2004 election with Gore

samcster94

Banned
This is a Gore election scenario where he barely won New Hampshire in a recount with 50 votes in his favor. After winning the EC by this sliver, how well does he do in 2004??? I want a Hillary-free thread(the only other election able to be discussed is alt 2002). Also, 9/11(or something very much like it) happens, so that is nearly identical to OTL.
 
Given how Bush just barely won in 2004, I'd say Gore loses. After 12 years of Democrats people would want change as they did in 1992. Gore and the Democrats would receive blame for the 2002-03 recession and I'm sure the GOP would still make gains in the 2002 midterms as a result. Gore would get a huge popularity bump from 9/11 and the war (and possibly getting Bin Laden), but again look to 1992 as a good reference guide. Bush's popularity was temporarily boosted by the war, but deteriorated by election day. Gore would be in a similar situation.

As for the Republican nominee, we basically get 2008 four years early. Giuliani begins as the frontrunner, but his disastrous strategy opens the door for McCain to earn the nomination. McCain would beat Gore, but whether or not he's re-elected depends upon his ability to handle Hurricane Katrina and the economic crisis.
 
Indeed it would.

Also, with Shaheen on the ticket Gore wouldn't just have a greater chance of winning NH. The popular boost he could potentially get from having a female VP nominee could put him over the top in Florida and Tennessee. Of course, this would depend on how well the VP candidate actually plays nationally once the wider electorate gets to know her better. Ferraro and Palin didn't help Mondale and McCain on election day after all...
 
Also, with Shaheen on the ticket Gore wouldn't just have a greater chance of winning NH. The popular boost he could potentially get from having a female VP nominee could put him over the top in Florida and Tennessee. Of course, this would depend on how well the VP candidate actually plays nationally once the wider electorate gets to know her better. Ferraro and Palin didn't help Mondale and McCain on election day after all...

I'm not sure about FL because Lieberman apparently did help there at least with the Jewish vote. Broward County went for Gore-Lieberman 67.41-30.93 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broward_County,_Florida which is a better showing than Bill Clinton (twice), John Kerry, Barack Obama (twice) or Hillary Clinton got there. The same is true for Palm Beach County (despite the notorious butterfly ballots) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palm_Beach_County,_Florida where Gore-Lieberman's 62.3-35.3 was the best Democratic presidential showing since 1936, and has not been equaled after 2000. (Not that either Broward or Palm Beach was Jewish majority but they are believed to have the highest percentage of Jews in Florida, and indeed among the highest of any counties in the US.)

As for TN, Bush's margin there was almost four points--I don't think the choice of a VP could change the result. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Tennessee,_2000
 
As for TN, Bush's margin there was almost four points--I don't think the choice of a VP could change the result. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Tennessee,_2000

Well, if you switch only 2% of the vote from Bush to Gore then Gore wins the state by .1%. That alone would give Gore the election. Perhaps a female VP would help, but the fact that Gore couldn't even win his home state that twice elected him to the Senate - and that Bill Clinton won twice - is more of a testament to his ineffectual campaign than anything.

Which brings me back to the original intent of this thread. If VP Gore couldn't win the Presidency - or even his home state - despite having the tremendous advantages of a good economy, a popular incumbent, and an inept opponent then he would be very unlikely to be re-elected in '04.
 
Well, if you switch only 2% of the vote from Bush to Gore then Gore wins the state by .1%. That alone would give Gore the election. Perhaps a female VP would help, but the fact that Gore couldn't even win his home state that twice elected him to the Senate - and that Bill Clinton won twice - is more of a testament to his ineffectual campaign than anything.

Which brings me back to the original intent of this thread. If VP Gore couldn't win the Presidency - or even his home state - despite having the tremendous advantages of a good economy, a popular incumbent, and an inept opponent then he would be very unlikely to be re-elected in '04.

In fairness, TN like the rest of the South was becoming more Republican well before 2000. Many presidential candidates--including some successful ones--have lost their own state simply because its party leanings were too great to overcome. To look specifically at Tennessee, James K. Polk couldn't quite carry it in 1844--it was too much a Whig state.
 
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