2001-Iran/US War

What if it was revealed or at least believed by the US government that Iran was quartering members of Al-Quaeda and either refused to give them up or did not admit to having them. This leads to a war between the two nations. How long does this last? What are the lasting effects? How does the rest of the Middle East Develop with this change?
This is assuming that there is no Iraq war.
 
America would win the conventional phase of the war and do it soundly and then we would get hit with the cold hard truth that Iran's geography is even kinder to insurgent's then Iraq's this discovery would not be fun it would not be fun at all.
 
America would win the conventional phase of the war and do it soundly and then we would get hit with the cold hard truth that Iran's geography is even kinder to insurgent's then Iraq's this discovery would not be fun it would not be fun at all.
Yeah the first is a bit of a given.
Also given Iran's far less-secular government you think the government in hiding, if the Ayatollah and president managed to escape. Would cooperate and coordinate with Al-Quaeda and Taliban leaders? Also how does Iraq end up in this scenario.
 
Yeah the first is a bit of a given.
Also given Iran's far less-secular government you think the government in hiding, if the Ayatollah and president managed to escape. Would cooperate and coordinate with Al-Quaeda and Taliban leaders? Also how does Iraq end up in this scenario.

Without Iranian help, Afghanistan is even worse than OTL.

Also, any invasion's going to need to be amphibious, or Iraqi backed, I'm not sure which one is sillier.
 
I don't think your divergence point is enough, unlike Iraq Iran never used WMD's, Iran does not have conveniently located US bases nearby for an invasion, Iran hates Al-Quaeda, Iran never needed US air strikes after the Tanker War, there was no real lobby in taking Iran down like taking Iraq down, etc.

So IMHO I think you need a bigger Divergence Point
 
I don't think your divergence point is enough, unlike0 Iraq Iran never used WMD's,1 Iran does not have conveniently located US bases nearby for an invasion,2 Iran hates Al-Quaeda,3 Iran never needed US air strikes after the Tanker War,4 there was no real lobby in taking Iran down like taking Iraq down, etc.

So IMHO I think you need a bigger Divergence Point
0-When did Iraq actually use WMD's
1-I am sure Saudi Arabia would fix that problem
2-My mistake
3&4-No but the general mistrust is still there.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Iran is Shia Al-Qaeda is Sunni. Its even less likely than Iraq suppourting Al-Qaeda.

This. Iran supporting Al-Qaeda makes no sense whatsoever. In order to achieve this POD, you need so many changes to the TL that 9/11 as we know it would never have taken place.
 

stalkere

Banned
This one almost belongs in ASB.

Your POD would have to be Al-Qaeda being a Shia group and going from there.

Make the 9/11 attacks from Hamas, and then we're off...

But it still leaves a hostile Iraq up there to give the US forces in Iran a problem. Sure, they hate the Iranians, but they're not above stirring up a little trouble - maybe slipping guns to restive Shia in Basra Province ans hinting "Why don't you go help your cousins out?" - which both removes a problem from Iraq AND causes a problem for the Americans - a double win for Iraq - triple win, if some Iranians get killed in the process.

Really, really, would hate to see the US getting involved in a ground war in Iran. The place sucks.
It really, really sucks. I used to look at the maps and sattelite photos of the place and wargame how we'd do it, and came to the conclusion "Not just no, but HELL no."
Quagmire, just doesn't begin to describe it.
Sure, the Saudis and their buddies would be happy to support us, maybe even send troops, definitely fund a lot of the expense, but...it would suck, bad.
Body bag city and another wall of names bigger than the Viet Nam wall in DC. That's my feeling - and that's the US side.

Freaking armageddon for the Iranians. CBUs by the BuFF load, ARCLIGHT missions running nonstop, fast as we could ship the bombs in. Bodies in windrows for as far as the eye could see...FAR worse than Iraq and Afghanistan put together and doubled or tripled.
 
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