1st Philippine Republic survives. What are the implications?

In this scenario, the Philippine Republic retains independence by any means plausible. POD is from 1896-99. The question is, what are the implications of this event in Asia?
 
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Pretty simple to have the Republic last, just don't have the Americans fight the Spanish. While prior to the SAW there was a truce of sorts between the Spanish and Aguinaldo with the latter in Hong Kong, it wasn't going to last regardless if the Yanquis arrived on the scene in Manilla or not.

The Filipinos like the Japanese would be an example of anti-colonialism in Asia though if its government doesn't maintain stabilty less so Because the islands are culturally distinct from the rest of Asia I don't suspect it would bolster the idealism of anticolonial movements too much. If Pan-Asianism is your angle, then if the Japanese get into clash with the European powers and isn't the horrid late Empire we know OTL the Filinpinos could join in on a potential war of liberation of their Asian brethern. The only other bit I can imagine would be the Sultanate of Sulu, it famously has claims in Borneo, something the Filiinos could cry about to the Dutch to little avail I suppose.
 
The POD is late 1898 to 1899. TBH, I'm leaning more on 1899 when the Fil-Am War happens OTL but in this scenario it didn't and instead some sort of agreement between the Philippines & US was made.

And I'm not focusing in the Pan-Asianism wank, I just wanted to know the possible ripple effects.
 
Heh... I don't really see why the Americans would act different towards the Filipinos. They were treated as poor allies, if I am not mistaken the Republic never got official recognition by the Yanquis. When the SAW started the Philippines weren't seen as the next thing for American to gobble up, Manilla was seen as a possible center of a Spanish attack. After Dewey secured the city progressively the Yanquis moved towards hostile relations with the Filipino Republic, eventually starting the Filipino-American war.

To avoid the FAW, for starters you would need a different American President, one who openly courts the Filipinos, which would not be hard to do. From there it is pretty simple, while Manilla would be garrisoned by the Americans, the leadership of the Philippine Republic would be seen as the legitimate government over the Islands. Post war the Americans leave, or perhaps make a fuss about wanting a naval cession.

I know that isn't what you wanted to hear, back to your original question.. As I said, even with the Filipino nation free it would not cause too many ripples in Asia. Let me get an Indon in here, as Indonesia is the only likely place the ripples would go tp.
 
Indische Party, the first movement to advocate radical nationalism only got formed in 1912, but with independent Philippines I guess it can serve as an inspiration. Perhaps Douwess Dekker will form it slightly earlier. I can see independent Philippines inviting scorn from colonial powers too, being likely a potential destination for dissidents to take refuge and set up base of operation. Even Tan Malaka stopped there for a while in OTL. Philippines won't impart drastic ripples throughout Asia but I guess it'll kick off a gradual snowball effect.
 
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So McKinley really had imperialist leanings? I thought it was Teddy.

Looks like a Vietnam-style war is the only option. :D
 
That was OTL, and the Filipinos lost. Either cut out the Americans fully, or have leadership that doesnt entertain dreams of expanding the Pacific Empire of America so much.
 
The POD is late 1898 to 1899. TBH, I'm leaning more on 1899 when the Fil-Am War happens OTL but in this scenario it didn't and instead some sort of agreement between the Philippines & US was made.

And I'm not focusing in the Pan-Asianism wank, I just wanted to know the possible ripple effects.
Darn. That's what Hetalia likes, and it's rather more of a MaPhilIndo (Maharlika) wank. :p

Will sub this, and see what happens. :cool:
 
Does outside pressure count?

If the Americans are in the Philippines and want to stay, there would be little chance to change that. Unless they get tied up in some Pacific war, and lose, I don't see how any pressure would work besides, who could even care enough about the Philippines to rattle their sabres?

Who do you have in mind, personally?

Well, there is always William Bryan Jennings.... :rolleyes:

For a Republican there is always Thomas Brackett Reed, but I can't be of much with the minute of Gilded Age politics.
 
I don't see how any pressure would work besides, who could even care enough about the Philippines to rattle their sabres?

UK (probably for Mindanao's rubber resource), France ("defenders of republicanism" :D, more colonies) and Germany (we need MOAR colonies!).

IIRC, in OTL the German EA Squadron sent 2 cruisers to Manila a few days after the Battle of Manila Bay. It was reported that they had a standoff with Dewey's fleet stationed there.

Looks like WJB is the most plausible option. Is there any TL about him becoming POTUS? Could you please give some links?
 
In this scenario, the Philippine Republic retains independence, by any means plausible, post 1898/99. The question is, what are the implications of this event in Asia?

1899 pod is pushing it.

There is no way Philippines is going to win vs USA if you have people like Aguinaldo and his supporters who have no idea fighting a competent enemy. need those European trained and educated people up the helm who has an idea on logistics, military strategy and without aguinaldos international politics guilliablness. Aquinaldo also has always focused on his political survival with deaths of bonifacho and luna under his radar.

Your pod in 1896 was much doable.

If successful, The implications on Asia depends on how far the Philippines will go as a modern country and who is leading.

The worst Philippines can do is really influence colonies to rebel. Otl, sun yat sen did form an alliance with the 1st republic so China's revolt will be much earlier with an ally and staging point in Manila.

I don't think the Dutch would even have say on north Borneo since it is under British protection nor SUlu was represented in the 1st republic. The Philippines at this time controlled otl Philippines except Muslim Mindanao. Philippines at this time include also Guam and other Spanish East Indies islands. So in a sense, atl Philippines is very different from otl Philippines in which land area is being occupied.

At best, Philippines 1930s or later can challenge minor European powers like the Dutch military. So liberating or infusing otl Indonesia is a possibility. Since Anglo-japan alliance is near timeframe, expect the 1st republic to align with both.
 
@Namayan

Let's assume that the Philippines had a different leadership in 1898-99 (clue: he has an international harem :D) and Span-Am War still happens, would the US have a different stand towards the islands?
 
UK (probably for Mindanao's rubber resource), France ("defenders of republicanism" :D, more colonies) and Germany (we need MOAR colonies!).

IIRC, in OTL the German EA Squadron sent 2 cruisers to Manila a few days after the Battle of Manila Bay. It was reported that they had a standoff with Dewey's fleet stationed there.

Besides a war as I said, I don't see where this sudden interest on the part of the British or French materialises from.

Namayan, you are quite correct about Sabah, I keep thinking that Boreno was entirely under Dutch sway for some reason. :eek:
 
@Namayan

Let's assume that the Philippines had a different leadership in 1898-99 (clue: he has an international harem :D) and Span-Am War still happens, would the US have a different stand towards the islands?

If you have competent leadership for local Philippine leaders in 1896, the Spanish American war wont even reach the Philippines. By 1896, Philippines would be a free and independent country. For comparisons sake in OTL, from Battle of manila bay(may 1), upon the start of Aguinaldos new revolt until total liberation of Philippine in August 13 of the same year. So a successful revolt in the Philippines can happen within months.

USA wont even have a reason to go to Philippines nor a place to dock their ships or unload their troops not unlike in OTL where they occupied Manila before the locals.

1898/9 is a much harder wank for Philippines. This is the assumption that 1896 was a failure like OTL. Occupying all of Philippines before the Americans is a must. A disciplined, well equipped and well trained army is also a must vs the Americans which requires a lot of wanking locally on who is leading what which will bring you back to 1896.

Philippine diplomats or Philippine illustrados are much closer to Japan or their German counterparts so protectorate or alliance is a definite possibility. OTL 1890s, Philippine diplomats/illustrados had no close connection whatsoever with Britain, France or USA with the exception of Britain offering Rizal North Borneo to be populated by Filipinos while Rizal was in Dapitan. The British were in favor of this while the Spaniards were against it.
 
If you have competent leadership for local Philippine leaders in 1896, the Spanish American war wont even reach the Philippines. By 1896, Philippines would be a free and independent country. For comparisons sake in OTL, from Battle of manila bay(may 1), upon the start of Aguinaldos new revolt until total liberation of Philippine in August 13 of the same year. So a successful revolt in the Philippines can happen within months.

USA wont even have a reason to go to Philippines nor a place to dock their ships or unload their troops not unlike in OTL where they occupied Manila before the locals.

1898/9 is a much harder wank for Philippines. This is the assumption that 1896 was a failure like OTL. Occupying all of Philippines before the Americans is a must. A disciplined, well equipped and well trained army is also a must vs the Americans which requires a lot of wanking locally on who is leading what which will bring you back to 1896.

Philippine diplomats or Philippine illustrados are much closer to Japan or their German counterparts so protectorate or alliance is a definite possibility. OTL 1890s, Philippine diplomats/illustrados had no close connection whatsoever with Britain, France or USA with the exception of Britain offering Rizal North Borneo to be populated by Filipinos while Rizal was in Dapitan. The British were in favor of this while the Spaniards were against it.
This is the best case scenario, and what coincidence that the (alternate) independence day is on my birthday. :D
 
@Namayan

That's exactly one of the scenario I previously thought, although I'm still unsure if a quicker war of independence (mid-1897 to before May 1898) is plausible or bordering ASB already.
 
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