1st Philippine Republic survives. What are the implications?

@Namayan

So it's possible for the Hong Kong exiles to lobby for Britain's recognition, then?

And how would Thailand help the Philippines? They're sandwiched between two colonial powers at this time.

And what of France? They're a republic, after all. And they've previously set their sights at Basilan.
 
@Namayan

So it's possible for the Hong Kong exiles to lobby for Britain's recognition, then?

And how would Thailand help the Philippines? They're sandwiched between two colonial powers at this time.

And what of France? They're a republic, after all. And they've previously set their sights at Basilan.

With regards to Hong Kong exiles, I think it is far fetched. This means Aguinaldo is leading and has barely knowledge of international politics. No foreign government will support a government exile unless both their politics are aligned. Britain may support if Philippines had won in 1896 thus there was no Hong Kong exile or if British crave for Philippines/any revenge vs Spain. Achieving the latter is far harder than Philippines winning a local revolt without help.

Like I said, once you get a competent leader in Philippine revolt one thing will not lead to the other nor does that mean it will be the same timeline nor the same people at the helm.

Thailand template is more of how they were made as a bufferzone between Britain and France in OTL. They were sandwiched by British Burma/Malaya and French Indochina much like how OTL Philippines in 1890s was between Japanese Formosa, British Borneo.

With France, it is tied to the first point about Hong Kong. The contact that Philippines had was when Pedro Roxas and Juan Luna asked for France help in Hong Kong in 1897 which failed in OTL. So, in a way, you need to have Aguinaldo again at the helm to achieve this, just to fail and sign the Biak na Bato.

You need to get rid of Biak na Bato to even have a chance vs the Americans or vs the Spanish without outside help. Biak na Bato was crafted by the premiere Filipino turncoat of the time, Pedro Paterno.
 
I was talking about an ATL Hong Kong junta, that has more competent diplomats than OTL.

And how about an alternate Biak-na-Bato, one which would be more favorable to the revolutionaries?

Anyways, the Philippines as a buffer zone looks interesting. It may have to balance it's foreign policy.

PS: Who were the most competent Filipino diplomats at that time?
 
I was talking about an ATL Hong Kong junta, that has more competent diplomats than OTL.

And how about an alternate Biak-na-Bato, one which would be more favorable to the revolutionaries?

Anyways, the Philippines as a buffer zone looks interesting. It may have to balance it's foreign policy.

PS: Who were the most competent Filipino diplomats at that time?

The issue with dealing with Biak na Bato is that Aguinaldo and the Katipunan was losing the war. If you are losing the war, cannot have something in favor of your cause. And if you are winning, the lowest you can receive is independence.

Even an ATL Biak na Bato and ATL Hong Kong exile means your losing the war which means you have no leverage to have a better deal than OTL.

Another angle you can look is the secret negotiations between US and Spain for US to buy Cuba in 1896. Had this succeeded, this has a potential to butterfly Spanish-American war. So in a way, Philippine independence is assured without American invasion.
 
When in 1896 is this secret negotiation happen? I may explore this for my TL.

Morgan-Cameron resolution of US congress in 1896 is a place to start. Another is the 1854 Ostend manifesto for US to purchase Cuba. So in a sense US had already designs to purchase Cuba since 1854.
 
How about the Spanish seeks a ceasefire and promising the rebels to address their grievances? There's a big possibility that the ilustrados may try to convince the Katipuneros to agree to a peace agreement (a.k.a. the Pact of Biak-na-Bato). I really wanted the Biak-na-Bato to become the intermission between the Philippine Revolution and the Philippine War of Independence in my TL. Hehehe.

And how could the Philippines be included in the Teller Amendment? Hnw many Filipino expat are in the US at this time?
 
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Mercenarius

Banned
Make Biak-na-Bato a ceasefire agreement instead of a peace settlement. You'd just have to make the ensuing peace negotiations break down and you got yourself a return to hostilities (the War of Independence that you wanted).
 
How about the Spanish seeks a ceasefire and promising the rebels to address their grievances?

Biak na Bato was already this agreement.

And how could the Philippines be included in the Teller Amendment?

Earlier POD with Filipinos recognizing US as a possible ally.

Hnw many Filipino expats are in the US at this time?

OTL, No one significant to influence USA. The closest thing you got of recognizing US as a potential colonial Asian power is Rizal with Philippines 100 years hence.

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A key to a more successful revolt is Rizal living and actually siding with the Katipunan. He has the intellect, the foresight, the influence among the illustrados, the middle class, the insulares, the mestizos(therefore the Spanish Army/Navy) etc.. which neither Aguinaldo nor Bonifacio had which is crucial in winning vs Spain alone or have a fighting chance against USA.

If Rizal dies as OTL, the best key to winning is the insulares siding with the Katipunan. They both have the same grievances as the Katipunan. An example of an Insulares is Manuel Quezon(who's father used to be in the Spanish Army), who only joined in 1898. Which is why 1898 was more successful since you got Insulares and majority of the people joining.

Make Biak-na-Bato a ceasefire agreement instead of a peace settlement. You'd just have to make the ensuing peace negotiations break down and you got yourself a return to hostilities (the War of Independence that you wanted).

There is no way this will breakdown. Katipunan already lost and have no means or base of operations after the Battle of Perez Dasmariñas. Aguinaldo was negotiating with nothing with his paper tiger Republic in Biak na Bato.

Like I said before, a more successful Katipunan means no Biak na Bato. Biak na Bato is the result of losing at the Battle of Perez Dasmarinas. Without losing there, Aguinaldo will still be in control of Cavite and be based in Cavite El Viejo. Winning in Battle of Perez Dasmarinas vs Jose de Lachambre is ASB as long as you do not have the support of the Insulares or any great power by the time of the battle.
 

Mercenarius

Banned
Like I said before, a more successful Katipunan means no Biak na Bato.

But a successful Katipunan could also prompt the Spaniards to sue for peace. And with the ilustrados at the helm of the revolution OTL, they would definitely take that offer.
 
But a successful Katipunan could also prompt the Spaniards to sue for peace. And with the ilustrados at the helm of the revolution OTL, they would definitely take that offer.

A successful Katipunan will sue peace after achieving military victory. If you can beat a caliber like Gen Jose Lachambre and his army, you can take Manila by force. The illustrados can negotiate, have the talent and the knowledge to win but lacks the logistics and the firepower. That's why its either a great power or the Insulares will provide that firepower and logistics.

Once you have the support of the Insulares, the Spanish army/navy in East indies loyalty is now in question and has a possibility to turn against Spain.

An OTL template for this is the Mexican war of independence, wherein you had Criolles along with the Mexican natives winning that war headon vs Spain without outside help.
 

Mercenarius

Banned
If you can beat a caliber like Gen Jose Lachambre and his army, you can take Manila by force.

Can you think of any person who could possibly match Lachambre in battle (aside from Antonio Luna)?

Once you have the support of the Insulares, the Spanish army/navy in East indies loyalty is now in question and has a possibility to turn against Spain.

I think Rizal is the key for this. That is, if he survives.
 
Can you think of any person who could possibly match Lachambre in battle (aside from Antonio Luna)?

Rizal, but by OTL perez dasmarinas battle he was already dead. You dont have to win head to head. A group of disatisfied cazadores members of his army can turn that tide. You can also make Lachambre turn as a rebel if you give a lot of incentive for him to turn. You also got hundreds of artillery pieces under his army to worry about which must be captured by the rebels.

I think Rizal is the key for this. That is, if he survives.
It is a key, but it wouldnt be a the main factor. The insulares plight has always been discrimination by their peninsulares peers. Amplifying that discrimination will give them a lot of reason to rebel again.
 
Isn't the best way to do this simply foregoing the last minute change to the Treaty of Paris ceding the Philippines to the UNited States?
 
Isn't the best way to do this simply foregoing the last minute change to the Treaty of Paris ceding the Philippines to the UNited States?

If you can change the Manifest Destiny of the USA, change the outlook of the leaders. The US already had a few thousand troops occupying Manila by December. President McKinley was already convince and decided to occupy Philippines by December 1898/Treaty of Paris.

Wolff, Leon (2006). Little Brown Brother: How the United States Purchased and Pacified the Philippine Islands at the Century's Turn

William McKinley."The Acquisition of the Philippines". Papers Relating to Foreign Affairs, 1898 (U.S. Department of State): 904–908
 
So, assuming the leadership is different, is the 1897 POD plausible?

And, if war is inevitable, can a well-equipped, well-trained and well-prepared Revolutionary Army win the Philippine-American War, or at least grinds it down into a stalemate?
 
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So, assuming the leadership is different, is the 1897 POD plausible?

And, if war is inevitable, can a well-equipped, well-trained and well-prepared Revolutionary Army win the Philippine-American War, or at least grinds it down into a stalemate?

Yes, it can win. The Filipinos can take more casualties than the Americans if need be and Filipinos will keep fighting while back at US, the war will lose popularity much like Vietnam once those bodybags start piling up.

The Americans at the start of the war had only Intramuros as a base. The Filipinos can always lock Manila bay from any further landings and use any batteries in Correigedor and any batters protecting the bay as defense along with activating the minefiled protecting the entrance which the Spanish forgot to activate. If you have significant artillery pieces like e.g. 100+ artillery pieces taken from army of Jose Lachambre, you can actually take Intramuros by force from USA.

In conscript terms, at maximum Philippines based on OTL population, Philippines can conscript around 700k with around half of it in Luzon. While US can conscript more than that, their commitment is dependent on the popularity of the war back at home. So if US starts getting 60k deaths and wiped/captured the US Asiatic fleet docked in manila bay, that war is almost over in favor of the Philippines.
 
If you can change the Manifest Destiny of the USA, change the outlook of the leaders. The US already had a few thousand troops occupying Manila by December. President McKinley was already convince and decided to occupy Philippines by December 1898/Treaty of Paris.

Wolff, Leon (2006). Little Brown Brother: How the United States Purchased and Pacified the Philippine Islands at the Century's Turn

William McKinley."The Acquisition of the Philippines". Papers Relating to Foreign Affairs, 1898 (U.S. Department of State): 904–908

It already was not unprecedented for U.S. forces to withdraw from a place they held. Simply decide that Congress has better uses for the money, and forego acquiring the the archipelago formally, or take only one or two islands from it for basing.
 
It already was not unprecedented for U.S. forces to withdraw from a place they held. Simply decide that Congress has better uses for the money, and forego acquiring the the archipelago formally, or take only one or two islands from it for basing.

A POD in 1898, Well, you need to change the composition of the US Congress as well as those who are in favor of imperialism. US Congress were mostly pro-imperialist. The US Supreme court also supported this when Constitionality of it was raised as the US Constitution only applied to US Citizens as applied in Insular cases.

The Senate voting was not even close in OTL, 57-27 in favor of imperialism or in this case the Treaty of Paris.

Coletta, Paolo E., ‘McKinley, the Peace Negotiations, and the Acquisition of the Philippines’, Pacific Historical Review 30

1898 OTL US government membership needs a total overhaul or need to be reeducated about liberty and freedom. US back in 1890s embraces imperialism and aggressive expansion like People's Republic of China nowadays or Imperial Japan in 1940s.
 
A POD in 1898, Well, you need to change the composition of the US Congress as well as those who are in favor of imperialism. US Congress were mostly pro-imperialist. The US Supreme court also supported this when Constitionality of it was raised as the US Constitution only applied to US Citizens as applied in Insular cases.

The Senate voting was not even close in OTL, 57-27 in favor of imperialism or in this case the Treaty of Paris.

Coletta, Paolo E., ‘McKinley, the Peace Negotiations, and the Acquisition of the Philippines’, Pacific Historical Review 30

1898 OTL US government membership needs a total overhaul or need to be reeducated about liberty and freedom. US back in 1890s embraces imperialism and aggressive expansion like People's Republic of China nowadays or Imperial Japan in 1940s.

I'm not sure which of these points is true of the Philippines specifically, given that the U.S. gained other areas it would anyway in this timeline. Have you considered that the vore for ratification of the treaty was as narrow as it was because the Philippines were included?
 
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