1997: No Good Friday agrement

Tony Blair fails to broker a peace-deal in Northern Ireland. How would that affect his time as priminister?

How would no peace with IRA have affect UK after 9.11? If it happened is this timeline as well!

/Fred
 

hammo1j

Donor
This is one that Blair takes credit where it was perhaps not due to him.

Peace was down to following factors in order of importance

1. Lack of support after 9/11 from the US bankrolling the IRA.
2. Lack of interest in a Unified Ireland as RoI got richer and successful without the North and, anyway, they are both part of the EU.
3. Improved security measures.
4. NI Peace Movement
5. Lack of Soviet support.
6. Blair's initiatives.

Indeed, according to some Americans, Blair may have undermined the Peace process by granting concessions where no weapons were being surrendered.

Still he has to have something for his legacy.
 
The IRA were in serious trouble by the mid 1990's a combination of increased prosperity (and reduced unemployment), effective security measures and the growing realisation among the IRA that they couldn't win meant that even without Blair offering peace they would have declined anyway, though the would probably still be occasional Omagh style spectaculars added to the current standard gang activities, (protection rackets, smuggling, drugs, armed robbery)
 
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