obama in Wisconsin, for a win by the smallest of margins. Perhaps more likely is for an Ohio flip and a 280-258 electoral vote result, but this one flips Wisconsin to McCain and allows Obama to hang on in Ohio for the most Democrat hair-pulling possible: I give you 270-268.

genusmap.php
 
Last map: my "best guess" scenario for a McCain win, which accepts that Obama had much superior organizing to McCain in Iowa, and that Wisconsin's traditionally high turnout would in all probability ensure that Ohio went Dem before Wisconsin. This map is "God and Guns", at 273-265.

genusmap.php
 
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