2-26-36 coup succeeds in Japan, who is Japan at war with a year after

If 1936 Japan coup succeeds, who is Japan at war with a year later?

  • the USSR

    Votes: 5 19.2%
  • China

    Votes: 4 15.4%
  • the USSR and China

    Votes: 8 30.8%
  • the USSR and China and Britain, France and USA

    Votes: 3 11.5%
  • Nobody

    Votes: 6 23.1%

  • Total voters
    26

raharris1973

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The 2-26-36 coup attempt was by the Imperial Way Faction of the Army, in OTL it was suppressed and the leaders were privately executed by the military high command and Control Faction of the Army.

The first time I read about these groups, the main distinctions I heard were that the Imperial Way guys were more extreme, more socialist, focused on winning through "spirit" and anti-Soviet, whereas the Control Faction was more politically conventional, had more respect for material needs and limitations of the Army, and ended up leading the fight in China when that escalated in 1937.

So, if the coup succeeds and Imperial Way wins, does a "spirited" but underequipped Japanese throw itself into the buzz saw of the Soviet Army within a year? How badly would the Japanese be beaten and how fast? And how would the crushing of the Japanese Army, at least on the Asian mainland, be processed politically in Japan?

Or does it get even worse, does Japan get distracted and also find itself fighting China or the western countries at the same.

Might the Imperial Way government support radicals in the Navy and lead Japan into a war against everybody before 1939 even dawns? I would think without a raging Europe-wide war, the beatdown of Japan would come fast and hard, it would be sort of like a Boxer Rebellion, with battleships, aircraft carriers, monoplanes and (crappy) tanks. Various powers could get some war practice in even before Hitler can launch any wars in Europe.

Thoughts?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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So it looks like USSR and China is the top choice, at 6 votes.

Why is this such a popular choice?

And assuming there is a war like this, how does it start, with a Japanese attack on the USSR or Mongolia or China?

How long could the war last?

One factor about 1936, while the purges took Tukhachevsky and the Western Military District hierarchy by the end of that year 1936, the Far Eastern military district was untouched by them until 1938. The Soviets should be in pretty good shape having been built up quite a bit by 1936 compared w/ 1933, 1931 or 1929.
 
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