1st Philippine Republic survives. What are the implications?

@Namayan

That's exactly one of the scenario I previously thought, although I'm still unsure if a quicker war of independence (mid-1897 to before May 1898) is plausible or bordering ASB already.

Well, you need to POD much earlier. You need to have all the Philippines resources in 1896 much like in 1898. Whatever happened in 1898 can happen in 1896 or ealrier.

That means more weapons, help of the ilustrados, help of all Insulares. The issue with the revolt of Aguinaldo or Bonifacio in 1896 is that either one of their organizations are not fit to fight a competent european/american army.

So the katipunan needs to include more illustrados, Insulares than OTL membership. Also, Your timeline in another thread of change of heart of the local garrison is also possible since this has happened since Novales revolt in 1823. So, a full or half Spanish army and navy fighting for the Philippines is a possibility, which considers themselves Filipinos regardless if they are Spanish blood. So any earlier POD until 1823 is even feasible but it wont involve Katipunan or any 1890s hero.
 

Cryostorm

Monthly Donor
What if you have the Teller amendment flip Cuba for the Philippines? It makes more sense to annex Cuba (much closer and the United States' natural stomping ground) and guarantee the independence of a friendly Filipino republic (since a native government will have an easier time ruling the Philippines than one over three thousand miles away) in exchange for one or two ports.
 
An independent Philippines might keep the US out of WWII a little longer. After all, it was invaded in part because it was in Japan's way when they grabbed for the oil further south. Who knows, Japan might have grabbed the islands long before 1941. If Germany took over in the early 20th Century, Japan might have gotten a League of Nations mandate over the area, or shared one with Britain.
 
My understanding is that the Phippines were a lasr minute add to the Treaty. So, the best POD here is for the archipelago to not ne annexed by the U.S. and Spain decide nor to contest the movement seeking independence.
 
What if you have the Teller amendment flip Cuba for the Philippines? It makes more sense to annex Cuba (much closer and the United States' natural stomping ground) and guarantee the independence of a friendly Filipino republic (since a native government will have an easier time ruling the Philippines than one over three thousand miles away) in exchange for one or two ports.

This is possible. The main difference between Cuba and Philippines is Cuban propagandist were predominant in US media years before 1890s while Philippines was non existent. Someone in the Philippines has got to realize that a farflung nation will interfere compared to great powers nearer like Britain(Via Borneo) or Japan(via Taiwan). US was not even considered Great power until it won in the Spanish American war. However, this would require a POD earlier than 1898/1899.

An independent Philippines might keep the US out of WWII a little longer. After all, it was invaded in part because it was in Japan's way when they grabbed for the oil further south. Who knows, Japan might have grabbed the islands long before 1941. If Germany took over in the early 20th Century, Japan might have gotten a League of Nations mandate over the area, or shared one with Britain.

You have to realize that Philippines aint the Philippines today which is very pro-American with a predominant English speaking and American culture. Philippines back then has a much closer affinity to Japan and Germany than any other great power with a Hispanic background. Every educated Filipino wanted to emulate Germany back then.

It totally depends on how Philippine relationship/alliance will last with Japan from 1890s. Japan did attack Pearl Harbor. Pearl Harbor was also a threat that can go directly to mainland Japan.
 
It totally depends on how Philippine relationship/alliance will last with Japan from 1890s. Japan did attack Pearl Harbor. Pearl Harbor was also a threat that can go directly to mainland Japan.

They attacked Oahu to neutralize the 7th Fleet so it couldn't sail west and interfere, that is protect the Philippines. If they were independent then there would really not a whole lot of incentive to protect them. So there would be no reason to attack Oahu, at least not in 1941.

If the Philippines were Japanese or pro-Japanese, then Japan might be able to take control of Borneo (or whatever island produced the most oil at the time; I think Java had the best infrastructure) like they did Indochina.
 
They attacked Oahu to neutralize the 7th Fleet so it couldn't sail west and interfere, that is protect the Philippines. If they were independent then there would really not a whole lot of incentive to protect them. So there would be no reason to attack Oahu, at least not in 1941.

If the Philippines were Japanese or pro-Japanese, then Japan might be able to take control of Borneo (or whatever island produced the most oil at the time; I think Java had the best infrastructure) like they did Indochina.

Sorry 7th fleet? The 7th fleet did not exist in 1941.

Otl Philippines was defensible in world war 2. All you needed was equipment to reach the islands which was delayed one month in US ports before Pearl Harbor. Once you have those, USAFFE will have the tools needed to stop any invasion and hold up until the end of the war. You also had the local commonwealth army equipped which meant you can draft millions and local natural resources are abundant (minus oil) for war. In otl 1941, the US Asiatic fleet based in Manila didn't even engage heavily the Japanese navy at the expense of MacArthurs anger.

Depending on how long the OTL Anglo Japan alliance would last, Borneo is out of the question until that alliance ends. The best you can probably have, without any Spanish interference, is a relook on otl britains offer in 1892 to new independent Philippines to populate Borneo in 1900 or onward.
 
The best you can probably have, without any Spanish interference, is a relook on otl britains offer in 1892 to new independent Philippines to populate Borneo in 1900 or onward.

Where did you get that info? And if the Brits really did offer that, what did they want in return?
 
Where did you get that info? And if the Brits really did offer that, what did they want in return?

Rizal, to be leased or sold 999 years or permanent settlement. North Borneo Company need people in North Borneo.

There are a lot of info about Rizals North Borneo Project but the Official info from the Philippine government:

http://nhcp.gov.ph/rizals-settlement-project-in-sabbah/

So in a sense, if this was offered to Rizal OTL, it can be offered again to the independent ATL Philippines.
 
If the US decides a protectorate is preferable to a colony, it might work out some kind of deal - Philippine internal autonomy, but foreign policy controlled or modified by a US Political Officer or Advisor along with trade policy favorable to American investors and exporters. The protectorate could last several decades before being abandoned sometime in the 1920s or 1930s.

If there is no American protectorate, there is a high possibility of a Japanese or German invasion sometime between 1900-1920, probably more the Japanese using the same tactics it did in Korea.
 
If there is no American protectorate, there is a high possibility of a Japanese or German invasion sometime between 1900-1920, probably more the Japanese using the same tactics it did in Korea.

This is possible however small it is. Philippines aint the same country like Korea in the 1890s. You also have to consider the diplomatic connections of Philippines back in those days with Germany and Japan which is favorable to the Philippines. You also have to consider that Philippines aint a backward Asian 1890s country. It is a western nation/hispanic nation in the 1890s so it is more like a south american country which can deal with the great powers diplomatically or militarily as long they can get their act straight. In OTL, it did ally with the US during its revolt against Spain. In OTL Philippine American war, they nominally allied with Japan and Sun Yat Sen. Japan did try to send weapons to Philippines during the Philippines American war. OTL Military, it expelled Spain inland a couple of months without any land army help from the US not unlike in Cuba where US did all the land battle heavy lifting winning.

America aint the beacon of freedom in the 1890s like it was in 1945.
 
If the US decides a protectorate is preferable to a colony, it might work out some kind of deal - Philippine internal autonomy, but foreign policy controlled or modified by a US Political Officer or Advisor along with trade policy favorable to American investors and exporters. The protectorate could last several decades before being abandoned sometime in the 1920s or 1930s.

How is this any different from the OTL Commonwealth exactly? :p
 
It arrives 37 years earlier, and without a quarter of a million deaths during the Philippine Insurrection?

total dilemma.

In order to have an otl commonwealth style, USA needs to have control of the whole islands which it did not have OTL from 1898 to 1901. In order for USA to control It needs to kill the 1st republic which requires to kill a lot.

If USA does not attack, the Philippines remains independent.

I think what you meant is protection like Cuba, but Philippines remains independent. it is possible but you need to butterfly McKinley, teddy Roosevelt and all those in favor of colonizing Philippines. This means weakening the manifest destiny philosophy of the USA. In a sense, the American Anti-imperialist league wins (which includes Mark Twain) over McKinley and teddy Roosevelt.

This is the assumption that Philippine side has all the same subpar leaders since you need Aguinaldo in the Philippine side since it was he who led to lose vs Spain in 1896-7, and he who decided and allied with the USA. Otherwise, if you have competent Philippine revolt leaders, a USA alliance is almost an impossibility due to Philippines could have been independent by 1896 or earlier.
 
@Namayan

Do you think it's plausible for a Filipino victory by the end of 1897 or 1st quarter of 1898? (I still want June 12 to be the independence day.)

And what should the League do in order to successfully push their cause? They're pretty strong before the Fil-Am War.
 
@Namayan

Do you think it's plausible for a Filipino victory by the end of 1897 or 1st quarter of 1898? (I still want June 12 to be the independence day.)

Filipino victory has been possible since Napoleonic wars. All you need are capable, crucial people joining the rebels. Disgruntled soldiers in the spanish army or navy joining the Katipunan rebels is a possibility. If you look at Novales revolt in 1823, all he needed was his brother to join his revolt to succeed and Philippines might have been a different place from OTL.

You need to change the OTL leader of the Katipunan, have at least the support of half the navy and half the army, have the illustrados join the cause whether its financial or physical, criolle/insulares rebellion. But the timeline can go beyond earlier than 1897 or 1896 for success even if Katipunan is not involved.

And what should the League do in order to successfully push their cause? They're pretty strong before the Fil-Am War.

The league had prominent members but was not influential. Its most prominent politician was former president Cleveland, a democrat. Both McKinley and Roosevelt are Republicans. So Republican membership is vital.

The most prominent wealthy person is Carnegie. If you put all the richest Americans to its membership, Morgan and Rockefeller, that is quite a pull. Especially Morgan since he financed McKinley's run for office.
 

Mercenarius

Banned
How about William Day successfully convincing McKinley to retain only 1 or two bases and returning the rest to Spain (and let the revolutionaries finish the job)?
 
How about William Day successfully convincing McKinley to retain only 1 or two bases and returning the rest to Spain (and let the revolutionaries finish the job)?

Yes, this is possible. I doubt the US will return Spanish East Indies to Spain when Spain has no more control of the islands by late OTL 1898 even if how small it is. The only way to expel the locals is to invade.

US can probably take Subic much like Guantanamo.

Is some sort of "Triple Intervention" (or something like that) possible?

It is possible. It totally depends on who the Philippine diplomats will court and do politics with. Britain and Japan are the closest via their colonies proximity to the Spanish East Indies. Germany has connections via the local illustrados.

Britain is the best bet for non US interference since they have the largest navy and the superpower at the time. Plus, you can explore the North Borneo colonization again. Just need to send diplomats and court Britain years earlier than 1898/99. You can view the South American template for this British interference as your basis since Philippines is closer culturally and historically to South America.

You can also use the Thailand template for the Philippines making it the bufferzone for Japan and Britain.
 
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