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Initial THOUGHTS


Russia
- Afghanistan, Lahore, Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Kashgaria, Kalat
- Alaska

Japan
- Maritime Provinces, Manchuria, Korea, Inner Mongolia, Shantung
- Okinawa, Formosa, Fukien

Spain
- the Philippines, Carolines, Marianas
- Cuba, Puerto Rico

Mexico
- Californias, Nuevo Mexico

Deseret

Tejas

So - what if the USA fought a full-blown war with Britain over Madawaska (Aroostook) 1827+

US forces occupy New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island

The war drags on long enough to coalesce with tensions in the Med

Britain was distracted enough by its war with the USA to properly promote its interests

They will still keep a force in the Med, but Russian interests would prevail
British opposition could lead to a war with Russia, siding with the USA

The revolution in France does occur, but Belgium is born with a Bourbon king

The Polish Revolt helps lead Russia to agreeing peace with Britain

Needs a lot of work on it, but could be a viable timeline...

- - -

I always love knock-on effects

So, Britain has lost some provinces but the USA has gained some which will be hard to administer, Loyalists etc

USA presses its claims against Britain primarily, in Oregon etc
Tensions throughout the 1830s

Mexico is supported by Britain
as is Texas which chooses independence over annexation, knowing Mexico will back it with British support

California Gold ?
Under Mexican sovereignty
The same for the Mormons
- independence in exchange for Mexican suzerainty (foreign affairs, service etc)

Indian Mutiny
- Russia supports the Mughals

= second Anglo-Russian War

Taiping
- Russian annexes Kashgaria
but is focused on Central Asia not the Pacific so no Putiatin

Meiji Restoration

Mapuche
- French intervention in Patagonia/Araucania rather than Mexico
- forces Argentina and Chile to recognise their independence

- - -

I would like to take a step back and make the POD Iturbide retaining the Mexican throne - this would then have slow butterflies

Britain and the USA would initially oppose any European (ie Spanish) intervention against Mexico
But during the course of the 1820s, they would fall out

British mercantile interests could lead to British recognition of the Mexican Empire, and aid to Iturbide, especially if he is facing Spanish attacks

Maybe Jackson wins the presidency the first time he goes after it ?

- - -

Lots of diverse elements
but I want to change the world !

USA, Russia and Mexico all have eagles, but I think I am a bit done with that metaphor !

Still the timeline needs a name...

- - -

1848 is a question

I still fancy pushing the Bourbons out of France and getting the Bonapartes back

Problems in Germany and Austria work well too

This would come between California Gold and the Indian Mutiny

Maybe Britain has it worse, and the Chartists are fighting against a reactionary goverment come to power in the wake of the 1830s defeats and setbacks

It would be great for the map if we could see
- German Empire
- independent Hungary

What to do with Russia is of course a question, but it could well be taking advantage of British distraction to advance its aims in Afghanistan, also defeating Persia, maybe also earlier than OTL acting in Khiva, Bokhara and Kokhand

Thus is not available to help Austria, does not fall out with the Ottomans and risk war with them, and just pacifies Moldavia, whilst Wallachia as per OTL is a tame affair, but there is no Transylvanian intervention

How would butterflies affect the German Confederation ?
- Belgium is a Bourbon monarchy
- Britain is seeing the same kind of revolutions as most of Europe
- Greece is a state created to Russian plans, not a Bavarian kingdom

Its probably worth stepping back and looking at Egypt c 1840 and what became of that crisis in this timeline ?
Bourbon France is probably better placed than defeated now reactionary Britain
If Russia backs France, then Egypt will get her way
The Ottomans will have to accept defeat, lose Syria and Palestine permanently and accept Egyptian independence

This of course would be a serious blow to them
Maybe we would see a mid-1840s war against Greece
Russia could act as a "neutral" arbitor here

Thus by 1848, French prestige actually would be increased, but in the face of hunger and economic difficulties it would probably look as if French foreign policy and investment in Egypt has been the result of taking the eye off domestic problems, and paying too much attention to somewhere other than France herself

It doesn't change 1848, but it changes the map :)

- - -

Can we impact any of 1848 by these changes ?

Well possibly...
The Russian vision for Greece may well have ended up with a continuous agitation
In 1848, with Russia backing the Ottomans in the Principalities, this may spill over into mercenary support for Italian unification

Thus Garibaldi is reinforced by a Greek Legion, or some sort of thing

Radetzky doesn't win against Piedmont-Sardinia, because the Nationalist forces have got into action first
But at the same time, the Savoyards are weakened by their reliance upon their Nationalist allies

Hungary establishes a stable independence

The Habsburgs are chased from Vienna again
and struggle to get it back as 1848 closes

In Frankfurt, the various bodies push ahead with a Gross Deutsch solution

How to make this work out ?
Obviously they need a figurehead emperor
and at the same time, also need Austrian agreement

One could see Austrian deputies being of a more GrossDeutsch mind if they are sent by a quasi-republican government acting in the name of the people, whilst the Habsburgs fight a battle to retake Vienna

If the Hungarians adopt maybe the Prince of . . . oh damn, forgot where ! It has an L at the start ! Kossuth was gonna ask him cos he was related to the Russians, and might be acceptable to them.. .. .. to be King, then if Russia DOES recognise them, Hungary would be freed to aid other anti-Habsburg forces (presumably as part of its campaign to solidify its rule over Croatia) - its either Leuchtenberg or Hohenlohe-Langenburg, I need to check!

Ah, if its the former, its a Beauharnais and that WOULD make perfect sense here !

How do induce the King of Prussia to accept the crown ?
Without his acceptance, Prussia will remain as a rival centre of gravity and eventually destroy the dream

- - -

What happens in Britain in 1848 ?

Not asked so much for its own sake as for whether this could have any knock-ons for Prussia...

- - -

Well, anyway here is a timeline presented in NON-LINEAR fashion !

Enjoy, correct and suggest please :)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
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