2004 GOP primaries and presidential election if Gore wins in 2000?

[ersatz-york]

What might the 2004 GOP primaries and presidential election look like if Gore wins in 2000?

I will make the initial assumption that 9/11 still happens and that Gore chooses to invade Afghanistan, but it would also be insightful to see what the situation would be like without 9/11.

Do we see John McCain try to make another run at the nomination, or do other, newer candidates come to the forefront? What might the ticket look like?

Going into the general election, what is the GOP's line of attack, both within a post-9/11 environment and without?

Is Gore able to hold down the presidency, or does incumbency fatigue--along with, perhaps, some other factors--put a Republican in the Oval Office?

 

[THE OBSERVER]

They'll have McCain run again. Definitely.

 

[Just a Rube]

Yeah, McCain seems the logical choice. Especially if 9/11 happens, his foreign policy/military cred would be huge. Giuliani might also run in a post-9/11 world, but he will have the same problems he did in 2008; also, it seems a little "too soon" for him (especially since there would presumably be plenty of pictures/quotes of him and Gore working together after the attacks).

Most of the non-McCain contenders from 2000 seem too domestic-policy focused for a post-9/11 election (e.g. Steve Forbes), but some might try again if there is no 9/11. Most of the 2008 crop (other than McCain) isn't ready yet (Romney has just started his first term, if things go OTL) or reflects a mood that I'm not sure the country would be ready for (e.g. Huckabee). Although if gay marriage advances at more or less the same rate as it did OTL (with the first court decision legalizing it in 2003), there might be more of a demand for a social conservative.

 

[Indicus]

but he will have the same problems he did in 2008;

No he won't. 9/11 will be a much bigger issue than in 2008 IOTL, and his "noun, verb, and 9/11" strategy will work a lot better in 2004.

 

[terrellk]

I agree that McCain would run, almost certainly regardless of whether 9/11 occurred. McCain's issue is that his candidacy almost begs for a conservative challenger. The evangelicals who are probably still not sold on McCain might line up behind Sam Brownback who would be fresh off of a Senate re-election, though they may have another option in Rick Santorum who would still be the sitting, if unpopular, Junior Senator from Pennsylvania. A more establishment choice could be Bill Frist, who hadn't really been tainted by the kind of corruption scandals that would end his career just a couple of years later. (Although, given his penchant for campaign finance shenanigans, it seems at least very possible that there would be an FEC violation that would derail his campaign.)

On a slightly different note, there's a real chance that the libertarian movement in the GOP would take a much different course in a Gore-Wins Timeline, as Gary Johnson could plausibly throw his hat in the ring as a successful governor of a blue state. Johnson's brand of libertarian-ish policies are decidedly more left wing than those of Ron Paul, which could undermine the libertarian message. Of course that message might not take hold at all if the Compassionate Conservatives haven't been discredited by the policies of the Bush administration. If Johnson manages to get any traction, the GOP libertarians will take a different tack than they did IOTL.

A note on Giuliani: We all remember the line about "noun-verb-9/11" but in truth that wasn't what derailed his campaign. A string of gaffes and a lack of any real base in the Republican party (he was the "leadership" candidate, but policy-wise lacked a constituency) together doomed his candidacy. And his strategy cannot change, really, in 2004. He's not conservative enough to win in Iowa, and if McCain's running there's not a lot of opportunity for Giuliani to compete in New Hampshire or South Carolina. So he's stuck again looking for a big performance on Super Tuesday without any sort of springboard to get there. I just can't see a path for him to succeed.

 

[Coiler]

I agree that McCain would run, almost certainly regardless of whether 9/11 occurred. McCain's issue is that his candidacy almost begs for a conservative challenger. The evangelicals who are probably still not sold on McCain might line up behind Sam Brownback who would be fresh off of a Senate re-election

-Small correction, Brownback was up for reelection in 2004. So there is an issue there, albeit not the biggest one.

I think McCain would run as the "establishment" candidate, he'd get a fireater primary opponent who could win Iowa and a few of the more deep-red states but lose out in most of them, and then go on to-it depends on what Gore's post-9/11 foreign policy is and how the economy's doing.

 

[Aaaaasima]

NO because Gore (that was elected democratically over the EVVVVIL Bush family ITTL) will destroy the GOP and abolish the UN-democratic electoral college and end global warming and terrorism

/s

In reality, I can see Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee, Jeb Bush and Dick Lugar running. Dick Cheney and Elizabeth Dole might also run, but I aint counting on it. Keyes may run again. If Giuliani was nominated he may win, as the mayor of a city that was hit during 9/11 could be a beneficial factor. If Bin Laden releases the same video, this time mocking Gore, Gore could win as Bush did.

 

[arjav]

Former congressman John Kasich of Ohio.

 

[Just a Rube]

Former congressman John Kasich of Ohio.

He might make an exploratory bid, but I don't see him having the stature to get anywhere. He's been out of office for 4 years, and hosting a miscellaneous show on Fox isn't enough to build the prominence he'd need to succeed.

Alan Keyes probably will run, but again will be basically a footnote to the campaign.

 

[dw93]

The GOP primaries will have McCain, Huckabee, Jeb Bush, Giuliani, Keyes, and maybe Gary Johnson. McCain pulls it off and picks Huckabee as VP to unify the party. For the General, I lean toward McCain narrowly beating Gore with voter fatigue, a slow recovery from the "Dot Com" recession, and gridlock.

 

[297*]

What about Fred Thompson, Orrin Hatch, Lamar Alexander, or John Ashcroft? Or would they more likely become Vice President or cabinet positions? I think 2004 is the best setting for a John Engler Vice Presidency.

Al Gore 2000 Victory:

Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)/Senator John Kerry (D-MA): 296 Electoral Votes
Governor George W. Bush (R-TX)/Former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney (R-WY): 242 Electoral Votes

 

[arjav]

He might make an exploratory bid, but I don't see him having the stature to get anywhere. He's been out of office for 4 years, and hosting a miscellaneous show on Fox isn't enough to build the prominence he'd need to succeed.

Alan Keyes probably will run, but again will be basically a footnote to the campaign.

You realize I was kidding, right?

That being said...I can see Kasich as a cabinet position (maybe treasury, given his role in the budget negotiations). McCain will definitely be the nominee though.

 

[dw93]

What about Fred Thompson, Orrin Hatch, Lamar Alexander, or John Ashcroft? Or would they more likely become Vice President or cabinet positions? I think 2004 is the best setting for a John Engler Vice Presidency.

Fred Thompson and Orin Hatch are possible. I don't know enough about Lamar Alexander to say, same with Ashcroft.

 

[Just a Rube]

Fred Thompson and Orin Hatch are possible. I don't know enough about Lamar Alexander to say, same with Ashcroft.

John Ashcroft had just lost a Senate race to a dead guy in 2000; only way he gets a mention for president is if he wins the rematch in 2002.

 

[Swiffness]

Rudy doesn't have a shot in hell at the nomination because he's Pro-Choice.

McCain has this. He waited his turn.

 

[Nazi Space Spy]

These are some names to chew on that have yet to be mentioned.

General Wesley Clark (he was an independent and ran as a Democrat due to their agreements on social issues/not wanting to primary Bush. He *might* end up in the GOP under Gore, but that seems unlikely. Still, it's a name worth mentioning)
Former Governor Jim Gilmore (IMO his best opportunity would have been in an alternate 2004, and he'd still be a middle tier candidate).
Governor Tommy Thompson
Governor Bill Owens

 

[Malkenny]

Giuliani would probably try to run, but fail as OTL.

I agree with most everyone else that McCain would ultimately win the nomination.

With that said,a few other people who'd run could include Ron Paul and maybe Steve Forbes again? Elizabeth Dole might also try again.
There could also be a 'Draft Powell' Campaign,but I feel as if thats too far fetched.

 

[Archibald]

There was an honest-to-God TL on a Gore presidency a while back https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/decision-points-the-presidency-of-al-gore.259295/

 

[The Congressman]

What might the 2004 GOP primaries and presidential election look like if Gore wins in 2000?

I will make the initial assumption that 9/11 still happens and that Gore chooses to invade Afghanistan, but it would also be insightful to see what the situation would be like without 9/11.

Do we see John McCain try to make another run at the nomination, or do other, newer candidates come to the forefront? What might the ticket look like?

Going into the general election, what is the GOP's line of attack, both within a post-9/11 environment and without?

Is Gore able to hold down the presidency, or does incumbency fatigue--along with, perhaps, some other factors--put a Republican in the Oval Office?

McCain would probably run, and I think George Allen would be his conservative challenger. Colin Powell is a wild card

 

[Baron Nydrie]

A good question is how the victory is achieved. If Gore won NH, he wouldn't have needed Florida, so the whole recount fiasco could have been skipped. Historically, only one VP replacing a 2+ term President was re-elected, Truman in 1948, so incumbent fatigue would weigh in. In the end, Bush could still win Florida, especially if CNN was not called for Gore before the Panhandle finished voting, and lose the race if NH switched...maybe Naderites up north became more pragmatic and go for the lesser (to them) evil.

McCain is the likely nominee, but he may face conservative challenges. Electorally, the census would favor the GOP in 2004, though the 2002 election would be an important factor. Also, who do you think Rowland (or Celluci if Kerry was the VP instead) would appoint?