2000 Senate election in Missouri

samcster94

Banned
What is the likely outcome of this Senate race if Ashcroft's opponent doesn't die??? The crash was easily avoidable and the governor could have survived.
 
2000 was a good year for Senate Democrats generally, so a surviving Carnahan could still have won the election. In 2002, a year when the GOP actually gained midterm seats, the Democrats lost Missouri by only 1.1%. So Ashcroft might still have lost.
 
Polls before Carnahan's death generally showed a slight lead for Ashcroft. https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=103 gives three pre-October 16 polls: Research 2000 (7/06-7/09) gave Ashcroft a 47-46 lead; Mason-Dixon (8/31-9/01) gave him a 46-45 lead; and Arves, McHenry & Associates (R) gave him a 43-38 lead. Even discounting Arves, McHenry for possible partisan bias, a narrow Ashcroft victory seems to me the most plausible outcome.

It is true that Jean Carnahan almost won even in 2002, a generally Republican year. But after all, most incumbent senators do get re-elected; even in 2002 , Max Cleland was the only Democratic senator defeated for re-election. Besides, some sympathy for Jean Carnahan as a widow may have lingered on into 2002.
 
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