19th century timeline discussion - help organise me !

Initial THOUGHTS


Russia
- Afghanistan, Lahore, Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Kashgaria, Kalat
- Alaska

Japan
- Maritime Provinces, Manchuria, Korea, Inner Mongolia, Shantung
- Okinawa, Formosa, Fukien

Spain
- the Philippines, Carolines, Marianas
- Cuba, Puerto Rico

Mexico
- Californias, Nuevo Mexico

Deseret

Tejas

So - what if the USA fought a full-blown war with Britain over Madawaska (Aroostook) 1827+

US forces occupy New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island

The war drags on long enough to coalesce with tensions in the Med

Britain was distracted enough by its war with the USA to properly promote its interests

They will still keep a force in the Med, but Russian interests would prevail
British opposition could lead to a war with Russia, siding with the USA

The revolution in France does occur, but Belgium is born with a Bourbon king

The Polish Revolt helps lead Russia to agreeing peace with Britain

Needs a lot of work on it, but could be a viable timeline...

- - -

I always love knock-on effects

So, Britain has lost some provinces but the USA has gained some which will be hard to administer, Loyalists etc

USA presses its claims against Britain primarily, in Oregon etc
Tensions throughout the 1830s

Mexico is supported by Britain
as is Texas which chooses independence over annexation, knowing Mexico will back it with British support

California Gold ?
Under Mexican sovereignty
The same for the Mormons
- independence in exchange for Mexican suzerainty (foreign affairs, service etc)

Indian Mutiny
- Russia supports the Mughals

= second Anglo-Russian War

Taiping
- Russian annexes Kashgaria
but is focused on Central Asia not the Pacific so no Putiatin

Meiji Restoration

Mapuche
- French intervention in Patagonia/Araucania rather than Mexico
- forces Argentina and Chile to recognise their independence

- - -

I would like to take a step back and make the POD Iturbide retaining the Mexican throne - this would then have slow butterflies

Britain and the USA would initially oppose any European (ie Spanish) intervention against Mexico
But during the course of the 1820s, they would fall out

British mercantile interests could lead to British recognition of the Mexican Empire, and aid to Iturbide, especially if he is facing Spanish attacks

Maybe Jackson wins the presidency the first time he goes after it ?

- - -

Lots of diverse elements
but I want to change the world !

USA, Russia and Mexico all have eagles, but I think I am a bit done with that metaphor !

Still the timeline needs a name...

- - -

1848 is a question

I still fancy pushing the Bourbons out of France and getting the Bonapartes back

Problems in Germany and Austria work well too

This would come between California Gold and the Indian Mutiny

Maybe Britain has it worse, and the Chartists are fighting against a reactionary goverment come to power in the wake of the 1830s defeats and setbacks

It would be great for the map if we could see
- German Empire
- independent Hungary

What to do with Russia is of course a question, but it could well be taking advantage of British distraction to advance its aims in Afghanistan, also defeating Persia, maybe also earlier than OTL acting in Khiva, Bokhara and Kokhand

Thus is not available to help Austria, does not fall out with the Ottomans and risk war with them, and just pacifies Moldavia, whilst Wallachia as per OTL is a tame affair, but there is no Transylvanian intervention

How would butterflies affect the German Confederation ?
- Belgium is a Bourbon monarchy
- Britain is seeing the same kind of revolutions as most of Europe
- Greece is a state created to Russian plans, not a Bavarian kingdom

Its probably worth stepping back and looking at Egypt c 1840 and what became of that crisis in this timeline ?
Bourbon France is probably better placed than defeated now reactionary Britain
If Russia backs France, then Egypt will get her way
The Ottomans will have to accept defeat, lose Syria and Palestine permanently and accept Egyptian independence

This of course would be a serious blow to them
Maybe we would see a mid-1840s war against Greece
Russia could act as a "neutral" arbitor here

Thus by 1848, French prestige actually would be increased, but in the face of hunger and economic difficulties it would probably look as if French foreign policy and investment in Egypt has been the result of taking the eye off domestic problems, and paying too much attention to somewhere other than France herself

It doesn't change 1848, but it changes the map :)

- - -

Can we impact any of 1848 by these changes ?

Well possibly...
The Russian vision for Greece may well have ended up with a continuous agitation
In 1848, with Russia backing the Ottomans in the Principalities, this may spill over into mercenary support for Italian unification

Thus Garibaldi is reinforced by a Greek Legion, or some sort of thing

Radetzky doesn't win against Piedmont-Sardinia, because the Nationalist forces have got into action first
But at the same time, the Savoyards are weakened by their reliance upon their Nationalist allies

Hungary establishes a stable independence

The Habsburgs are chased from Vienna again
and struggle to get it back as 1848 closes

In Frankfurt, the various bodies push ahead with a Gross Deutsch solution

How to make this work out ?
Obviously they need a figurehead emperor
and at the same time, also need Austrian agreement

One could see Austrian deputies being of a more GrossDeutsch mind if they are sent by a quasi-republican government acting in the name of the people, whilst the Habsburgs fight a battle to retake Vienna

If the Hungarians adopt maybe the Prince of . . . oh damn, forgot where ! It has an L at the start ! Kossuth was gonna ask him cos he was related to the Russians, and might be acceptable to them.. .. .. to be King, then if Russia DOES recognise them, Hungary would be freed to aid other anti-Habsburg forces (presumably as part of its campaign to solidify its rule over Croatia) - its either Leuchtenberg or Hohenlohe-Langenburg, I need to check!

Ah, if its the former, its a Beauharnais and that WOULD make perfect sense here !

How do induce the King of Prussia to accept the crown ?
Without his acceptance, Prussia will remain as a rival centre of gravity and eventually destroy the dream

- - -

What happens in Britain in 1848 ?

Not asked so much for its own sake as for whether this could have any knock-ons for Prussia...

- - -

Well, anyway here is a timeline presented in NON-LINEAR fashion !

Enjoy, correct and suggest please :)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The revolution in France does occur, but Belgium is born with a Bourbon king

This looks hard. The main interest for the British during the Belgian revolt was to prevent Belgium (or at least the Belgian coastline) to become French. I am not certain if the British would accept a French king on the throne of Belgium, that would be too close to a French-Belgian union. You could of course have a different kind of Belgium not including the coastline (basicly just the Walloon parts of Belgium and Brussels, but I am not sure how viable that country would be).
 
This looks hard. The main interest for the British during the Belgian revolt was to prevent Belgium (or at least the Belgian coastline) to become French. I am not certain if the British would accept a French king on the throne of Belgium, that would be too close to a French-Belgian union. You could of course have a different kind of Belgium not including the coastline (basicly just the Walloon parts of Belgium and Brussels, but I am not sure how viable that country would be).

Well, I was thinking that at the time, Britain is involved in a war with the USA and rapidly disintegrating relations with Russia, so cannot play the hand she had in OTL without risking an American-Russian-French coalition against her

Thanks very much for the comment !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Well, I was thinking that at the time, Britain is involved in a war with the USA and rapidly disintegrating relations with Russia, so cannot play the hand she had in OTL without risking an American-Russian-French coalition against her

Thanks very much for the comment !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

That would explain it pretty well.
 
I'm not too worried about "objective realism" as I am about "internal cohesion". Basically, the timeline needs to make sense in its own dynamics. Once things start, then sufficient butterflies can make things that were a vague possibility in OTL become more of a definite likelihood in this

For example, Mexico avoids war with the USA, recognises Texan independence and agrees to a Deseret under Mexican suzerainty... None of these are impossible, but the timeline needs to build up to why they become the probable. With regard to the odd-sounding latter one, its more or less what Britain imposed on the SAR/Transvaal in OTL, or even what the Ottomans had with the Rumanian Principalities - they manage themselves, but foreign relations are in Mexican hands. I also think Mexico would want Mormon Batallions as an auxiliary armed force, especially once Gold Fever hits California

By giving the USA earlier victories against Britain, I want to change the dynamics of their expansionism, and thus whilst the Pacific remains a goal, its served through all of Oregon etc

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
California Gold ?
Under Mexican sovereignty
The same for the Mormons
- independence in exchange for Mexican suzerainty (foreign affairs, service etc)

Intriguing. Who'd be the principal actors in a (maybe slightly delayed) gold rush in Mexican California? Mexicans? Americans? Immigrants?

I would like to take a step back and make the POD Iturbide retaining the Mexican throne - this would then have slow butterflies

Staying in Mexico in the first place? If so, I think we could safely give him a lifespan into the early 1840s.

Maybe Britain has it worse, and the Chartists are fighting against a reactionary goverment come to power in the wake of the 1830s defeats and setbacks

Radicalise them - with some monarchical/parliamentary mishandling - into something more along proto-Marxist lines! Actually, that's a good point: what happens to Marx ... does he still move to London in 1849? Would the chaos be ongoing? What effect does this have on his subsequent work?

- Greece is a state created to Russian plans, not a Bavarian kingdom

What would this do to Christian Orthodox politics? The status of the Copts in Egypt (see below)?

Its probably worth stepping back and looking at Egypt c 1840 and what became of that crisis in this timeline ?
Bourbon France is probably better placed than defeated now reactionary Britain
If Russia backs France, then Egypt will get her way
The Ottomans will have to accept defeat, lose Syria and Palestine permanently and accept Egyptian independence

Egyptian independence under whom? Butterfly the dynasty, and get Egypt to pull a Meiji under the auspices of the French!
 
IIRC the Russian plan for Greece was to make it on similar lines as Moldavia and Wallachia, with princes elected for periods of time as heads of state, from among the major families

Egypt would be under Mehmed Ali and his son Ibrahim, tho OTL they both died within a short while of each other at the end of the 1840s

- - -

Regarding Iturbide, my intention is for the victory his forces won against the initial rebels to be more complete, and include the deaths of Santa Anna and Guadeloupe Victoria. I've mislaid all details on this, as per my question in Help but I certainly remember it well !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Russia
- Afghanistan, Lahore, Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Kashgaria, Kalat



Indian Mutiny
- Russia supports the Mughals

= second Anglo-Russian War

I'm not sure about this. In 1857 Russia still didn't really have a land connection with British India so at best it could fund the Mughals a little bit, but I think sending an army to help is out of the question. Also, given the Crimean War was literally the year before, I think Russia would be too weary or wary of a repeat to want to rush into such a thing. Added on is the fact that the Indian Mutiny really wasn't an organised rebellion but a series of rebellions with independent ideas of how to promote their goals and such, and it was spontaneous so chances are Russian aid would appear too late to capitalise on the initial chaos. I think ultimately, even if the Russian aid is somehow forthcoming all that will happen is India will be pacified and then Britain will be able to turn on the Mughals as before, but with them warranting more of a response it will smack them down harder. I really can't see the Mughals or Russia actually gaining anything out of such a war. If they try to send troops, which is about the one way that the result of the mutiny could ultimately be in any doubt, then I suspect the only result will be Afghanistan and/or Persia (depending on which way they send the troops) falling definitively into the British camp, and we know from history that the Afghans have the capacity to annihilate columns of troops in their land...plus it would be virtually the end of the Great Game for Russia.
 
We continue to have a difference of opinion over Iturbide whom I see as getting Mexico off on the wrong foot. Big Time.

Suggestion #1: Have Iturbide not make the HUGE mistake of trying to compensate the departing Spaniards for the value of their land in hard currency. This made Mexico essentially bankrupt at birth and contributed to his unpopularity very soon.

Suggestion #2: Make Iturbide less dictatorial and so less unrest should happen.
 
True, I guess this has a lot of drawbacks which was why it was a bash-out, and I can see it probably won't work

Regarding the Crimean War, tho, I don't think I mentioned one, and I prefer to see the Indian Mutiny as an accumulation of tensions that eventually built up until there was a spark, so there can be one on or around the OTL date for different reasons

Didn't I also have Russia make advances in C Asia at an earlier point ?

Probably hard to tell since my initial thoughts were not in a linear fashion

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
True, I guess this has a lot of drawbacks which was why it was a bash-out, and I can see it probably won't work

Regarding the Crimean War, tho, I don't think I mentioned one, and I prefer to see the Indian Mutiny as an accumulation of tensions that eventually built up until there was a spark, so there can be one on or around the OTL date for different reasons

Didn't I also have Russia make advances in C Asia at an earlier point ?

Probably hard to tell since my initial thoughts were not in a linear fashion

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

How does a barely armed US manage a smash and grab against the most loyalist and easily defended parts of Canada? Especially since with the inability of Russia to exert pressure on Britain elsewhere at this time the following reaction would smash them back at least to the border while the rest of the American coast would be very vulnerable to the RN. Possibly I could see such a clash and a serious deterioration in relations as a result but not a big US victory. Furthermore the Americans would realise this so its unlikely they would risk such a conflict with an un-distracted Britain.

In the highly unlikely event of the US having such a success holding the territory is not difficult. They simply deport the population, which was their standard tactics with conquered populations.

Steve
 
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