2007 UK Snap Election?

So... If Gordon Brown called the snap General Election in September-October 2007 that some people were urging him to call at the time:

a) Would he win it?

b) In the slightly longer run, would he/the Labour Party regret having won it, in light of the 2008 economic meltdown?
 
Possibly, or we could have had a hung Parliament. Imagine going into the Financial Crisis with either a minority government or a very narrow majority...
 
Yes, a somewhat scary prospect. Of course, the Conservatives did enjoy something of a surge in the polls only a couple of weeks after Brown's moment of truth - I think it was the highest they'd been since Black Wednesday. So it could have been Cameron as PM with a tiny majority when the crisis hit.
 
Labour wins with a tiny majority, possibly relying on the SDLP for support. As others have said, chaos ensues. Pretty sure Cameron would hang on, he was apparently going to be given two chances, and he'll have gained a good 40 seats or so.
 
Probably a small Labour majority. Like tiny. So you have Labour (with Brown, probably. He's a pretty stubborn man) in power through to 2012, after which the Conservative absolutely demolish Labour. LidDem surge is a wildcard.
 
I think someone did a TL on this once.

If Brown calls an election in 2007 then a small Labour majority is the most likely outcome, but it's not a certainty given the fact that all parties will be on election footing from October 07 onwards.

Labour just scraping back would be the worst possible outcome at that time though, given what we know. I'm not even sure that a Labour government would be able to last the full parliament, considering their's a financial crash on the way, along with the expenses scandle-and of course the Leadership-related murmers from the Blairite faction of the labour party.

Someone started a Thread yesterday about the best way of getting a Cameron majority government, this is probably it actually. He stays after the 2007 election-the Tories have had a few leaders in quick succession, getting rid of him will look like they're panicking, unless Cameron really screws up his campaign.

The Lib Dems are an interesting case here-Ming Campbell resigned as leader at this point in OTL, with an election on the way he stays to fight. I think though that he probably loses seats, so may resign anyway.
 
They did? I must have missed that one. But I do think it's an interesting POD.

As I said above, and basing this purely upon my own memory of the time, only a week or two after Labour were riding high in the polls and Brown was being urged to call an election and then being accused of weakness and indecision for not doing so, Cameron gave that very well-received speech and unveiled some Middle England-friendly policy points and suddenly surged ahead. It was like a mini version of "Cleggmania", iirc. I agree that a much, much-reduced Labour majority looks like the most likely outcome, but if Cameron could recreate a similar surge during a General Election campaign, I wouldn't rule out the Conservatives just edging it. Or indeed a hung Parliament. But I do agree that just about any of the likely outcomes look disastrous for the country, and indeed for Labour, in light of what we know happened a year or so later.

And yes, the Lib Dems were on course to do quite badly in a general election at that time, I think (worse than 2010 probably), compared to their really pretty good performances in the prior ones.
 
Top