What is the likely outcome of this Senate race if Ashcroft's opponent doesn't die??? The crash was easily avoidable and the governor could have survived.
2000 was a good year for Senate Democrats generally, so a surviving Carnahan could still have won the election. In 2002, a year when the GOP actually gained midterm seats, the Democrats lost Missouri by only 1.1%. So Ashcroft might still have lost.
Polls before Carnahan's death generally showed a slight lead for Ashcroft. https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=103 gives three pre-October 16 polls: Research 2000 (7/06-7/09) gave Ashcroft a 47-46 lead; Mason-Dixon (8/31-9/01) gave him a 46-45 lead; and Arves, McHenry & Associates (R) gave him a 43-38 lead. Even discounting Arves, McHenry for possible partisan bias, a narrow Ashcroft victory seems to me the most plausible outcome.
It is true that Jean Carnahan almost won even in 2002, a generally Republican year. But after all, most incumbent senators do get re-elected; even in 2002 , Max Cleland was the only Democratic senator defeated for re-election. Besides, some sympathy for Jean Carnahan as a widow may have lingered on into 2002.