20 July plot succesful

Following a program on NGC and browsing through the wiki, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20_July_plot, i am left wondering just how much chance for success did the 20 July plot have?

Let's assume that Hitler does not step out of the room and gets the full blast of the explosive device, what would happen with Hitler killed?
 
Either if the putschits succeed (which is quite complicated) or the coup is put down, both face the same answer from the Allies "Surrender unconditionally". War may last a few months less in the first case, so some millions lifes are spared, which is a good thing in itself.
 
But could the conspirators have gained enough momentum with hardcore Nazi like Himmler, Goebbels and Goering still on the loose?
 
The plotters didn't really have much of an idea as to how they'd take power once Hitler was dead and they'd be facing an awful lot of Wehrmacht, SS and Party opposition, so I'd say they'd be more likely to fail than succeed.
With Hitler dead , Heinrich Himmler is really the only candidate to replace him. I expect he'll try to make peace with the Western Allies but there's no way in hell his offer would be accepted.
A Germany run by Himmler would be short lived but it would certainly be interesting, in the Chinese sense. Why? Because Himmler made his boss look like a pillar of sanity by comparison. Poison gas and human sacrifice are just two of the things you can expect from Himmler's Germany.

If the plotters somehow succeed, they'll have more of a chance of negotiating a peace but it won't be on the terms they want. Germany keeping it's conquests isn't happening full stop and neither is giving Germany a government that has the potential to end up as a second Weimar. Chances are , the new government eventually realises that they can't win the war and the peace they were isn't coming and so they opt for unconditional surrender to leave as much of Germany free from the Soviets as is possible.

Either way , the war ends a few months earlier than in OTL. Czechoslovakia and much of eastern Germany is spared from communism ( depending upon when the war ends ,even Hungary and Bulgaria might escape). This would seem to be a better scenario for a lot of people than OTL.
However there is one issue. In this scenario, Germany will have been brought down in part thanks to treason from within. As memories of the horrors of Nazism fade , might there arise a new "stab in the back " myth?
 

Perkeo

Banned
As memories of the horrors of Nazism fade , might there arise a new "stab in the back " myth?
Of course there will be a new "stab in the back " myth

Yes a successful July 20th could have
- saved millions of lifes (both by stopping the war and the holocaust),
- spared most of Europe from the communists,
- preserved what little dignity Germany still had by proving not all were Nazis and
- kept Germany more intact and most likely lost less territory than OTL.

But
those people who want to deny that the war is lost have too many excuses to do so. By preventing the catastrophe they destroy the evidence how bad it would have been. They need more concessions from the allies than the allies will give them or TTL's https://www.alternatehistory.com will be full of Hitler-isn't-assassinated-and-winds-WWII-threads.

IMO D-Day is the deadline for the assassination.
 
Everything I've read about this makes it sound like it was a real slapdash plot with no real plan after Hitler's death and way too much trust that people would side with them afterwards.

I agree; Himmler and Goering (who is Hitler's "legitimate" [if you can really say that] successor) will not be standing still...

The Allies will still insist on Unconditional Surrender, and I also agree there will be a new 'Stab in the Back' myth to haunt the next generation...
 
Looking at events, on July 20th the western allies had just broken out of Normandy and hedgerow country while Bagration was about halfway.
Would the new leadership be more inclined to withdraw from France, establish a defensive line behind the Ruhr and focus on defense against the Red Army?
 
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