2004: Kerry and Bush tied with 269 electoral votes..

Anaxagoras

Banned
The Republican margin in the House doesn´t really matter. When the House chooses the President, it votes by state delegations. Today the Democratic controlled House has 25 G.O.P. controlled delegations, 24 Democrat controlled and 1 tied.

We can't assume that each member will vote for their party. There are Western states, for example, that are overwhelmingly Republican in terms of presidential elections but are represented by Democrats. Are they going to vote for Kerry when the people of their state just gave Bush a 15% victory margin? Delaware is represented by a Republican, but would he support Bush when his state just overwhelmingly voted for Kerry?
 

burmafrd

Banned
Bottom line is that BUSH would win. And its REALLY doubtfull that Edwards would be put in- putting in a VP of the other party would strike a lot of Americans as pretty bad; I just do not see it happening.
 
I tend to think that GW Bush stays as President. I am fairly sure Republicans control most state delations in the House, I think that at least 53 Senators would be Republicans, this would be the Congress elected in 2004 I also suspect that on this scenario Bush would have got more votes from actual people.

Given the closeness in Ohio my calcuation is that had the popular result been the exact opposite of 2000, Bush winning by about half a million, I think that would have given Kerry a clear majority in the electoral college.
 
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